india monthly risk forecast - mitkat advisory · 2017-02-16 · Ÿsri lanka: sri lanka votes for...

ŸSri Lanka: Sri Lanka votes for reforms and re-elects Wickremesinghe's UNP

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

SEPTEMBER 2015

Ganesh Chaturthi will be celebrated on September, heightened security should be expected

17th Janmashtami to be celebrated on 5th

, local police to enhance security measuresSeptember

Trade Unions gear up for nationwide strike on 2nd

; BMS opts to sit out

September

Communal scuffles and blame-game set the stage for the upcoming Bihar elections

ŸVeterans choose to go on hunger strike as government delays decision over military pensions

The Month That Was

Forecast For September

ŸPakistan: Citing Operation Zarb-e-Azb not adequate, US likely to discontinue counter terror allowance to Islamabad

Neighbourhood Scan & Spotlight

Naxal Trends: governments aim to expedite development projects in Maoist affected areas.

With numerous arrests and surrenders of Maoists, central and state

August 2015

Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa

30 31 1 2 4 53

6 8 10 11 1297

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27

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14

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16

23

30

7

17

24

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8

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25

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9

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w 2nd September:Trade Union Strike

w 5th September:Janmashtami

w 17th September:Ganesh Chaturthi

w 25th September:Foundation anniversary of People’s Liberation Army (Manipur)

Event Calendar

Expert Speak: Crisis Simulation to Ensure Business Continuity Preparedness

ŸMass rally by Patel Reservation Movement, results in violent clashes across Gujrat

ŸMultiple militant attacks in Jammu & Kashmir raises concern for the security situation in the state

ŸHeavy rainfall in the region results in floods across north-east India

ŸAfghanistan: Taliban has advanced, but not scored any strategic wins since the US pullout

ŸMyanmar: Military officers resign for elections

ŸMaldives : Maldives in danger of sliding back to authoritarian rule, reports Swiss rights group

ŸBangladesh: Security forces launch coordinated raids on Myanmar separatists

ŸSpotlight - Nepal: Public unrest over proposed constitution reforms lead to clashes across the country

The Month That Was

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A series of public demonstrations were launched across Gujarat in August. These were organised by the Patidar Anamat Andolan (Patel Reservation Movement) which demanded for the inclusion of the Patidar (Patel) community under OBC reservation quota in government jobs and colleges. After holding agitations throughout the state, a mass rally was organised in Ahmedabad on 25th , which was attended by nearly 25,00,000 members of the community, and almost brought the city to a standstill. Police personnel briefly detained the convener of Patidar Anamat Andolan, on the grounds that the rally was being held without police permission. As the news of the detention spread, violence broke out in Ahmedabad and later spread to other cities like Surat, Mehsana, Rajkot and some interior areas of the state. Nine people were killed in clashes across several cities and towns in the state, following which curfew was imposed in Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Mehsana, Patan, Palanpur, Unjha, Visnagar and Jamnagar. Several trains in the region were cancelled, after targeted attacks on trains in Ghatlodia and Chandlodia in Ahmedabad. Over 10,000 security personnel from the paramilitary forces and the Army were deployed in the state to deter further outbreak of violence. The situation in the state remained tense with curfew continuing for over 48 hours at some locations in the cities. However, no further incidents of violence were reported and normalcy soon returned. The next step of the Patidar Anamat Andolan appears to be to hold rallies nationwide to generate support, as its leaders seek out the highest authorities in Delhi to bring about a resolution to their demands. The Jat and Gujjar communities (who are also demanding reservations for jobs and education) announced their support to the Patel agitation, and are also expected to conduct simultaneous agitations in the coming months.

