international relations theorymono.eik.bme.hu/~gyorgy/ir_files/npe_11_foreign_policy... ·...
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International Relations Theory
Nemzetközi Politikaelmélet A külpolitikai elemzés folyamata.György László
egyetemi tanársegédBME GTK, Pénzügyek Tanszék, Gazdaságpolitika és Gazdaságtörténet Szakcsoport
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The Concept of Foreign Policy
• Goals, strategies, methods... etc. of foreign policy• Influence the goals and activities of others• Sovereign actors (different from domestic politics)
• Key actors: ...• Foreign policy analysis is to support them
• Instrumental activity• Knowing our goals and the goals of others• Using the IR theories
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Foreign Policy Analysis 1The good old scheme: IR values and theories
FOCUS
Security (‘security dilemma’, national security)power politics, conflict and warFreedomcooperation, peace and progress
Order and justiceshared interests, rules and institutions
Welfarewealth, poverty and equality, management of domestic and international economy
THEORIES
Realism
Liberalism
International Society
IPE theories (structuralism)
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Foreign Policy Analysis 2Various approaches
Approaches to foreign-policy analysis
Traditional approach Focus on decision-maker
Comparative foreign policy Behaviouralism and pre-theory
Bureaucratic structures and processes
Decision-making during crisis
Cognitive processes and psychology
Focusing on cognitive abilities of decision-makers
“Multilevel, multudimensional” The general theories
The constructivist turn Identities before interests
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Rosenau’s ‘pre-theory’
• Ordering and ranking variables• Idiosyncratic• Role• Governmental• Societal• Systemic
• Situative• Issue itself• Sate (size, political accountability/level of democracy,
level of development)
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Bureaucratic structures and processes• Organizational context of decision-making• Graham Allison: Essence of Decision (1971)
• RAM• Organizational processes: decisions according to
standard operating procedures• Bureaucratic politics model: bargaining and competing
for influence
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Cognitive processes and psychology• Focus on decision-makers’ cognitive abilities (perception)• Robert Jervis on misperception
• actors see what they want to see• pre-existing beliefs• wishful thinking
• Margaret Herman• Studying 54 politicians charateristics• experience• style• political socialization• world view
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Multilevel, Multidimensional
• Realism lost its dominance• Strategic realism• Liberalism• International Society• Neomarxism
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Foreign Policy Analysis 2Various approaches
Approaches to foreign-policy analysis
Traditional approach Focus on decision-maker
Comparative foreign policy Behaviouralism and pre-theory
Bureaucratic structures and processes
Decision-making during crisis
Cognitive processes and psychology
Focusing on cognitive abilities of decision-makers
“Multilevel, multudimensional” The general theories
The constructivist turn Identities before interests (ideas, discourse)
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A Level-of-Analysis ApproachKenneth Waltz (1959)
1. Systemic level (distribution of power, interdependence)
2. Nation-state level (type of gov., relations between gov. and society, bureaucratic make-up of the state
3. Level of the individual decision-maker (way of thinking, beliefs, priorities)
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Systemic level
REALISM LIBERALISM CONSTRUCTIVISM
Main theoretical proposition
Main instruments policy
Post-Cold War prediction
Anarchy. States compete for power and security
States want progress and prosperityCommitment to liberal values
Collective norms and social identities shape behaviour
Military and economic power
Institutions, liberal values, networks of independence
Ideas and discourse
Resurgence of great-power competition
Increased cooperation as liberal values spread
Agnostic: depends on content of ideas
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Systemic level
• Realism is more powerful when IS variables are tightly constraining
• But even if realism works...• ... which?• Defensive or Offensive
• What does matter?• Relative power or the perception of relative power
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The Level of the Nation State
• Two important dimensions• State-society relations• Decision making within the state apparatus
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The Level of the Nation StateState-society realtions
Realist view Liberal view
Sate dominates foreign policy Society (groups, individuals) is an important factor (socilogical and interdependence liberalism)Zakaria: state power is that portion
of national power the government can extract for its purposes
Democracies are more peaceful (republican liberalism) But why?
But why?
