jammu & kashmir bank result updated

12
 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1  Particulars ( ` cr) 2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) NII 434 437 (0.7) 373 16.5 Pre-Prov. Profit 313 316 (1.1) 284 10.0 PAT 200 182 9.5 163 22.3  Source: Company, Angel Research For 2QFY2012, J&K Bank reported healthy 22.3% growth in its net profit to  ` 200cr, higher than our expectations, mostly on account of lower provisioning expenses than estimated by us.  Asset quality remained stable; however, CASA ratio weakened by 222bp qoq and slipped to sub-40% levels (38.2%). We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Asset quality remains stable, however margins compress by 13bp sequentially: The bank’s loan book grew sequentially by 6.9% to  ` 28,236cr and deposits increased significantly by 10.1% qoq to  ` 47,425cr. The CD ratio due to heavy growth in deposits slipped below 60% (59.5% as of 2QFY2012). While CASA deposits grew by healthy 4.0% qoq, the pace was lower than the growth in overall deposits, leading to a 222bp decline in CASA ratio to 38.2%. The bank’s cost of deposits till 1QFY2012 had only risen by 47bp since FY2010. The effect of rising interest rates was finally felt in 2QFY2012 as cost of deposits increased by 79bp qoq to 6.2%. Yield on advances increased by 38bp qoq to 11.8% and yield on investments rose sharply by 90bp to 7.2%; however, the combined effect was not able to fully compensate for the jump in cost of deposits, leading to a 13bp contraction in reported NIM to 3.7%. The bank had already shifted to system-based NPA recognition and, hence, did not see any material rise in its NPA ratios. Gross NPA ratio as of 2QFY2012 stood at 1.9% (2.0% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio stood at 0.2% (0.2% in 1QFY2012). Provisioning coverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at healthy 92.0%. Outlook and valuation:  The stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV vis-à-vis its historic range of 0.8-1.4x and five-year median of 1.0x. Immediate levers in the form of increased CD ratio from the current low of 59.5% into higher yielding advances are likely to provide near-term higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative to other mid-size banks. Further, with 38.2% CASA ratio, the bank is more favorably placed than its peers to handle NIM pressures from high deposit rates. On the flip side, a potential move to increase savings deposit rates would impact the bank significantly. Also, the bank’s increasing non-J&K exposure on the asset side poses medium-term concerns. Being amongst the highest outperformers since December 2010, we believe in relative terms, the stock is now fairly priced. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.  Key financials  Y/E March ( ` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E NII 1,119 1,544 1,771 1,897 % chg 11.9 37.9 14.7 7.1 Net Profit 512 615 739 771 % chg 25.0 20.1 20.2 4.4 NIM (%) 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2 EPS ( ` ) 105.7 126.9 152.5 159.1 P/E (x) 7.8 6.5 5.4 5.2 P/ABV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 RoA (%) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 RoE (%) 18.2 19.0 19.7 17.8  Source: Com an , An el Research  NEUTRAL CMP  ` 823 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector Banking Market Cap (  ` cr) 3,992 Beta 0.6 52 Week High / Low 935/695  Avg. Daily Volume 10,877 Face Value (  ` ) 10 BSE Sensex 16,858 Nifty 5,073 Reuters Code JKBK.BO Bloomberg Code J&KBK@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 53.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 2.9 FII / NRIs / OCBs 25.3 Indian Public / Others 18.7  Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (3.5) (14.1) 78.6 J&K Bank (5.5) (7.2) 116.4 Vaibhav Agrawal 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 [email protected] Shrinivas Bhutda 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 [email protected] Varun Varma 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 [email protected] Jammu and Kashmir Bank Performance Highlights 2QFY2012 Result Update | Banking November 2, 2011  

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Page 1: Jammu & Kashmir Bank Result Updated

8/3/2019 Jammu & Kashmir Bank Result Updated

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/jammu-kashmir-bank-result-updated 1/11

 

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report  1

 

Particulars (` cr) 2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy)

NII 434 437 (0.7) 373 16.5

Pre-Prov. Profit 313 316 (1.1) 284 10.0

PAT 200 182 9.5 163 22.3

 Source: Company, Angel Research

For 2QFY2012, J&K Bank reported healthy 22.3% growth in its net profit to ` 200cr, higher than our expectations, mostly on account of lower provisioningexpenses than estimated by us.  Asset quality remained stable; however, CASA ratioweakened by 222bp qoq and slipped to sub-40% levels (38.2%). We recommend a

Neutral rating on the stock.

