kikkoman - waseda university · 2 about kikkoman kikkoman corporation is the soy sauce maker which...
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KIKKOMAN
2
About KIKKOMAN
Kikkoman Corporation is
the Soy Sauce Maker
which is established in 1917.
Domestic 56%
Overseas 44%
Kikkoman’s Sales
Stock Rating
Current Stock Price(7/21):¥860
Target Stock Price:¥799
→7.6% Downside
with Discounted Cash Flow method
“SELL”
RECOMENDATION
Summery of the Reason
SELL Target Price:799yen
Current Price:860yen
Shrinking Soy Sauce Market
in Domestic , in Overseas
Strategies Don’t Work as expected
Business Description
Overseas Domestic
Soy Sauce
Soy Sauce
Derivative Products
Others
Soy Sauce
Foods
Wholesale
Soy Sauce
Soy Sauce
Derivative Products
Soy Sauce
Core of the Profit since their inception
Has a top share for a long time in Japan
high
technological
capability
strong
brand-name
BUT
Shrinking of Soy Sauce Market →the profit of this division
has been decreasing since 2008
Domestic Soy Sauce Division
(%)
-0.20%
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Growth Rate of Population in Japan
Source: Statistical Handbook of Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Per-capita Amount of
Soy Sauce Consumption in Japan (L)
Population decreases
&
The demand of soy sauce decreases
→Sales also decreases
Source: Soy Sauce Information Center
Forecast Sales of Soy Sauce (million)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
forecast
People want to cook quickly efficiently
with Soy sauce derivative products
Soy Sauce Derivative Products Division
Trying not to spend many hours on cooking
Want to increase own time by saving time to cook
Save the effort of cooking by using instant food and frozen food
Trying to cook a dish with an easy cleanup
Use one-person retort food and daily dish for one person
Source: R&D corporation data base
Market Share
Yamaki 51%
Mizkan 11%
Yamasa 7%
Ninben 5%
Kikkoman 4%
Momoya 2%
Yamamori 2%
Others 18%
Ebara 51%
Kikkoman 11% Nihon
Shokken
7%
Moranbon 5%
Jojoen 4%
Daisyo 2%
Gyukaku 2%
Others 18%
Market Shere of Tsuyu in 2008 Market Shere of Tare in 2008
Source : Food Trend Book
Forecast Soy Sauce Derivative Products
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
forecast
(million)
7 production bases
V
V
Overseas
Wisconsin
California
Hebei
Taiwan
Chiangsu
Singapore
Holland
単位:百万円)
Overseas Soy Sauce Sales Volume
North
America
83%
Europe
10%
Asia 7%
Source : Kikkoman Data
1.The soy sauce diffusion rate to the home exceeded 50%.
2.The increase of the volume of sales growth rate for 10
years is 2.6% and it isn’t rapid any more.
単位:百万円)
Overseas Soy Sauce Sales Volume
North
America
83%
Europe
10%
Asia 7%
Source : Kikkoman Data
The percentage of that Europe occupies in the sales of
Kikkoman is small.
→ The good impact will be also small.
単位:百万円)
Overseas Soy Sauce Sales Volume
North
America
83%
Europe
10%
Asia 7%
Source : Kikkoman Data
There are too many competitors.
→ It is hard to get market share for Kikkoman.
17
Sales Forecast (Overseas Soy Sauce Division)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Asia
Europe
North America
forecast (million)
Stock Rating
18
Current Stock Price(7/21):¥860
Target Stock Price:¥799
→7.6% Downside
with Discounted Cash Flow method
“SELL”
RECOMENDATION
Summary
Shrinking Domestic
soy sauce market
Enter into
Tsuyu and Tare
market In Domestic
Expand into
Global market
with Soy Sauce
THANK YOU
China 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average
Wealthy persons
320000 345000 415035 364000 477400 534500 ―
A rate of Increase
7.81% 20.30% -12.30% 31.15% 11.96% ― 11.79%
Net sales in Asia and
Oceania
2018.03 2273.67 2523.78 2730 2584.47 2543.66 2461.27
The growth rate of net
sales in Asia
11.00% 8.17% -5.33% -1.58% -3.24% 1.80%
We think
Net Sales in China Don’t Increase
as Expected
Net Sales in China Don’t Increase
as Expected
It is said generally that Chinese people are conservative about food.