Realists: democratic change can threaten international stability
Republican liberals: because citizens are peace loving
Authoritarian regimes are more powerful in extracting nation power
Moravcsik: foreign policy reflects the preferences of different groups and individuals in the society
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• RAM (rational actor model) or if rationality is not working then
• Bureaucratic approach or ‘Groupthink’ approach
The Level of the Nation StateDecision-making process within the apparatus
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The Level of the Nation StateDecision-making process within the apparatusBureaucratic approach (Allison and Zelikow) Groupthink (Janis)
Survival, agency interest Illusion of invulnerability
Competition for positions (struggle for expansion and growth,“imperialism”)
Belief in inherent morality of the group
Intra-agency bureaucratic culture Collective rationalization
Asymmetrical power distribution between professional bureaucrats and elected officials
Out-group stereotypes
Bargaining, accommodation, compromise Self-censorship
Proposals for change are driven by political considerations
Illusion of unanimity
Questions concerning control, accountability and responsibility...
Direct pressure on dissenters
Self-appointed “mindguards”
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• Examples for groupthink failures• Pearl Harbor• Bay of Pigs invasion• Vietnam War
• And success• Marshall Plan• Cuban missile crisis
The Level of the Nation StateDecision-making process within the apparatus
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• (Holsti, 2004): ‘Cognitive constraints on rationality include limits on the individual’s capacity to • receive, process, and assimilate information about the
situation’ • identify the entire set of policy alternatives
• fragmentary knowledge on the consequences• inability to order preferences on a single utility scale
The Level of the Individual Decision-Maker
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• (Alexander George, 1980)• Cognitive abilities...• Pro: Help us to organize and make sense of what
would otherwise be confusing and overwhelming• Contra: beliefs and constructs simplify and structure
the external world
The Level of the Individual Decision-Maker
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• (Jerel Rosati, 2000): the effects of human cognition and policymaker beliefs on foreign policy1. Trough the content of policymaker beliefs
(John Foster Dulles, Averell Harriman, Robert McNamara)2. Trough the organization and structure of policymaker beliefs
Coherent and comprehensive belief systems (Brzezinski) vs.
Fragmented and sketchy belief systems leading to ‘uncommitted thinking (Carter)
3. Through common patterns of perception (or misperception)John Foster Dulles on the Soviets, American decision-makers on the Vietnam War
4. Through cognitive rigidity (and flexibility) for change and learningRigid belief system: Henry KissingerHistoric turning points in the belief system of American policy makers: Pearl Harbor, Vietnam War
The Level of the Individual Decision-Maker
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• Steve A. Yetiv (2004): Why did America choose to go to war in the Persian Gulf?• Facts:
• 02.08.1990: Iraq invades Kuvait, 4 days later makes Kuvait its 19 province
• UN resolutions condemn the invasion and demand Iraq’s withdrawal• 5 months of negotiations• 16.01.1991: US led war against Iraq, 5 weeks later cease fire
Going to War in the Persian GulfCase Study
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• Steve A. Yetiv (2004): Why did America choose to go to war in the Persian Gulf?• Approaches:
Going to War in the Persian GulfCase Study
Systemic level: RAM and realist assumptions
Nation state level: groupthink model
Decision maker level: cognitive approach
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Going to War in the Persian GulfCase Study
Nation state level: groupthink model
Group of four Group of eight
George H. W. Bush Dan Quayle
Brent Scowcroft John H. Sununu
James Baker Dick Cheney
Robert Gates Colin Powell
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Experts and ‘Think Tanks’
• Think tanks: disseminate useful information and provide xpert advice on international issues and problems
• Experts: in the US linked rather to private organizations like think tanks and not to university departments or government bureaus. Some of them are public intellectuals.
Fareed Zakaria Thomas Friedman Samantha Power
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‘Think Tanks’
• 1910: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• 1919: Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace
• 1921: Council on Foreign Relations1920: Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House)
• More than 2000 institutions in the US alone
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The Rand Corporation
E.g. Rand: to destroy Al Qaeda, the US must end the war on terror.
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Most Important International Institutions?