institute of radiation protection conclusion of the 5 th eu framework projects bioclim and biomosa...

Institute of Radiation Protection

Conclusion of the 5th EU Framework Projects BIOCLIM and BioMoSA for Performance

Assessments of Radioactive Waste

Disposals G. Pröhl

GSF-National Research Centre for Environment and Health, Neuherberg Germany

D. TexierANDRA – Agence Nationale pour la gestion des

Déchets Radioactif, France

EURADWASTE’04, Luxembourg, 31 March 2004


Underlying problem• Radioactive waste needs to be isolated from the

environment and humans• Regulatory standards

– Adequate isolation of radioactive from biosphere and humans

– Limitation of possible radiological consequences due to hypothetical releases of radionuclides to the environment

• Demonstration of compliance • Biosphere changes with time: Impact of climate


BioMoSABiosphere Models for Safety Assessment of

Radioactive Waste Disposal based on the Application of the Reference Biosphere Methodology

• 2-year EU 5th framework project• December 2001- November 2003• 6 participants

– GSF, Germany (Coordinator)– CIEMAT, Spain– NRPB, UK– SCK CEN, Belgium– Studsvik EcoSafe, Sweden– University Veszprem, Hungary

EURADWASTE’04, March 29- April 1, 2004, Luxembourg C TR ASMG 04-0028

Session VII – Geological Disposal : Biosphere Modelling in Pas

BIOCLIM

Modelling sequential BIOsphere systems under CLIMate change

for radioactive waste disposal

Objectives and scopes

D. Texier

ANDRA - Agence Nationale pour la gestion des Déchets Radioactifs, France.


Objectives of BioMoSA• Development of site-specific biosphere models

for 5 sites in Europe using the BIOMASS Reference Biosphere Methodology

• Comparison of structure, results and uncertainties

• Development of a generic biosphere assessment tool

• Compare site-specific and generic models• Identify relevant site-specific and generic

features, events and processes


BioMoSA – assumptions and endpoints• Assessment as realistic as possible• Present day conditions

– Technology, society, living habits

• Radionuclides (incl. daughters)– Cl-36, Se-79, Tc-99, I-129, Cs-135,

Ra-226, Pa-231, Np-237, U-238, Pu-239

• Time frame– 90 % of equilibrium in soil achieved

• Annual effective doses – infants and adults– Uncertainty of doses


Sites considered• Hungary:

– Intensive agriculture– Cold winters, hot summers – Pronounced rain deficit during the vegetation period

• Spain– Extensive land use– Mild winters, hot and very dry summers

• Belgium, Germany – Intensive agriculture– Mild winters, cool summers– Low to moderate precipitation deficit

• Sweden– Extensive agriculture– Cold winters and cool summers, – Little precipitation deficit


Geosphere Biosphere Interface

• Belgium: well, river

• Germany: well

• Hungary: well lake

• Spain: well, dam, river, sub-surface soil

• Sweden: well, lake, sub-surface soil

• Generic: all possible interfaces


Example: Use of radioactively contaminated

well water: Exposure Pathways• Ingestion

– Drinking water for humans – Watering cattle– Irrigation of crops– Fish consumption

• Inhalation of contaminated dust• External exposure

– Contaminated arable land– Contaminated river/sediments


• Model setup – Site-specific parameters

• Exposure / Activity in well/surface water – [Sv/a per Bq/m³]


Normalized exposure to adults (mSv/a per Bq/m³)

1E-7

1E-6

1E-5

1E-4

1E-3

1E-2

No

rmalised

exp

osu

re

(mS

v/a

per

Bq

/m³)

Belgium

Spain

Germany

Hungary

Sweden


Well scenario, stochastic calculations:Ratio 95/5-percentile of adult exposure

1

10

100

1000

Belgium

Espana

Germany

Hungary

Sweden


Generic model• Development of a generic model

– Contains all FEPs– Contains all Geosphere-Biosphere-Interfaces

• Comparison against site-specific models

• Identification of important pathways

• Suggestions for model simplification


German site, well scenario 5th and 95th percentile infant total dose

1.00E-07

1.00E-06

1.00E-05

1.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.00E+00C

l-36

Se-7

9

Tc-

99

I-12

9

Cs-

135

Ra-

226

Pa-2

31

U-2

38

Np-

237

Pu-2

39

Tot

al d

ose

(mSv

)

Germany_nrpb 5%

Germany_nrpb 95%

Germany 5%

Germany 95%


Conclusions I• Drinking water dominating• In general, little differences between sites• Uncertainty

– Ratio 95/5 percentile around a factor of 10

• Some parameters need reconsideration– Cl-36, Se-79, I-129

• Root uptake• Migration• Transfer to milk and meat• Parameters partly conflicting


Conclusions II• Generic model provides acceptable

agreement with site-specific model• Larger uncertainties for releases to

– Lakes – Marine – Deep soil

• Transfer is more complex– More site-specific– More difficult to generalize– Poor data