August

Mass rally by Patel Reservation Movement, results in violent clashes across Gujrat

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Multiple militant attacks in Jammu & Kashmir raises concern for the security situation in the state

Recent terror strikes all over Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) display a pattern which needs to be read and suitable deductions drawn to determine options in the execution of any anti-terror campaign. Earlier this month, four security forces personnel were injured when suspected militants lobbed a grenade outside a police station. Two militants were caught alive in separate incidents during encounters with the security forces. The army is now seeking to rope in locals for boosting intelligence in border areas of Jammu and Kashmir against the backdrop of these attacks, carried out by terrorists after infiltrating from Pakistan. The surge in terror activities in J&K in recent weeks coincides with an increased hysteria amongst the local youth in support of the militant movement. They are being associated with the global narrative of Islamic threat and culture clash. The definitive pattern in the rise in local recruitment by militant outfits, and the increasing attempts at infiltration from across the border, indicates a serious effort to intensify separatist violence in the state. With infiltration becoming difficult, there appears to be a strategy to indoctrinate youth from within the state itself. Not only is it the unemployed youth who are taking up arms, but it has been found that even educated youngsters have pledged allegiance to the likes of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen. With militants trying to increase their presence in the state by recruiting youth, the government in Jammu and Kashmir needs to counter this trend by proactively engaging the youth in other constructive activities.

The Month That Was


Heavy rainfall in the region results in floods across North-East India

The Himalayan region witnessed heavy rainfall in the latter half of August. This resulted in severe flooding in the north-eastern parts of the country, with Assam being the most affected. Over 6,50,000 residents were affected, and at least 20 killed, as Brahmaputra and its tributaries inundated villages and damaged roads and bridges, thus affecting transportation in the region and the effectiveness of rescue and relief operations. Floods were also reported from locations in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Sikkim with rivers inundating settlements along river banks. The incessant rainfall resulted in flash floods and landslides at Shillong and surrounding areas in Meghalaya. A massive landslide took place in East Jaintia Hills district in the state, which disrupted traffic movement on National Highway 44 which connects Assam, Mizoram, and Tripura. Low-lying regions on the outskirts of Shillong were inundated and residents had to be evacuated. After a brief respite from the rain, flood alerts were again issued at the end of August in Sonitpur, Darrang, Dibrugarh and Tinsukia districts of Assam, and some regions in West Bengal. The latest round of floods adversely affected surface communication in most of the towns, while transportation and communication links to several remote areas in the state were completely cut off. Power lines were also reported to be damaged in Kokrajhar, Dhubri, and some other districts. Inclement weather is expected to continue into September in the region, while major cities across the country (Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata) are also expected to witness rainfall. Organisations operating in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and West Bengal and the metro cities should re-visit their business resilience and continuity plans, test their capabilities and cater for emergency evacuation of employees well-in-time. Following meteorological news and advisories for updates on weather and traffic delays/disruptions will assist in efficient planning.

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The protests by ex-servicemen groups to highlight government inaction in implementing One Rank One Pension (OROP) were intensified in August, with some veterans choosing to go on a hunger strike. This announcement brought a lot of media exposure to the protests, further increasing the pressure on the government to implement the OROP scheme. The protests have been ongoing since June. Daily agitations have continued since then, and are mainly based at Jantar Mantar in Delhi, where the hunger strike is being staged. There were reports of alleged police brutality at Jantar Mantar as police personnel attempted to evict the protesters from Jantar Mantar ahead of the Independence Day celebrations, citing security issues. This police heavy-handedness only served to increase the focus on the protests with the incident being condemned nationwide. Ahead of the State Assembly elections in Bihar later this year, protesters demanding for the implementation of OROP have decided to extend their agitation to the conduct rallies/marches in the state. Bihar is understood to be a key political state where results of the Assembly elections can have national repercussions as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attempts to consolidate its power at the centre and across various state-level governments. Recent announcements by the government suggest that the demands for OROP have been accepted and negotiations on the final version of the scheme are underway. Although, with no deadline as such announced by the government, a further intensification in the protests is a distinct possibility as protesters and the citizens of the country demand a swift resolution to the stand-off.