Even if wealthy people increase, per-capita amount of soy sauce
consumption don’t increase rapidly.
There are many rivals in China.
Kikkoman’s soy sauce is quite different from Chinese soy sauce.
They can’t get market share easily.
Chinese market will not large
as people expected
25
We Think Europe Market
Will Increase
In Europe, there are many wealthy people as compared
with in Asia.
The boom in Japanese food spread in Europe.
26
Europe
Production Base Nether lands (Sappemeer)
Sales teritory U.S(London)、Germany
Main market of Europe US , Netherlands , Germany , Switzerland , Norway, Poland, Sweden
There are not production bases and Sales territories in main market ,
Switzerland, Norway, Poland and Sweden, in 2011
however, average 9.78% in latest 5 years, so we expect the market of
Europe will grow if build more production and sale basis
We think Europe Market
will increase
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
• North US Sales of Soy Source (Fact)
• =Overseas Sales of Soy Source (Fact)× The Rate of North US Sales to Overseas
Sales of Soy
• Source (Fact)
• North US Soy Source Market Size(Fact)
• =North US Sales of Soy Source(Fact)÷KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy Source Market
Share(Fact)
• North US Soy Source Market Size ( Anticipation )
• = North US Soy Source Market Size of the previous year(Fact)×Market Growth
Rate(Anticipation)
• North US Sales of Soy Source( Anticipation )
• = North US Soy Source Market Size ( Anticipation )× KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy
Source Market Share( Anticipation )
• Overseas Sales of Soy Source( Anticipation )
• = North US Sales of Soy Source ( Anticipation )÷The Rate of North US Sales to
Overseas Sales of Soy Source( Anticipation )
28 2012/6/8 フッター
※ The Rate of North US Sales to Overseas Sales of Soy Source
( Anticipation )
・ ・・ The average for the latest 5 years
※ KIKKOMAN’s North US Soy Source Market Share ( Anticipation )
・・・ The average for the latest 5 years
※ North US Soy Source Market Growth Rate ( Anticipation )
・・・ The average for the latest 5 years
29 2012/6/8 フッター
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
◆海外醤油売上
• キ・北米の売上高(実)=キ・海外醤油売上高(実)×キ・海外醤油事業に占める北米での売上割合(実)
• 北米の市場規模(実)=キ・北米の売上高(実)÷北米市場でのキ・シェア(実)
• 北米の市場規模(予)=前年の市場規模(実)×市場成長率(予)
• キ・北米の売上高(予)=北米の市場規模(予)×北米でのキ・シェア(予)
• キ・海外醤油売上高(予)=キ・北米の売上高(予)÷キ・海外醤油事業に占める北米での売上割合(予)
※海外醤油に占める北米での売上割合(予)・・・直近5年の平均
※北米でのシェア(予)・・・直近5年の平均
※北米の市場成長率(予)・・・直近5年の平均 (成熟市場、頭打ちなため)
30 2012/6/8 フッター
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
• Europe Sales of Soy Source(Fact)
• = Overseas Sales of Soy Source (Fact)× The Rate of Europe Sales to
Overseas Sales of Soy
• Source (Fact)
• Europe Sales of Soy Source ( Anticipation )
= Europe Sales of Soy Source of the previous year(Fact)× Europe Soy
Source Market Growth Rate(Anticipation)
• Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source (Fact)
• = Overseas Sales of Soy Source(Fact)×The Rate of Asia Oceania Sales to
Overseas Sales of
• Soy Source(Fact)
• Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source ( Anticipation )
• = Asia Oceania Sales of Soy Source of the previous year(Fact)× Asia
Oceania Soy Source Market Growth Rate(Anticipation)
31 2012/6/8 フッター
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
※ Europe Soy Source Market Growth Rate ( Anticipation )
・・・ The average for the latest 5 years
※ Asia Oceania Soy Source Market Growth Rate ( Anticipation )
・・・ The average for the latest 5 years
32 2012/6/8 フッター
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
• 欧州の売上高(実)=海外の醤油売上高(実)×欧州での売上割合(実)
• 欧州の売上高(予)=前年の欧州売上高(実)×欧州での売上高成長率(予)
• アジア・オセアニアの売上高(実)=海外の醤油売上高(実)×アジア・オセアニアでの売上割合(実)
• アジア・オセアニアの売上高(予)=前年のアジア・オセアニア売上高(実)×アジア・オセアニアでの売上高成長率(予)
※欧州での売上高成長率(予)・・・直近5年の平均
(現在の生産拠点:オランダのみ、 販売拠点:ロンドン、ドイツのみ→でも直近5年で平均9.8%成長
北欧(主要市場)に拠点がない・イタリア・フランス・スペインなどまだまだ開拓の余地あり、
現地r料理に合ったレシピも考案中、欧州は割と高所得層→キッコーマン商品でも高級品にならない?
