insight summit gfk netherlands
TRANSCRIPT
© GfK© GfK
Insight Summit
GfK Netherlands 01-Jun-21
1© GfK
© GfK 2
Welcome
GfK NL Insight Summit 2021
Andy Hut
Commercial Director GfK Netherlands© GfK
© GfK
AgendaPresentations including polls and Q&A with our experts
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 3
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Presentation I
Presentation II
Presentation III
Retail in economic perspectiveGerarda WesterhuisSenior Sectoreconoom Retail & Leisure ABN AMRO
Retail Reloaded: lasting changes in buying behaviorDanny van den BurgRetail Lead GfK Nederland
Impact pandemic on brands?Ilse van VeldenCommercial Lead Consumer Panel GfK Nederland
Retail in economic perspective
Gerarda Westerhuis, sector economist Retail and Leisure
Sector Advisory
GfK Nederland Insight Summit
1 June 2021
Source: Ramingen Economisch Bureau ABN AMRO
Recovery expected in 3Q and 4Q 2021
5
Unemployment still decreasing after peak in August
6Source: CBS
Bancruptcies and discontinuations
7Source: CBS
Vacancy rate retail space relatively low due to governmental support
8Source: Locatus
Consumer confidence growing, but still below 10 years average
9Source: CBS
Online consumption increases with 7%
10Source: CBS, Thuiswinkel markt monitor
Online consumption: strong growth in products (+43%),
but also strong decrease in services (-39%) in 2020
Electronics: increase online continues after first lockdown in March
11Source: ABN AMRO Transactiedata
Huge differences between branches
12Source: ABN AMRO Transactiedata
Source: FSIN Beleidsmonitor 2021-2025
Before corona 33% was spent in horeca; 67% in supermarkets. By now this ratio is 22-78. Due to price differences and
working from home, horeca will not recover completely.
3.465
3.230
Spending on food (excl. tobacco) per capita
13
Business confidence increasing after second lockdown
14Source: CBS
Forecast 2021-2022
Volumegroei per subsector
2020 2021 2022
%-j-o-j mutaties
Retail totaal* -2 -1,5 1,5
- Supermarkten 4,6 -1 -1
- Speciaalzaken in voeding 2,5 -1 -1
- Kleding -19,2 4 7
- Schoenen -17,0 2 4
- Consumentenelektronica 5,7 0 1
- Woonwinkels/meubels 5,8 -4 -1
- Winkels in doe-het zelfartikelen 17,8 -6 0
- Drogisterijen -0,6 0 -1
- Automotive** -6,6 4 3
- Groothandel non-food** -3,0 1 1
- Onlineretail 35,8 20,0 15,0 Bron: CBS, prognoses ABN AMRO Sector Advisory. *Retail totaal betreft zowel offline als online verkopen en inclusief automotive en groothandel non-food. In de ‘fysieke’ branches zit een deel online, namelijk van bedrijven die hun internetverkopen niet apart aan het CBS melden. Internetomzet die apart bij het CBS gerapporteerd wordt, valt onder ‘Online Retail’ in dit overzicht. Hierbij is wel deels sprake van overlap met andere branches. **Bij deze branches gaat om (mutatie in) omzet, bij de andere branches om mutatie in verkoopvolumes. Groothandel non-food is gebaseerd op eerste 3 kwartalen 2020
Source ABN AMRO Sector Advisory
Perspective Retail sector 2021 - 2025
Vooruitzichten
Food Retail
Vooruitzichten
Automotive
Vooruitzichten
Groothandel Non food
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Verkopen nieuw onder druk (2021
390/m,+9,5%), ca 80% via leasemij
en groei 2e hands
▪ Groei EV (>25% verkoop nieuw)
door subsidiering en mindset
▪ Vanaf 2020: strengere EU-normen
CO2 uitstoot nieuwe modellen
▪ Door elektrisch rijden afname
aftersales. Door 2e hands nog
handhaving omzet
▪ Digitalisering aankoopkanaal en
minder locaties
▪ Toename belemmerende
(lokale)wetgeving
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Consolidatie in de markt
▪ Vanaf 2021 nieuwe E-modellen
▪ Zorg digitalisering (D2C) en
afname aftersales
▪ Rendement en nieuwe
verdienmodellen (MaaS,
deelrijden, abonnementen)
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Strijd handhaving Covid
omzetgroei van 10% door méér
foodservice en delivery
▪ Herstel branchevreemde
concurrenten (niet
supermarkten, out of home).
