KEY FACTORS IN KEY FACTORS IN THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF COMPUTINGCOMPUTINGin the Government Enterprise

Lewis ShepherdChief Technology Officer

Microsoft Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments

““What technologies What technologies will be required will be required

over the next 10 years over the next 10 years to protect U.S. to protect U.S.

interests?” interests?”

An Exercise in Prediction, with An Exercise in Prediction, with thetheIntelligence Community as an Intelligence Community as an ExampleExample

What if we had asked that What if we had asked that question, question,

10 years ago10 years ago? ?

““Asymmetric adversary” = an information Asymmetric adversary” = an information challenge (“hard target”)challenge (“hard target”)

Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods for Seeming irrelevance of traditional methods for new targetsnew targets

- Order of battle (counting military elements)Order of battle (counting military elements)- State-to-state analysisState-to-state analysis- “ “Kremlinological” approaches Kremlinological” approaches

Challenges of IT during wartimeChallenges of IT during wartime- Stress on systems infrastructure of 2 wars Stress on systems infrastructure of 2 wars - Stress on software (link-analysis, SNA, “search”)Stress on software (link-analysis, SNA, “search”)- Stress on collection capacity (sensor grids, Internet)Stress on collection capacity (sensor grids, Internet)- Stress on analysts’ – and technologists’ – Stress on analysts’ – and technologists’ – imaginationimagination

Some Surprises Some Surprises Post-9/11Post-9/11

Limits of “Search” for Prediction Limits of “Search” for Prediction

We don’t have a We don’t have a “Search” “Search” capability to reach capability to reach inside enemy inside enemy minds … yetminds … yet

We don’t have a We don’t have a “Search” “Search” capability to reach capability to reach inside enemy inside enemy minds … yetminds … yet

IT Challenge: Low-Observable IT Challenge: Low-Observable AdversaryAdversary

Our databases had no fields for box-cutters, IM accountsOur databases had no fields for box-cutters, IM accounts

How does THIS … … help perform analysis on THIS?

How does THIS … … help perform analysis on THIS?

Case Study: Intelligence Case Study: Intelligence CommunityCommunity

The IC’s post-9/11 challenge

Some identified solutions:

1. Grid/Cloud computing

2. Secure SOA platform

3. Web 2.0 tools

(Intellipedia, A-Space)

Implementation challenges

What Drives the Future of Enterprise What Drives the Future of Enterprise ComputingComputing

The value for a new user of a service depends on the number of existing users of the service…

“Critical mass” can lead to “Bandwagon effect”…

Side-Effects of Network EffectSide-Effects of Network Effect

Exponential growth of networks, systems

Requires Scale

Exposes networks to “edge audiences”

Requires Security

Derives new wisdom from growing “crowd”

Makes Smart Systems

Scale

Scale: a Challenge for Large Commercial Scale: a Challenge for Large Commercial EnterprisesEnterprises

“Government No Exception”

Remote Office Remote Office IT ScenariosIT Scenarios

No InfrastructureNo Infrastructure

Microsoft Inc. as an Enterprise Microsoft Inc. as an Enterprise ExampleExample

435 million unique users435 million unique users

6 billion instant 6 billion instant messages (IMs) per daymessages (IMs) per day

280 billion page views per 280 billion page views per dayday

29 billion E-mails sent 29 billion E-mails sent per day per day

141,000 end users141,000 end users

260,000 computers260,000 computers

550 Buildings in 98 550 Buildings in 98 countries countries

358,000 SharePoint sites358,000 SharePoint sites

2,500 internal applications 2,500 internal applications

2,500,000 internal E-mails 2,500,000 internal E-mails per dayper day18,000,000 incoming E-18,000,000 incoming E-mails per day (97% filter)mails per day (97% filter)

136,000 E-mail Server 136,000 E-mail Server accounts accounts

1,000,000 remote 1,000,000 remote connections per monthconnections per month

Defense Intelligence Agency Defense Intelligence Agency as an Enterprise Exampleas an Enterprise Example

One of 16 agencies in the Intelligence Community

9,000+ personnel

DIA IT systems support the entire intelligence community

100,000+ users of DIA’s Top Secret network, apps, data

Global reach through IT support of all DoD Commands

Pacific Command, European Command, etc.

The only true “all-source” agency in the IC

Collection (signals intell, human intell,

measurements & signatures, etc)

The Challenge: Stovepiped Analytic The Challenge: Stovepiped Analytic CapabilitiesCapabilities

Security

The Security Side of “Enterprise The Security Side of “Enterprise 2.0”2.0”

Secret to a Walled Garden: ControlSecret to a Walled Garden: Control

Definition: On the Internet, a walled garden is an environment that controls the

user's access to Web content and services. In effect, the walled garden

directs the user's navigation within particular areas, to allow access to a

selection of material, or prevent access to other material. [SearchSecurity.com]

Why Walled-Garden Content & Why Walled-Garden Content & Systems?Systems?

