julie keister university of washington school of oceanography
DESCRIPTION
What the zooplankton taught me about climate change …my education in the GLOBEC Program. Julie Keister University of Washington School of Oceanography. U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program. Long-Term Observation Program. Mesoscale Process Studies. Ocean color. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Julie KeisterUniversity of WashingtonSchool of Oceanography
What the zooplankton taught me about climate change
…my education in the GLOBEC Program
U.S. GLOBECNortheast Pacific Program
To provide climatology background and variability
Long-TermObservation Program
Mesoscale ProcessStudies
Core NEP Hypothesis:Spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation is the dominant forcing on zooplankton distribution, biomass, production, retention and loss from coastal areas.
Ocean color Large scale climate variability
Mesoscale physical variability
Zooplankton variability
Ecosystem change
U.S. GLOBECNortheast Pacific Program
Newport
Cape Blanco
Crescent City
Eureka
Pt. Arena
Mesoscale Process Study Region
Surface Temperature
Cruises: June and August 2000 / 20023 vessels per cruise (Survey, Process, Fish)
NEP Mesoscale Process Studies
Survey vessel:
• SeaSoar• Bio-acoustics• ADCP• Optical Plankton
Counter• AC-9 (optics)
Process vessel:
• Zooplankton nets• CTD casts• Rate measurements• Mammal and seabird
observations
Fishing vessel:
• Nekton• Salmon prey fields• CTD casts
°C 1 August 2000
GLOBEC August 2000 CCS Mesoscale cruise Satellite SST :
RV New Horizon
6
Sea surface temperature from the AVHRR
ADCP figure from Barth et al. 2005
August 2000 Mesoscale cruise:
ADCP profile:
East component
(cm/s)(blue = west)
17m
200m 17m
200m
North component
(cm/s)(pink=north)
-20 cm/s
20-30 cm/s
August 2000Strong physical control of biological patterns
42N
43N
44N
CopepodBiomass
Ocean color
125W127W 127W
Sea Surface Temperature
125W125W127W
Calanus marshallae(cold-water, boreal
species)
Calanus pacificus(warm-water species)
125W127W 125W127W
Keister, Peterson, and Pierce, 2009
Sea surface temperature from the AVHRR
Population and biomass loss from coastal regions:0-100 m velocities from
ADCP
>1200 tons C / day
>900 tons C / day
Loss of ~2% / day
of total coastal
biomass
Keister, Peterson, and Pierce, 2009
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
Sea level anomaly along offshore + 2o line
Latitud
e
SSH (c
m)
Jan9
3
Jan9
4
Jan9
5
Jan9
6
Jan9
7
Jan9
8
Jan9
9
Jan0
0
Jan0
1
Jan0
2
Jan0
3
Jan0
4
Jan0
5
Jan0
6
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2548
46
44
42
40
38
36
Sea level anomaly (cm)
Latit
ude
(°N
)
1o
Jan July Jan-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
48
46
44
42
40
38
36
Energy (cm2)in 4-12 week periods
1o
Jan July Jan-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
25
20
15
10
5
0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulationJ Keister and PT Strub, J Geophys. Res., 2008
Index of Mesoscale (4-12 week period) Energy
Keister and Strub, 2008
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
4-12 week variability in SSH averaged over 36° to 43°N, 1° to 3° offshore
Nor
mal
ized
po
wer
0
1
Mechanisms remained unclear……
Large scale climate variability
Mesoscale physical variability and transport dynamics
Zooplankton variability
Ecosystem change
Dominance of the mesoscale?