Maar thuiswerken impact op
serviceshops op trafficlocaties
▪ Toename online, nu 6,5%
marktaandeel, 2025 > 10%
▪ Blijvende druk online op
rendement
▪ Groeiende vraag naar
convenience, gezondheid en
duurzaamheid
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Voor margebehoud is
samenwerking in keten nodig
▪ Beperken van (plastic)afval en
foodwaste
▪ Verbeteren van de service
▪ Doorontwikkeling van online
▪ Introductie foodservice
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Groei door internationalisering
▪ Concurrentie door platformen
▪ Concurrentie door
transparantie online en D2C
door fabrikanten/merken
▪ Onderscheidend vermogen in
keten door assortiment,
service, opleidingen, voor- en
achterwaartse integratie,
leveringsbetrouwbaarheid en
risico mitigatie in supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe blijf ik onderscheidend in
de keten?
▪ Handelsbelemmeringen VK
▪ Bestaansrecht van afnemers in
de Retail
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Forse concurrentie online en
offline (oa ‘Gigantisme’) zet
marges onder druk
▪ Aanhoudende groei online
(30% aandeel totaal)mede
door Covid en buitenlandse
platformen
▪ Afname fysieke locaties:
indikking winkelgebieden en
bedrijfsbeëindigingen
▪ Retour problematiek blijft
▪ Onderscheiden op prijs,
assortiment, service en MVO
▪ Risico spreiding supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe overleef ik en blijf ik
onderscheidend?
▪ Antwoord op online
▪ Fysieke locatie strategie
▪ Inzet van duurzaamheid
▪ Beschikbaarheid goed
personeel
▪ Rendement onder druk
Vooruitzichten
Non food
Perspective Retailsector 2021 - 2025
Vooruitzichten
Automotive
Vooruitzichten
Groothandel Non food
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Verkopen nieuw onder druk (2021
390/m,+9,5%), ca 80% via leasemij
en groei 2e hands
▪ Groei EV (>25% verkoop nieuw)
door subsidiering en mindset
▪ Vanaf 2020: strengere EU-normen
CO2 uitstoot nieuwe modellen
▪ Door elektrisch rijden afname
aftersales. Door 2e hands nog
handhaving omzet
▪ Digitalisering aankoopkanaal en
minder locaties
▪ Toename belemmerende
(lokale)wetgeving
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Consolidatie in de markt
▪ Vanaf 2021 nieuwe E-modellen
▪ Zorg digitalisering (D2C) en
afname aftersales
▪ Rendement en nieuwe
verdienmodellen (MaaS,
deelrijden, abonnementen)
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Groei door internationalisering
▪ Concurrentie door platformen
▪ Concurrentie door
transparantie online en D2C
door fabrikanten/merken
▪ Onderscheidend vermogen in
keten door assortiment,
service, opleidingen, voor- en
achterwaartse integratie,
leveringsbetrouwbaarheid en
risico mitigatie in supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe blijf ik onderscheidend in
de keten?
▪ Handelsbelemmeringen VK
▪ Bestaansrecht van afnemers in
de Retail
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Forse concurrentie online en
offline (oa ‘Gigantisme’) zet
marges onder druk
▪ Aanhoudende groei online
(30% aandeel totaal)mede
door Covid en buitenlandse
platformen
▪ Afname fysieke locaties:
indikking winkelgebieden en
bedrijfsbeëindigingen
▪ Retour problematiek blijft
▪ Onderscheiden op prijs,
assortiment, service en MVO
▪ Risico spreiding supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe overleef ik en blijf ik
onderscheidend?
