Lewis Shepherd

lewiss@microsoft.com

www.ShepherdsPi.com

GOVERNMENT AND THE REVOLUTION IN SCIENTIFIC COMPUTING

OVERVIEW

• Innovations in Data / Computing /

Modeling / Science

• Government’s Role

• Reasons for Pessimism,

Rationale for Optimism

SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION IN DATA

A Thousand years ago – Experimental Science

– Description of natural phenomena

(With thanks to Jim Gray)

Last few hundred years – Theoretical Science

– Newton’s Laws,

– Maxwell’s Equations…

Last few decades – Computational Science

– Simulation of complex phenomena

Today – Data-Intensive Science

– Scientists overwhelmed with data sets

from many different sources

• Data captured by instruments

• Data generated by simulations

• Data generated by sensor networks

eScience is the set of tools and technologies to support data federation and collaboration

• For analysis and data mining

• For data visualization and exploration

• For scholarly communication and dissemination

(With thanks to Jim Gray)With thanks to Jim Gray

Pleiades star cluster from the Digitized Sky Survey

combined with an image of the moon, synthesized

within the WorldWide Telescope service.

DATA GOES UBIQUITOUS

DATA AND CLOUD AS PART OF A WHOLE

SCIENTIFIC TOOLS FOR NEW ERA

CLOUD GIVES

REPRODUCIBLE RESEARCH

PROGRAMMING BECOMES MODELING

TECHNICAL COMPUTING INITIATIVE

THE MICROPROCESSOR GETS INVENTED - AGAIN

EMPOWERING PEOPLE SIMPLY

THROUGH COMPLEXITY

OPEN DATA SETS AND PROTOCOLS

CITIZEN SCIENCE

DECLINE OF RESEARCH

Simon Cameron, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania

A leading voice during 1861 debate over Smithsonian Institution funding, during run-up to War

“I am tired of all this thing called science....

We have spent millions in that sort of thing for the last few years, and it is time it should be stopped.”

America’s Long Tradition of Government Supporting Research

Later in 1861: Named by Abraham Lincoln to head the 19th Century’s military-industrial complex (Secretary of War)

1866:Re-elected to U.S. Senate

1862: Ousted for corruption, censured by the House of Representatives for “contract manipulations”

America’s Long Tradition of Government Supporting Research

PRESIDENT’S INAUGURAL ADDRESSJANUARY 20, 2009

“We'll restore science

to its rightful place,

and wield technology's

wonders…”

2009: STIMULATING SCIENCE

• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (“the Stimulus Bill”)

• $24 billion in new funding for science and R&D, e.g.

• $10 billion for NIH

• $3 billion for NSF

• $1 billion for NASA

FY 2010: LIVING IN OUTLIER TIMES

• Stimulus + Budget = unprecedented increases for agencies

• Conferencees between House and Senate actually

chose the higher R&D funding levels between

their two versions.

• "It has been a very unusual year"

- Al Teich, Director, AAAS Science and Policy Programs

But taking the long view,

a less-rosy picture

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN FEDERAL R&D FUNDING

RISKRISK

THE TIMELINE OF SCIENCE

RESEARCH OF THE FUTURE