Veterans choose to go on hunger strike as government delays decision over military pensions

Janmashtami, a Hindu festival which marks the birth of Lord Krishna, will be celebrated across the country on September 5. Devotees typically fast throughout the day, and stay up late past midnight. At midnight, huge crowds gather around to sing songs and exchange gifts.

For Janmashtami, the local police implements various measures to enhance the security setup around prominent temples and major roads leading up to them. Most Mandir Samities (Temple Administrations) take out Janmashtami processions, further affecting traffic. Almost all roads in the periphery of temples are either shut down, or partially pedestrianized. Commuters are advised to make use of metros and other public transport to minimize traffic disruptions.

Janmashtami is celebrated with great fervor in Maharashtra, North and Eastern states, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. It is also heavily celebrated in Nepal, and is a national holiday in Bangladesh.In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the main event is celebrated on the day of the festival and is called Dahi Haandi. It is a community event where thousands congregate to witness the breaking of a pot (haandi) by a collection of individuals (called Govindas) forming a human pyramid.

Although minor religious scuffles have been observed in the past, particularly in places such as Gujarat and the North East, no major incident of communal violence has occurred in the recent times. However, the threat of terrorism remains a very real possibility, due to the sheer number of people who flock together to partake in the celebrations.

Janmashtami to be celebrated on 5th September, local police to enhance security measures

Ganesh Chaturthi will be celebrated on 17th , heightened security September

Ganesh Chaturthi is an 11-day Hindu festival, where idols of Hindu deity Ganesha are worshipped for ten days, and then immersed in a water body, such as a lake. Devotees differ in their methods of practice, choosing different days and times for fasting and participating in mass worships. Although celebrated all across the country, the most elaborate and grand celebrations are held in Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka. Cultural activities such as singing and theatre performances, and community activities like free medical check-ups and blood donation camps are carried out with fervour.

Traffic is usually disrupted on the 11th day, when all the devotees carry the worshipped idols out to be immersed in water. The local police, along with major event organisers put up signages and posters, informing about major traffic diversions and plans. Major roads usually become one-way, and almost all roads become no-parking zones. Apart from the police, Rapid Action Battalions and the reserve State police are also deployed for maintaining law and order.

Due to massive crowding, petty crimes such as picking of pockets and chain-snatching are fairly common on Ganesh Chaturthi. Despite heavy police presence, mischievous activities by anti-social elements cannot be ruled out.

In the past few years, various reports have come to light where non-state actors, primarily the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and it India front Indian Mujahideen (IM) had planned to attack festivity gatherings in Mumbai, Pune, Chennai and a few other places. Although no terror incident has ever occurred on Ganesh Chaturthi, the general public is cautioned to be aware of their surroundings.

Forecast for September


Home

Large-scale communal conflagrations have not revisited India since the early 1990s, with the major exception of Gujarat 2002 and, to an extent, Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh 2013. But the slow simmer of communal conflict is on the rise in poll-bound Bihar since the break-up of the ruling JD(U)-BJP alliance in June 2013. An examination of police records from the state's 38 districts and a survey of the 18 districts that account for more than 70 per cent of these “communal incidents” have revealed a three-fold surge — from 226 between January 2010 and June 2013 to 667 between June 2013 and June 2015. An incident of eve-teasing, a minor road accident, a cricket match between two local teams, a dispute over a kite or a theft of a buffalo is increasingly likely to become the trigger for a clash between communities in areas where deliberate attempts have also been made earlier to stoke communal fault lines — by dumping carcasses of pigs and pieces of beef inside places of worship, defacing idols, tweaking procession routes and exhuming old disputes over the use of common land.

The BJP in Bihar insists that the rise in such incidents is only a part of a general slackening of grip of the Nitish Kumar administration on law and order after he broke ties with it. The JD(U) points to these incidents as evidence of a BJP design to polarise communities in time for the impending electoral test. Beyond the finger-pointing, however, both parties need to pause and assess the fallout of religious polarisation in today's Bihar. A return of communalism in Bihar will not just jeopardise the hard-won gains in a state where the fervent identity politics of old is being smudged and overtaken by newer political mobilisations of rising aspirations in an increasingly young electorate. It will also have diminishing returns for the “communal” and “secular” players, both of whom have benefited, in different ways, from the politics of polarization in the past.

