julie e. keister, bethellee herrmann, andrew mandovi and parker … · puget sound indicator...
TRANSCRIPT
Julie E. Keister, Bethellee Herrmann, Andrew Mandovi and Parker MacCready
University of Washington, School of Oceanography
Surface salinity
MacCready: MOSSEA Model
JEMS time series site• 2003-present, monthly (with many gaps)
• 140 m water depth
•CTD casts (T, S, D, DO)
• Bottle chlorophyll, nutrients, oxygen
•Zooplankton net tows• 75-cm diameter closing net• 150-μm mesh• Surface (0-40 m and 80-120 m) vertical net tows• *No flow meter until 2014
The Salish Sea
Strait of Juan de Fuca
Strait of Georgia
Puget Sound
MacCready: MOSSEA Model
Cold-water, upwelling-associated species assemblage
Offshore, warm-water oceanic species assemblage
Calanus marshallaeAcartia longiremisPseudocalanus mimus
Clausocalanus spp.Ctenocalanus vanusMesocalanus tenuicornis
Puget Sound species assemblage
Strait of Georgia species assemblage
Ditrichocorycaeus anglicus
Pseudocalanus minutus
Indicator species
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
PD
OIn
de
x
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0E
NS
OIn
de
x
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
NP
GO
Index
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
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20
20
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20
20
03
04
05
06
07
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12
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18
Temperature
Dep
th
Temperature
Salinity
Dep
th
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
3-m T anomaly
120-m T anomaly
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0 PDO
x x
x x
Axis 2 (26%)
Axi
s 1
(3
0%
)
SST
Zooplankton data Analysis: Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMS) Ordination of copepod species composition
• Copepod species abundances
• Relativized to species proportion in each sample
• Axis 1 rotated to SST
A
B
C
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
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18
Axi
s 1
Axi
s 2
Axes time series:
x x
x x
A
B
C
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20
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20
20
20
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20
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20
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20
20
03
04
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Axi
s 1
Axi
s 2
Anomalies,Seasonal cycles removed x x
x x
Axis 1 with 3-m Tr = -0.82
• Strong seasonal cycle
• Interannual anomalies
What species are primary drivers of community changes?
What controls their temporal variability?
r = -0.93
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
DITRICHOCORYCAEUS ANGLICUS
r = 0.51
Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):
Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator
Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:
r = -0.93
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
DITRICHOCORYCAEUS ANGLICUS
r = 0.51
Average seasonal cycles (#/m3):
Upwelling indicatorPuget Sound indicator
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ave
rag
e a
bu
nd
acn
e (
#/m
3)
Pseudocalanus mimus - S. Vancouver Island
x x x x
Strongest species correlations with Axis 1:
“Cascadia 1” - 2013-2018 hindcasts
1500 m (in Salish Sea) to 4500 m (ocean) horizontal resolution
40 vertical terrain-following layers
Nested in HYCOM
Tides, rivers, winds, heating
ROMS
Particle releases from 3 boundaries
Tested 3 approx. depth ranges (surface-trapped, mid, deep)
Released monthly, advected 30 days
Neutrally buoyant –tracked in 3D
Data = proportion of particles that entered domain from each release
Example particle trajectories: Feb 2013 – Strait of Juan de Fuca releases
Surface trapped ~30-50 m ~100-150 mD
epth
(m
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Deep
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Surface
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Deep
0
10
20
30
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Surface
% o
f p
arti
cle
s re
leas
ed
th
at r
eac
he
d t
he
do
mai
n
Seasonal cycles of particle trajectories
(coming soon)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Mid
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Mid
0
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60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Deep
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Surface
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Deep
0
10
20
30
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Surface
% o
f p
arti
cle
s re
leas
ed
th
at r
eac
he
d t
he
do
mai
n
Seasonal cycles of particle trajectories
(coming soon)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Puget Sound - Mid
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca - Mid
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar AprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
PSEUDOCALANUS MIMUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ave
rag
e a
bu
nd
acn
e (
#/m
3)
Pseudocalanus mimus - S. Vancouver Island
x x x x
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Strait of Juan de Fuca
surface particle
anomalies
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
x
Puget Sound
surface particle
anomalies
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Conclusions
Zooplankton community shows interannual variability correlated with climate indices.
Coastal versus inland indicator species show contrasting seasonality
Ocean-estuary advection is important, likely in combination with life history patterns.
Thank you!
University of WashingtonWA Dept of EcologyThe Salish Sea Marine Survival Project (SSMSP)NOAA and the Tulalip TribeCaptain and crew of the R/V ZoeaMoira Galbraith