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Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD FORECAST COUNCIL P.O. Box 40962 Olympia, WA 98504-0962 (360) 586-0300

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Page 1: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts

Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008

STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD FORECAST COUNCIL

P.O. Box 40962 Olympia, WA 98504-0962 (360) 586-0300

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This publication is available electronically at http://www.cfc.wa.gov. To obtain this publication in an alternative format, please contact the Caseload Forecast Council at (360) 586-0300.

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JRA FORECAST MODEL

SCOPE The JRA caseload forecast includes the “in-residence”1 caseload in all residential facilities either operated by or under contract to the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS), Juvenile Rehabilitation Administration (JRA). This includes JRA institutions, forestry camps, and state operated group homes, as well as contracted beds in private group homes and county detention facilities.

JRA IN-RESIDENCE CASELOAD COMPONENTS JRA’s in-residence caseload is composed of three types of offenders: “regular” admissions, parole revocations, and “adult” offenders who were under 18 when sentenced to prison. Each of these components of the caseload is forecast separately within the forecast model (Figure 1). The caseload impact of regular admissions is a function of length of stay. Once committed to JRA, length of stay (LOS) is determined by two factors: sentencing range and JRA release policy. Standard sentence ranges, which include a minimum and a maximum, are mandated by the state sentencing guidelines. JRA sets the actual release date within the sentencing range. Current JRA release policy requires high-risk offenders to be held to the maximum; lower-risk offenders may be released any time after the minimum depending on the behavior during confinement. Offenders held on a parole revocation are the second component of the JRA residential caseload. Offenders released from JRA before age 21 are placed on parole. If they violate terms of their parole, they may be returned to confinement for up to 30 days through an administrative hearing process. This group typically accounts for three percent of the residential population. Their caseload impact is forecast separately because it is primarily a function of JRA policy. “Adult” offenders are the third component of the JRA residential caseload, accounting for about six percent of the caseload. These offenders are tried and convicted as adults for crimes committed before age 18. Under state law they may be housed in JRA and transferred to prison at age 212. The use of JRA facilities for adult offenders was relatively rare until July 2000. However, in 2000, DOC closed its housing unit for females under age 18 and transferred them to JRA under an inter-agency agreement. The under 18 female housing unit was closed by DOC in a cost cutting move; it was uneconomical to operate a special housing unit given the low average census of five female offenders per day. As a result of the policy change in DOC, there were five adult offenders housed in JRA at the end of Fiscal Year 2000. In 2003, DOC began transferring to JRA some under age 18 male offenders with special educational needs where it was felt they would receive more appropriate

1 The “in-residence” caseload excludes youths who have been on escape, authorized leave, or temporary assignment to other state or county facilities for more than 14 days. The “in-residence” caseload is typically about 97% of the “on-book” caseload. 2 In August 2008, the federal Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) in the Department of Justice revised a long standing interpretation of the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act that requires "sight and sound" separation of "adult" and "juvenile" offenders. Under the old interpretation, JRA was required to separate its juvenile offenders from the DOC transfer offenders by age 18.5. Under the new interpretation, these offenders may be co-mingled until age 21. As a result, it is anticipated that the DOC Offender portion of the JRA caseload will increase to about 100 by June 2011.

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services while freeing up beds in an over-crowded adult system. In 2004, DOC initiated a policy under which all adult offenders under age 18 will be transferred to JRAS until they reach age 18. Currently, all most adult offenders are returned to DOC when they reach age 18. However, offenders may be retained in JRA up to six months beyond age 18 if they are judged especially vulnerable, are near release, or are near completion of the high school education.

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FORECAST MODEL

Figure 1. JRA Forecast Model

Figure 1 presents the full forecast model. Each of the three components (Regular Admissions (A), Parole Revocations (B), and DOC Transfers (C)) comprising the JRA residential population is forecast separately, and then combined to form the full JRA residential caseload forecast. The forecast of the regular admission JRA caseload (A) is based on assumptions about future changes in the at-risk population and the proportion of the at-risk population that will be committed to JRA (commitment rate).3

3 The juvenile justice system can be visualized as a “funnel” or series of filters that divert less serious offenders from further penetration into the system (Figure 1). At one end of the process is the “at-risk” population of half a million 12-17 year-olds; at the other end are the 1,000 annual commitments to JRA custody. The actual decision by a juvenile court to commit a youth to JRA is, of course, only the final act in a juvenile justice system decision points from arrest through filing/diversion to sentencing. Each of these decision points is impacted by juvenile justice policy and resources. While a forecast model that included assumptions and data on each step in the process might help explain changes in commitment

JRA FORECAST MODEL

III. DOC Adult Offenders

Parole Revocation Parole Revocation Release

II. Parole Revocations

(B)

Informal Diversion Local

Sanctions

At-risk Population Juvenile

Crimes

Court Disposition

JRA Regular

Admission

I. Regular Admissions

JRA Parole

(A)

DOC Transferto JRA Return to DOC

(C)

Juvenile Justice System

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The state Office of Financial Management (OFM) is tasked with forecasting the state population and their annual population forecast update provides the at-risk population assumption for the forecast. The CFC JRA Technical Work Group sets the commitment rate assumptions for the forecast after reviewing available data on crime, arrests, and commitments to JRA. The Parole Revocation and DOC Transfer components of the forecast are relatively small components of the JRA caseload, accounting for about 8 percent of the total. These two components are typically forecast based on recent trends or an average of the prior 6-12 months, absent changes in JRA policy.

REGULAR ADMISSION FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS The current regular admission forecast assumptions on the at-risk population, commitment rates, and length of stay (LOS) are developed by a JRA forecast technical workgroup of juvenile justice professionals, legislative staff, and JRA program staff. Assumptions about changes in the at-risk population and commitment rates are all critical to the forecast. The at-risk population can be affected by short-term factors like changes in migration; commitment rates are also subject to immediate impact from changes in policy or practice within the juvenile justice system. The technical workgroup process is critical to the accuracy of the forecast because the members possess an in-depth knowledge of the juvenile justice system that helps them to identify ongoing changes in policy or practice that will affect JRA caseloads. The technical workgroup reviews data from a variety of sources, including: An updated at-risk population forecast from the Office of Financial Management (OFM). Data on reported crimes and arrests from the Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police

Chiefs (WASPC), and Data on juvenile offender filings and convictions from the Office of the Administrator for the

Courts (OAC). Data on admissions, length of stay (LOS), and releases from JRA.

The following sub-sections describe assumptions used in the current forecast.

AT-RISK POPULATION The “at-risk” population is defined as the portion of the state’s population from which the JRA caseload is derived. For purposes of the JRA forecast, the at-risk population includes all children age 12-17. Changes in the at-risk population alone will drive changes in JRA admissions. The current JRA forecast incorporates the most recent Office of Financial Management (OFM) population forecast of the state’s at-risk (age 12-17) population. rate, a forecast model based on assumptions about at risk and commitment rates is adequate to forecast JRA residential caseloads.

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JUVENILE CRIME, ADJUDICATION AND COMMITMENT RATES The technical workgroup reviewed trends over the past ten years and agreed that juvenile crime, adjudication, and commitment rates would remain relatively stable over the next two years. The technical workgroup’s specific assumptions,4 by crime category, are presented in Appendix B.

LENGTH OF STAY The JRA caseload is a function of admissions and LOS. The most recent forecast is based on LOS of offenders released in the most recent fiscal year.

DEVELOPMENT OF JRA FORECAST COMPONENTS The following sections describe the three major components of the forecast. The parole revocation and adult offender caseloads are both forecast as annual caseload impacts. The regular admission caseload is forecast as monthly “fractional” admission equivalents, or FAEs. Release dates are projected for these FAEs and then the net monthly gain/loss from admissions and releases is used to extend the current regular admission caseload.

FORECAST OF PAROLE REVOCATION CASELOAD The use of parole revocation has historically been at the discretion of JRA. JRA’s use of confinement as a parole sanction began to increase dramatically in Fiscal Year 1995. The impact on JRA caseload is currently forecast based on JRA expectations for the caseload, recent caseload trends and the last actual caseload.

FORECAST OF ADULT OFFENDER CASELOAD The adult offender caseload housed in JRA for the period from Fiscal Year 1992 to Fiscal Year 2005 is presented in Figure 5. Legislative initiatives from 1994 to 1997 increased the number of offenders under age 18 who were subject to adult jurisdiction. As a result, the number of offenders who were under age 18 and sentenced as adults increased, and the caseload of under age adult offenders receiving courtesy supervision in JRA increased. In 2000, DOC transferred all females under age 18 to JRA. In 2003, DOC began transferring a small number of under age 18 male offenders with special educational needs to JRA custody. In FY 2004 DOC policy was revised to have all under age 18 adult offenders transferred to JRA until age 212. The impact on JRA caseload is currently forecast based on DOC expectations for the caseload, recent caseload trends and the last actual caseload.

FORECAST OF THE REGULAR ADMISSION CASELOAD The regular admission caseload is determined in two parts: (1) the caseload impact of those regular admissions in-residence at the start of the forecast, and (2) the forecast of new regular admissions and releases during the forecast period.

FORECAST OF EXISTING JRA CASELOAD The first component of the regular admission caseload is youths admitted and not released prior to the start of the forecast period. Expected release dates are established for these offenders based on their

4 The forecast assumptions are reviewed by the technical workgroup and typically reflect consensus of the group; final responsibility for assumption setting rests with the Caseload Forecast Council.

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sentence and current release LOS patterns. This component of the JRA caseload decreases continuously beginning with the start of the forecast period as offenders are “released.” End of month (EOM) caseloads are calculated based on the expected release dates.

FORECAST OF NEW REGULAR ADMISSIONS The second forecast component is the forecast of “new” regular admissions and their releases. The OFM forecast of the state at-risk population of 12-17 year-olds and the crime rate assumptions are used to predict juvenile crimes in eleven crime categories. Assumptions about the proportion of crimes going to court, and of those convicted, the proportion committed to JRA, are used to forecast “new” JRA admissions in each of eleven offense categories. Frequency distributions of actual sentence lengths are computed based on the lengths of stay of offenders released in the current fiscal year. These LOS frequency distributions are used to forecast release dates for the forecasted admissions. End of month (EOM) caseloads are calculated based on the expected release dates. This component of the JRA caseload increases rapidly at the start of the forecast period before leveling off and becoming a function of changes in at-risk population.