Asset quality remains stable, however margins compress by 13bp sequentially: Thebank’s loan book grew sequentially by 6.9% to  ` 28,236cr and deposits increasedsignificantly by 10.1% qoq to  ` 47,425cr. The CD ratio due to heavy growth indeposits slipped below 60% (59.5% as of 2QFY2012). While CASA deposits grew by healthy 4.0% qoq, the pace was lower than the growth in overall deposits, leading toa 222bp decline in CASA ratio to 38.2%. The bank’s cost of deposits till 1QFY2012had only risen by 47bp since FY2010. The effect of rising interest rates was finally feltin 2QFY2012 as cost of deposits increased by 79bp qoq to 6.2%. Yield on advancesincreased by 38bp qoq to 11.8% and yield on investments rose sharply by 90bp to7.2%; however, the combined effect was not able to fully compensate for the jump incost of deposits, leading to a 13bp contraction in reported NIM to 3.7%. The bank

had already shifted to system-based NPA recognition and, hence, did not see any material rise in its NPA ratios. Gross NPA ratio as of 2QFY2012 stood at 1.9% (2.0%in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio stood at 0.2% (0.2% in 1QFY2012). Provisioningcoverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at healthy 92.0%.

Outlook and valuation: The stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV vis-à-vis its historicrange of 0.8-1.4x and five-year median of 1.0x. Immediate levers in the form ofincreased CD ratio from the current low of 59.5% into higher yielding advances arelikely to provide near-term higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative toother mid-size banks. Further, with 38.2% CASA ratio, the bank is more favorably placed than its peers to handle NIM pressures from high deposit rates. On the flipside, a potential move to increase savings deposit rates would impact the banksignificantly. Also, the bank’s increasing non-J&K exposure on the asset side poses

medium-term concerns. Being amongst the highest outperformers since December2010, we believe in relative terms, the stock is now fairly priced. Hence,we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. 

Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

NII 1,119 1,544 1,771 1,897

% chg 11.9 37.9 14.7 7.1

Net Profit 512 615 739 771

% chg 25.0 20.1 20.2 4.4

NIM (%) 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2

EPS (`) 105.7 126.9 152.5 159.1

P/E (x) 7.8 6.5 5.4 5.2

P/ABV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

RoA (%) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

RoE (%) 18.2 19.0 19.7 17.8

 Source: Com an , An el Research  

NEUTRALCMP  ` 823

Target Price -

Investment Period -

Stock Info

Sector Banking

Market Cap ( `  cr) 3,992

Beta 0.6

52 Week High / Low 935/695

  Avg. Daily Volume 10,877

Face Value ( ` ) 10

BSE Sensex 16,858

Nifty 5,073

Reuters Code JKBK.BO

Bloomberg Code J&KBK@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 53.2

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 2.9

FII / NRIs / OCBs 25.3

Indian Public / Others 18.7

  Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex (3.5) (14.1) 78.6

J&K Bank (5.5) (7.2) 116.4

Vaibhav Agrawal

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6808

[email protected]

Shrinivas Bhutda

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6845

[email protected]

Varun Varma

022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6847

[email protected]

Jammu and Kashmir Bank

Performance Highlights

2QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

November 2, 2011

 

Page 2: Jammu & Kashmir Bank Result Updated

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  2

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2012 performance

Particulars (` cr) 2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy)