BIOCLIM

http://www.andra.fr/bioclim

•A 3-years European project under the 5th Framework Program

• October 2000 - December 2003

• Coordinator : ANDRA

• 12 participants (UK, B, D, CZ, SP, FR)

•Technical Secretariat : ENVIROS Quantisci (UK)

• 5 Work Packages

• 13 deliverables : available on the project web site



BIOCLIM : Objectives

To provide a scientific basis and practical methodology

for assessing

the potential impacts of long-term climate change

on Biosphere characteristics

in the context of radiological Performance Assessments (PAs)

For 5 regions of interest in Europe

Over the next 1 million years

Quantitative scenarios of climate changes numerically produced

Narrative descriptions of future Biosphere changes (states + transitions)



BIOCLIM : Regions of interest

Bure (48.6°N; 5.7°E)

Central England (51.6°-54.8°N; 0-2.8°W)

Toledo Area (38°-41°51’ N; 1°30’-6°30’ W)

Padul Peat Bog (37°N; 3°40 ’W)

Cullar-Baza Basin(37°20 ’-37°55 ’; 2°20 ’-2°50 ’W)

Czech Republic (48°55’N-49°28’N;

15°E-15°35’E)



Representation of Biosphere Systems Changes: States and Transitions

Climate Biota Soils Human TopographyWater Bodies

Climate Biota Soils Human TopographyWater Bodies

Present day Biosphere

Future Biosphere

T1

T2

T3



BIOCLIM : Work Packages

WP1 : Consolidation of the Needs

WP2 : Hierarchical strategy = snapshots

WP3: Integrated strategy = sequences

Global scale

Regional scale

WP4 : Biosphere systems description (constant + transitional)

WP5 : Dissemination of results



Numerical Experimentsmore likely situations – not extreme

Transient sequences of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP3)

•The next 1000kyr (zoom on +200 kyr) for 3 different CO2 scenarios :• Scenario 1: natural CO2 variations only

• Scenarios 2 & 3: natural CO2 variations + Fossil Fuel Contribution

Snapshots of future climate & vegetation patterns (WP2) A very near future : high atmospheric [CO2] with or without ice sheets

• A super interglacial (67kyr AP) : high insolation, high atmospheric [CO2], no

ice sheets

• A glacial maximum (178kyr AP) : low [CO2] , large ice sheets



An example of climate scenario at regional scale :

The French natural climate evolution



Simulation of future climate evolution at global scale+

Reconstruction of past regional climate conditions

A4: Northeast France

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Time (ka AP)

Index Temperate oceanic

Climate classes :(Køppen/Trewartha classification)

Boreal

Periglacial

Toundra

DOWNSCALLING METHOD

Narrative descriptions offuture biosphere changes



• Descriptions of the potential next 200 ka biosphere system evolution developped for each region of interest.

• Possible impact of anthropogenic driven climate perturbation.•combined transient / •snap-shots climate simulations, and• the regional environmental paleo reconstructions.

• Future states of biosphere identified. Transitions between these states described.

• Importance of accounting for transition time laps discussed.

=> See BIOCLIM D10-12 report

Conclusions (1)



• BIOCLIM provides a comprehensive methodology to integrate climate-driven environmental change to biosphere modelling of performance assessments

• BIOCLIM has provided many data for climate modelling for Europe – these may used as source if climate change should be included in performance assessments

• National organisations may complement these results with their own studies

• Several climate-change scenarios can be combined to give a number of biosphere states and transitions for analysis

Conclusions (2)



• States and transitions provide an appropriate framework for developing structured descriptions of environmental change

• The BIOMASS methodology was found to be appropriate for characterising biosphere states

• State descriptions may be the basis for biosphere models

• Radiological evaluation of the states and transitions are needed by setting up appropriate simulation models

Conclusions (3)



• More work remains to identify key aspects of transitions for performance assessment purposes and show their integration in assessment models

• This framework has been applied only to the biosphere – it would be equally applicable to the geosphere

• It would be useful to extend the methodology to include other human and Earth system processes that cause environmental change.

• Some aspects are being studied in the BIOPROTA Project

For more information, please contact :



http://www.andra.fr/bioclim

Delphine Texier, Andra, France (Co-ordinator of BIOCLIM and WP 1 & 5), [email protected]

Marie-France Loutre, UCL/ASTR, Belgium (Co-ordinator of WP2), [email protected]

Didier Paillard, CEA/LSCE, France (Co-ordinator of WP3), [email protected]

Paul Degnan, NIREX, UK (Co-ordinator of WP4), [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]





institute of radiation protection conclusion of the 5 th eu framework projects bioclim and biomosa...

Documents

hungary slide

bqm slide

conflicting slide

model simplification

biosphere modelling

impact of climate slide

poor data slide

generic models