JRA “REGULAR” INMATE FORECAST MODEL This section details the steps in the forecast model used to forecast the JRA Regular Admission caseload. 1. Generate historical caseload for JRA residential facilities.

a. This component is sometimes referred to as the “backcast” of the caseload. Historical individual level admission and release data from JRA are used to generate monthly distributions of admissions and releases up to the start of the forecast. These distributions are used to generate monthly caseload estimates which can be compared with published caseload figures as a validity check of the individual level data provided by JRA. The backcast is the starting point for the forecast.

2. Generate forecast of JRA regular admission caseload.

a. The forecasted caseload for any point in time is simply the starting caseload plus the net gain/loss from:

expected releases of the starting caseload, forecasted “new” admissions, and forecasted releases of “new” admissions.

3. Forecast release dates of current inmate population.

i. This component of the model forecasts an “expected release date” or ERD for each regular admission offender in the JRA caseload at the start of the forecast period. The expected release date for each offender is recorded in the JRA ACT database and serves as the basis for estimating LOS for those current offenders who have not been released.

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b. A reference LOS frequency distribution for each of 132 sentence length x age x offense combinations5 is generated from all releases in a reference time period.6

c. The ERDs for all unreleased offenders are then subtotaled by year and month of expected

release to yield a monthly release distribution for offenders in JRA custody at the start of the forecast period.

4. Forecast “new” regular admissions during the forecast period.

a. Monthly regular admissions during the forecast period are forecast based on the forecasted at-risk population and forecasted admission rate. Fiscal year admissions are forecasted for age x offense category combinations.

i. The OFM single age (12-17) population forecast by calendar year is extrapolated

to generate an age x fiscal year population forecast.

ii. Forecasted fiscal year admission rates by age x offense category are generated from the age x fiscal year population forecast and the technical workgroup assumptions about future crime rates, adjudication rates, and commitment rates.

The forecasted admission rate for each age x offense category is the product:

Admission Rate=Crime Rate x Adjudication Rate x Commitment Rate x At-Risk Proportion7

b. Forecasted annual admissions are distributed monthly to reflect historical seasonality

patterns (i.e., reflecting “monthlyality” in admissions). Unit forecasted admissions are thus converted to fractional admission equivalents or FAEs. For example, a forecast of 5 annual admissions of burglars at age 12 would be converted to 0.4178 FAE admissions per month (ignoring monthlyality).

5. Forecast “new” regular admission releases during the forecast period.

a. A LOS distribution generated from the reference period sample including ERDs for those not released at the start of the forecast is used to generate ERDs for the forecasted “new” admissions in the forecast period.

b. FAE forecasted monthly admissions are then further apportioned based on the LOS

distribution for the given age x offense category combination. Thus, for the 12 year old 5 See Appendix A. 6 The choice of a specific “reference” time period from which to generate LOS distributions is somewhat arbitrary. Longer time periods provide more stable estimates, but LOS patterns vary over time and too long a reference period risks use of out of date LOS patterns. The reference time period is typically the most recent fiscal year. 7 The At-Risk Proportion is proportion of age 12-17 population at a given age. 8 4/12=.417

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burglar example above, assume there are 3 12 year old burglars in the reference sample released at 36, 36 and 52 weeks of confinement, respectively. The forecasted 0.417 FAE 12 year old burglary admissions would be further apportioned so that .667 would be released at 36 weeks and .333 released at 52 weeks. In other words, .278 (.667 x .417) FAE admissions would be released at 36 weeks and .139 (.333 x .417) FAE released at 52 weeks.

c. Forecasted partial (FAE) monthly releases are then subtotaled by year and month of

release across all ages and offense categories to yield a monthly release distribution for the forecast period.

6. The forecasted new admissions and releases are then combined, by month, to generate a monthly

net change in regular admission caseload. This net change is then merged with the forecasted parole and adult offender components to generate the total forecasted JRA caseload.

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FYEAR Month Nov08 FC ADP FYEAR Month Nov08 FC ADP FYEAR Month Nov08 FC ADP FYEAR Month Nov08 FC ADP

FY08 Jul-07 793 779 FY13 Jul-12 590 587 FY18 Jul-17 604 606 FY23 Jul-22 640 643

Aug-07 806 Aug-12 579 Aug-17 593 Aug-22 628

Sep-07 805 Sep-12 583 Sep-17 599 Sep-22 635

Oct-07 806 Oct-12 581 Oct-17 597 Oct-22 633

Nov-07 802 Nov-12 587 Nov-17 605 Nov-22 642

Dec-07 780 Dec-12 581 Dec-17 602 Dec-22 639

Jan-08 758 Jan-13 584 Jan-18 605 Jan-23 642

Feb-08 757 Feb-13 589 Feb-18 610 Feb-23 648

Mar-08 760 Mar-13 592 Mar-18 613 Mar-23 651

Apr-08 753 Apr-13 595 Apr-18 616 Apr-23 654

May-08 762 May-13 594 May-18 615 May-23 653

Jun-08 769 Jun-13 588 Jun-18 609 Jun-23 647

FY09 Jul-08 728 723 FY14 Jul-13 587 588 FY19 Jul-18 609 611 FY24 Jul-23 648 651

Aug-08 710 Aug-13 576 Aug-18 599 Aug-23 636

Sep-08 706 Sep-13 582 Sep-18 605 Sep-23 643

Oct-08 717 Oct-13 580 Oct-18 603 Oct-23 641

Nov-08 719 Nov-13 587 Nov-18 610 Nov-23 650

Dec-08 723 Dec-13 584 Dec-18 608 Dec-23 647

Jan-09 728 Jan-14 587 Jan-19 610 Jan-24 651

Feb-09 733 Feb-14 592 Feb-19 616 Feb-24 657

Mar-09 735 Mar-14 595 Mar-19 619 Mar-24 660

Apr-09 733 Apr-14 598 Apr-19 622 Apr-24 663

May-09 728 May-14 597 May-19 621 May-24 662

Jun-09 715 Jun-14 591 Jun-19 615 Jun-24 656

FY10 Jul-09 696 661 FY15 Jul-14 591 592 FY20 Jul-19 616 619 FY25 Jul-24 656 659

Aug-09 675 Aug-14 580 Aug-19 606 Aug-24 644

Sep 09 674 Sep 14 586 Sep 19 612 Sep 24 651

Table 1 November 2008 JRA Forecast

Sep-09 674 Sep-14 586 Sep-19 612 Sep-24 651

Oct-09 668 Oct-14 584 Oct-19 610 Oct-24 649

Nov-09 669 Nov-14 591 Nov-19 618 Nov-24 658

Dec-09 660 Dec-14 588 Dec-19 615 Dec-24 655

Jan-10 652 Jan-15 591 Jan-20 618 Jan-25 658

Feb-10 653 Feb-15 596 Feb-20 624 Feb-25 664

Mar-10 651 Mar-15 599 Mar-20 627 Mar-25 667

Apr-10 653 Apr-15 601 Apr-20 630 Apr-25 670

May-10 646 May-15 600 May-20 629 May-25 668

Jun-10 635 Jun-15 594 Jun-20 623 Jun-25 662

FY11 Jul-10 622 608 FY16 Jul-15 594 595 FY21 Jul-20 624 628 FY26 Jul-25 662 664

Aug-10 607 Aug-15 583 Aug-20 613 Aug-25 649

Sep-10 609 Sep-15 589 Sep-20 620 Sep-25 656

Oct-10 607 Oct-15 587 Oct-20 619 Oct-25 654

Nov-10 608 Nov-15 594 Nov-20 627 Nov-25 663

Dec-10 603 Dec-15 591 Dec-20 624 Dec-25 660

Jan-11 604 Jan-16 594 Jan-21 627 Jan-26 663

Feb-11 609 Feb-16 600 Feb-21 633 Feb-26 669

Mar-11 609 Mar-16 603 Mar-21 636 Mar-26 672

Apr-11 610 Apr-16 606 Apr-21 639 Apr-26 675

May-11 609 May-16 605 May-21 638 May-26 673

Jun-11 599 Jun-16 599 Jun-21 632 Jun-26 666

FY12 Jul-11 597 593 FY17 Jul-16 599 600 FY22 Jul-21 633 635 FY27 Jul-26 666 668

Aug-11 586 Aug-16 588 Aug-21 621 Aug-26 653

Sep-11 590 Sep-16 594 Sep-21 628 Sep-26 660

Oct-11 587 Oct-16 592 Oct-21 626 Oct-26 658

Nov-11 593 Nov-16 599 Nov-21 634 Nov-26 667

Dec-11 589 Dec-16 596 Dec-21 631 Dec-26 664

Jan-12 591 Jan-17 599 Jan-22 634 Jan-27 667

Feb-12 596 Feb-17 605 Feb-22 640 Feb-27 674

Mar-12 598 Mar-17 608 Mar-22 643 Mar-27 677

Apr-12 599 Apr-17 610 Apr-22 646 Apr-27 680

May-12 597 May-17 609 May-22 645 May-27 678

Jun-12 591 Jun-17 604 Jun-22 639 Jun-27 671

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Page A - 1

APPENDIX A

JRA Forecast Offense categories: 1. Murder/manslaughter 2. Serious sex crimes 3. Other sex crimes 4. Robbery 5. Serious Assaultive crimes 6. Other Assaultive crimes 7. Serious property crimes 8. Residential burglary 9. Other property crimes 10. Drug crimes 11. Other crimes

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Page B - 1

APPENDIX B

November 2008 Forecast Assumptions

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JRAFC 02C: Comparison of Old and New Criminal Justice AssumptionsSource: OffGridComp

Old Assumptions: NOV07VER1New Assumptions: NOV08VER1

' October 2, 2008 --- 11:13 AM'

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 1 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=TOT

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 1,029 1,029 0 369,166 2.787 278.736 2.787 278.736

