joseph alcamo center for environmental systems research, kasselslide 1 security diagrams center for...

Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research, KasselSlide 1

Security Diagrams

Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo (Project leader)Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz (Project manager)

Adelphi Research, BerlinAlexander Carius Dennis Tänzler

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchRichard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik

A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought:

Results from the Security Diagrams ProjectFunded by German Research Ministry

Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community Montreal, Canada 16-18 October, 2003


Security DiagramsA New Approach to Assessing

Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project

Introduction & first results Joseph Alcamo

Using fuzzy set theory to address the

uncertainty of susceptibility to

drought

Frank Eierdanz

The socio-economic dimension of

assessing vulnerability to extreme

climate events

Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik

Assessing susceptibility of society:

1. An environmental psychology

perspective

2. A political science perspective

Doerthe Kroemker

Doerthe Kroemker (for Dennis

Tanzler & Alex Carius)

Summing Up Joseph Alcamo


Security DiagramsIntroduction to the Security Diagrams

Project

Overriding research question:

How can vulnerability of society to global change be quantified?


Security Diagrams

Why quantify vulnerability?

To provide framework for comparing and integrating different disciplinary perspectives.

To include vulnerability in climate impact models, in integrated models, and other models.


Security Diagrams

Susceptibility

En

vir

on

men

tal S

tress

Not a crisis

Crises event

High probabilityof crisesLow probability of crises

Framework for Quantifying Vulnerability:Security Diagram

Security diagrams deconstruct vulnerability into stress, susceptibility and crisis


Security Diagrams

Conceptual Overview

EnvironmentalStress

Susceptibility Likelihood of Crisis


Security Diagrams

1. Crisis – How can crisis events be identified?

2. Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought?

3. Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

Specific Research Questions


Security Diagrams

Approach of Project

Focus: Vulnerability of population to drought

Analysis

1. Estimate crisis events – Media analysis

2. Compute water stress – Use WaterGAP model and test indicators against crisis events

3. Compute susceptibility – Develop inference models from three disciplinary perspectives

Data collection

• Top down (statistical data, 1980 – 2000)

• Bottom up (limited surveys, late 1990s)

Three case study regions ...


Security Diagrams

Case Study Regions

Southern Portugal

Volga region

Andhra Pradesh


Security Diagrams





Crisis: unstable or crucial time or state of affairs brought about by environmental stress; decisive undesirable change is impending/occurring, requires emergency measures.


Security Diagrams

Identifying Drought Crisis Events

Media analysis -- “Factiva” media data base

(8000 media sources, local/regional/national)

1. Establish classes of “attributes” of crisis

2. Identify reliable local media

3. Tabulate recurrent (> 2 per month) reports of attributes


Security Diagrams

Results of Media AnalysisExample – Southern Portugal, 1983

Attributes of crisis

Agriculture

(0.25)

Energy & Industry

(0.25)

Political

(0.25)

Social

(0.25)

Sum

1.0

Irrigation strongly reduced

Reservoirs empty towards end of year

Hydroelectric production severely curtailed.

Announce-ment of „emergency‘“ for Alentejo

Mandatory electricity- saving measures


Security Diagrams

Year 19 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

India 0,75 0,25 1,0 0,5

Portugal 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

Russia 0,5 0,5 0,25 0,75

First Estimate – Drought Crisis Events

Volga Region

A. Pradesh

S. Portugal

13/48


Security Diagrams






Security DiagramsWater Stress:

Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995

Environmental stress: the intensity of environmental change thatis (i) an undesirable departure, (ii) short duration.


Security DiagramsWater Stress:

Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995

Is there a problem?

Are there thresholds?

If yes, where?

Source: WaterGAP model, U.N. World Water Assessment Report


Security Diagrams

WaterGAP ...

Global water use and availability model,

Computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge

Spatial resolution 0.5°, monthly temporal resolution.

Based on the best global data sets currently available

Uses “local” climate and socio-economic data to compute

water availability and use in case study regions

Computing water stress – the WaterGAP model


Security Diagrams

Testing the WaterGAP Model

River Discharge of Volga at Volgograd (km3/a)

Computed

Observed


Security DiagramsWater Stress Indicators

-- Test against occurrence of crisis events -- Statistical significance, t test (0.05)

Water withdrawal to availability ratio Deviation of groundwater recharge from long time average Deviation of water availability from long time average Runoff deficit index Deviation of evapotranspiration from long time average MaxIndex Maximum function [withdrawal to availability ratio, deviation of water availability from long term average, and percentage of area with high water stress]

Water withdrawal to internal availability ratio Annual groundwater recharge in mm

Groundwater discharge per capita Water availability per capita Internal renewable water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (defined as withdrawal to availability ratio of 0.4 or more) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of precipitation from long time average

Statistically significant indicators Not statistically significant indicators


Security Diagrams

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

0.0 - 0.2 >0.2 - 0.4 >0.4 - 0.6 >0.6 - 0.8 >0.8 - 1.0

Water Stress (Categories)

Rel

ativ

e fr

eque

ncy

of c

rise

s[n

umbe

r of

cri

ses

/ num

ber

of c

ases

per

cat

egor

y]

0 crises /4 cases

3 crises /24 cases

7 crises /16 cases

1 crises /2 cases

2 crises /2 cases

Testing Water StressWater stress (“MaxIndex”) vs.

crisis data from three case study regions


Security Diagrams

First conclusions about crisis and stress

Estimating crisis events –

Reproducible?

Definition of crisis?

Testing water stress –

Data period and sample too small?


Security Diagrams

First conclusions about crisis and stress

Are vulnerability estimates testable?

Possible to identify independent variable for testing regional vulnerability indicators – “crisis event”

Is it possible to verify environmental stress estimates and thresholds?

• Using crisis data, can determine statistical significance/insignificance of water stress indicators

• Using crisis data, identify water stress threshold.


Security Diagrams





Susceptibility: the capability of an individual, community or state to resist and/or recover from crisis brought about by environmental stress.


Security Diagrams

Quantifying Susceptibility

Objective: Quantify the estimation of susceptibility and compare differences between 3 disciplinary perspectives:

• Environmental psychology

• Economics

• Political Science


Security Diagrams

1. Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, specify relationships between variables, select indicators for variables.

2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory

3. Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh)

4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility

Procedure to Assess Susceptibility


Security DiagramsA New Approach to Assessing

Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project

Introduction & first results Joseph Alcamo

Using fuzzy set theory to address the

uncertainty of susceptibility to

Drought

Frank Eierdanz

The socio-economic dimension of

assessing vulnerability to extreme

climate events

Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik

Assessing susceptibility of society:

1. An environmental psychology perspective

2. A political science perspective

Doerthe Kroemker

Doerthe Kroemker (for Dennis Tanzler)

Summary of the project Joseph Alcamo

joseph alcamo center for environmental systems research, kasselslide 1 security diagrams center for...

Documents

environmental systems

security diagrams center

joseph alcamo center

security diagrams introduction

specific research questions

resultsjoseph alcamo

vulnerability of society

susceptibility of society