126 124 12236
38
40
42
44
46
48
Long-Term Observation Program
Newport Hydrographic (NH) Line
U.S. GLOBECNortheast Pacific Program
Newport
Cape Blanco
Crescent City
Eureka
Pt. Arena
NH5 zooplankton time seriesNH10 mooring
El Niño distributional shifts:
Nyctiphanes simplex• Coastal, cold-water taxon
Sagitta pseudoserratodentata Sagitta hexapteraCentropages bradyi• Offshore taxa
Keister et al. 2005
El Niño distributional shifts:
Keister et al. 2005
0
0.5
1Nyctiphanes simplex abundance at NH-5
Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01Jan 96
12 Dec ‘9712 Nov ‘98
Kosro 2002: Anomalous poleward velocities at NH10= 13.7 cm/s (350 km/month)
• Estimated 3.3 months to arrive off Oregon• Actual arrival – 3 weeks later
1
2
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98Ju
l-98
Jan-
99Ju
l-99
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04Ju
l-04
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Quantifying zooplankton community variability
Community cluster time series
Axis 1 (71%)
Axis
2 (1
3%)
Non-Metric Multidimensional ordination
Warm-water/oceanic community
Cold-water/coastal community
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2
1
-2
-1
0
1
2
CC
I sco
re
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
PC1
of c
opep
ods
CCI Timeseries
-2
-1
0
1
2C
CI s
core
Warm Cold Warm Cold
Monthly anomalies
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20081996
“Copepod Community Index” = CCIOrdination Axis 1 scores
PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01
Calanus marshallae
Pseudocalanus mimus
Acartialongiremis
Paracalanus parvus
Oithonasimilis3m
m
Not all copepods are created equal!
Boreal species = larger and lipid filled
Calanus
Warm yearsCold years
Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:
170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
170 160 150 140 130 120 11025
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65PDO - Cold Phase PDO - Warm Phase
Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change.
Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982
Basin-scale control of ecosystems?
E. Di LorenzoJ. KeisterA. ThomasPT StrubWT PetersonS. BogradP. FranksF. SchwingK. ChaakA. Bracco
International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford) collaborators on physics and biological variability
Transport pathways explain an important part of copepod community structure:
The test?Compare modeled transport to zoop. observations
Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)• 10 km resolution• 30 vertical layers• boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas
climatology• nudged at open boundaries• forced by NCEP winds and SST• 1950-2008
Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales.
Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.
FromEAST
FromSOUTH
FromNORTH
FromWEST
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
-2-10123
-3-2-1012
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-10123
Model hindcast CCI =
NORTH tracer +
SOUTH tracer+
EAST tracer+
WEST tracer+ ε
Passive Tracer Time Series
Keister et al. 2011
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
R = 0.36
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
(5 year lowpass)
R = 0.95
Model hindcast CCIObserved CCI
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
(5 yearlowpass)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
R = 0.9
Model hindcast CCIModel PDO
Keister et al. 2011
Advective control of zooplankton communities?
How do large-scale climate modes drive coherent ecosystem changes around ocean basins?
1960-1975 1981-1999
Low-Frequency Zooplankton and Transport Dynamics in the KOE
S. Chiba (JAMSTEC, Japan) A. Davis (GaTech, USA)J. Keister (UW, USA) H. Song (UCSD)B. Taguchi (JAMSTEC)E. Di Lorenzo (GaTech)
OFES Model10 km resolution 1950-2009
Change in distributions of warm and cold-water copepods pre- and post- regime shift
Chiba et al. 2010
Abundance
What I we learned
A LOT !!Large scale climate modes
Mesoscale transport dynamics
Basin-scale transport dynamics
Zooplankton variability
Ecosystem change
Looking ahead:
• Interdisciplinary science is necessary to understand complex systems and problems
• Time series observations are gold“You can learn a lot by looking”
• Need big thinkers, synthesis ideas
• Trend toward larger collaborative, or smaller, individual, projects?
Looking forward to future collaborations !
Emanuel Di LorenzoGA Tech U
ROMS Modeler
Rodger Harvey, Se-Jong JuUniversity of Maryland
Euphausiid aging
Steve Bograd, Frank SchwingNOAA SWFSC
Jane Huyer, Bob Smith, Pat Wheeler, Ev and Barry Sherr, Mike Kosro
NEP GLOBEC LTOP
Patrick ResslerNOAA AFSCBioacoustics
Tim Cowles, Hal Batchelder, Ted Strub, Bill Peterson
Ph D Committee
Ric Brodeur, Kym Jacobson, Bob Emmett, Bill Peterson, Tom
Wainwright, Peter Lawson, Ed CasillasNOAA NWFSC, Salmon biology
Collaborations developed, friends made
Cynthia SuchmanNPRB
Dave MackasFish and Oceans Canada
Zooplankton ecology
The Peterson Lab!Zooplankton ecology
Jaime GomezCICIMAR, MexicoEuphausiid ecology
Sanae Chiba, Hiro SugisakiJAMSTEC, Japan
Andy Thomas, Jack Barth, Steve Pierce, Ricardo Letelier, Yvette Spitz, Mike Kosro, Meng ZhouGLOBEC Mesoscale Studies