1990 1,186 1,186 0 376,674 3.149 314.861 3.149 314.861

1991 1,185 1,185 0 391,830 3.024 302.427 3.024 302.427

1992 1,301 1,301 0 411,149 3.164 316.430 3.164 316.430

1993 1,449 1,449 0 434,463 3.335 333.515 3.335 333.515

1994 1,580 1,580 0 453,136 3.487 348.681 3.487 348.681

1995 1,749 1,749 0 471,494 3.709 370.948 3.709 370.948

1996 1,810 1,810 0 488,615 3.704 370.434 3.704 370.434

1997 1,309 1,309 0 502,926 2.603 260.277 2.603 260.277

1998 1,578 1,578 0 512,196 3.081 308.085 3.081 308.085

1999 1,522 1,522 0 514,114 2.960 296.043 2.960 296.043

2000 1,403 1,403 0 516,550 2.716 271.610 2.716 271.610

2001 1,250 1,250 0 520,774 2.400 240.027 2.400 240.027

2002 1,239 1,239 0 526,795 2.352 235.196 2.352 235.196

2003 1,193 1,193 0 532,283 2.241 224.129 2.241 224.129

2004 1,123 1,123 0 536,214 2.094 209.431 2.094 209.431

2005 968 968 0 541,631 1.787 178.720 1.787 178.720

2006 998 998 0 546,609 1.826 182.580 1.826 182.580

2007 930 930 0 549,133 1.694 169.358 1.694 169.358

2008 861 886 -25 547,708 1.572 157.201 1.618 161.792

2009 * 847 880 -34 544,101 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2010 * 842 875 -33 540,980 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2011 * 839 873 -33 539,454 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2012 * 840 873 -33 539,763 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2013 * 845 879 -34 543,084 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2014 * 851 885 -34 546,733 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2015 * 856 890 -34 549,948 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2016 * 863 897 -34 554,473 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2017 * 870 904 -34 558,984 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2018 * 878 913 -35 564,253 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2019 * 889 924 -35 571,357 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2020 * 904 940 -36 580,793 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2021 * 920 957 -37 591,425 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2022 * 935 972 -37 600,812 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2023 * 949 987 -38 609,773 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2024 * 964 1,002 -38 619,307 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2025 * 975 1,013 -39 626,283 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2026 * 984 1,023 -39 632,212 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2027 * 994 1,033 -39 638,710 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2028 * 1,004 1,044 -40 645,274 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2029 * 1,014 1,054 -40 651,741 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

2030 * 1,023 1,064 -41 657,441 1.556 155.620 1.618 161.792

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PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 2 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=MUR

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 10 10 0 369,166 0.027 2.709 0.027 2.709

1990 14 14 0 376,674 0.037 3.717 0.037 3.717

1991 13 13 0 391,830 0.033 3.318 0.033 3.318

1992 10 10 0 411,149 0.024 2.432 0.024 2.432

1993 11 11 0 434,463 0.025 2.532 0.025 2.532

1994 10 10 0 453,136 0.022 2.207 0.022 2.207

1995 10 10 0 471,494 0.021 2.121 0.021 2.121

1996 17 17 0 488,615 0.035 3.479 0.035 3.479

1997 3 3 0 502,926 0.006 0.597 0.006 0.597

1998 6 6 0 512,196 0.012 1.171 0.012 1.171

1999 7 7 0 514,114 0.014 1.362 0.014 1.362

2000 5 5 0 516,550 0.010 0.968 0.010 0.968

2001 10 10 0 520,774 0.019 1.920 0.019 1.920

2002 14 14 0 526,795 0.027 2.658 0.027 2.658

2003 4 4 0 532,283 0.008 0.751 0.008 0.751

2004 6 6 0 536,214 0.011 1.119 0.011 1.119

2005 11 11 0 541,631 0.020 2.031 0.020 2.031

2006 8 8 0 546,609 0.015 1.464 0.015 1.464

2007 7 7 0 549,133 0.013 1.275 0.013 1.275

2008 3 9 -6 547,708 0.005 0.548 0.016 1.590

2009 * 6 9 -3 544,101 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2010 * 6 9 -3 540,980 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2011 * 6 9 -3 539,454 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2012 * 6 9 -3 539,763 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2013 * 6 9 -3 543,084 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2014 * 6 9 -3 546,733 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2015 * 6 9 -3 549,948 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2016 * 6 9 -3 554,473 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2017 * 6 9 -3 558,984 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2018 * 6 9 -3 564,253 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2019 * 6 9 -3 571,357 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2020 * 6 9 -3 580,793 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2021 * 6 9 -3 591,425 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2022 * 7 10 -3 600,812 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2023 * 7 10 -3 609,773 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2024 * 7 10 -3 619,307 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2025 * 7 10 -3 626,283 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2026 * 7 10 -3 632,212 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2027 * 7 10 -3 638,710 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2028 * 7 10 -3 645,274 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2029 * 7 10 -3 651,741 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

2030 * 7 10 -3 657,441 0.011 1.090 0.016 1.590

Page 16: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 3 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=SSX

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 103 103 0 369,166 0.279 27.901 0.279 27.901

1990 136 136 0 376,674 0.361 36.105 0.361 36.105

1991 140 140 0 391,830 0.357 35.730 0.357 35.730

1992 137 137 0 411,149 0.333 33.321 0.333 33.321

1993 180 180 0 434,463 0.414 41.430 0.414 41.430

1994 215 215 0 453,136 0.474 47.447 0.474 47.447

1995 197 197 0 471,494 0.418 41.782 0.418 41.782

1996 190 190 0 488,615 0.389 38.885 0.389 38.885

1997 173 173 0 502,926 0.344 34.399 0.344 34.399

1998 171 171 0 512,196 0.334 33.386 0.334 33.386

1999 134 134 0 514,114 0.261 26.064 0.261 26.064

2000 140 140 0 516,550 0.271 27.103 0.271 27.103

2001 141 141 0 520,774 0.271 27.075 0.271 27.075

2002 136 136 0 526,795 0.258 25.817 0.258 25.817

2003 135 135 0 532,283 0.254 25.362 0.254 25.362

2004 155 155 0 536,214 0.289 28.906 0.289 28.906

2005 141 141 0 541,631 0.260 26.033 0.260 26.033

2006 113 113 0 546,609 0.207 20.673 0.207 20.673

2007 109 109 0 549,133 0.198 19.849 0.198 19.849

2008 106 90 16 547,708 0.194 19.353 0.165 16.500

2009 * 102 90 12 544,101 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2010 * 102 89 12 540,980 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2011 * 101 89 12 539,454 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2012 * 101 89 12 539,763 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2013 * 102 90 12 543,084 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2014 * 103 90 12 546,733 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2015 * 103 91 12 549,948 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2016 * 104 91 13 554,473 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2017 * 105 92 13 558,984 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2018 * 106 93 13 564,253 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2019 * 107 94 13 571,357 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2020 * 109 96 13 580,793 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2021 * 111 98 13 591,425 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2022 * 113 99 14 600,812 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2023 * 114 101 14 609,773 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2024 * 116 102 14 619,307 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2025 * 118 103 14 626,283 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2026 * 119 104 14 632,212 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2027 * 120 105 14 638,710 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2028 * 121 106 15 645,274 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2029 * 122 108 15 651,741 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

2030 * 123 108 15 657,441 0.188 18.770 0.165 16.500

Page 17: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 4 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=OSX

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 42 42 0 369,166 0.114 11.377 0.114 11.377

1990 39 39 0 376,674 0.104 10.354 0.104 10.354

1991 27 27 0 391,830 0.069 6.891 0.069 6.891

1992 17 17 0 411,149 0.041 4.135 0.041 4.135

1993 29 29 0 434,463 0.067 6.675 0.067 6.675

1994 28 28 0 453,136 0.062 6.179 0.062 6.179

1995 40 40 0 471,494 0.085 8.484 0.085 8.484

1996 23 23 0 488,615 0.047 4.707 0.047 4.707

1997 15 15 0 502,926 0.030 2.983 0.030 2.983

1998 27 27 0 512,196 0.053 5.271 0.053 5.271

1999 21 21 0 514,114 0.041 4.085 0.041 4.085

2000 31 31 0 516,550 0.060 6.001 0.060 6.001

2001 30 30 0 520,774 0.058 5.761 0.058 5.761

2002 25 25 0 526,795 0.047 4.746 0.047 4.746

2003 30 30 0 532,283 0.056 5.636 0.056 5.636

2004 40 40 0 536,214 0.075 7.460 0.075 7.460

2005 24 24 0 541,631 0.044 4.431 0.044 4.431

2006 26 26 0 546,609 0.048 4.757 0.048 4.757

2007 30 30 0 549,133 0.055 5.463 0.055 5.463

2008 19 27 -8 547,708 0.035 3.469 0.049 4.884

2009 * 25 27 -2 544,101 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2010 * 25 26 -2 540,980 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2011 * 25 26 -2 539,454 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2012 * 25 26 -2 539,763 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2013 * 25 27 -2 543,084 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2014 * 25 27 -2 546,733 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2015 * 25 27 -2 549,948 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2016 * 25 27 -2 554,473 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2017 * 25 27 -2 558,984 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2018 * 26 28 -2 564,253 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2019 * 26 28 -2 571,357 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2020 * 26 28 -2 580,793 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2021 * 27 29 -2 591,425 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2022 * 27 29 -2 600,812 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2023 * 28 30 -2 609,773 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2024 * 28 30 -2 619,307 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2025 * 29 31 -2 626,283 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2026 * 29 31 -2 632,212 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2027 * 29 31 -2 638,710 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2028 * 29 32 -2 645,274 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2029 * 30 32 -2 651,741 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

2030 * 30 32 -2 657,441 0.046 4.560 0.049 4.884

Page 18: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 5 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=ROB

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 85 85 0 369,166 0.230 23.025 0.230 23.025