Communal scuffles and blame-game set the stage for the upcoming Bihar elections

Forecast for September


Trade unions across the country have called for a nation-wide strike on 2nd to protest the changes to the labour laws and government's inaction towards their demands, including containing inflation, fixing minimum wages and putting in place universal social security to workers. The call for a strike is being supported by several national trade unions including the Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), AIUTUC, All India Central Council of Trade Unions (AICCTU), Indian National Trade Union Congress (INTUC), Hind Mazdoor Sabha (HMS), Trade Union Coordination Committee (TUCC) and United Trade Union Congress (UTUC).

Various trade unions are gearing up for the day and have been motivating its members to join the protests. Joint conventions to create awareness have been held both at the state and the industry level. The unions claim that over 10,00,00,000 workers of banking, insurance, transport, telecom, defense, and postal services sectors will join the strike, although railway workers will not be participating.

In a rare instance of a prominent central trade union breaking ranks with other labour unions, the Sangh Parivar-affiliated Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) on 29th decided not to take part in the industrial strike. The BMS, which has favored giving the government more time to fulfil its promises to trade unions, is India's second-largest labour union, in terms of membership numbers.

A similar strike was carried out on 30th this year across the country. As seen in the earlier strike, workers belonging to public transport sector will choose to be on strike and services expected to be severely hit. Although the strike is likely to be peaceful, given the political affiliations, sporadic and isolated incidents cannot be ruled out.

September

August

April

Trade Unions gear up for nationwide strike on 2nd ; BMS opts to sit outSeptember

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Afghanistan

Taliban has advanced, but not scored any strategic wins since the US pulloutThis year's fighting season is the first where the Afghan national forces have had to defend against the Taliban without overt US support, and so far they seem to be holding their ground. Although the Taliban have advanced in some contested rural districts, the insurgency has no spectacular victories to boast of. All of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals remain in government hands, as does the vast majority of district headquarters. Overall levels of violence, according to Afghan and U.S. military officials, are comparable to last year. This ability to maintain the precarious status quo even after more than 120000 U.S.-led coalition troops have departed the country represents, by itself, an important achievement.

But as Afghan forces' casualties mount and the U.S.-led coalition pulls its residual support, many Afghans and observers worry these achievements aren't sustainable. According to Afghan officials, army and police casualties have soared by more than 40% this year, now that the U.S. no longer routinely provides air support, medical evacuation or battlefield intelligence. The security and police forces are in despair and majorly lack ammunition, fuel and funds to carry out their job. Afghan forces are also hampered by political deadlock in Kabul. Almost a year after President Ashraf Ghani assumed office, the critical job of minister of defense remains vacant after the president's latest candidate was rejected by parliament. The U.S. now maintains just 9,800 troops in Afghanistan, most of them focused on advising or counter terrorism, and they too will be pulled out before the end of 2016, as per Obama's pledge.

Afghan officials are still hopeful of persuading the Obama administration of maintaining some international force in the country, post Washington's 2016 deadline, to assist with air support, counter terrorism and intelligence.

Pakistan

Citing Operation Zarb-e-Azb not adequate, US likely to discontinue counter terror allowance to IslamabadThe Pentagon could withhold hundreds of millions of dollars from Pakistan's military over concerns that it is not doing enough to combat insurgent groups that plan and coordinate attacks from its soil on neighboring Afghanistan. Since 2002, the Pentagon has reimbursed Pakistan about $13 billion for its support of the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. But Congress made part of this year's $1.1 billion payment contingent on Pakistan's willingness to crack down on the Haqqani network, a Pakistan-based group affiliated with the Taliban, that is responsible for some of the bloodiest attacks of the Afghan war. According to Pentagon sources and the Pakistani media, the US defense secretary has recently stated that sufficient action the Haqqani Network cannot be certified.