⇒今度も2ケタ成長に近い成長が見込まれると判断)
※アジア・オセアニアでの売上高成長率(予)・・・直近5年の平均
(中国の直近5年の平均富裕層増加率:11.8%→2002年から中国進出しているにもかかわらず直近5
年の売上高成長率が1.8%のため、富裕層の増加に関わらず今後も大きな伸びはないと判断)
33 2012/6/8 フッター
Overseas Sales of Soy Source
34 2012/6/8 フッター
Domestic sales of Soy Sauce
Prediction of the shipping quantity of soy sauce
= The rate of change of a per capita annual soy sauce amount of
consumption Soy sauce in Japan(5 years average)
× A population growth rate of Japan (5 years average)
× Soy sauce shipping quantity of the previous year
Prediction of market size (amount of money) = the shipping quantity (liter) x soy
sauce unit price (2010) of soy sauce
1 liter of soy sauce unit price = the soy sauce shipment of soy sauce sales /
KIKKOMAN of KIKKOMAN
Prediction of the domestic soy sauce sales of KIKKOMAN = a share (2010) of
market size prediction x KIKKOMAN
The soy sauce shipment of KIKKOMAN = The market share (2010) x soy sauce
shipment of KIKKOMAN
35 2012/6/8 フッター
Domestic sales of Soy Sauce
しょうゆの出荷数量(リットル)の予測=日本人の一人当たり年間消費量の変化率の過去5年平均×日本の人口成長率の過去5年平均×前年のしょうゆ出荷数量
市場規模(金額)の予測=しょうゆの出荷数量(リットル)×しょうゆ単価(2010)
しょうゆ1リットル単価=キッコーマンのしょうゆ売上÷キッコーマンのしょうゆ出荷量
キッコーマンのしょうゆ出荷量=キッコーマンの市場シェア(2010)×しょうゆ出荷量
キッコーマンの国内しょうゆ売上の予測=市場規模予測×キッコーマンのシェア(2010)
Domestic Soy Sauce Derivative Products
• Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare market size
= The rate of change of growth of Tsuyu and Tare market (5 years average)
×Sales of the previous year
・ Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare sales of KIKKOMAN
=Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare market size
×market share of kikkoman (2010)
・ Sales Prediction of the kikkoman soy sauce derivative division
= Prediction of the Tsuyu and Tare sales of KIKKOMAN/ The rate of Tsuyu and Tare in
Kikkoman’s Soy Sauce Derivative Products division(2010)
36 2012/6/8 フッター
国内しょうゆ関連予想
37 2012/6/8 フッター
つゆ・たれ市場規模の予測=つゆ・たれ市場成長率の過去5年平均×前年のつゆ・たれ売上高
キッコーマンのつゆ・たれ売上予測=つゆ・たれ市場規模の予測×キッコーマンのシェア2010
キッコーマンのしょうゆ関連事業の売上予想=
キッコーマンのつゆ・たれ売上予想/キッコーマンのしょうゆ関連事業におけるつゆたれの割合(2010)