▪ Antwoord op online
▪ Fysieke locatie strategie
▪ Inzet van duurzaamheid
▪ Beschikbaarheid goed
personeel
▪ Rendement onder druk
Vooruitzichten
Non food
Vooruitzichten
Food Retail
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Strijd handhaving Covid
omzetgroei van 10% door méér
foodservice en delivery
▪ Herstel branchevreemde
concurrenten (niet supermarkten,
out of home). Maar thuiswerken
impact op serviceshops op
trafficlocaties
▪ Toename online, nu 6,5%
marktaandeel, 2025 > 10%
▪ Blijvende druk online op
rendement
▪ Groeiende vraag naar
convenience, gezondheid en
duurzaamheid
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Voor margebehoud is
samenwerking in keten nodig
▪ Beperken van (plastic)afval en
foodwaste
▪ Verbeteren van de service
▪ Doorontwikkeling van online
▪ Introductie foodservice
Perspective Retailsector 2021 - 2025
Vooruitzichten
Food Retail
Vooruitzichten
Automotive
Vooruitzichten
Groothandel Non food
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Verkopen nieuw onder druk (2021
390/m,+9,5%), ca 80% via leasemij
en groei 2e hands
▪ Groei EV (>25% verkoop nieuw)
door subsidiering en mindset
▪ Vanaf 2020: strengere EU-normen
CO2 uitstoot nieuwe modellen
▪ Door elektrisch rijden afname
aftersales. Door 2e hands nog
handhaving omzet
▪ Digitalisering aankoopkanaal en
minder locaties
▪ Toename belemmerende
(lokale)wetgeving
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Consolidatie in de markt
▪ Vanaf 2021 nieuwe E-modellen
▪ Zorg digitalisering (D2C) en
afname aftersales
▪ Rendement en nieuwe
verdienmodellen (MaaS,
deelrijden, abonnementen)
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Strijd handhaving Covid
omzetgroei van 10% door méér
foodservice en delivery
▪ Herstel branchevreemde
concurrenten (niet
supermarkten, out of home).
Maar thuiswerken impact op
serviceshops op trafficlocaties
▪ Toename online, nu 6,5%
marktaandeel, 2025 > 10%
▪ Blijvende druk online op
rendement
▪ Groeiende vraag naar
convenience, gezondheid en
duurzaamheid
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Voor margebehoud is
samenwerking in keten nodig
▪ Beperken van (plastic)afval en
foodwaste
▪ Verbeteren van de service
▪ Doorontwikkeling van online
▪ Introductie foodservice
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Groei door internationalisering
▪ Concurrentie door platformen
▪ Concurrentie door
transparantie online en D2C
door fabrikanten/merken
▪ Onderscheidend vermogen in
keten door assortiment,
service, opleidingen, voor- en
achterwaartse integratie,
leveringsbetrouwbaarheid en
risico mitigatie in supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe blijf ik onderscheidend in
de keten?
▪ Handelsbelemmeringen VK
▪ Bestaansrecht van afnemers in
de Retail
Vooruitzichten sector
▪ Forse concurrentie online en
offline (oa ‘Gigantisme’) zet
marges onder druk
▪ Aanhoudende groei online (30%
aandeel totaal)mede door Covid
en buitenlandse platformen
▪ Afname fysieke locaties:
indikking winkelgebieden en
bedrijfsbeëindigingen
▪ Retour problematiek blijft
▪ Onderscheiden op prijs,
assortiment, service en MVO
▪ Risico spreiding supply chain
Top of mind ondernemers
▪ Hoe overleef ik en blijf ik
onderscheidend?