The move could send U.S.-Pakistan relations, which have greatly improved in the past year, into another period of tension. This report comes as Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other Afghan officials are urging the United States to get tougher on Pakistan over alleged ties between Pakistani intelligence agencies and the Haqqani network, amid a new series of attacks in Kabul.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb, was launched in June last year after TTP militants attacked the Jinnah International Airport, and intensified after the December Peshawar School massacre. Majorly combating insurgents in the North Waziristan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions, the Pakistani Rangers, along with air cover and some surgical strike support from US drones, have killed almost 1200 militants till date in the regions. However, for Washington, the point of contention is not the number of militants killed or capture, but rather whether the areas stay insurgency-free afterwards. Apparently, the Haqqani Network continues to flourish in Pakistan, and supports the Taliban in its fight against the Kabul regime.

Neighbourhood Scan


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Sri Lanka votes for reforms and re-elects Wickremesinghe's UNPThe Sri Lankan electorate has voted to sustain the changes that have taken place since the presidential election of January, when the common opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena scored a surprise victory over Mahinda Rajapaksa. In the intervening seven months, a minority government headed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe charted a shift away from the highly centralised and national security-dominant state structure that Rajapaksa had constructed to a more consensual mode of governance. In keeping with his election promise, Sirisena, with the backing of Wickremesinghe, championed the passage of the 19th Amendment to the constitution that reduced the power of the presidency, the scope for the abuse of power and strengthened parliament and state institutions such as the judiciary, public service and police. The main significance of the verdict is that it paves the way for the transformation of two key areas of governance. The first is for the consolidation of the changes that followed the reduction in the arbitrary powers of the presidency. The process can be sustained since almost all the political parties that opposed Rajapaksa have agreed that the system of checks and balances needs to be strengthened. In addition, both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe have pledged to establish a government of national unity, drawing representatives from all the parties, which will ensure a de-concentration and sharing of power. The second important transition the country needs to undertake is to end militarisation and antipathy towards ethnic minorities and move towards a society that respects multi-ethnic and multi-religious features.The new government will need to revive the economy that became debt-ridden, especially to China, balance its relations with China, India and the West, and cope with the international attention on human rights violations during the last phase of the war. It will also need to address longstanding grievances of the Tamils.

Sri Lanka

Neighbourhood Scan


Myanmar

Military officers resign for elections More than 50 military officers have been granted official permission to resign in order to be able to participate in the upcoming elections as Union Solidarity and Development Party ( candidates. The party confirmed that Senior General Min Aung Hlaing ordered a reshuffle of senior officers on 11th

, including a number of important positions. These officers have been in a long list of names submitted to USDP by the military for inclusion as candidates and have been accepted by the party at a central committee meeting, said Thura U Aung Ko, committee member of the USDP. The party's acceptance of the officers has then prompted the resignation order. President and ethnic leaders to meet on 9th to discuss ceasefire signingThe government's Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC) has said it is inviting the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), one of the groups absent from nationwide peace talks, for ceasefire negotiations in Yangon. Top officials led by President Thein Sein will meet leaders of ethnic armed groups in Naypyidaw on to discuss the signing of the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA). Colonel Tar Bone Kyaw, general secretary of TNLA, said that the group would be willing to hold the talks if the government has a 'real wish for peace'. The TNLA is one of six groups that the government has previously not included in discussions for a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. The TNLA was fighting against the Myanmar Army in Kokang Region, alongside the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Arakan Army. The issue had brought an impasse to the nationwide ceasefire discussions due to the other armed ethnic groups insisting that they will not sign an agreement until all of the country's armed ethnic groups are included.

The expected outcome of the meeting is not for the NCA to be amended, but rather to bring more ethnic groups under its purview. Both the sides are expected go into the discussion with more confidence, and the initial timeline for the signing of the NCA before the end of September is still being adhered to.