Interest earned 1,156 1,056 9.4 899 28.6

- on Advances / Bills 806 751 7.4 635  26.9- on investments 343 299 14.5 259 32.1

- on balance with RBI & others 7 6 15.4 4 68.1

Interest Expended 721 619 16.6 526 37.1

Net Interest Income 434 437 (0.7) 373 16.5

Other income 71 67 6.3 74 (4.4)

Other income excl. treasury 63 57 10.3 56 11.4

- Fee Income 40 42 (4.5) 38 3.2

- Treasury Income 8 10 (16.3) 18 (53.3)

- Others 23 15 50.5 18  29.1

Operating income 505 504 0.3 447 13.1

Operating expenses 193 188 2.6 163 18.5

- Employee expenses 126 128 (1.8) 107 16.8

- Other Opex 67 60 12.0 55  21.6

Pre-provision Profit 313 316 (1.1) 284 10.0

Provisions & Contingencies 22 44 (49.8) 39 (42.5)

- Provisions for NPAs 13 25 (48.0) 39 (66.7)

- Provisions for Investments 4 4  22.7 (5) (193.9)

- Other Provisions 5 16 (69.4) 5  4.8

PBT 290 272 6.8 246 18.3

Provision for Tax 91 90 1.3 82 10.3

PAT 200 182 9.5 163 22.3

Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.3 33.0 (170)bp 33.5 (226)bp

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 2QFY2012 Actual vs. Angel estimates

Particulars (` cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)

Net interest income 434 426  2.0

Non-interest income 71 75 (5.1)

Operating income 505 501 1.0

Operating expenses 193 197 (2.1)

Pre-prov. profit 313 304 2.9

Provisions & cont. 22 42 (46.4)

PBT 290 262 10.8

Prov. for taxes 91 85 6.7

PAT 200 177 12.7

 Source: Company, Angel Research

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  3

Exhibit 3: 2QFY2012 performance

Particulars (` cr) 2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy)

 Advances ( ` cr) 28,236 26,403 6.9 23,183  21.8

Deposits ( ` cr) 47,425 43,078 10.1 39,688 19.5

Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 59.5 61.3 (175)bp 58.4 112bp

Current deposits ( ` cr) 4,590 4,198 9.3 5,298 (13.4)

Saving deposits ( ` cr) 13,515 13,204  2.4 11,031  22.5

CASA deposits ( `  cr) 18,105 17,401  4.0 16,329 10.9

CASA ratio (%) 38.2 40.4 (222)bp 41.1 (297)bp

CAR (%) 13.6 14.4 (76)bp 15.6 (195)bp

Tier 1 CAR (%) 11.3 11.8 (51)bp 12.8 (143)bp

Profitability Ratios (%)

Cost of deposits 6.2 5.4 79bp 5.2 96bp

Yield on advances 11.8 11.4 38bp 11.0 80bp

Yield on investments 7.2 6.3 90bp 6.1 112bpReported NIM 3.7 3.8 (13)bp 3.7 3bp

Cost-to-income ratio 38.1 37.3 88bp 36.4 174bp

Asset quality

Gross NPAs ( `  cr) 542 528  2.6 513 5.7

Gross NPAs (%) 1.9 2.0 (8)bp 2.2 (28)bp

Net NPAs ( ` cr) 62 58 6.3 31 100.7

Net NPAs (%) 0.2 0.2 0bp 0.1 9bp

Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 92.0 92.5 (46)bp 95.5 (347)bp

Slippage ratio (%) 0.8 1.3 (56)bp 1.9 (112)bp

NPA to avg. assets (%) 0.1 0.2 (10)bp 0.4 (25)bp

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Strong growth in business; CASA ratio falls below 40%

The business picked up pace in 2QFY2012 post the sequential contraction

witnessed in 1QFY2012. The bank’s loan book grew sequentially by 6.9% to

 ` 28,236cr, while deposits increased significantly by 10.1% qoq to  ` 47,425cr. The

CD ratio due to heavy growth in deposits slipped below 60% (59.5% as of

2QFY2012). While CASA deposits grew by healthy 4.0% qoq, the pace was much

lower than the growth in overall deposits, leading to a 222bp decline in CASA 

ratio to 38.2%.