▪ Antwoord op online
▪ Fysieke locatie strategie
▪ Inzet van duurzaamheid
▪ Beschikbaarheid goed personeel
▪ Rendement onder druk
Vooruitzichten
Non food
Check out: abnamro.nl/retailContact details
Gerarda Westerhuis
Sr. Sectoreconoom Leisure & Retail
06 – 29 09 88 87
Retail Reloaded: Lasting changes in buying behavior
Danny van den Burg
Retail Lead GfK Nederland
© GfK
Agenda
01-Jun-21 21
Findability
PurposeBalance
Budgeteering
Fluidity
Climate
Change
Recession
COVID-19
Digitalism
Shopper
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
© GfK01-Jun-21 22
Findability
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
27%
strong
change
Shopped
as fast as
possible Different
products
than usual
Shopped in
(specialized)
online stores
1
2
Make a shopping list
for my groceries
Try different products
than I usually buy
Top 2 growing behaviorsnext 12 months
Top 3 drivers
of changePast 12 months
How has last year
changed behavior?
1Shopping as fast
as possible
Top 2 declining behaviorsnext 12 months
2Shopping weekly
groceries online
© GfK© GfK
Online share has made a leap to a new level
Source: Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor Q4 2020; (Thuiswinkel.org, PostNL, Betaalvereniging, iDeal)
01-Jun-21 23
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020
Online share in spending - products
14%
16% 16%
17%
19%
22% 21%
27%
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK© GfK
Increased importance online visibility across all categories
Source: Thuiswinkel Markt Monitor Q4 2020; (Thuiswinkel.org, PostNL, Betaalvereniging, iDeal)
01-Jun-21 24
Online share in spending 2020
Online share in spending 2019
66% 66% 56% 53% 45% 45% 40% 39% 23% 20% 16% 6%
55% 60% 43% 42% 37% 33% 36% 27% 17% 16% 13% 4%
37%
30%
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK© GfK
Online presence is needed to generate growth, both in FMCG and Electronics
Source: GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, GfK Consumer Panel FY2020 vs FY 2019
01-Jun-21 25
FMCG Supermarkets The Netherlands Sales value growth rate FY 2020 vs FY 2019
+7%vs FY 2019
Pure Online Players
+65%vs FY 2019
+95%vs FY 2019
SupermarketsOnline
SupermarketsBricks
Technical Consumer Goods The Netherlands Sales value growth rate FY 2020 vs FY 2019
+0%vs FY 2019
Pure Online Players
+51%vs FY 2019
+43%vs FY 2019 Omnichannel
Online
Brick & Mortarstores
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK
Support omnichannel retail
01-Jun-21 26
Consult Become trustedEducateStand out
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK01-Jun-21 27▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
22%
strong
change
Used food
to improve
my mood Searched for
tips on
healthy living
Special
attention
to mental
wellbeing
1
2
Special attention to
physical health
Moderate ‘bad’
foods and drinks
Top 3 growing behaviorsnext 12 months
Top 3 drivers
of changePast 12 months
How has last year
changed behavior?
3Special attention to mental
wellbeing and happiness
Declining behaviorsnext 12 months
1Use food to improve
my mood
Balance
© GfK
Dutch consumers want to get fit And get a fresh new look while doing so
52%
39%
31%
27%
24%
14%
Lose weight
Take up a sport
Invest in a 'fresh' new look
Eat less meat
Meditate / practice mindfulness / yoga
Drink less alcohol
Three aspects you would like to do (Netherlands)
Source: GfK ad hoc study Behavior Change May 2021 NL n= 652
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 28© GfK
© GfK
Health and fitness gets a boostSmart workout equipment grows as smart TV takes on fitness
Source: GfK Consumer Life, Tech & Digital Lifestyle 2020 study (Europe = BE, FR, GER, IT, ESP, SWE, UK); GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking 2020
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 29
37% sales growth of core wearables(fitness tracker/
smartwatch) in 2020
European consumers plan to buy smart workout equipment in next 1-2 years14%
brought its Health Platform to smart TVs
with free content & instruction videos from top fitness/
meditationapps
© GfK
© GfK
Apps are transforming health and fitnessGen Z and Millennials are leading the adoption
Source: GfK Consumer Life, Tech & Digital Lifestyle 2020 study (Europe = BEL, FR, GER, IT, ESP, SWE, UK)
27
9
12
12
25
9
11
9
17
5
6
5
12
5
5
3
7
3
0
1
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers Pre-Boomers
Nutrition tracking
Sleeptracking
Monitoring vitals (blood pressure,
glucose, etc.)