1990 105 105 0 376,674 0.279 27.876 0.279 27.876

1991 129 129 0 391,830 0.329 32.922 0.329 32.922

1992 163 163 0 411,149 0.396 39.645 0.396 39.645

1993 169 169 0 434,463 0.389 38.899 0.389 38.899

1994 165 165 0 453,136 0.364 36.413 0.364 36.413

1995 196 196 0 471,494 0.416 41.570 0.416 41.570

1996 232 232 0 488,615 0.475 47.481 0.475 47.481

1997 152 152 0 502,926 0.302 30.223 0.302 30.223

1998 165 165 0 512,196 0.322 32.214 0.322 32.214

1999 186 186 0 514,114 0.362 36.179 0.362 36.179

2000 117 117 0 516,550 0.227 22.650 0.227 22.650

2001 109 109 0 520,774 0.209 20.930 0.209 20.930

2002 139 139 0 526,795 0.264 26.386 0.264 26.386

2003 109 109 0 532,283 0.205 20.478 0.205 20.478

2004 95 95 0 536,214 0.177 17.717 0.177 17.717

2005 87 87 0 541,631 0.161 16.063 0.161 16.063

2006 114 114 0 546,609 0.209 20.856 0.209 20.856

2007 113 113 0 549,133 0.206 20.578 0.206 20.578

2008 102 113 -11 547,708 0.186 18.623 0.206 20.578

2009 * 96 112 -16 544,101 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2010 * 95 111 -16 540,980 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2011 * 95 111 -16 539,454 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2012 * 95 111 -16 539,763 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2013 * 95 112 -16 543,084 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2014 * 96 113 -16 546,733 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2015 * 97 113 -16 549,948 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2016 * 97 114 -17 554,473 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2017 * 98 115 -17 558,984 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2018 * 99 116 -17 564,253 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2019 * 100 118 -17 571,357 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2020 * 102 120 -17 580,793 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2021 * 104 122 -18 591,425 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2022 * 106 124 -18 600,812 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2023 * 107 125 -18 609,773 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2024 * 109 127 -19 619,307 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2025 * 110 129 -19 626,283 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2026 * 111 130 -19 632,212 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2027 * 112 131 -19 638,710 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2028 * 113 133 -19 645,274 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2029 * 115 134 -20 651,741 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

2030 * 116 135 -20 657,441 0.176 17.580 0.206 20.578

Page 19: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 6 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=SAS

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 86 86 0 369,166 0.233 23.296 0.233 23.296

1990 117 117 0 376,674 0.311 31.061 0.311 31.061

1991 122 122 0 391,830 0.311 31.136 0.311 31.136

1992 128 128 0 411,149 0.311 31.132 0.311 31.132

1993 158 158 0 434,463 0.364 36.367 0.364 36.367

1994 186 186 0 453,136 0.410 41.047 0.410 41.047

1995 182 182 0 471,494 0.386 38.601 0.386 38.601

1996 221 221 0 488,615 0.452 45.230 0.452 45.230

1997 114 114 0 502,926 0.227 22.667 0.227 22.667

1998 143 143 0 512,196 0.279 27.919 0.279 27.919

1999 158 158 0 514,114 0.307 30.732 0.307 30.732

2000 164 164 0 516,550 0.317 31.749 0.317 31.749

2001 101 101 0 520,774 0.194 19.394 0.194 19.394

2002 119 119 0 526,795 0.226 22.589 0.226 22.589

2003 84 84 0 532,283 0.158 15.781 0.158 15.781

2004 101 101 0 536,214 0.188 18.836 0.188 18.836

2005 94 94 0 541,631 0.174 17.355 0.174 17.355

2006 87 87 0 546,609 0.159 15.916 0.159 15.916

2007 98 98 0 549,133 0.178 17.846 0.178 17.846

2008 111 98 13 547,708 0.203 20.266 0.178 17.846

2009 * 122 97 25 544,101 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2010 * 122 97 25 540,980 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2011 * 121 96 25 539,454 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2012 * 122 96 25 539,763 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2013 * 122 97 25 543,084 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2014 * 123 98 25 546,733 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2015 * 124 98 26 549,948 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2016 * 125 99 26 554,473 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2017 * 126 100 26 558,984 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2018 * 127 101 26 564,253 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2019 * 129 102 27 571,357 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2020 * 131 104 27 580,793 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2021 * 133 106 28 591,425 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2022 * 135 107 28 600,812 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2023 * 137 109 28 609,773 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2024 * 139 111 29 619,307 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2025 * 141 112 29 626,283 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2026 * 142 113 29 632,212 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2027 * 144 114 30 638,710 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2028 * 145 115 30 645,274 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2029 * 147 116 30 651,741 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

2030 * 148 117 31 657,441 0.225 22.510 0.178 17.846

Page 20: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 7 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=OAS

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 50 50 0 369,166 0.135 13.544 0.135 13.544

1990 42 42 0 376,674 0.112 11.150 0.112 11.150

1991 61 61 0 391,830 0.156 15.568 0.156 15.568

1992 69 69 0 411,149 0.168 16.782 0.168 16.782

1993 58 58 0 434,463 0.133 13.350 0.133 13.350

1994 81 81 0 453,136 0.179 17.875 0.179 17.875

1995 107 107 0 471,494 0.227 22.694 0.227 22.694

1996 104 104 0 488,615 0.213 21.285 0.213 21.285

1997 95 95 0 502,926 0.189 18.889 0.189 18.889

1998 158 158 0 512,196 0.308 30.848 0.308 30.848

1999 141 141 0 514,114 0.274 27.426 0.274 27.426

2000 149 149 0 516,550 0.288 28.845 0.288 28.845

2001 145 145 0 520,774 0.278 27.843 0.278 27.843

2002 151 151 0 526,795 0.287 28.664 0.287 28.664

2003 146 146 0 532,283 0.274 27.429 0.274 27.429

2004 102 102 0 536,214 0.190 19.022 0.190 19.022

2005 85 85 0 541,631 0.157 15.693 0.157 15.693

2006 84 84 0 546,609 0.154 15.367 0.154 15.367

2007 78 78 0 549,133 0.142 14.204 0.142 14.204

2008 65 74 -9 547,708 0.119 11.868 0.135 13.460

2009 * 55 73 -18 544,101 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2010 * 55 73 -18 540,980 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2011 * 55 73 -18 539,454 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2012 * 55 73 -18 539,763 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2013 * 55 73 -18 543,084 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2014 * 56 74 -18 546,733 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2015 * 56 74 -18 549,948 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2016 * 56 75 -18 554,473 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2017 * 57 75 -18 558,984 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2018 * 57 76 -19 564,253 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2019 * 58 77 -19 571,357 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2020 * 59 78 -19 580,793 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2021 * 60 80 -19 591,425 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2022 * 61 81 -20 600,812 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2023 * 62 82 -20 609,773 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2024 * 63 83 -20 619,307 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2025 * 64 84 -21 626,283 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2026 * 64 85 -21 632,212 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2027 * 65 86 -21 638,710 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2028 * 66 87 -21 645,274 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2029 * 66 88 -21 651,741 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

2030 * 67 88 -22 657,441 0.102 10.170 0.135 13.460

Page 21: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 8 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=SPR

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 51 51 0 369,166 0.138 13.815 0.138 13.815

1990 69 69 0 376,674 0.183 18.318 0.183 18.318

1991 62 62 0 391,830 0.158 15.823 0.158 15.823

1992 75 75 0 411,149 0.182 18.242 0.182 18.242

1993 82 82 0 434,463 0.189 18.874 0.189 18.874

1994 82 82 0 453,136 0.181 18.096 0.181 18.096

1995 107 107 0 471,494 0.227 22.694 0.227 22.694

1996 128 128 0 488,615 0.262 26.196 0.262 26.196

1997 88 88 0 502,926 0.175 17.498 0.175 17.498

1998 58 58 0 512,196 0.113 11.324 0.113 11.324

1999 50 50 0 514,114 0.097 9.725 0.097 9.725

2000 37 37 0 516,550 0.072 7.163 0.072 7.163

2001 25 25 0 520,774 0.048 4.801 0.048 4.801

2002 42 42 0 526,795 0.080 7.973 0.080 7.973

2003 32 32 0 532,283 0.060 6.012 0.060 6.012

2004 30 30 0 536,214 0.056 5.595 0.056 5.595

2005 23 23 0 541,631 0.042 4.246 0.042 4.246

2006 21 21 0 546,609 0.038 3.842 0.038 3.842

2007 18 18 0 549,133 0.033 3.278 0.033 3.278

2008 32 21 11 547,708 0.058 5.843 0.038 3.789

2009 * 24 21 3 544,101 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2010 * 23 20 3 540,980 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2011 * 23 20 3 539,454 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2012 * 23 20 3 539,763 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2013 * 23 21 3 543,084 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2014 * 24 21 3 546,733 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2015 * 24 21 3 549,948 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2016 * 24 21 3 554,473 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2017 * 24 21 3 558,984 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2018 * 24 21 3 564,253 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2019 * 25 22 3 571,357 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2020 * 25 22 3 580,793 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2021 * 26 22 3 591,425 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2022 * 26 23 3 600,812 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2023 * 26 23 3 609,773 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2024 * 27 23 3 619,307 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2025 * 27 24 3 626,283 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2026 * 27 24 3 632,212 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2027 * 28 24 3 638,710 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2028 * 28 24 3 645,274 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2029 * 28 25 3 651,741 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

2030 * 28 25 3 657,441 0.043 4.320 0.038 3.789

Page 22: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 9 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=BUR

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 288 288 0 369,166 0.780 78.014 0.780 78.014

1990 268 268 0 376,674 0.711 71.149 0.711 71.149

1991 211 211 0 391,830 0.538 53.850 0.538 53.850

1992 226 226 0 411,149 0.550 54.968 0.550 54.968

1993 244 244 0 434,463 0.562 56.161 0.562 56.161

1994 247 247 0 453,136 0.545 54.509 0.545 54.509

1995 205 205 0 471,494 0.435 43.479 0.435 43.479

1996 230 230 0 488,615 0.471 47.072 0.471 47.072

1997 203 203 0 502,926 0.404 40.364 0.404 40.364

1998 234 234 0 512,196 0.457 45.686 0.457 45.686

1999 238 238 0 514,114 0.463 46.293 0.463 46.293

2000 233 233 0 516,550 0.451 45.107 0.451 45.107

2001 205 205 0 520,774 0.394 39.364 0.394 39.364

2002 173 173 0 526,795 0.328 32.840 0.328 32.840

2003 221 221 0 532,283 0.415 41.519 0.415 41.519

2004 204 204 0 536,214 0.380 38.044 0.380 38.044

2005 159 159 0 541,631 0.294 29.356 0.294 29.356

2006 154 154 0 546,609 0.282 28.174 0.282 28.174

2007 151 151 0 549,133 0.275 27.498 0.275 27.498

2008 140 146 -6 547,708 0.256 25.561 0.266 26.569

2009 * 135 145 -9 544,101 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2010 * 135 144 -9 540,980 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2011 * 134 143 -9 539,454 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2012 * 134 143 -9 539,763 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2013 * 135 144 -9 543,084 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2014 * 136 145 -9 546,733 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2015 * 137 146 -9 549,948 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2016 * 138 147 -9 554,473 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2017 * 139 149 -9 558,984 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2018 * 140 150 -9 564,253 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2019 * 142 152 -10 571,357 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2020 * 145 154 -10 580,793 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2021 * 147 157 -10 591,425 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2022 * 150 160 -10 600,812 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2023 * 152 162 -10 609,773 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2024 * 154 165 -10 619,307 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2025 * 156 166 -10 626,283 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2026 * 157 168 -11 632,212 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2027 * 159 170 -11 638,710 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2028 * 161 171 -11 645,274 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2029 * 162 173 -11 651,741 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

