latin america light vehicle outlook

Latin America—Light Vehicle Outlook

Guido VildozoManager, Latin America Junio 17, 2011

Agenda

• Economia Global

• Perspectiva Regional

• Brazil

• Mexico

• Argentina

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

• Argentina

• Resumen

(Percent change)

La Recuperacion Global Desacelera

0

5

10


-10

-5

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Real GDP Industrial Production

2

4

6

8

10

(Real GDP, percent change)

Los Mercados Emergentes Lideran la Expansion Global


-4

-2

0

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

World Advanced Countries Emerging Markets

4

5

6

(IHS Global Insight indexes, 2002:1=1)

Precios de Materiales Industriales

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

0

1

2

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

All Materials Chemicals Nonferrous Metals

Consumo Chino de Commodities (Percent of total world consumption)

CementIron Ore

CoalPigs

SteelLeadZinc

AluminumCopper


Source: Barclays Capital (2010), Credit Suisse (2010), Goldman Sachs, US Geological Survey (2009), BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2009), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (2008), IMF (2010)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CopperEggs

NickelRice

SoybeansWheat

ChickensPPP

OilCattleGDP

0%

5%

10%

15%

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Global Change

Sale

s in

Mill

ions

Year-O

ver-Y

ear C

hange

Ventas Globales


-10%

-5%

0

10

20

30

2008 2009 2010 Apr2011

Apr 2011 YTD

2011 2012 2013 2014

Sale

s in

Mill

ions

Year C

hange

• Las ventas globales en los primeros 4 meses del ano crecieron 5.4% sobre el 2010. Vemos ya unadesaceleracion apartir del mes de Marzo con 2.6% de crecimiento annual y 1.8% para el mes de Abril.

• Anticipamos 76 millones para este ano, un 5.5% de crecimiento comparado al 2010. Esto despues dereducir 600,000 unidades reflejando el impacto de Japon.

70

74

78

72.2Million

1.2Million

1.72Million

652,000

-610,000

282,000 119,000 245,000

-118,000

76.1Million428,000

Sale

s in

Mill

ions

Ventas Globales 2011


58

62

66

70

2009 2010 NorthAmerica

GreaterChina

SouthAsia

SouthAmerica

Japan/Korea

Middle East/Africa

Others Central/East

Europe

West Europe

2011

64Million

+5.5%

Sale

s in

Mill

ions

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Global Change

Pro

duction in

Mill

ions

Year-O

ver-Y

ear C

hange

Produccion Global


-15%

-10%

-5%

0

10

20

2008 2009 2010 Apr 2011

Apr 2011YTD

2Q 2011

2011 2012 2013 2014

Pro

duction in

Mill

ions

Year C

hange

• Los desastres naturales en Japon durante el mes de Marzo han impactado los volumenes de produccion delmes de Abril. Solo Japon registro una caida del 70% contra el 2010. El impacto seria mayor de no ser por elsolido performance de MERCOSUR y China.

Impacto en produccion Global en pronostico de Junio comparado a Marzoactualizado al 26 de Mayo, 2011 (000‘s)

1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 ForegoneVolume

Japan (488) (1,106) (463) 2 400 632 492 530

Korea 0 (11) 1 10 0 0 0 0

China (1) (339) 0 90 148 35 0 67

SE Asia (3) (277) (49) 129 201 0 0 0

NA (11) (456) (41) 82 225 163 0 37

Total—All OEMs


NA (11) (456) (41) 82 225 163 0 37

Europe (16) (215) (36) 104 153 12 0 0

Other (1) (26) (22) 13 34 0 0 0

Total LV (518) (2,430) (610) 430 1,161 842 492 635

Negative volumes are lost productionPositive volumes are recovered productionForegone volume due to demand destruction and lost Japan OEM market share

Perspectiva Regional


America Latina –PIB

Country/Five-year period

1991-

95

1996-

00

2001-

05

2006-

10

2011-

15

2016-

20

2021-

25

Argentina 6.0 2.6 2.0 6.6 4.4 4.0 3.8

Brazil 3.1 2.0 2.8 4.4 5.2 4.9 4.7

Chile 8.7 4.2 4.2 3.3 5.1 5.0 4.8


Colombia 4.6 0.9 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.7 4.5

Costa Rica 5.5 4.9 4.1 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.4

Ecuador 3.4 0.4 5.2 3.3 1.9 3.1 2.5

Mexico 1.8 5.4 1.5 1.8 3.8 3.9 3.8

Peru 5.5 2.5 4.2 7.2 5.7 5.1 4.6

Uruguay 3.9 2.2 0.2 6.3 4.0 3.3 3.3

Venezuela 3.4 0.7 2.5 3.4 3.2 3.9 3.4

Latin America & Caribbean 3.4 3.0 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.2

