IRI Experience

Climate knowledge/information as a resource

• with many partners, developing the capacity to manage climate-related risks in key climate-sensitive sectors: agriculture, food security, water resources management, public health, disasters– connects to development goals/programs

“strong” forecast

founding of IRI was motivated by anticipation of this kind of situation

Public Health

Malaria in Botswana

• Epidemic prone country

• Good surveillance system for epidemics

• 20 years of data for historic analysis

• Interested in incorporating seasonal

climate forecasts into malaria control planning

(Currently: observed climate anomalies)

RBM MoH WHO

Expected Output

Malaria Early Warning System

Activities:

Demonstrate the use of climate information in malaria control

RBM MoH WHO

YEAR

200219981994199019861982

An

om

alie

s

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

CMAP quadratic

SST (*-1)

Standardised malaria

incidence

Anomalies in DJF SSTs, DJF rainfall (CMAP) and national

malaria incidence (Jan-Jun)in Botswana(1982-2003)

Potential of Seasonal Climate Forecast to predict high/low Malaria years

Observed rainfall and DEMETER rainfall forecast in relation to high and low malaria anomaly years

Ob

serv

ed

and

fore

cast

ed

Clim

ate

Anom

alie

s

Standardised Malaria Quartiles

Information can be used to initiate timely interventions

Tailored malaria forecast made December, for DJF 2004-05

MEWS offers opportunities for planning and preparedness …….

NMCP strengthen vector control measures and prepare emergency containers with mobile treatment centres

Agriculture / Food Security

Greater Horn of Africa

Desired outcome:

Anticipate household's becoming food insecure to allow pre-emptive interventions before the situation becomes an emergency.

Partners

Information is being produced for and/or in collaboration with:

Correlation between statistically corrected climate model output and observed rainfall, Oct-Dec

Good potential for climate forecasts:

cover

box

Still one step is needed:

Results are expressed in “terms” that Decision Makers do not use (e.g., Rainfall)

Need to “Translate” information to the same

terms that Decision Makers use

(crop yields, pasture availability, water in reservoirs, etc.)

COF11 – Forecast Crop Conditions at End of Season

Predicting end-of-season crop conditions using the Water

Requirements Satisfaction Index

Actual Crop Conditions at End of Season

Slide Courtesy G. Galu

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BAAR-DHEERE

CEEL AFWEYN

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BANDER BEYLA

MAHADAY WEYNEQANSAX DHEERE

BANDAR WANAAG

BALLI GUBADLE(Balleh Khadar)

XUDUR

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Kilometers

District Boundary

Regional Boundary

coastline

International boundary

River

Major road

Capital#Y Regional capital

District town#

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SOMALIA

SANAG

TOGDHEER

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BAY

M. SHABELLE

BAKOOL

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LOWERJUBA

L. SHABELLE

M. JUBA

IN CO-ORPERATION WITH UNDP- SOMALIA

FSAU is managed by the FAO, funded by EC and supported by USAID-Somalia and W FP-Somalia

FSAU partners are W FP-Somalia, FEWS-Somalia,FAO,UNICEF, SCFUK and UNDP-Somalia.

FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT UNIT

Property of FSAU-FAO.P.O. Box 1230 Vilage Market (Nairobi),Tel 745734/8297/1299/6509,Fax: 740598E-mail: fsauinfo@fsau.or.ke.

January, 2001

FOOD ECONOMY GROUPS / AREAS (Draft)

Addun pastoral:Mixed Shoats, camel

Agro-pastoral: Camel, cattle & sorghum

Agro-pastoral:Cowpea, shoats, camel, cattle

Agro-pastoral: Sorghum, cattle

Bay-Bakool high potential sorghum;Cattle & camel

Fishing<

Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel

Haud & Sool pastoral: Camel, shoats

Highland pastoral: Goats

Hiran riverine:Sorghum, maize, cattle

Juba Dheshek: Maize, sesame

Juba, pump irrigated commercial farming:Tobacco, onions,maize

Kakaar pastoral:Sheep & goats

Lower Juba: Maize & cattle

<

Nugal Valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel

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Pastoral:Camel &shoats

Coastal pastoral:Goats & cattle

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Pastoral: Sheep

Shabelle riverine: Irrigated maize

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Pastoral:Cattle & shoats

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L. Shabelle rainfed & flood irrigated: Maize & cattle

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Togdher: Agro-pastoral

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Somalia:

Food Economy Groups

(Food Security Assessment Unit)

(e.g., food insecurity hotspots in August 2004

Climate/Environmental Monitoring + Food Economy Groups:

+ Seasonal Climate Outlook:

Assess food insecurity hotspots

Food Security Outlooks (e.g., FSO for December made in August 2004)

FS Outlook for December FS Reported in January

Summary

• climate-related EWS have much to offer in managing risks: proactive v. reactive responses

• room for further improvements in methodologies

• for benefit to be realized, actions need to be tied to warnings

• collaboration needed, both in research/development and in operational practice