The bank’s outstanding loan book concentration within the J&K state is ~39%,

while that outside the state is ~61%. As margins are higher within the state due to

lower cost of deposits on account of higher proportion of CASA deposits,

management would like ~50% of loan portfolio concentrated within the J&K state

by the end of FY2012. The bank is planning to open 100 new branches in the

J&K, in order to increase its low-cost deposits and maintain its margins going

ahead.

Management is mulling an increase in savings deposit rate, which we feel might

not be required as the bank faces very less competition in the parent state of J&K,

which accounts for ~75% of its low-cost deposits. Any move to increase the

savings rate before its peers might be premature and would further raise the cost

of deposits for the bank (79bp qoq rise in 2QFY2012), eventually hurting its

profitability.

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  4

Exhibit 4: Strong business growth in 2QFY2012

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: CASA ratio falls below 40%

 Source: Company, Angel Research

The bank’s cost of deposits till 1QFY2012 had only risen by 47bp since FY2010.The effect of rising interest rates was finally felt in 2QFY2012 as cost of deposits

grew by 79bp qoq (also partly due to a 222bp qoq decline in CASA ratio) to 6.2%.

Yield on advances increased by 38bp qoq to 11.8% and yield on investments rose

sharply by 90bp to 7.2%. However, the combined effect was not able to fully 

compensate for the jump in cost of deposits, leading to a 13bp contraction in

reported NIM to 3.7%. 

Exhibit 6: Sharp rise in cost of deposits in 2QFY2012...

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: ...leads to a 13bp qoq contraction in NIM

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Healthy performance sequentially on other income front

During the quarter, non-interest income increased by 6.3% qoq to  ` 71cr. Profits

from treasury declined by 16.3% qoq to  ` 8cr, however income excluding treasury 

witnessed healthy growth of 10.3% qoq to  ` 63cr.

   0 .   6

   9 .   4    3

 .   3   0 .   8

   6 .   9

   5 .   5

   3 .   0

   9 .   3

   (   3 .   6

   )

   1   0 .   1

58.4

62.0

58.6

61.359.5

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

 Adv. qoq chg (%) Dep. qoq chg (%) CDR (%, RHS)

   4   1 .   1

   3   9 .   6

   4   0 .   5

   4   0 .   4

   3   8 .   2

35.6

16.819.4

22.2

10.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.042.0

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

CASA ratio (%) CASA growth (% yoy, RHS))

5.21 5.12

5.36 5.38

6.17

4.00

4.75

5.50

6.25

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

3.663.70 3.72

3.82

3.69

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  5

 Asset quality remains stable; Slippage ratio declines further 

The bank had already shifted to system-based NPA recognition and, hence,

did not see any material rise in its NPA ratios. Gross NPA ratio as of

2QFY2012 stood at 1.9% (2.0% in 1QFY2012) and net NPA ratio stood at

0.2% (0.2% in 1QFY2012). Provisioning coverage ratio including technical

write-offs stood at healthy 92.0%. 

The bank’s outstanding restructured book as of 2QFY2012 stands at ~` 2,200cr,

of which  ` 188cr were restructured during the current quarter, highlighting the

concerns of increasing exposure outside J&K, where rather than relying on its own

credit appraisal, the bank mainly has to go for low-margin syndicated loans.

  As more than half of the restructured book is through CDR mechanism,

management is confident that these accounts will continue performing going

ahead. We estimate slippage ratio to be 1.3% and 1.6% for FY2012 and FY2013,

respectively.