America Latina –Poblacion

(Millions of persons)1991-

952006-

102011-

152021-

25

Argentina 33.9 39.9 41.8 45.3

Brazil 156.9 191.9 200.0 212.0

Chile 13.9 16.8 17.6 18.9

Colombia 35.2 45.0 48.2 53.9


Colombia 35.2 45.0 48.2 53.9

Costa Rica 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.4

Ecuador 11.0 13.5 14.3 15.8

Mexico 87.2 108.5 113.6 121.9

Peru 23.1 28.8 30.5 33.9

Uruguay 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5

Venezuela 21.3 28.3 30.6 34.7

Latin America & Caribbean 465.0 575.7 606.4 659.7

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

Millo

nes

VEN

URY

PER

PAY

ECU

COL

Venta Regional por Pais-Volumen


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0COL

CHL

BRA

BOL

ARG

OPTIMISTIC

PESSIMISTIC

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

Millo

nes

VEN

URY

PER

ECU

COL

Produccion Regional por Pais-Volumen


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0 COL

CHL

BRA

ARG

OPTIMISTIC

PESSIMISTIC

Brazil


3

4

5

6

7

-2

0

2

4

6

8Real GDP Growth (%) Consumer Price Inflation (%)

Sumario Economico Brazil


3

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

*Annual average, **Billions of US dollars

-60

-40

-20

0

20

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-2

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Exchange Rate per USD* Current Account Balance**

20

25

30(US $ ,000)

PIB/Capita


0

5

10

15

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP per Capita

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0(LCU/US$)

Cambio Monetario


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

R$/US$

40,0

50,0

60,0(Percent)

SELIC – Tasas a Corto Plazo


0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SELIC

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0(Percent)

Tasa de Desempleo


0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Unemployment Rate

90

100

110

250

300

350

Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Empleo

Employment remains favourableEmployment remains favourable

Thousand Units


60

70

80

50

100

150

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LV Sales (left scale) Employment Index (right scale)

Ventas – Promedio Mensual vs Tasas de Financiamiento

20

25

30

35250

300

350 PercentThousand Units

Financing is a major driver, rates uncertainFinancing is a major driver, rates uncertain


40

45

50

55

6050

100

150

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LV Sales (left scale) APR Financing (right scale)

Impacto Historico de Empleo, Poblacion/Demografia y Tasas de Financiamiento en Brazil

.2

.314.0

14.4

14.8

15.2


-.3

-.2

-.1

.0

.1

.2

13.2

13.6

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Residual Actual Fitted

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0Million Units

Futuro promisorio gracias a credito y precios mas bajos

Perspectivas del Mercado Brasilero


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)

200,0

250,0

300,0

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00Million Units

Parque Automotor/Densidad

Units per ‘000


0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

Volume - L Market Share - R

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Percentage

Market Share de Vehiculos Ligeros

Big four continue to looseBig four continue to loose


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

OTHER CHERY NISSAN MITSUBISHI TOYOTA RENAULT HYUNDAI

HONDA PSA FORD GM VW GROUP FIAT GROUP

Big four continue to looseBig four continue to loose

3000

4000

5000

6000 US$ Millions

Inversion de la Industria Automotriz


0

1000

2000

3000

Investment OEMs Investment Suppliers

4,50

5,50

6,50

7,50

• 5 MM para el 2015 • Cuatro plantas nuevas: Hyundai, Toyota, Chery, Fiat

• 5 MM para el 2015 • Cuatro plantas nuevas: Hyundai, Toyota, Chery, Fiat

Million Units

Produccion: Inversiones Para AtenderDemanda de los proximos Diez Anos


0,50

1,50

2,50

3,50

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC

Perfil de Nuevos Productos (Regionales)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Fiat Strada 4 Uno, Bravo PalioSienna, Weekend,

StradaCity Car (Topolino) Uno, Punto, Linea

VW Saveiro, Fox Amarok Gol, Voyage, FoxUp, Saveiro, Parati/Polo SUV

Polo (Mex)