Exercise/fitness tracking
apps used past 30 days
Between Q1 & Q2 2020,
health/fitness app downloads grew
by 25% in Europe
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 30© GfK
© GfK
Anticipate on shoppers' desire to get fit
01-Jun-21 31
InspireInformFocus
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK01-Jun-21 32▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
19%
strong
change
Looked to
others for
inspirationBuy brands
that promote
social
equality
Switch
to local
products
1
2
Stop buying a product
because of amount
of packaging
Effort to buy
environmentally
friendly products
Top 3 growing behaviorsnext 12 months
Top 3 drivers
of changePast 12 months
How has last year
changed behavior?
3Effort to buy products that
care for animals
Purpose
© GfK
Environmental concerns are risingBeing green serves as a badge of honour
Source: GfK Consumer Life Global 2020 (Europe = BE, FR, GER, IT, ES, SWE, UK, RUS)
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 33
2016 2018 2020
#23
22
19
16#15Preserving the Environment
Helping to preserve nature(rank)
#15 personal value (out of 57) in 2020 in Europe,
up 8 ranks from 2016,
Up in 21 countries around the globe surveyed in 2020-5 pts
+10 pts
GfK Green Gauge Global 2020 (Europe = BE, FR, GER, IT, ES, SWE, UK, RUS)
© GfK
© GfK
Relayed responsibility Manufacturers are expected to act, but businesses hardly trusted
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
Source: GfK Who Cares Who Does 2020 EU-10
Believe environmental claimson labels/advertising
Trust claims companies make about their business practices related to
the environment
35%
25%
34© GfK
© GfK
The sustainability paradox An ongoing battle of energy efficiency versus performance
Source: GfK Consumer Life 2020, (Western Europe = BE, FR, GER, IT, ES, SWE, UK); GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, EU 10: AT, BE, DE, ES, FR, GB, IT, NL, PT, SE, units %, MDA 5: Washing Machines, Tumble Dryer, Fridges, Freezers, Cooking; Value sales share % 2015 vs 2020
7% 5% 5%
11%2% 2%
49%
29% 28%
19%
30% 30%
13%
33% 34%
2013 2019 2020
A+++
A++
A+
Other
A
European major domestic appliances market: energy label development (units)
Refrigerators > 500l22% (2015)
27% (2020)
Washing machines > 9kg
Cooking > 70l
Increasing need for convenience and performance
17% (2015)
41% (2020)
23% (2015)
50% (2020)
(Value sales%)
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 35© GfK
© GfK
Act to preserve the environment
36
Make it visibleUnite to build scaleDon’t ignore
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK01-Jun-21 37▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
17%
strong
change
Shopped at
different
times Shopped in
different
stores
Ordered
more
delivery and
takeaway
1
2
Shopping at different stores
Shopping at different times
Top 2 growing behaviorsnext 12 months
Top 3 drivers
of changePast 12 months
How has last year
changed behavior?
1 Less snacking
Top 2 declining behaviorsnext 12 months
2Less meal delivery /
takeaway
Fluidity
© GfK
New habits create new opportunities
Source: GfK Pick-up & Delivery monitor NL 2021. Source: Consumer Insights Engine, consumer panel 2020 vs. 2019
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 38
Up to 64% will continue to
regularly work from home after
the restrictions.