Rationale on the Internet: Money Paid-Access Content Revenue Member-Fee Revenue Exclusive Ad Revenue (Segmented Eyeballs) Value of Intellectual Property

“Enterprise” Rationale: Security Trade Secrets in Operational Data Competitive Advantages Regulatory Control over Data

“Government No Exception”

Smart Systems

Need for Analytic ReformNeed for Analytic Reform

Traditional IC output: ~50,000 stand-alone reports/year Many redundancies Produced in agency/organization silos Lack of collaborative capabilities across (and within)

agencies “Intelink” (the IC-wide shared domain) seen as a backlot

Forcing Function: 9/11 Commission Report Key Recommendation: From Need-to-Know to Need-to-

Share!

Realization: “Something that’s 80 percent accurate, on-time, and sharable, is better than something that is perfectly formatted, but too much, too late, and over-classified.”

Chris Rasmussen, NGA

Birth Pangs of IC Web 2.0: 2004-Birth Pangs of IC Web 2.0: 2004-20052005 Early Efforts were internal, agency-specific projects

CIA’s internal blogs, 2004 DIA’s internal “IntelliPedia” wiki, 2004 NGA’s internal blogs, early 2005 DIA’s AJAX mashups in “Lab X,” 2004-05 CIA’s del.ici.ous lookalike, Tag/Connect, 2005

A “Wisdom of Crowds” Culture was forming by 2005 Joint trips to outside conferences Cross-agency collaboration on metadata tagging Formation of “IC Enterprise Services” group, or ICES

Tipping Points, sparked by ICES: August 2005 launch of “Intelink Blogs” April 2006 launch of IC-wide Intellipedia

One thing we learned wiki-wiki…One thing we learned wiki-wiki…

Key Distinctions, Intellipedia vs Key Distinctions, Intellipedia vs WikipediaWikipedia

Business Practices of intelligence analysis & reporting demanded certain technical features:

Not open to the public, only users with access to the IC’s Top Secret network (JWICS), accounts created by ICES.

No anonymity. All edits and additions are traceable.

Intellipedia does not enforce a “neutral point of view” Actually intended to represent various points of view; viewpoints are attributed to the agencies, offices, and individuals participating Consensus may or may not emerge!

Intellipedia’s Hockey-Stick GrowthIntellipedia’s Hockey-Stick Growth

The Top-Secret Wiki Gets ClonedThe Top-Secret Wiki Gets Cloned

Summer 2007, ICES introduced 2 new Intellipedia versions:

• One on the SECRET network “SIPRNET” • One on a “Sensitive But Unclassified” network “DNI(U)”

(a protected trunk apart from the regular Internet)

Rationale:• Many military intelligence analysts (and most soldiers)

only have access to SIPRNET• Many DHS personnel and Law Enforcement have no

clearances whatsoever for classified information• Many IC personnel like to work at home on research

and topical news items

Walled Gardens Within Walled Gardens: Walled Gardens Within Walled Gardens: Relative Value of Classified InformationRelative Value of Classified Information

Relative Number of Users,Also Relative Volume of Data

Relative Growth in Intellipedia Pages

Anticipate a Network Effect for Anticipate a Network Effect for DNI(U)?DNI(U)?

Expect increasing rates of growth for DNI(U) usage and information sharing

Improved realtime Internet data-mining Awareness of value of collaboration

outside traditional IC boundaries (DHS, LE, foreign partners)

Improved Web 2.0 tools deployed on DNI(U) to mirror those on JWICS and the Internet

Intellipedia Totals on All Three NetworksIntellipedia Totals on All Three Networks

64,782 users2.3 million edits

Bottom Line: Knowledge Work is Bottom Line: Knowledge Work is Universal Universal

New IC Focus: New IC Focus: “Analytic Transformation”“Analytic Transformation”

Launched by ODNI, April 2007 Both “analysis” side and “techie” side DDNI/A and DNI CIO are the two project owners

Several key programs: Community-wide “IC Data Layer” to aggregate

access to “all” databases (no one knows the true number)

A-Space, a16-agency “collaborative environment for analysis”

DNI assigned job of ICDL and A-Space to DIA on behalf of full IC - because of our SOA work

DIA’s Alien: DIA’s Alien: AlAll-Source l-Source IIntelligence ntelligence EnEnvironmentvironment

SOA Planning Begun 2005SOA Planning Begun 2005: Full web-services : Full web-services frameworkframework

Alien is a framework, not a single toolAlien is a framework, not a single tool

Reliant on globally networked set of data centersReliant on globally networked set of data centers

New best-of-breed analytic software New best-of-breed analytic software

Alien data services – tying data togetherAlien data services – tying data together

Message traffic and other text sourcesMessage traffic and other text sources

Traditional single-INT databasesTraditional single-INT databases

Integrated security architecture Integrated security architecture for single sign-onfor single sign-on

Alien allows tools to exploit semantically-enhanced Alien allows tools to exploit semantically-enhanced datadata

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METS: Metadata Extraction & Tagging Service

“Black-box Tagging Factory” combines 13 separate best-of-breed entity-identifiers, natural-language processors, disambiguators, tagging engines.