GM Agile Montana CruzeS-10; Blazer; Aveo,

GSV MPV, Spark

Spark Sedan Agile


Spark

FordFiesta, Fiesta 299

(MEX)Ecosport, Fiesta

HBA 299Ranger; Focus

Courier DropKa

PSAHoggar, C3

Picasso; 408 308 C3, 208 208 PUP EM CAR

Renault Fluence Duster; Kangoo Micra from MEX? Sandero Logan

Toyota Etios Corolla Hilux, Hilux SW4

Honda City Civic Brio Fit, City

Brazil Scorecard

Positivo:

• Estabilidad Economica

• Inversion Directa Extranjera

• Empleo

• Financiamiento

• Rentabilidad/Lucratividad

Riesgos:• Capacidad Ociosa en plantas• Falta de Capacidad del Sector

Autopartista• Infraestructura Ineficiente• Cambio de Moneda (Exportaciones)• Precio de Vehiculos Nuevos


• Rentabilidad/Lucratividad

• Hasta 84 Meses

• Reduccion de Tasas

• Cambio de Moneda (Importados)

• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria

• PIB per Capita

• Baja Densidad de Motorizacion

• Producto Nuevo

• Inversion de la Industria

• Riesgo de Credito Privado/PIB• Crecimiento Salarial vs Inflacion• Congestion Vehicular• Dependencia en commodities

Mexico


Sumario Economico Mexico

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

-10

-5

0

5



3.5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

10

11

12

13

14

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-10

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


12

14

16

18

20(US $ ,000)

PIB/Capita


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP per Capita

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0(LCU/US$)

Cambio Monetario


0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MP$/US$

40,0

50,0

60,0(Percent)

CETES – Tasas a Corto Plazo


0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CETES

4,0

5,0

6,0(Percent)

Tasa de Desempleo


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Unemployment Rate

60,00

70,00

80,00

90,00

100,00

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Fondos Para Creditos Durables

Credit is limiting momentumCredit is limiting momentum

Thousand Units Billion Pesos


0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

700

750

800

850

900

950

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LV Sales (left scale) Credit Durable Goods

100

110

120

1000

1100

1200

Ventas — Promedio Mensual vs. Indice de Confianza del Consumidor

Thousand Units Index


70

80

90

700

800

900

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

10%

20%

30%

Perspectivas del Mercado Mexicano

Units

Used car imports and credit availability limit growth


600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Light Veh -L Annual Change -R

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Millions



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019OTHER SUZUKI MITSUBISHI DAIMLER AG RENAULT

MAZDA HONDA TOYOTA CHRYSLER LLC FORD

VW GROUP GM NISSAN

Perfil de Nuevos Productos

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GM Sonic, 9-4C2 Drop, Entry

CUVSilverado, Sierra,

GraniteCaptiva, SRX,

Anthem, 9-4

VW Jetta Beetle Beetle Cabrio Polo MQB Jetta MQB

Nissan Micra/TiidaSentra, Note,

NV200Frontier


NV200

Ford Fiesta Fusion, MKZ B-CUV Fiesta

Chrysler 500 Freemont Ram Van B-CUV Journey

Toyota Tacoma Yaris

Honda CR-V

Hyundai Accent

Argentina


0

5

10

15

0

2

4

6

8


Sumario Economico Argentina


0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


-5

0

5

10

15

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


10

12

14

16

18(US $ ,000)

PIB/Capita


0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP per Capita

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0(LCU/US$)

Cambio Monetario


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

AP$/US$

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0(Percent)

Inflacion


-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CPI

10,0

15,0

20,0(US $ Billion)

Balanza Comercial


-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Trade Balance

Ventas: Promedio Mensual vs Indice de Confianza del Consumidor

55

60

65

70

60

75

90PercentThousand Units


30

35

40

45

50

0

15

30

45

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Sentiment (right scale)

Consumer sentiment is recovering… so are sales Consumer sentiment is recovering… so are sales

Ventas: Promedio Mensual vsExportaciones

5

6

7

8

60

75

90Billion US $Thousand Units


1

2

3

4

5

0

15

30

45

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

LV Sales (left scale) Exports (Right)

Exports impact economic momentum immediately Exports impact economic momentum immediately

Mejores Inidicadores son CrecimientoEconomico, Poblacion/Demografia y BalanzaComercial