Exhibit 8: Best-in-class asset quality 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: Trend in NPA provision-to-avg. asset 

 Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment arguments

Robust asset quality 

Over the years, the bank has maintained robust asset quality, with the

best-in-industry provision coverage ratio (92.0% as of 2QFY2012). Slippages

declined considerably (0.8% for 2QFY2012 compared to 1.3% for 4QFY2011),

and were lower compared to most other PSU banks. We have conservatively 

factored in slippage levels of 1.3% and 1.6% for FY2012 and FY2013,

respectively.

Strong branch network and legacy – Dominant market share The bank has ~450 branches in J&K. Due to its strong branch network and legacy 

of banking relationships, the bank has a dominant 70% market share in deposits

in J&K. CASA deposits constituted strong 47.8% of incremental deposits growth

from FY2004–11. This strong base of low-cost deposits is expected to sustain

relatively higher calculated NIM of 3.2–3.4% among mid-size banks.

   2 .   2

   2 .   0

   2 .   0

   2 .   0

   1 .   9

   0 .   1

   0 .   0

   0 .   2

   0 .   2

   0 .   2

95.598.4

92.7 92.5 92.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (%) PCR (%, RHS)

0.4

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY11 2QFY11

NPA Provisions to Avg Assets (%)

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  6

Outlook and valuation

The stock is trading at 0.9x FY2013E ABV vis-à-vis its historic range of 0.8–1.4x and

five-year median of 1.0x. Immediate levers in the form of increased CD ratio from the

current low of 59.5%  into higher yielding advances are likely to provide near-term

higher momentum to NII growth for the bank relative to other mid-size banks. Further,

with 38.2% CASA ratio, the bank is more favorably placed than its peers to handle

NIM pressures from high deposit rates. On the flip side, a potential move to increase

savings deposit rates would impact the bank significantly. Also the bank’s increasing

non-J&K exposure on the asset side poses medium-term concerns. Being amongst the

highest outperformers since December 2010, we believe in relative terms, the stock is

now fairly priced. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock

Exhibit 10: Key assumptions

Particulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimatesFY2012 FY2013 FY2012 FY2013

Credit growth 16.0 20.0 18.0 20.0

Deposit growth 11.0 12.0 13.0 11.0

CASA ratio 40.4 40.0 39.7 39.6

NIMs 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.2

Other income growth (11.5) 17.6 (10.4) 17.6

Growth in staff expenses 2.5 13.0 2.5 13.0

Growth in other expenses 17.0 13.0 17.0 13.0

Slippages 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.6

Coverage ratio 91.0 85.0 91.0 85.0

 Source: Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Change in estimates

Particulars (` cr)

FY2012 FY2013

Earlierestimates

Revisedestimates

Var. (%)Earlier

estimatesRevised

estimatesVar. (%)

NII 1,702 1,771  4.1 1,788 1,897 6.1

Non-interest income 323 327 1.2 380 384 1.2

Operating income 2,025 2,098 3.6 2,168 2,281 5.2

Operating expenses 812 812 - 918 918 -

Pre-prov. profit 1,213 1,286 6.0 1,250 1,364 9.0Provisions & cont. 189 192 1.2 214 222 3.6

PBT 1,024 1,094 6.9 1,037 1,142 10.2

Prov. for taxes 332 355 6.9 336 371 10.2

PAT 691 739 6.9 700 771 10.2

 Source: Angel Research

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  7

Exhibit 12: P/ABV band

 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

   M

  a  r -   0   2

   O

  c   t -   0   2

   M

  a  y -   0

   3

   D

  e  c -   0

   3

   J  u   l -   0   4

   F

  e   b -   0

   5

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  e  p -   0

   5

   A

  p  r -   0   6

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  o  v -   0

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   J  u  n -   0

   7

   J  a  n -   0

   8

   A  u  g -   0

   8

   M

  a  r -   0   9

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  c   t -   0   9

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  a  y -   1

   0

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  e  c -   1

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   J  u   l -   1   1

   F

  e   b -   1

   2

Price (`) 0.5x 0.75x 1x 1.25x 1.5x

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 Jammu and Kashmir Bank | 2QFY2012 Result Update