Targeted shopping Number of shops visited before tech purchase
88,647 95,349
57,551
79,073
Q1 - 2020 Q1 - 2021
# Occasions (x 1000 orders)
+ 37%
+ 8%-13%
- 9%
Offline
Online
Trips per buyerFMCG
-4%
© GfK
Delivery
Pick-up
© GfK
@home creates opportunities
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 39
@home
Eat@home
Office@home
Entertain@home
© GfK© GfK
© GfK
Pandemic-borne pockets of growth for 2021
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 40
PeripheralsNotebooks
Monitors Espresso machinesTablets
Large TVs Gaming
Audio
Smartphones
1H ‘21 2H ‘21 2022
Extension and upgrades
Hygiene, Health & Well-being
Sport Travel/ Out of home
Work@home
Entertain@home
Content Subscriptions
Feezers Kichen machines Espresso machines
Extension and upgradesEat@ home
Food - delivery
Activity trackers
© GfK
© GfK
Be ‘fluid’ in your market approach
01-Jun-21 41
Grab & EmbraceInnovateAdapt
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK01-Jun-21 42▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
14%
strong
change
Products
with a special
lifestyle benefit
for me Pamper with
premium
Special
attention to
quality
1
2
Try to shop in stores
with best promotions
Pay special attention
to quality
Top 3 growing behaviorsnext 12 months
Top 3 drivers
of changePast 12 months
How has last year
changed behavior?
3Try to keep the total amount
of my basket low
Budgeteering
© GfK
Value for money is by no means the only choice factor in Food: health, natural and safety important
18%
23%
41%
42%
47%
Hygienic / safe product
Is natural, contains no artificial colours
Is on promotion
Good value for money
Healthy / not harmful to health
Food & Beverages | Buyer in % | Top 3 reasons
Source: GfK Shopper Navigator New Normal Sept 2020 NL
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 43
Top 5 choice factors…
© GfK
© GfK
In electronics we are willing to spend more for richerexperiences and products that make our lives easier
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 44© GfK
Performance
Simplification
Premium
© GfK
© GfK
Take account of the polarization of needs by facilitating budget and added value shopping
01-Jun-21 45
Facilitate budget
engineered shopping
Added value Private Label
and Hard Discount offering
Communicate
Benefits
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands © GfK
© GfK
Conclusion
01-Jun-21 46
Findability
PurposeBalance
Budgeteering
Fluidity
Climate
Change
Recession
COVID-19
Digitalism
Shopper
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
© GfK 47
Contact details
GfK NL Insight Summit 2021
Danny van den Burg
Retail Sales Lead
+31(0)6 53 19 43 20
© GfK
How did Covid impact future brand management?Key learnings of what we have
seen in multiple markets
Ilse van Velden
Commercial Lead – Consumer Panel
© GfK
Already living in a VUCA world, COVID-19 accelerated some trends
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 49
Volatile
Uncertain
Complex
Ambiguous© GfK01-Jun-21
© GfK
Previous crisis’s have shown that contraction periods can boost PL within FMCGPrivate Label jumped a level during the credit crunch and was retained afterwards and supported prior long term study
Source: Europanel Consumer Index - countries
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 50
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
PRIVATE LABEL VALUE SHARES WESTERN EUROPE
Q1’06 Q1’09 Q1’10 Q1’11 Q1’12Q1’08Q1’07Source: Lamey, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe, and Steenkamp
(2005). Based on Belgium1983-2004, USA 1971-2003, Germany
1975-2002, UK 1980-2003
Food price inflation
reached nearly 8%
in 2008
Note that PL growth is systemically related to business cycles!
The market behaviour perpetuates this result:
Retailers’ behaviour is countercyclicalBrand manufacturers’ behaviour is cyclical
Growth in expansion years: 2.3%Growth in contraction years; 7.7%
© GfK
Past crises more unidimensional and led to clearly defined rallying criesThis is different
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 51
9/11
Natural
disasters
Great
recession
COVID - 19
SecurityResources
(food, etc.)Economy
Health /
Emergency /
Services
Other
TBD
?