2030 * 164 175 -11 657,441 0.249 24.900 0.266 26.569

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PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 10 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=OPR

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 214 214 0 369,166 0.580 57.968 0.580 57.968

1990 228 228 0 376,674 0.605 60.530 0.605 60.530

1991 241 241 0 391,830 0.615 61.506 0.615 61.506

1992 308 308 0 411,149 0.749 74.912 0.749 74.912

1993 326 326 0 434,463 0.750 75.035 0.750 75.035

1994 371 371 0 453,136 0.819 81.874 0.819 81.874

1995 460 460 0 471,494 0.976 97.562 0.976 97.562

1996 464 464 0 488,615 0.950 94.962 0.950 94.962

1997 347 347 0 502,926 0.690 68.996 0.690 68.996

1998 425 425 0 512,196 0.830 82.976 0.830 82.976

1999 405 405 0 514,114 0.788 78.776 0.788 78.776

2000 336 336 0 516,550 0.650 65.047 0.650 65.047

2001 319 319 0 520,774 0.613 61.255 0.613 61.255

2002 315 315 0 526,795 0.598 59.796 0.598 59.796

2003 276 276 0 532,283 0.519 51.852 0.519 51.852

2004 266 266 0 536,214 0.496 49.607 0.496 49.607

2005 235 235 0 541,631 0.434 43.388 0.434 43.388

2006 254 254 0 546,609 0.465 46.468 0.465 46.468

2007 207 207 0 549,133 0.377 37.696 0.377 37.696

2008 197 191 6 547,708 0.360 35.968 0.348 34.850

2009 * 168 190 -22 544,101 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2010 * 167 189 -22 540,980 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2011 * 166 188 -22 539,454 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2012 * 167 188 -22 539,763 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2013 * 168 189 -22 543,084 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2014 * 169 191 -22 546,733 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2015 * 170 192 -22 549,948 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2016 * 171 193 -22 554,473 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2017 * 173 195 -22 558,984 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2018 * 174 197 -23 564,253 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2019 * 176 199 -23 571,357 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2020 * 179 202 -23 580,793 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2021 * 183 206 -24 591,425 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2022 * 185 209 -24 600,812 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2023 * 188 213 -24 609,773 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2024 * 191 216 -25 619,307 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2025 * 193 218 -25 626,283 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2026 * 195 220 -25 632,212 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2027 * 197 223 -25 638,710 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2028 * 199 225 -26 645,274 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2029 * 201 227 -26 651,741 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

2030 * 203 229 -26 657,441 0.309 30.860 0.348 34.850

Page 24: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 11 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=DRG

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 70 70 0 369,166 0.190 18.962 0.190 18.962

1990 131 131 0 376,674 0.348 34.778 0.348 34.778

1991 141 141 0 391,830 0.360 35.985 0.360 35.985

1992 138 138 0 411,149 0.336 33.564 0.336 33.564

1993 143 143 0 434,463 0.329 32.914 0.329 32.914

1994 141 141 0 453,136 0.311 31.116 0.311 31.116

1995 146 146 0 471,494 0.310 30.965 0.310 30.965

1996 121 121 0 488,615 0.248 24.764 0.248 24.764

1997 68 68 0 502,926 0.135 13.521 0.135 13.521

1998 136 136 0 512,196 0.266 26.552 0.266 26.552

1999 123 123 0 514,114 0.239 23.925 0.239 23.925

2000 121 121 0 516,550 0.234 23.425 0.234 23.425

2001 108 108 0 520,774 0.207 20.738 0.207 20.738

2002 82 82 0 526,795 0.156 15.566 0.156 15.566

2003 103 103 0 532,283 0.194 19.351 0.194 19.351

2004 73 73 0 536,214 0.136 13.614 0.136 13.614

2005 62 62 0 541,631 0.114 11.447 0.114 11.447

2006 76 76 0 546,609 0.139 13.904 0.139 13.904

2007 65 65 0 549,133 0.118 11.837 0.118 11.837

2008 42 65 -23 547,708 0.077 7.668 0.118 11.837

2009 * 61 64 -4 544,101 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2010 * 61 64 -3 540,980 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2011 * 60 64 -3 539,454 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2012 * 60 64 -3 539,763 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2013 * 61 64 -4 543,084 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2014 * 61 65 -4 546,733 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2015 * 62 65 -4 549,948 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2016 * 62 66 -4 554,473 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2017 * 63 66 -4 558,984 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2018 * 63 67 -4 564,253 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2019 * 64 68 -4 571,357 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2020 * 65 69 -4 580,793 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2021 * 66 70 -4 591,425 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2022 * 67 71 -4 600,812 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2023 * 68 72 -4 609,773 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2024 * 69 73 -4 619,307 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2025 * 70 74 -4 626,283 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2026 * 71 75 -4 632,212 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2027 * 71 76 -4 638,710 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2028 * 72 76 -4 645,274 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2029 * 73 77 -4 651,741 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

2030 * 74 78 -4 657,441 0.112 11.190 0.118 11.837

Page 25: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

PDF File: JRAFC 02C Old v New Offense Grids Prepared for: November 2008 JRA Forecast 12 of 12Caseload Forecast Council JRAFC 02C Generate Old and New Assumption Off Grids.sas SAS run date: 10/02/2008

OFMS=OCR

FiscalYear

________FC__

JRAAdmitsNewFC______

JRAAdmitsOldFC______

JRAAdmits

New-Old______

Avg. 12-17Population

____________

NewFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

NewFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

OldFCAdmits Per 1,000 Age

12-17___________

OldFCAdmits Per

100,000 Age12-17

___________

1989 30 30 0 369,166 0.081 8.126 0.081 8.126

1990 37 37 0 376,674 0.098 9.823 0.098 9.823

1991 38 38 0 391,830 0.097 9.698 0.097 9.698

1992 30 30 0 411,149 0.073 7.297 0.073 7.297

1993 49 49 0 434,463 0.113 11.278 0.113 11.278

1994 54 54 0 453,136 0.119 11.917 0.119 11.917

1995 99 99 0 471,494 0.210 20.997 0.210 20.997

1996 80 80 0 488,615 0.164 16.373 0.164 16.373

1997 51 51 0 502,926 0.101 10.141 0.101 10.141

1998 55 55 0 512,196 0.107 10.738 0.107 10.738

1999 59 59 0 514,114 0.115 11.476 0.115 11.476

2000 70 70 0 516,550 0.136 13.551 0.136 13.551

2001 57 57 0 520,774 0.109 10.945 0.109 10.945

2002 43 43 0 526,795 0.082 8.163 0.082 8.163

2003 53 53 0 532,283 0.100 9.957 0.100 9.957

2004 51 51 0 536,214 0.095 9.511 0.095 9.511

2005 47 47 0 541,631 0.087 8.678 0.087 8.678

2006 61 61 0 546,609 0.112 11.160 0.112 11.160

2007 54 54 0 549,133 0.098 9.834 0.098 9.834

2008 44 54 -10 547,708 0.080 8.033 0.099 9.890

2009 * 53 54 -1 544,101 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2010 * 52 54 -1 540,980 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2011 * 52 53 -1 539,454 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2012 * 52 53 -1 539,763 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2013 * 53 54 -1 543,084 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2014 * 53 54 -1 546,733 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2015 * 53 54 -1 549,948 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2016 * 54 55 -1 554,473 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2017 * 54 55 -1 558,984 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2018 * 55 56 -1 564,253 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2019 * 55 57 -1 571,357 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2020 * 56 57 -1 580,793 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2021 * 57 58 -1 591,425 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2022 * 58 59 -1 600,812 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2023 * 59 60 -1 609,773 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2024 * 60 61 -1 619,307 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2025 * 61 62 -1 626,283 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2026 * 61 63 -1 632,212 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2027 * 62 63 -1 638,710 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2028 * 62 64 -1 645,274 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2029 * 63 64 -1 651,741 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

2030 * 64 65 -1 657,441 0.097 9.670 0.099 9.890

Page 26: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

Page C - 1

APPENDIX C

Criminal Justice Background Data

Page 27: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

JUVENILE COMMITMENTS TO STATE (JRA) INSTITUTIONS

Burglary AutoCY Homicide Sex Robbery Assault & Theft Theft Drug Other Total

199219931994199519961997 2 208 122 235 385 134 74 93 1,2531998 4 171 195 262 461 149 116 146 1,5041999 8 178 142 306 465 96 138 155 1,4882000 4 178 130 269 443 101 108 156 1,3892001 9 187 130 251 337 83 97 142 1,2362002 12 159 130 229 388 85 96 139 1,2382003 5 169 101 213 373 70 84 128 1,1432004 13 203 125 195 346 70 63 126 1,1412005 12 154 117 195 302 42 76 143 1,0412006 14 138 132 163 323 41 70 132 1,0132007 9 139 138 195 286 36 61 104 96820082009

Rate/1,000 Age 12-17 Burglary Auto PopulationCY Homicide Sex Robbery Assault & Theft Theft Drug Other Total 12 - 17