 

November 2, 2011  8

Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary 

Company Reco.CMP

(`)Tgt. price

(`)Upside

(%)FY2013EP/ABV (x)

FY2013ETgt P/ABV (x)

FY2013EP/E (x)

FY2011E-13EEPS CAGR (%)

FY2013ERoA (%)

FY2013ERoE (%)

  AxisBk Buy 1,128 1,414 25.4 1.8 2.3 9.9 17.7 1.5 20.0

FedBk Accumulate 412 444 7.9 1.1 1.2 8.4 19.5 1.2 14.0

HDFCBk Neutral 483 - - 3.3 - 16.8 30.5 1.7 20.9

ICICIBk* Buy 887 1,114  25.6 1.6 2.0 13.0 23.3 1.4 15.4

SIB Neutral 23 - - 1.1 - 6.8 15.6 1.0 18.2

YesBk Buy 308 355 15.4 1.9 2.3 10.2 19.9 1.3 20.8

  AllBk Accumulate 161 1695.2 0.7 0.8 4.3 12.2 1.0 18.4

  AndhBk Neutral 118 -- 0.8 - 5.3 (0.9) 0.9 15.8

BOB Accumulate 800 881 10.1 1.1 1.2 5.7 14.2 1.2 20.7

BOI Accumulate 333 362 8.7 0.9 1.0 5.5 15.2 0.7 17.1

BOM Accumulate 50 55 10.9 0.7 0.7 4.3 38.1 0.6 16.5

CanBk Accumulate 482 510 5.9 0.9 1.0 5.6 (3.0) 0.9 17.2CentBk Neutral 101 - - 0.7 - 5.2 (16.1) 0.5 13.9

CorpBk Buy 428 498 16.3 0.7 0.8 4.4 1.5 0.8 16.6

DenaBk Neutral 82 - - 0.6 - 3.9 7.5 0.8 16.4

IDBI# Neutral 115 - - 0.7 - 5.4 12.3 0.7 14.0

IndBk Neutral 215 - - 0.9 - 5.5 0.2 1.1 17.4

IOB Accumulate 100 107 7.3 0.6 0.7 4.0 20.0 0.6 15.9

J&KBk Neutral 823 - - 0.9 - 5.2 12.0 1.3 17.8

OBC Accumulate 286 301 5.3 0.7 0.7 5.0 5.1 0.8 14.1

PNB Accumulate 979 1,106 13.0 1.1 1.3 5.8 9.9 1.1 20.6

SBI* Buy 1,909 2,239 17.3 1.4 1.7 7.3 41.4 1.0 21.9

SynBk Buy 107 123 15.3 0.7 0.8 4.7 11.8 0.7 16.3

UcoBk Neutral 74 - - 0.9 - 4.4 15.9 0.7 16.7

UnionBk Accumulate 225 238 5.8 0.9 0.9 5.1 5.2 0.8 17.0

UtdBk Buy 71 82 15.2 0.6 0.7 4.2 13.4 0.6 14.1

  VijBk Neutral 60 -- 0.8 - 7.3 (3.2) 0.4 10.5

 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF

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Income statement

Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

Net Interest Income 768 810 1,000 1,119 1,544 1,771 1,897

- YoY Growth (%) 15.7 5.5 23.4 11.9 37.9 14.7 7.1Other Income 183 263 261 416 365 327 384