© GfK01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 52
It turned the world upside down and changed shopping behavior overall
© GfK© GfK
of consumers changed their FMCG shopping behaviour due to COVID-19
83%
Source: GfK Consumer pulse 2020, average of DE, IT, FR, GB, NL, BE, CZ
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 53
© GfK
Lower purchase frequency impacted buying opportunities for brands
01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 54
11%
8%
2%
-5%
17%
-6%
Value Volume Foodinflation
Frequency Basket Size Promotionvalue
Western Europe FMCG market development 2020 vs 2019
Source: Europanel FMCG Consumer Index & Barometer , inflation from Eurostat | GfK Consumer Panel – The Netherlands *NL Promotion universe based on 10 Dutch Supermarkets Total Promotion value comparison
(Promo Share = -0.5%)
9%
6%
3%
-4%
13%
8%
Value Volume Foodinflation
Frequency Basket Size Promotionvalue*
NL FMCG market development2020 vs 2019
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Category shopping frequency increased, due to which brand loyalty dropped...
Source: BG20 3587 TOP 10 category brands in Germany, Ireland, Spain and UK
▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
8.6
46.8
9.2
45.2
Average category frequency Average brand loyalty %
2019 2020
© GfK© GfK
of consumers purchased TCG products sooner than originally planned
18%
Source: GfK Consumer Insights Engine Q2-Q4 2020 EU5, IN,CN, BR, JP, RU, NL, BE, SK Categories : Dishwasher, Washing machine/ Washdryer, Tumbledryer Refrigerator/Freezer, El. Kettle, Hot Bev. Makers, Vacuum Cleaner, Microwave Oven, Shaver/Trimmer, Mobile Phones (Smartphones), Laptop/Notebook, Tablet, Printer, TV, Gaming Consoles
69% had no change in purchase plans
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© GfK
Staying @home still drives demand inTech & Durable
Source: GfK Market Intelligence: Sales Tracking, Value & growth 2021 vs 2020, CE includes Multifunctional Technical Devices and SDA includes Personal Diagnostics | NL
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Sales Value EUR% / YTD April 2021
Consumer Electronics Information
Technologies
Small Domestic Appliances
Telecom
Major Domestic Appliances
Photo
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000
Gro
wth
Rat
e +
/-
Sales Value (*M)
Millions
Sales Value EUR% / YTD April 2021
TCG average
€537 million
TCG average
+11%Jan-Apr 2021
© GfK
Within SDA 22% growth for Health & Well-being PGs
Source: Product groups included for Well-being: BPM, Digital Thermometer, Personal Scales, Hot Air Fryers, Juicers/Presses, Liquidizers, Air Treatment, Water filter, Dental Care, Personal Care: Hair Stylers, Hair Dryers, Hair clippers, Shavers, El. Cosmetics YTD: Jan-Mar 2021 vs 2020
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29%
15%
56%1312126
25
Well-Being
Personal Care
Rest of SDA
Air treatment
Dental Care
Water Filter
Liquidizers
Fryers
Juicer/Presses
Personal Scales
Blood Pressure Monitors
Digital Thermometers
Sales Value Mio US $
Value Growth for Steam in Washing machines which is 26% of washing
machines. Steam kills bacteria aspect elevates Hygiene notion+85%
© GfK
But Covid or no Covid, crisis or no crisis Penetration remains KING!
Source: Europanel Barometer – 1034 categories in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
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To maximize choice at shelf
Advertise Innovate
Drive physical (and
mental) availability
Provide value for
money
© GfK
Local/Global FMCG Brands biggest penetration gainsPenetration growth 2020 vs 2019
Source: GfK Consumer Panel & Europanel – GfK – Kantar Brand Footprint report 2020 vs 2019
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1. Dettol
2. Lifebuoy
3. Vim
4. Maggi
5. Oreo
6. Heinz
7. Palmolive
8. Lay’s
9. Barilla
10. Coca-Cola
+5.3%
GlobalNL
+2.2%
+1.9%
+1.9%
+1.5%
+1.3%
+0.9%
+0.8%
+0.8%
+0.8%
1. Chicken Tonight
2. Sanicur
3. Milka
4. Dettol
5. Flora
6. Ranja
7. Délifrance
8. Olav’s
9. Multy
10. Oreo
+11.2%
+10.6%
+9.9%
+8.6%
+7.9%
+6.6%
+6.3%
+6.1%
+6.1%
+6.0%
© GfK
© GfK01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands 61
The battle continues, but not everywhere to the same extendWhilst PL share was slightly down in WE, it still increases in many
countries, however driven by the rise of discounters
Source: Europanel – GfK – Kantar Omnichannel report
3.5
2.52.2
2.0 1.9
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
-0.1 -0.2 -0.5-0.8
© GfK© GfK
What sets winning brands apart?