1992 417,6811993 441,0941994 457,9151995 477,2331996 493,0231997 0.00 0.41 0.24 0.46 0.76 0.26 0.15 0.18 2.47 506,7341998 0.01 0.33 0.38 0.51 0.90 0.29 0.23 0.28 2.93 513,7001999 0.02 0.35 0.28 0.60 0.90 0.19 0.27 0.30 2.89 514,1662000 0.01 0.34 0.25 0.52 0.86 0.20 0.21 0.30 2.68 517,8022001 0.02 0.36 0.25 0.48 0.65 0.16 0.19 0.27 2.37 522,1212002 0.02 0.30 0.25 0.43 0.73 0.16 0.18 0.26 2.34 528,8062003 0.01 0.32 0.19 0.40 0.70 0.13 0.16 0.24 2.14 533,5002004 0.02 0.38 0.23 0.36 0.64 0.13 0.12 0.23 2.12 537,4602005 0.02 0.28 0.22 0.36 0.56 0.08 0.14 0.26 1.92 543,4162006 0.03 0.25 0.24 0.30 0.59 0.07 0.13 0.24 1.85 547,7272007 0.02 0.25 0.25 0.35 0.52 0.07 0.11 0.19 1.76 549,3872008 546,7252009 543,038

Page 28: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

Source: JRA ACT Data (JRA_ADMITS 08 Table 8E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Total Commitments

Page 29: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Homicide

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Sex

Page 30: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Robbery

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Assault

Page 31: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Burglary/Theft

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Motor Vehicle Theft

Page 32: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Drug

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other

Page 33: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

JRA COMMITMENTS BY OFM CATEGORY

Page 34: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

JUVENILE COMMITMENTS TO STATE (JRA) INSTITUTIONS

Last Actual

3 Year Average

2 Year Trend

FY MurderSerious

Sex Other Sex RobberySerious Assault

Other Assault

Serious Property Burglary 2

Other Property

Drug Crimes

Other Crimes Total

2004 6 155 40 95 102 103 30 204 267 74 51 1,1272005 11 142 24 87 94 85 23 159 235 62 47 9692006 8 113 26 114 87 84 21 154 254 76 61 9982007 7 109 30 113 99 78 18 151 207 65 54 9312008 3 106 19 102 111 65 32 142 197 43 44 8642009 6 102 25 95 122 55 23 135 168 61 53 8452010 6 101 25 95 122 55 23 135 167 60 52 8412011 6 101 25 95 121 55 23 134 166 60 52 839

Rate/1,000 Age 12-17 Population

FY MurderSerious

Sex Other Sex RobberySerious Assault

Other Assault

Serious Property Burglary 2

Other Property

Drug Crimes

Other Crimes Total 12 - 17

2004 0.0112 0.2884 0.0744 0.1768 0.1898 0.1916 0.0558 0.3796 0.4968 0.1377 0.0949 2.0969 537,460

2005 0.0202 0.2613 0.0442 0.1601 0.1730 0.1564 0.0423 0.2926 0.4324 0.1141 0.0865 1.7832 543,416

2006 0.0146 0.2063 0.0475 0.2081 0.1588 0.1534 0.0383 0.2812 0.4637 0.1388 0.1114 1.8221 547,727

2007 0.0127 0.1984 0.0546 0.2057 0.1802 0.1420 0.0328 0.2749 0.3768 0.1183 0.0983 1.6946 549,387

2008 0.0055 0.1939 0.0348 0.1866 0.2030 0.1189 0.0585 0.2597 0.3603 0.0787 0.0805 1.5803 546,725

2009 0.0109 0.1877 0.0456 0.1758 0.2251 0.1017 0.0432 0.2490 0.3086 0.1119 0.0967 1.5562 543,038

2010 0.0109 0.1877 0.0456 0.1758 0.2251 0.1017 0.0432 0.2490 0.3086 0.1119 0.0967 1.5562 540,255

2011 0.0109 0.1877 0.0456 0.1758 0.2251 0.1017 0.0432 0.2490 0.3086 0.1119 0.0967 1.5562 539,268

Source: JRA ACT Data (ACT_ADMITSm 07 Table 7E

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total 2.0969 1.7832 1.8221 1.6946 1.5803 1.5562 1.5562 1.5562

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Ag

e 12

-17

Calendar Year

Total Commitments

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total 2.0969 1.7832 1.8221 1.6946 1.5803

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Total

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Murder 0.0112 0.0202 0.0146 0.0127 0.0055

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Murder

Page 36: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Serious Sex 0.2884 0.2613 0.2063 0.1984 0.1939

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Sex

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Other Sex 0.0744 0.0442 0.0475 0.0546 0.0348

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Sex

Page 37: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Robbery 0.1768 0.1601 0.2081 0.2057 0.1866

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Robbery

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Serious Assault 0.1898 0.1730 0.1588 0.1802 0.2030

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Assault

Page 38: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Other Assault 0.1916 0.1564 0.1534 0.1420 0.1189

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Assault

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Serious Property 0.0558 0.0423 0.0383 0.0328 0.0585

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Property

Page 39: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Burglary 2 0.3796 0.2926 0.2812 0.2749 0.2597

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Burglary 2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Other Property 0.4968 0.4324 0.4637 0.3768 0.3603

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Property

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Drug Crimes 0.1377 0.1141 0.1388 0.1183 0.0787

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Drug Crimes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Other Crimes 0.0949 0.0865 0.1114 0.0983 0.0805

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Crimes

Page 41: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total 2.0969 1.7832 1.8221 1.6946 1.5803 1.5562 1.5562 1.5562

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Total

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Murder 0.0112 0.0202 0.0146 0.0127 0.0055 0.0109 0.0109 0.0109

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.02

0.03

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Murder

Page 42: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Serious Sex 0.2884 0.2613 0.2063 0.1984 0.1939 0.1877 0.1877 0.1877

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Sex

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other Sex 0.0744 0.0442 0.0475 0.0546 0.0348 0.0456 0.0456 0.0456

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Sex

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Robbery 0.1768 0.1601 0.2081 0.2057 0.1866 0.1758 0.1758 0.1758

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Robbery

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Serious Assault 0.1898 0.1730 0.1588 0.1802 0.2030 0.2251 0.2251 0.2251

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Assault

Page 44: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other Assault 0.1916 0.1564 0.1534 0.1420 0.1189 0.1017 0.1017 0.1017

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Assault

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Serious Property 0.0558 0.0423 0.0383 0.0328 0.0585 0.0432 0.0432 0.0432

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Serious Property

Page 45: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Burglary 2 0.3796 0.2926 0.2812 0.2749 0.2597 0.2490 0.2490 0.2490

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Burglary 2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other Property 0.4968 0.4324 0.4637 0.3768 0.3603 0.3086 0.3086 0.3086

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Property

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Drug Crimes 0.1377 0.1141 0.1388 0.1183 0.0787 0.1119 0.1119 0.1119

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Drug Crimes

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other Crimes 0.0949 0.0865 0.1114 0.0983 0.0805 0.0967 0.0967 0.0967

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Ag

e 1

2-1

7

Calendar Year

Other Crimes

Page 47: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

REPORTED CRIMES

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary TheftAuto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft Total Total

1985 235 2,475 6,010 10,519 81,519 179,494 13,008 293,261 19,239 94,528 293,261 293,2611986 228 2,441 6,242 11,128 84,888 194,181 14,365 313,473 20,040 99,252 313,473 313,4731987 264 2,437 6,690 11,203 87,802 198,339 18,457 325,191 20,593 106,259 325,191 325,1911988 268 2,644 6,941 12,087 86,538 202,179 20,347 331,004 21,940 106,885 331,004 331,0041989 218 3,016 6,919 12,985 75,359 199,348 22,369 320,214 23,138 97,729 320,214 320,2141990 243 3,170 6,472 14,968 62,562 197,850 22,188 307,454 24,854 84,750 307,454 307,4541991 221 3,605 7,400 15,319 61,711 205,108 22,228 315,593 26,546 83,939 315,593 315,5931992 261 3,722 7,255 16,490 58,170 209,231 24,416 319,546 27,728 82,587 319,546 319,5461993 270 3,334 7,210 16,164 55,286 203,784 23,775 309,823 26,978 79,061 309,823 309,8231994 305 3,164 7,457 16,359 55,888 211,748 26,844 321,766 27,286 82,732 321,766 321,7661995 280 3,139 7,161 15,558 59,092 222,657 30,029 337,917 26,138 89,121 337,917 337,9171996 261 2,858 6,584 14,211 58,974 217,454 29,070 329,412 23,914 88,044 329,412 329,4121997 242 2,880 6,750 14,906 61,897 213,959 31,872 332,507 24,779 93,769 332,507 332,5071998 218 2,805 6,496 14,546 59,179 205,752 34,845 323,840 24,064 94,024 323,840 323,8401999 172 2,714 5,864 13,157 54,880 192,749 33,984 303,520 21,907 88,864 303,520 303,5202000 197 2,719 5,868 13,181 53,600 192,187 35,177 302,928 21,965 88,777 302,928 302,9282001 179 2,590 5,924 12,448 52,502 192,001 38,700 304,344 21,141 91,202 304,344 304,3442002 185 2,698 5,795 12,188 54,257 189,962 40,194 305,278 20,865 94,451 305,278 305,2782003 185 2,804 5,790 12,574 58,243 192,079 40,889 312,563 21,353 99,131 312,563 312,5632004 194 2,873 5,975 12,479 61,180 198,182 43,956 324,839 21,521 105,136 324,839 324,8392005 205 2,764 5,779 12,835 59,892 195,128 49,091 325,694 21,583 108,983 325,694 325,6942006 190 2,704 6,463 12,802 58,079 180,879 45,569 306,684 22,158 103,647 306,684 306,6842007 178 2,570 6,062 12,727 52,095 167,905 37,057 278,595 21,537 89,152 278,595 278,59520082009