USDP)

August

September

9th September

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Maldives

Maldives in danger of sliding back to authoritarian rule, reports Swiss rights groupThe Maldives is in danger of sliding back to authoritarianism through political interference in its judiciary and a deteriorating human rights situation, a recent report from a civil rights groups has stated. The recent, high-profile prosecutions of the country's first democratically elected president, Mohamed Nasheed and former Defense Minister Mohamed Nazim have raised concerns regarding the independence and impartiality of the judiciary, judicial accountability and respect for the principle of separation of powers, as per the report. Titled 'Justice Adrift: Rule of Law and Political Crisis in the Maldives', the report was produced by the Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists and Colombo-based South Asians for Human Rights.

The Indian Ocean island nation emerged from decades of authoritarian rule in 2008 when a new democratic constitution was promulgated and the first multi-party elections were held. But the country's transition to democracy faced a setback in 2012 after Mr. Nasheed's government was forced from office by the opposition, in what supporters of the ousted president called a coup. New elections brought to power the party of former ruler Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who ruled the Maldives for three decades until 2008.

The report says the trials and subsequent sentencing of Mr. Nasheed and Mr. Nazim were grossly unfair and violated international fair trial standards.

The report urges the present administration of President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom to provide Messrs. Nasheed and Nazim with the opportunity for fair and transparent appeal hearings before an independent tribunal. It says that that if the appeals “fail to ensure fairness and impartiality,” the president “must exercise his authority under the Clemency Act to pardon the defendants to comply with the Maldives' international obligation” in the administration of justice. The report also asks the Maldivian government to ensure judicial independence and impartiality by changing the appointment process for judges. “The Maldives embarked on an ambitious democratization process in 2008,” the report says. “However, the transitional process has failed to implement critically needed reforms, thus contributing to the present crisis in constitutional governance and respect for human rights and rule of law.”

Neighbourhood Scan


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Bangladesh

Security forces launch coordinated raids on Myanmar separatists The Bangladesh Army and the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) have launched a joint operation in Bandarban hill district after a gun battle between the Arakan Army, a Burmese rebel group, and the border guards. On 26th , a patrol team of the border guards was ambushed by Arakan forces in Thanchi in Bandarban. The security forces immediately reinforced and chased the perpetrators with air cover by a Bangaldeshi Air Force. The BGB and the army have since launched a combined operation against them, in the remote bordering forests in Bandarban. The Myanmar Army has also been apprised of the situation, and have been promised full support to drive out the insurgents.

The remote hills on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border have been home to a range of separatist groups from neighboring Myanmar for decades. The groups – including the Arakan Army which was formed in 2009 and fights for the independence of Arakan state – have long posed a problem for Bangladesh's security forces along a poorly-policed border. Floods in the past two months have rendered thousands of people homelessContinuous heavy rains, and the recent cyclone have flooded most of the southern part of the country, rendering close to 2,00,000 people homeless. The worst affected locations are parts of Chittagong, Cox Bazar and Bandarban, and the southern parts of Barisal and Khulna. Apart from close to 30,000 homes which have been destroyed, essential infrastructure such as roads, rail and lines of communication have been severely disrupted and damaged. Agricultural produce and land too has suffered massively.

Since the major source of income for most of the rural communities in these parts was agricultural produce, salt production, shrimp farming and fishing, many people have lost their livelihood. International NGOs such as the Red Cross and others have set up makeshift shelters along the river embankments for the displaced population. However, shortage of funds and disrupted transport and communication lines have made transfer of emergency supplies a Herculean task.

The floods, which began at the end of June, inundated hundreds of villages in disaster-prone Bangladesh and left more than 200000 people stranded in and around the low lying southern districts.

