The Internet as a Factor of Participation in Protests: Cross Country Analysis

Kirkizh Eleonora Higher School of Economics (SPb)

Structure • Theory • Hypothesis • Data and Method • Results • Conclusions • Further research

Theory Theory of Information Society The direct link between politics, media and the crisis of political legitimacy in a global perspective. The development of interactive, horizontal networks of communication has induced the rise of a new form of communication, mass self-communication, over the Internet and wireless communication networks. (Castells, 2007)

Discussion Protesters in Northern African and Middle East countries have been using social networks for coordination and information exchange. (Breuer, 2012) Using Facebook or Twitter, citizens created groups where they posted news, calls, announcements and other items concerning protests. (Gaffney, 2009) Protests in Chile, Iran, Belgium, Spain and the Arab countries. (Lotan, 2011, González-Bailón, 2013)

Hypothesis

H1: Probability of protest participation of citizens is more if they use the Internet as a information resource. (Howard, 2010)

H2: Probability of protest participation is higher if a citizen (unemployed, middle income, has political interest, well educated) uses the Internet as a information resource. (Gaffney, 2009, Wolfsfeld, 2012, Korotaev, 2013)

Data and Method World Value Survey, wave 6 (2011-2013)

Countries: 42 Individuals: over 42,000

Variables: •  Dependent: protest participation

•  Independent: employment status, age, confidence: the government, income, information recourse: Internet, friends, post materialist index

(4-item), age, education, religiosity, political view. •  Group level variable: country Method: GLMM

Coefficient St. Error internet (yes) 0.421*** (0.036) friends (yes) 0.314*** (0.044) education high low

–0.273*** –0.620***

(0.046) (0.048)

politics (yes) 0.739*** (0.032) post materialist mixed post

0.275*** 0.694***

(0.036) (0.050)

religious (yes) –0.187*** (0.040) age mid young

–0.301*** –0.440***

(0.036) (0.048)

employment (yes) –0.104* (0.057) views mixed right

–0.564*** –0.561***

(0.036) (0.038)

Observations 44,146 Pseudo R-squared 0.140

Regression results Model 1

Note:  *p<0.1;  **p<0.05;  ***p<0.01  

Model 1 Model 1* Internet friends (yes) 0.314***

(0.044) –0.076  (0.088)  

education (high) –0.273*** (0.046)

–0.205*  (0.094)  

politics (yes) 0.739*** (0.032)

0.114  (0.061)  

post materialist (mixed) 0.275*** (0.036)

0.224  (0.087)  

religious (yes) –0.187*** (0.040)

0.056  (0.075)  

age (mid) –0.301*** (0.036)

0.054 (0.058)

employment (yes) –0.104* (0.057)

–0.317** (0.111)

views (mixed) –0.564*** (0.036)

–0.571*** (0.036)

Observations 44,146 Pseudo R-squared 0.140

Regression results Model 1 Model 1* with interactive effects

Note:  *p<0.1;  **p<0.05;  ***p<0.01  

Conclusions Individual level •  The average regression coefficient for the Internet use across 42 countries equals 0.42. The

probability of whether a citizen, reading news on the Internet, joins a protest is 52% higher than if he/she does not.

•  Different interactive effects. Mostly the Internet is not a significant factor. Group level •  The effect of the Internet is positive in most countries. Only in three states – Japan, Kazakhstan

and Peru – the effect is negative. •  In other countries usage of the Internet turns to be a significant positive predictor. However,

coefficients of the effects among them vary vastly: from 0.1 to 0.8. •  Four groups of the countries with the lowest effect of the Internet to the highest effect. The highest

coefficients (0.7–0.8) were observed in the following countries: Chile, Colombia, Ghana, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Pakistan.

Further research

• Analysis with group level variables (the Internet penetration, GDP, Human Rights Risk Index, Corruption Rate etc.)