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© GfK
Target Group Management Focus on the relevant buyers and actual user groups in the market and activate their potential
Distribution
Decide on how to win the battlePrice-Promo Management
Brand / Product Assortment
The ability to identify relevant trends
Innovation & Trends
Ensure Mental availability and find winning concepts to attract and activate consumers
Communication
Define how you want to reach your target group in multiple ways
People
The ability to distinguish themselves from their competitors and the ability to adapt to changed circumstances quickly
01-Jun-21 63▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
Define consumer choice and create distinction
Agility
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The ability to identify relevant trends and barriers and act on them
Source: BG20 27 countries in Europe, USA and Latam 30.000 brands, 2015-2018, Innovation = new brand/sub-brand, renovation = new size/type/flavour
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Innovation & Trends
Although true innovations are the minority of new launches, they are worth much more to the brand
Average share of brand for innovations vs
renovations45% more Number of innovations
18% more Number of renovations
2020 vs 2019 top share winners vs. bottom share losers*
Many brands ‘won’ in 2020, but the real winners in share terms were the ones who had been innovating
© GfK
The ability to identify relevant trends and barriers and to act on them
01-Jun-21 65▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
Let's clean up!
# wear the change
Innovation & Trends
© GfK
Decide on how to win the battle
Source: BG20 3587 TOP 10 category brands in Germany, Ireland, Spain and UK. Premium brand at least 60% above category priceSource: BG20 19886 TOP 10 category brands in 19 countries
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BUT ...
In the 6 years to 2019 the average share for a premium brand dropped in nearly all major category segments
Between 2019 and 2020 the premium brand sector has still been showing growth despite Covid-19
Price-Promo Management
© GfK
Be visible for shoppers in & out of the store, surprise and seduce them
Source: Media Hologram YouTube | House of Rituals - Amsterdam
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Price-Promo Management
© GfK
How you want to reach your target group
Source: Based on GfK and Kantar Household panels in France, Germany, Italy, NL, Spain and UK Source: GXL – Age 13+ years
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As we know, online market shares increased dramatically in 2020 but once at the higher level, shares have stabilized
Distribution
Also increase of the visits of online shops after start corona and remains on a higher level
Monthly average VisitsOnline shops
© GfK
Expand your distribution for example with listing at discounters
Source: Europanel study of 277 discounter listings in 5 countries | Facebook Lidl Nederland
01-Jun-21 69▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
For the right brand, discounter listings can be win-win
Distribution
© GfK© GfK
If shoppers have a memorable positive experience
58%
Source: GfK Brand Architect Framework
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they have a higher market share than average
© GfK
What consumers think of brands in a category has a strong influence on private label share
Source: Europanel Global Private Label Study
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78 74 7486
138130 130 134
How muchadvertising
Value for money Brand trust How muchinnovation
Private label share index
High Low
PL share is lower in categories where
shoppers think that brands:
AdvertiseProvide good value
Are trusted Innovate
Maintain the investment
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Welcome
GfK NL Insight Summit 2021
Contact details
Ilse van Velden
Commercial Lead – Consumer Panel
+31 6 542 585 68
© GfK
© GfK© GfK
Questions?
Send us an email: [email protected]
73© GfK01-Jun-21 ▪ Insight Summit | GfK Netherlands
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Thank you
GfK NL Insight Summit 2021
Andy Hut
Commercial Director GfK Netherlands© GfK