DOES THE SIZE OF COLLEGE

REALLY MATTER?A Case Study For Determining The Factors That Contribute

To Enrollment at Different Sized Public Universities in Texas

Michael Ijeh Undergraduate Research Scholar – Honors College

2015 Undergraduate Research Conference

April 3rd 2015

Introduction

• An extension of previous research

• Interval-Based analysis

TTU 2020 Strategic Plan

Some of The Details Include…

•Increase Total Enrollment to 40,000 students

and Promote Student Success

• Enrollment for 2014-15 School Year - approx. 35,000

students

•Benchmarking Against National and Texas

Peer Institutions

•Looking To Reach Tier One Status

Goal of the Case Study

So does the size of an institution change the factors that

influence its enrollment?

30%

30%

15%

18%

7%

2013-14 Makeup of Enrollment at

Texas Institutions – Based on

Enrollment Intervals

0-10,000

10,001-20,000

20,001-30,000

30,001-40,000

Above 40,000

Hypothesis

Yes, I believe that the size of an institution

(based on enrollment) will influence which

factors are statistically significant.

• Location Effect

• Football Effect

• Economic Effect

Hypothesis

Factors expected to stay statistically

significant as Enrollment changes:

Acceptance Rates

Retention Rates

University Rankings

Is It The Economy Or The Institutions Themselves?

So What does my Data say?

Factors That Influences Enrollment

Where:

Y=Log(Enrollment)

X=Factors that Influence Enrollment

Observations

• 27 Different Public Universities in Texas

• 10 Year Span

Yi= α+∑21=1 Xi+ԑi i=1,2,3,...,270

List of Schools

School Systems

University of Texas

Texas A&M University

Texas State University

Texas Tech University

University of Houston

University of North Texas

List of Schools

Independent Schools

Midwestern State University

Stephen F. Austin University

Texas Southern University

Texas Woman’s University

List of Institution-Based Factors

• Is the Institution a Main System

School? (Dummy)

• Is the Institution Independent?

(Dummy)

• Acceptance Rate*

• ACT Score (75th Percentile)

• Student to Faculty Ratio

• Percentage of Minority Students*

• Percentage of Graduate Students*

• Graduation Rate*

•Percentage of Undergraduate Students

Receiving Financial Aid*

•Retention Rate*

•Total Years Established

•Wins by the University’s Football Team

•Did the University’s Football Team

make it to the Postseason? (Dummy)

•Ranking of University (Reversed-

Ordered)

*Out of 100 Students for consistency purposes

List of Demographic/Economic Factors

• Is the Institution in a Major City?

(Dummy)

• Population of Texas over the Age

of 18

• Median Household Income in

Texas

• Inflation Rate (2004 Base Year)

•National Unemployment Rate between

Ages 16-24

•Total Unemployment Rate in Texas

•Is the Economy in a Recession?

(Dummy)

Descriptive Statistics

Enrollment

Interval

Average of

Enrollment

SD of

Enrollment

Average of

Tuition Rate

Total % of

Data SetNotable Schools

0-10,000 7,086 1,703 $3,132 36.30% Angelo State, Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern

10,001-20,000 14,107 2,980 $4,335 30.74% Sam Houston State, Texas Woman’s , Stephen F. Austin

20,001-30,000 25,505 2,933 $4,422 10.37% UT Dallas, UT San Antonio, UT El Paso

30,001-40,000 34,267 2,783 $5,062 14.81% Houston, Texas State, North Texas, Texas Tech

Above 40,000 49,279 3,275 $6,490 7.78% UT Austin, Texas A&M

All Data 18,463 13,266 $4,183 100.00%

98

83

28

40

21

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Fre

qu

ency

Number of Institutions in

each Enrollment Interval

Regression Results

Significant Factors

Enrollment

IntervalsR^2

Major

City?

Economy in

Recession?

Inflation

Rate -

2004 Base

Main

System

School

Acceptance

Rate

ACT

Score

(75%)

Student to

Faculty

Ratio

% of

Minority

Students

% of

Graduate

Students

% of

Students

Receiving

Financial

Aid

Retention

Rate

Total

Years

Est.

Wins By

Football

Team

Graduation

Rate

Tuition

Rate

Relative

Ranking

0-10,000 0.5141

10,001-20,000 0.8272

20,001-30,000 0.9727

30,001-40,000 0.9200

Beyond

40,0000.8400

All Data 0.8097

Where :

Positive Correlation at p< .1 (90% Confidence)

Negative Correlation at p< .1 (90% Confidence)

Regression Results Without Rankings

Significant Factors

Enrollment

IntervalsR^2

Major

City?

Economy in

Recession?

Inflation

Rate - 2004

Base

Main

System

School

Acceptance

Rate

ACT Score

(75%)

Student to

Faculty

Ratio

% of

Minority

Students

% of

Graduate

Students

% of

Students

Receiving

Financial

Aid

Retention

Rate

Total

Years

Est.

Wins By

Football

Team

Tuition

Rate

0-10,000 0.5026

10,001-20,000 0.8091

20,001-30,000 0.9699

30,001-40,000 0.9176

Beyond

40,0000.8344

All Data 0.7878

Where :

Positive Correlation at p< .1 (90% Confidence)

Negative Correlation at p< .1 (90% Confidence)

Conclusion And Analysis

Inverse Economic Effect

Small School Inverse Effect

Location Effect

Legacy Effect

Quality Effect

Other Explanations

2013-14 Research Expenditures as a % of Core Income

2013-14 % of Enrollment that are Woman

Other Factors:

• Amount of Public

Funding

• Breakdown of Majors

chosen

• Influence of Sports45%

52%49%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

25%

14%

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Texas Tech 30,001-40,000 Above 40,000

Implications for Texas Tech

Focus on your Backyard

Don’t Sacrifice Quality for Quantity

There is a “Ceiling”

Stay True to Core Values

Further Research Ideas

Different measures of Size

• Assets

• Research Funds

• Endowment

Different Regression Model

• Multivariate

• 2 Stage Lease Squares

• Quartile or Quintile Analysis

Different Timeframe

• Financial Crisis played a role in data set

Comparing to other States for Consistency

• Larger Schools

• Tier One Schools

Data Sources

IPEDS Data Center

National Bureau of Economic Research

Bureau of Labor and Statistics

International College and University Rankings

Princeton Review Rankings

US News College Rankings

Lone Star Conference

ESPN

Questions &

Comments?