Key Desired Features of A-SpaceKey Desired Features of A-Space

Wikis, blogs, social networking, personalized RSS feeds, collaborative cloud-based word processing, mash-ups, and content tagging…

… all built atop an underlying SOA.

A-Space: think “iGoogle,” “Live A-Space: think “iGoogle,” “Live Spaces”Spaces”

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Metrics (a key post-9/11 Metrics (a key post-9/11 recommendation)recommendation)

A-Space Pilot Schedule: Bridge Too A-Space Pilot Schedule: Bridge Too Far?Far?

Pilot Awarded Sep 14, 2007 Pilot Development and Integration Sep 14-Nov 23,

2007 Pilot Development Freeze Nov 23, 2007 Integration Testing and IPAT Nov 26-30, 2007 Functional Testing (Approved Users) Dec 3-

7, 2007 Final Clean Up Dec 10-12, 2007 C&A DIA* Dec 13-14, 2007 C&A DNI* Dec 17-19, 2007 Installation at DIA’s main Data Center Dec 20-

28, 2007 Prototype available to IC users Dec 31, 2007

Time overrunsBudget overrunsIncomplete featuresIncomplete functions

Cancelled prior to completionAbandoned

Source: CIO Executive Board research; Standish Group 2004 CHAOS Report

On timeOn budgetDesired featuresDesired functions

Average IT Project SuccessAverage IT Project Success

Lesson: Many Enterprise IT Projects Fall Short of Expectations

“Government No Exception”

Other Government Examples: Other Government Examples: epa.wik.isepa.wik.is

http://epa.wik.is/

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epa.wik.is goes mashup bigtimeepa.wik.is goes mashup bigtime

Extensibility: Integration with Yahoo!, Windows Live, Google, Flickr, WidgetBox, YouTube, and much more.

“Data reuse in mashups will revolutionize EPA data architecture, data management, and data reuse applications!”

EPA Architect Brand Niemann

Near-Future IT Enablers for the ICNear-Future IT Enablers for the IC

Semantic Web Semantic Web - Global all-source system - Global all-source system enabling rich ontological information enabling rich ontological information managementmanagement

autonomously and presumptively alerting autonomously and presumptively alerting analystsanalysts automatically populating knowledge basesautomatically populating knowledge bases cueing other military and IT systems cueing other military and IT systems

GIGINT GIGINT - ability to mine and control the Global - ability to mine and control the Global Information Grid without human intervention, Information Grid without human intervention, including the billions of sensor/ including the billions of sensor/ RFID/nano/autonomous devices communicating RFID/nano/autonomous devices communicating with the Grid. with the Grid.

Gartner: By 2013, more than 200 billion Gartner: By 2013, more than 200 billion processors will be in daily use around the processors will be in daily use around the worldworld

Semantic Web Semantic Web - Global all-source system - Global all-source system enabling rich ontological information enabling rich ontological information managementmanagement

autonomously and presumptively alerting autonomously and presumptively alerting analystsanalysts automatically populating knowledge basesautomatically populating knowledge bases cueing other military and IT systems cueing other military and IT systems

GIGINT GIGINT - ability to mine and control the Global - ability to mine and control the Global Information Grid without human intervention, Information Grid without human intervention, including the billions of sensor/ including the billions of sensor/ RFID/nano/autonomous devices communicating RFID/nano/autonomous devices communicating with the Grid. with the Grid.

Gartner: By 2013, more than 200 billion Gartner: By 2013, more than 200 billion processors will be in daily use around the processors will be in daily use around the worldworld

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Virtual WorldsVirtual Worlds

New methods of modeling, simulation, and collaboration are being created for analysts and collectors

“Knowledge Walls” and Crisis Centers can be built more cheaply in a Virtual World, still using real-time feeds

1.1. SOA environments driven entirely by business SOA environments driven entirely by business processesprocesses

2.2. Cross-Domain capabilities as embedded, intuitive Cross-Domain capabilities as embedded, intuitive servicesservices

3.3. Rapid increases in speed/volume of sensor and Rapid increases in speed/volume of sensor and analytic feedsanalytic feeds

4.4. Stateless devices (the ultimate thin client Stateless devices (the ultimate thin client “computer”)“computer”)

5.5. Wideband agile human interfaces, and true video Wideband agile human interfaces, and true video tele-presencetele-presence

6.6. The The far edges of technological support for analysisfar edges of technological support for analysis::

Support to prediction;Support to prediction;

Crisis uncertainty management; Crisis uncertainty management;

Dynamic retasking of machines by machines...Dynamic retasking of machines by machines...

Research UnderwayResearch Underwayfor Future Enterprise for Future Enterprise EffectivenessEffectiveness

IT Portfolio LifecycleAccou

nta

bilit

y

0

100

Business LeadersBusiness Leaders

CIO

Lesson: Joint Leadership Lesson: Joint Leadership ResponsibilityResponsibility

“Government No Exception”

Lewis ShepherdMicrosoft Institute for Advanced

Technology in Governments

www.ShepherdsPi.com