.4

.6

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5


-.8

-.6

-.4

-.2

.0

.2

.4

11.0

11.5

12.0

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Residual Actual Fitted

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6Million Units

Escenario positivo basado en exportaciones y credito

Perspectivas del Mercado Argentino


0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)

250,0

300,0

350,0

400,0

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00Million Units

Parque Automotor/Densidad

Units per ‘000


0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

Volume - L Market Share - R

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Percentage


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

OTHER DAIMLER AG CHERY HYUNDAI NISSAN HONDA TOYOTA

FORD RENAULT FIAT GROUP GM PSA VW GROUP

Asians evolveAsians evolve

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Comportamiento de Segmentos para CarrosPasajeros

Percentage


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

N/K MPV-C MPV-B F1 E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B A

No news is good newsNo news is good news

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Comportamiento de Segmentos paraComerciales Ligeros

SUV-C is a segment busterSUV-C is a segment buster

Percentage


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

SUV-E SUV-D SUV-C SUV-B PUP-D PUP-C PUP-B N/K MVAN MPV-D MIC CDV

SUV-C is a segment busterSUV-C is a segment buster

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

• Capacity is 1 million • Honda has only new plant (Campana)

• Capacity is 1 million • Honda has only new plant (Campana)

Million Units

Produccion: Inversiones que Complementanel Crecimiento de MERCOSUR


0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Light Vehicle Production Capacity OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC

Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen

2010

Local Imp. Total

A-Segment Car 0 16,890 16,890

A-Segment LCV 0 0 0

A-Segment MPV 0 0 0

A-Segment Pickup 0 0 0

A-Segment SUV 0 0 0

TOTAL 0 16,890 16,890

% 0.0% 100.0%

2010

Local Imp. Total

B-Segment Car 129,449 203,833 333,282

B-Segment LCV 0 7,562 7,562

B-Segment MPV 0 9,291 9,291

B-Segment Pickup 0 7,858 7,858

B-Segment SUV 0 21,596 21,596

TOTAL 129,449 250,140 379,589

% 34.1% 65.9%


Segmento ASegmento A

Segmento CSegmento C Segmento DSegmento D

Segmento BSegmento B

2010

Local Imp. Total

C-Segment Car 31,812 61,342 93,154

C-Segment LCV 28,807 0 28,807

C-Segment MPV 2,098 12,483 14,581

C-Segment Pickup 0 0 0

C-Segment SUV 0 13,829 13,829

TOTAL 62,717 87,654 150,371

% 41.7% 58.3%

2010

Local Imp. Total

D-Segment Car 13 10,546 10,559

D-Segment LCV 0 214 214

D-Segment MPV 0 4,302 4,302

D-Segment Pickup 0 0 0

D-Segment SUV 0 7,627 7,627

TOTAL 13 22,689 22,702

% 0.1% 99.9%

Ventas de Vehiculos por Segmento e Origen

2010

Local Imp. Total

CompactFF Car 0 0 0

CompactFF LCV 0 2,077 2,077

CompactFF MPV 0 0 0

CompactFF Pickup 38,232 12,379 50,611

CompactFF SUV 2,017 789 2,806

TOTAL 40,249 15,245 55,494

% 72.5% 27.5%

2010

Local Imp. Total

FullSizeFF Car 0 0 0

FullSizeFF LCV 3,105 4,063 7,168

FullSizeFF MPV 0 0 0

FullSizeFF Pickup 0 2,581 2,581

FullSizeFF SUV 0 0 0

TOTAL 3,105 6,644 9,749

% 31.8% 68.2%


Compact BOFCompact BOF Fullsize BOFFullsize BOF

Argentina Scorecard

Pluses:

• Economia en repunte

• Financiamiento

• Commodities

• Mayor exportador de oro

• Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas

Minuses:

• Inflacion

• Confianza del Consumidor

• Elecciones

• Cambio de Moneda (Importados)

• Demografias

• Crecimiento de la Poblacion


• Estabilizacion de Finanzas Publicas

• Infraestructura (Energia)

• Empleo

• Cambio de moneda (Exportaciones)

• Apoyo Gubernamental a la Industria

• Nueva gama de productos

• Inversion de las terminales

• Crecimiento de la Poblacion

• Motorizacion

• Dependencia en commodities

Muchas Gracias por vuestraatencion!

Guido Vildozo


Guido VildozoManager, Latin AmericaJunio 17, [email protected]

latin america light vehicle outlook

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