Rate/1,000 Age 12-17 Age 12-39 Age 18-39

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Theft

Auto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft

Adult and Juvenile Adult Only

1985 0.6 6.4 15.4 27.0 209.4 461.1 33.4 753.4 49.4 242.8 141.8 174.61986 0.6 6.4 16.3 29.1 221.7 507.0 37.5 818.5 52.3 259.2 151.4 185.71987 0.7 6.5 17.7 29.7 232.9 526.0 49.0 862.5 54.6 281.8 157.1 192.11988 0.7 7.1 18.7 32.5 233.0 544.3 54.8 891.2 59.1 287.8 158.9 193.41989 0.6 8.2 18.7 35.2 204.2 540.1 60.6 867.5 62.7 264.8 151.6 183.81990 0.6 8.3 17.0 39.3 164.3 519.6 58.3 807.5 65.3 222.6 142.8 173.41991 0.6 9.1 18.7 38.6 155.6 517.1 56.0 795.6 66.9 211.6 143.2 174.61992 0.6 8.9 17.4 39.5 139.3 500.9 58.5 765.0 66.4 197.7 142.4 175.01993 0.6 7.6 16.3 36.6 125.3 462.0 53.9 702.4 61.2 179.2 135.8 168.31994 0.7 6.9 16.3 35.7 122.0 462.4 58.6 702.7 59.6 180.7 139.7 174.31995 0 6 6 6 15 0 32 6 123 8 466 6 62 9 708 1 54 8 186 7 145 1 182 41995 0.6 6.6 15.0 32.6 123.8 466.6 62.9 708.1 54.8 186.7 145.1 182.41996 0.5 5.8 13.4 28.8 119.6 441.1 59.0 668.1 48.5 178.6 140.2 177.51997 0.5 5.7 13.3 29.4 122.1 422.2 62.9 656.2 48.9 185.0 140.3 178.41998 0.4 5.5 12.6 28.3 115.2 400.5 67.8 630.4 46.8 183.0 135.8 173.21999 0.3 5.3 11.4 25.6 106.7 374.9 66.1 590.3 42.6 172.8 126.8 161.52000 0.4 5.3 11.3 25.5 103.5 371.2 67.9 585.0 42.4 171.4 126.1 160.82001 0.3 5.0 11.3 23.8 100.6 367.7 74.1 582.9 40.5 174.7 126.1 161.02002 0.3 5.1 11.0 23.0 102.6 359.2 76.0 577.3 39.5 178.6 126.1 161.32003 0.3 5.3 10.9 23.6 109.2 360.0 76.6 585.9 40.0 185.8 128.9 165.32004 0.4 5.3 11.1 23.2 113.8 368.7 81.8 604.4 40.0 195.6 133.4 171.12005 0.4 5.1 10.6 23.6 110.2 359.1 90.3 599.3 39.7 200.6 132.6 170.32006 0.3 4.9 11.8 23.4 106.0 330.2 83.2 559.9 40.5 189.2 122.8 157.32007 0.3 4.7 11.0 23.2 94.8 305.6 67.5 507.1 39.2 162.3 109.9 140.320082009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

1,0

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Total Felonies

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REPORTED CRIMES

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Murder

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Rape

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Robbery

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Assault

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Burglary/Theft

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p A

ge

12

-17

Calendar Year

Motor Vehicle Theft

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JUVENILE FELONY ARRESTS

Page 53: Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in … · Juvenile Rehabilitation Caseload Forecasts Year in Review FY2008: JULY 2007 THROUGH JUNE 2008 STATE OF WASHINGTON CASELOAD

JUVENILE FELONY ARRESTS

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary TheftAuto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft

Total Adult + Juvenile Total Adult

1985 11 122 359 716 4,977 16,686 1,598 1,513 492 26,475 614 1,208 6,576 73,578 47,1031986 21 110 388 643 4,373 16,738 1,370 1,575 447 25,665 557 1,162 5,743 75,964 50,2991987 18 135 436 701 4,125 16,628 1,799 1,626 510 25,977 645 1,290 5,925 80,610 54,6321988 26 166 447 827 3,943 16,489 1,961 2,011 494 26,364 659 1,466 5,904 91,092 64,7281989 23 183 477 909 3,620 16,021 2,027 1,924 439 25,622 622 1,592 5,647 91,298 65,6761990 32 230 520 1,125 3,477 16,999 2,575 1,301 555 26,814 785 1,907 6,052 88,458 61,6441991 21 245 768 1,319 3,882 18,756 2,610 1,225 583 29,410 828 2,354 6,492 90,275 60,8651992 31 276 742 1,354 3,996 19,362 3,025 1,446 600 30,832 875 2,403 7,021 91,169 60,3361993 37 262 795 1,420 3,824 18,657 2,522 1,836 620 29,973 883 2,514 6,345 89,787 59,8151994 63 283 987 1,839 3,848 21,691 2,633 2,663 742 34,749 1,025 3,172 6,481 100,913 66,1641995 56 204 845 1,615 3,512 20,615 2,376 3,041 389 32,654 593 2,721 5,889 99,047 66,3931996 54 185 855 1,440 3,724 20,633 1,858 3,606 374 32,729 559 2,534 5,582 96,443 63,7141997 60 220 821 1,419 3,253 17,925 1,786 4,364 374 30,222 594 2,520 5,039 95,456 65,2341998 29 187 815 1,301 3,307 15,843 1,694 3,257 320 26,753 507 2,332 5,001 89,780 63,0271999 29 215 585 1,269 2,856 14,378 1,491 3,336 355 24,514 570 2,098 4,347 85,931 61,4172000 33 217 584 1,188 2,478 13,165 1,458 3,557 345 23,024 562 2,021 3,936 87,466 64,4432001 24 176 520 1,160 2,161 11,005 1,298 3,629 335 20,308 511 1,881 3,458 84,361 64,0532002 15 196 461 1,017 2,337 10,655 1,139 3,533 355 19,707 551 1,688 3,476 80,135 60,4282003 9 225 466 999 2,356 10,272 1,074 3,526 345 19,272 569 1,699 3,430 83,233 63,9612004 12 139 446 1,006 2,082 9,795 950 3,022 327 17,780 466 1,603 3,032 81,616 63,8362005 20 145 447 925 2,037 8,801 849 3,059 270 16,552 416 1,537 2,885 81,537 64,9852006 25 146 556 885 2,046 8,206 729 3,253 231 16,076 377 1,612 2,775 84,869 68,7932007 18 136 624 983 1,944 8,875 592 3,291 212 16,676 348 1,761 2,536 84,344 67,66820082009

Rate/1,000 Age 12-17 Age 12-39 Age 18-39

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Theft

Auto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft

Adult and Juvenile Adult Only

1985 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 12.8 42.9 4.1 3.9 1.3 68.0 1.6 3.1 16.9 35.6 28.01986 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 11.4 43.7 3.6 4.1 1.2 67.0 1.5 3.0 15.0 36.7 29.81987 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.9 10.9 44.1 4.8 4.3 1.4 68.9 1.7 3.4 15.7 38.9 32.31988 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 10.6 44.4 5.3 5.4 1.3 71.0 1.8 3.9 15.9 43.7 37.81989 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 9.8 43.4 5.5 5.2 1.2 69.4 1.7 4.3 15.3 43.2 37.71990 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 9.1 44.6 6.8 3.4 1.5 70.4 2.1 5.0 15.9 41.1 34.81991 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.3 9.8 47.3 6.6 3.1 1.5 74.1 2.1 5.9 16.4 41.0 33.71992 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.2 9.6 46.4 7.2 3.5 1.4 73.8 2.1 5.8 16.8 40.6 33.01993 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 8.7 42.3 5.7 4.2 1.4 68.0 2.0 5.7 14.4 39.3 32.51994 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.0 8.4 47.4 5.7 5.8 1.6 75.9 2.2 6.9 14.2 43.8 35.91995 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.4 7.4 43.2 5.0 6.4 0.8 68.4 1.2 5.7 12.3 42.5 35.81996 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.9 7.6 41.8 3.8 7.3 0.8 66.4 1.1 5.1 11.3 41.1 34.31997 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.8 6.4 35.4 3.5 8.6 0.7 59.6 1.2 5.0 9.9 40.3 35.01998 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.5 6.4 30.8 3.3 6.3 0.6 52.1 1.0 4.5 9.7 37.7 33.71999 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.6 28.0 2.9 6.5 0.7 47.7 1.1 4.1 8.5 35.9 32.72000 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.8 25.4 2.8 6.9 0.7 44.5 1.1 3.9 7.6 36.4 34.22001 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.1 21.1 2.5 7.0 0.6 38.9 1.0 3.6 6.6 35.0 33.92002 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.4 20.1 2.2 6.7 0.7 37.3 1.0 3.2 6.6 33.1 31.92003 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.4 19.3 2.0 6.6 0.6 36.1 1.1 3.2 6.4 34.3 33.82004 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 18.2 1.8 5.6 0.6 33.1 0.9 3.0 5.6 33.5 33.62005 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.7 16.2 1.6 5.6 0.5 30.5 0.8 2.8 5.3 33.2 34.02006 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 3.7 15.0 1.3 5.9 0.4 29.3 0.7 2.9 5.1 34.0 35.32007 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 3.5 16.2 1.1 6.0 0.4 30.4 0.6 3.2 4.6 33.3 34.120082009

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Po

p A

ge

12-1

7

Calendar Year

Total Juvenile Felony Arrest Rate

Sources: WASPC, CFC

Calendar Year

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ADULT FELONY ARRESTS

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary TheftAuto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft

