introduction to sas forecasting
TRANSCRIPT
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FORECASTING USING SASPAT VALENTE, SOLUTION SPECIALIST
2Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
• FORECASTING – SETTING THE SCENE• PROCESS AND CHALLENGES• SAS TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT
Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
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FORECASTING IS UBIQUITOUS
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PUTTING FORECASTING INTO CONTEXT
Managing the future
Forecasting• What will the future look like
Budgeting•What should the future look like
Planning•Actions to achieve a certain target
5Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
• FORECASTING – SETTING THE SCENE• PROCESS AND CHALLENGES• SAS TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT
Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Copy r ight © 2012, SAS Ins t i tu te Inc . A l l r ights reserved.
FORECASTING TWO INTERCONNECTED LOOPS
Assessment
Post-processing
Data preparation
Explore and analyze
Segmentation
Statistical modeling
What-if analysis
Manual override
Consensus
Management sign-off
Execute
Evaluate baseline
Forecast production Forecast consumption
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WHY GOOD STATISTICAL FORECASTING IS IMPORTANT
•Instead of the forecast just being what you have available – supply – the statistical forecast enables you to get a better understanding of what you can actually sell – demand.
Forecasts reflect demand.
•Reduce the impact of human misjudgment and political biases
Solid and unbiased baseline
•High quality statistical forecasts enables you to focus on the most difficult to forecast items in the forecast process downstream
Forecasting by exception
•Continuously improve the forecast process by structuring the process and focusing on the added value the it brings
Continuous process improvement
•Explicitly dealing with the uncertainty around the forecast
Uncertainty
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TRADITIONAL FORECASTING CHALLENGES
• Supply driven• Silos/Internal politics• Manually intensive• Inefficient processes
• Excessive use of spreadsheets• Use of existing planning systems.• Scalability• Lack of automation
• Lack of skilled analysts• Gut feeling • Playing the numbers• Internal politics dominate
9Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
• FORECASTING – SETTING THE SCENE• PROCESS AND CHALLENGES• SAS TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT
Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.
Copy r ight © 2012, SAS Ins t i tu te Inc . A l l r ights reserved.
FORECASTING SUPPORTING SAS TECHNOLOGY
Enables you to quickly create a very large number of forecastsScalable
Enables you to create statistical forecasts with limited resourcesManageable
Enables you to create sound forecasts that follows best practicesReliable
SAS® FORECAST SERVER
Time Series Exploration
SAS® Time Series Studio
Batch Interface
SAS® Forecast Server Procedures
Forecast Modeling
SAS® Forecast Studio
SAS® FORECAST SERVER
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SAS FORECAST SERVER
SAS TIME SERIES STUDIO
• Before commencing any time series
forecasting task it is important to get at
better understanding of the data at hand• This will help you answer questions such as
• What is the degree of seasonality?• Is there an underlying trend?• Is there a hierarchy in my data I should use?• Would it make more sense to try and segment
my data and model each segment separately?• Are there time series which are not suitable for
time series modeling?• Are there indications that my forecast is
influenced by external factors?
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SAS FORECAST SERVER
FORECAST STUDIO
• Forecast modeling can be a time consuming task. SAS
Forecast Studio helps increase the productivity of the
forecast analysts by offering:• A unique combination of automatic and manual model building
taking into account the effects of external drivers• The ability to use any hierarchical structure in the data to improve
forecast accuracy• Automatic outlier detection• Access to an extensive model library• Intelligent management of events influencing the forecasts• Rolling simulations to evaluate the stability of the forecast over
time• Easy access to what-if scenario analysis to better understand how
the external drivers influence the forecast
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SAS FORECAST SERVER
WEB BASED PROCESS FLOW
The components of SAS Forecast
Server can be leveraged individually or
through a guided process flow that
structures and documents the work
being done
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PAT VALENTE PRE-SALES SAS CANADA
Pat is an analytics professional with a focus on telecommunications but supporting a variety of
industries.
Two decades of analytical and management positions have given Pat exposure to business areas
within Finance, Service and After Sales Logistics, Marketing, Commissioning and Client Care. This
has allowed him to develop and demonstrate strengths in areas that include: Relationship
management, Strategic business planning, Analytical skills, Database and Systems knowledge,
Problem resolution and Budgeting/financial control.
Pat holds an M.A. in Economics from York University in Toronto and worked prior to joining SAS in
a variety of analytical and management positions at both the wireless and landline divisions of Bell
Canada, Canada’s leading telecommunications provider.
416.307.5053
http://ca.linkedin.com/in/patvalente/
Solution Specialist