- YoY Growth (%) 64.8 44.1 (0.7) 59.2 (12.4) (10.4) 17.6

Operating Income 951 1,074 1,262 1,536 1,908 2,098 2,281

- YoY Growth (%) 22.7 13.0 17.5 21.7 24.3 9.9 8.7

Operating Expenses 372 404 471 577 759 812 918

- YoY Growth (%) 7.9 8.4 16.7 22.6 31.4 7.0 13.0

Pre - Provision Profit 578 670 791 958 1,149 1,286 1,364

- YoY Growth (%) 34.7 15.9 18.0 21.2 20.0 11.9 6.0

Prov. & Cont. 163 94 159 167 215 192 222

- YoY Growth (%) (3.1) (42.2) 69.3 4.6 29.1 (11.0) 15.6

Profit Before Tax 415 576 631 792 934 1,094 1,142

- YoY Growth (%) 59.0 38.7 9.6 25.3 18.0 17.1 4.4

Prov. for Taxation 141 216 222 279 319 355 371

- as a % of PBT 33.9 37.5 35.1 35.3 34.2 32.4 32.4

PAT 274 360 410 512 615 739 771

- YoY Growth (%) 55.2 31.2 13.8 25.0 20.1 20.2 4.4

 

Balance sheet

Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

Share Capital 48 48 48 48 48 48 48Reserves & Surplus 1,960 2,260 2,574 2,962 3,430 3,995 4,586

Deposits 25,194 28,593 33,004 37,237 44,676 50,484 56,037

- Growth (%) 7.3 13.5 15.4 12.8 20.0 13.0 11.0

Borrowings 620 752 997 500 505 427 475

Tier 2 Capital - - - 600 600 678 753

Other Liab. & Prov. 823 1,102 1,070 1,199 1,249 1,378 1,525

Total Liabilities 28,647 32,756 37,693 42,547 50,508 57,010 63,424

Cash Balances 1,855 3,220 2,303 2,745 2,975 3,281 3,642

Bank Balances 1,759 1,217 2,972 1,870 574 1,140 1,268

Investments 7,392 8,758 10,736 13,956 19,696 20,485 20,109

  Advances 17,080 18,883 20,930 23,057 26,194 30,908

- Growth (%) 17.9 10.6 10.8 10.2 13.6 18.0 20.0

Fixed Assets 183 192 199 204 394 431 465

Other Assets 377 486 552 715 676 763 849

Total Assets 28,647 32,756 37,693 42,547 50,508 57,010 63,424

- Growth (%) 8.3 14.3 15.1 12.9 18.7 12.9 11.3

 

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November 2, 2011  10

Ratio analysis 

Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E

Profitability ratios (%) 

NIMs 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.2Cost to Income Ratio 39.2 37.6 37.3 37.6 39.8 38.7 40.2

RoA 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

RoE 15.2 18.2 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 17.8

B/S ratios (%)

CASA Ratio 37.0 39.2 38.1 40.7 40.5 39.7 39.6

Credit/Deposit Ratio 67.8 66.0 63.4 61.9 58.6 61.2 66.2

CAR 13.2 12.8 14.5 15.9 13.7 14.1 14.5

- Tier I 12.6 12.1 13.8 12.8 11.3 11.7 12.1

Asset quality (%)

Gross NPAs 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.7

Net NPAs 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5

Slippages 1.9 1.3 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6

NPA Prov./Avg. Assets 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Provision Coverage 61.4 58.0 48.6 86.1 89.7 91.0 85.0

Per Share Data (`)EPS 56.6 74.2 84.5 105.7 126.9 152.5 159.1

  ABVPS 400.2 459.2 510.4 620.8 717.4 833.8 9

DPS 11.5 15.5 16.9 22.0 26.0 31.0 32.0

Valuation Ratios

PER (x) 14.5 11.1 9.7 7.8 6.5 5.4 5.2

P/ABVPS (x) 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

Dividend Yield 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.8 3.9

DuPont Analysis (%)

NII 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.2

(-) Prov. Exp. 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4

  Adj. NII 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2

Treasury 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0

Int. Sens. Inc. 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.8

Other Inc. 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Op. Inc. 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4

Opex 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5PBT 1.5 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9

Taxes 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6

RoA 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3

Leverage (x) 15.2 15.4 14.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 13.9

RoE 15.2 18.2 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 17.8

 

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 Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Jammu & Kashmir Bank 

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

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