1985 209 717 986 3,564 4,473 27,702 1,001 6,289 2,162 47,103 2,879 5,477 5,4751986 229 638 1,076 2,846 4,693 30,388 1,004 7,640 1,785 50,299 2,424 4,789 5,6971987 226 639 1,060 2,823 4,532 30,616 1,247 11,578 1,911 54,632 2,550 4,748 5,7791988 289 823 1,237 3,771 5,040 33,694 1,371 16,458 2,045 64,728 2,868 6,120 6,4111989 227 889 1,301 3,559 4,990 33,083 1,480 17,988 2,159 65,676 3,048 5,976 6,4701990 224 894 1,076 4,053 4,186 32,524 1,254 14,867 2,567 61,644 3,460 6,247 5,4401991 198 938 1,148 4,559 4,158 31,503 1,408 14,183 2,770 60,865 3,708 6,842 5,5661992 226 881 1,317 4,403 4,136 31,197 1,309 14,048 2,820 60,336 3,700 6,827 5,4451993 207 940 1,218 4,300 3,549 30,263 1,194 15,412 2,731 59,815 3,671 6,665 4,7431994 269 907 1,402 4,871 3,800 31,636 1,315 19,542 2,420 66,164 3,328 7,450 5,1151995 226 889 1,375 6,309 3,959 30,645 1,601 19,463 1,927 66,393 2,816 8,799 5,5601996 221 778 1,238 4,837 3,756 30,226 1,317 19,400 1,940 63,714 2,718 7,074 5,0731997 195 775 1,387 5,156 3,958 27,546 1,412 22,990 1,814 65,234 2,589 7,513 5,3711998 174 761 1,356 5,096 4,094 24,804 1,522 23,631 1,588 63,027 2,349 7,387 5,6161999 177 760 1,333 4,903 3,978 23,746 1,665 23,473 1,382 61,417 2,142 7,172 5,6432000 190 718 1,375 5,322 3,933 23,020 1,875 26,391 1,618 64,443 2,337 7,606 5,8082001 155 688 1,509 5,241 3,922 22,661 1,750 26,542 1,585 64,053 2,273 7,594 5,6722002 144 788 1,347 4,612 3,703 22,351 1,617 24,442 1,423 60,428 2,211 6,892 5,3212003 144 760 1,386 4,885 4,078 23,481 1,720 26,231 1,276 63,961 2,036 7,175 5,7982004 166 769 1,483 4,852 4,532 24,632 1,786 24,258 1,358 63,836 2,127 7,269 6,3182005 207 754 1,449 4,935 4,603 24,686 1,985 25,202 1,163 64,985 1,917 7,346 6,5882006 185 789 1,604 4,870 4,759 22,398 2,038 30,717 1,432 68,793 2,221 7,448 6,7972007 158 749 1,601 4,894 4,164 23,527 1,704 29,792 1,077 67,668 1,826 7,403 5,86820082009

Rate/1,000 Age 18-39

CY Murder Rape Robbery Assault Burglary Theft

Auto Theft Drug

Other Sex Total

Rape & Sex Violent

Burglary & Auto theft

1985 0.1 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.7 16.5 0.6 3.7 1.3 28.0 1.7 3.3 3.31986 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.8 18.0 0.6 4.5 1.1 29.8 1.4 2.8 3.41987 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.7 18.1 0.7 6.8 1.1 32.3 1.5 2.8 3.41988 0.2 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.9 19.7 0.8 9.6 1.2 37.8 1.7 3.6 3.71989 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.0 2.9 19.0 0.8 10.3 1.2 37.7 1.7 3.4 3.71990 0.1 0.5 0.6 2.3 2.4 18.3 0.7 8.4 1.4 34.8 2.0 3.5 3.11991 0.1 0.5 0.6 2.5 2.3 17.4 0.8 7.8 1.5 33.7 2.1 3.8 3.11992 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.4 2.3 17.1 0.7 7.7 1.5 33.0 2.0 3.7 3.01993 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.3 1.9 16.4 0.6 8.4 1.5 32.5 2.0 3.6 2.61994 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.6 2.1 17.1 0.7 10.6 1.3 35.9 1.8 4.0 2.81995 0.1 0.5 0.7 3.4 2.1 16.5 0.9 10.5 1.0 35.8 1.5 4.8 3.01996 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 16.3 0.7 10.5 1.0 34.3 1.5 3.8 2.71997 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.8 2.1 14.8 0.8 12.3 1.0 35.0 1.4 4.0 2.91998 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.7 2.2 13.3 0.8 12.6 0.8 33.7 1.3 3.9 3.01999 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.6 2.1 12.6 0.9 12.5 0.7 32.7 1.1 3.8 3.02000 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.8 2.1 12.2 1.0 14.0 0.9 34.2 1.2 4.0 3.12001 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.8 2.1 12.0 0.9 14.0 0.8 33.9 1.2 4.0 3.02002 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.4 2.0 11.8 0.9 12.9 0.8 31.9 1.2 3.6 2.82003 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.6 2.2 12.4 0.9 13.9 0.7 33.8 1.1 3.8 3.12004 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.6 2.4 13.0 0.9 12.8 0.7 33.6 1.1 3.8 3.32005 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.6 2.4 12.9 1.0 13.2 0.6 34.0 1.0 3.8 3.42006 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.5 2.4 11.5 1.0 15.8 0.7 35.3 1.1 3.8 3.52007 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.5 2.1 11.8 0.9 15.0 0.5 34.1 0.9 3.7 3.020082009

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

Po

p A

ge

18-3

9

Calendar Year

Total Adult Felony Arrest Rate

Sources: WASPC, CFC

Calendar Year

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Murder

Juvenile

Adult

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Rape

Juvenile

Adult

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Robbery

Juvenile

Adult

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Assault

Juvenile

Adult

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Burglary/Theft

Juvenile

Adult

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Motor Vehicle Theft

Juvenile

Adult

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VOLUME

42 727 485 889 4960 2248 842 363354 637 437 899 4420 1965 932 360755 669 650 1058 4880 2302 1190 235543 653 641 1140 5065 2317 1408 2701

RATE

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Drug

Juvenile

Adult

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ra

te p

er

10

00

Po

p (

Ag

e 1

2-1

7 o

r 1

8-3

9)

Calendar Year

Other Sex

Juvenile

Adult

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OFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT POPULATION FORECASTOFM Pop FC updated: 11/8/2007

Male Female Total State Male Female Total

12 to 17 18 to 39 12 to 17 18 to 39 12 to 17 18 to 39 12 to 39 10 to 17 10 to 17 10 to 17

1983 203,279 839,334 192,969 814,734 396,248 1,654,068 2,050,316 1983 263,774 251,055 514,829

1984 201,524 843,934 191,214 819,482 392,738 1,663,416 2,056,154 1984 259,800 247,125 506,925

1985 199,535 851,922 189,739 827,613 389,274 1,679,535 2,068,809 1985 258,613 245,620 504,233

1986 196,475 856,290 186,491 831,825 382,966 1,688,115 2,071,081 1986 256,945 243,881 500,826

1987 193,388 858,731 183,659 833,988 377,047 1,692,719 2,069,766 1987 255,749 242,879 498,628

1988 190,403 868,194 181,026 843,082 371,429 1,711,276 2,082,705 1988 254,856 242,775 497,631

1989 189,556 883,508 179,553 858,949 369,109 1,742,457 2,111,566 1989 256,751 243,824 500,575

1990 195,899 897,717 184,871 875,037 380,770 1,772,754 2,153,524 1990 268,814 253,798 522,612

1991 204,401 915,805 192,278 891,326 396,679 1,807,131 2,203,810 1991 283,716 266,835 550,551

1992 215,224 926,326 202,457 899,761 417,681 1,826,087 2,243,768 1992 295,162 277,984 573,146

1993 227,450 934,929 213,644 906,139 441,094 1,841,068 2,282,162 1993 308,694 290,816 599,510

1994 236,060 938,460 221,855 907,069 457,915 1,845,529 2,303,444 1994 319,643 300,982 620,625

1995 245,862 942,978 231,371 909,183 477,233 1,852,161 2,329,394 1995 330,259 311,084 641,343

1996 254,319 945,712 238,704 910,127 493,023 1,855,839 2,348,862 1996 340,016 320,000 660,016

1997 261,383 950,905 245,351 912,734 506,734 1,863,639 2,370,373 1997 346,891 326,264 673,155

1998 264,652 955,562 249,048 914,672 513,700 1,870,234 2,383,934 1998 350,292 329,747 680,039

1999 264,770 961,262 249,396 917,946 514,166 1,879,208 2,393,374 1999 353,283 332,896 686,179

2000 266,040 961,903 251,762 922,538 517,802 1,884,441 2,402,243 2000 356,494 337,134 693,628

2001 267,941 966,358 254,180 924,399 522,121 1,890,757 2,412,878 2001 360,322 341,561 701,883

2002 271,199 968,194 257,607 924,260 528,806 1,892,454 2,421,260 2002 363,083 344,950 708,033

2003 273,449 968,141 260,051 922,976 533,500 1,891,117 2,424,617 2003 364,386 346,099 710,485

2004 275,605 972,024 261,855 926,211 537,460 1,898,235 2,435,695 2004 364,451 345,910 710,361

2005 279,000 979,498 264,416 933,192 543,416 1,912,690 2,456,106 2005 366,032 347,279 713,311

2006 281,259 998,918 266,468 951,212 547,727 1,950,130 2,497,857 2006 368,442 349,458 717,900

2007 281,947 1,017,639 267,440 968,101 549,387 1,985,740 2,535,127 2007 369,229 350,568 719,797

2008 280,363 1,037,216 266,362 986,143 546,725 2,023,359 2,570,084 2008 368,400 350,238 718,638

2009 278,382 1,054,025 264,656 1,002,860 543,038 2,056,885 2,599,923 2009 367,785 349,814 717,599

2010 276,956 1,065,605 263,299 1,014,614 540,255 2,080,219 2,620,474 2009 366,887 348,867 715,754

2011 276,143 1,077,612 263,125 1,025,926 539,268 2,103,538 2,642,806 2009 367,366 349,946 717,312

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

12 to 17 396,248 392,738 389,274 382,966 377,047 371,429 369,109 380,770 396,679 417,681 441,094

18 to 39 1,654,068 1,663,416 1,679,535 1,688,115 1,692,719 1,711,276 1,742,457 1,772,754 1,807,131 1,826,087 1,841,068

10 to 17 514,829 506,925 504,233 500,826 498,628 497,631 500,575 522,612 550,551 573,146 599,510

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

12 to 17 457,915 477,233 493,023 506,734 513,700 514,166 517,802 522,121 528,806 533,500 537,460

18 to 39 1,845,529 1,852,161 1,855,839 1,863,639 1,870,234 1,879,208 1,884,441 1,890,757 1,892,454 1,891,117 1,898,235

10 to 17 620,625 641,343 660,016 673,155 680,039 686,179 693,628 701,883 708,033 710,485 710,361

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

12 to 17 543,416 547,727 549,387 546,725 543,038 540,255 539,268

18 to 39 1,912,690 1,950,130 1,985,740 2,023,359 2,056,885 2,080,219 2,103,538

10 to 17 713,311 717,900 719,797 718,638 717,599 715,754 717,312