August

Neighbourhood Scan


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Spotlight - Nepal


Public unrest over proposed constitution reforms lead to clashes across the countryProtests broke out across Nepal on 10th after four major political parties signed an agreement to divide the country into six provinces, a significant but contentious step toward creating a new constitution. The police fired on a protest in the district of Surkhet, killing two people and seriously wounding at least six demonstrators. In Surkhet, opponents of the agreement objected to the division of the country's midwest into separate provinces, even though lawmakers from the region agreed to the proposal. A crowd of protesters vandalised government offices, the offices of political parties and the houses of lawmakers in Surkhet, defying a curfew. Then the police resorted to riot control measures.

In Parsa, around 200 km from Kathmandu, locals observed a bandh demanding that Nepal's Hindu status be restored and the cow be declared the 'National animal' with a provision that its slaughter may carry strict punishment. Indigenous and disenfranchised groups across Nepal are protesting against the new Constitution, which they claim denies them political representation. The issue of federalism has long been contentious in Nepal, particularly in the south and mid-west of the country. Leaders of the Madhesi community in the southern plains and the indigenous Tharu community in the far western plains have objected to their regions being joined with districts that they say belong to the political elites. Leaders of these communities fear the erosion of their rights, and protests were reported in both regions. Many Madhesi parties have long fought for a separate province for the southern plains along ethnic lines, something that the governing political parties have long opposed. In June, the political parties agreed on a draft constitution, spurred by the need to rebuild the country after the massive earthquake on 25th , but the borders of the provinces were left undefined. As per the existing agreement, the six proposed provinces would run north to south, connecting hills to the plains, with each province bordering India. The goal is to keep each region economically viable. The parties also agreed to grant citizenship to any child whose mother or father was a Nepalese citizen, reversing an earlier proposal that would have required both parents to be Nepalis. On 24th , another bout of protests broke out in western Nepal, which resulted in the death of eight police officers. This forced the government to announce an indefinite curfew and deployment of the army to Kailali district in the country's remote far west, where demonstrations were still ongoing. Nepal has seen a string of protests in recent weeks, organised by members of historically marginalised communities, which have struggled to overcome decades spent as bonded slaves to high-caste landowners. Regional parties have long pushed for new provinces to be created along lines that could favour historically marginalised communities, but other legislators have opposed such proposals, saying it would be divisive and threaten national unity. Nepal's constitution has been undergoing revisions since 2008, and almost every time news of these revisions come up it has caused upheaval throughout the country. Although the Communist Party in government says they are attempting to field peace and reconciliation, many in Nepal have their doubts, and they worry that these new laws will favour the current majority while leaving the rest of the country voiceless.

August

April

August

Demarcated Province

Expected Coverage

Province 1 All districts of Koshi and Mechi zone; Solukhumbu, Okhaldhunga, Udayapur and Khotang districts of Sagarmatha zone

Province 2 Eight Tarai districts between Parsa and Saptari

Province 3 All districts of Bagmati zone (minusMakawanpur); Chitwan of Narayani zone; Sindhuli, Dolakha and Ramechhap of Janakpur zone

Province 4 All districts of Gandaki and Dhaulagiri zone; part of Nawalparasi district (east of Daunne)

Province 5 All districts of Rapti and Lumbini(beside Banke); Bardiya of Bheri zone; Part of Nawalparasi(west of Daunne)

Province 6 Seti, Mahakali and Karnali zones; Surkhet, Dailekh and Jajarkot districts of Bheri zone

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Crisis simulation to ensure Business Continuity Preparedness

Expert Speak


-Suseendran Pandian

Business continuity or business resilience is the ability to rapidly adapt and respond to business disruptions and to maintain continuous business operations. In simple terms, it is ensuring business and operational continuity by ensuring detailed planning, preparedness, and the capability to respond swiftly to any threat.

Concentrating only on disruptions can lead organizations to work cautiously, but an anticipatory approach to business resilience helps empower your organization to respond to an unanticipated incident more swiftly and more economically. A strong business continuity program can help not only in crisis situations, but also for external audits of the organization and demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements.Crisis management forms a part of the overall strategy for business continuity management. The crisis management plan specifies the accountabilities during a crisis of key individuals and unit heads within the organization. Your organization would not necessarily hope to experience a crisis, nevertheless if one were to occur, you would want your organization to possess the maximum experience to handle it quickly and effectively.

It's natural to think of a crisis as something huge or massive, natural calamity, international conflict, or sudden failure. But in practice, a crisis is any high-consequence incident that can threaten an organization's existence, value, reputation, or ability to operate. Crises can include malevolence, cyber assaults, misdeeds, financial crimes, financial distress, technological or industrial hazards, supply chain breakdown, natural catastrophes, geopolitical confrontations, and other catastrophes.

Organizations need a range of capabilities to manage crises effectively, including clear command structures, effective information management, common situational awareness, and transparent communication techniques. Crisis simulation is a demonstrated technique for developing and testing these capabilities using life-like scenarios.

Crisis simulations are one of the most efficient tools that can be used to train people to handle emergency situations, especially for situations with a low frequency of occurrence and a high potential of damage. A crisis simulation gives your team the experience, strengthens their skills and quickly identifies vulnerable areas within your crisis plan.

Benefits of SimulationŸProvides an opportunity to review and analyse riskŸValidates plans, processes and capabilitiesŸDevelops leadership skillsŸCreates internal awarenessŸProvides a team building opportunityŸHelps identify gapsŸIdentifies potential mitigating measuresŸStrengthens stakeholder relationships

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Expert Speak


Crisis Simulation/Exercise – The processThe crisis simulation begins with understanding the organization including the threats (both internal & external) against the organization. We also need to comprehend the crisis response mechanism of the organization that is already in place. The process involves identifying crucial strategic, tactical and operational threats. It also deals with identifying key stakeholders and decision makers.

The exercise later moves on to building scenarios, responses and respective consequences of those actions. The entire simulation would be moderated by crisis management experts/consultants which would help the participants better understand the scenarios and help with decision making. The simulation can be observed by the higher management and the crisis management consultants who could then provide an analysis of the entire exercise and a feedback of how the simulation worked.

Need for a Crisis Management ConsultantA crisis management consultant can speak without restrictions whereas a regular employee might be reluctant to do so. The consultant has probably handled similar situations earlier in the organization and use that experience to work for you. Someone outside of the organization has a different perspective and is therefore more likely to question existing assumptions, break through group-think mentality and offer creative solutions.

Most crisis management consultants also offer associated services, such as media management. A good consultant will have good connections with the broadcasting, government watchdogs, legal firms and others that could prove helpful in the organization's situation. A consultant's experience in running advanced simulations across hundreds of complex scenarios and industries can bring new insights and thinking to the organization's approach as well as the benefit of independent/external evaluation.

Suseendran Pandian , MitKat Advisory Services : Suseendran is an Analyst with MitKat Advisory Services' Geopolitical risk management practice. Based out of Mumbai, he holds a Masters' degree in Homeland Security from Gujarat Forensic Science University, Gujarat.

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Naxal Tracker - September

2015


August events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

Ÿ3rd – Jharkhand: Naxal leader involved in IED blasts in Chatra arrested

Ÿ3rd – Chhattisgarh: Naxal camp busted in Rajnandgaon district, weapons recovered

Ÿ4th – Chhattisgarh: Central government sanctions five thousand additional ITBP troops to be deployed in the state

Ÿ4th – Odisha: Three Maoists surrender in Malkangiri district

Ÿ5th – Chhattisgarh: 26 Maoists arrested in Bijapur district

Ÿ5th – Chhattisgarh: Two Maoists arrested in Kanker district

Ÿ6th – Maharashtra: Six Maoists including an area commander arrested in Aurangabad

Ÿ7th – Chhattisgarh: Four Naxalites arrested in Bijapur district in two separate incidents

Ÿ8th – Maharashtra: Police storm Naxal camp in Gadchiroli district, weapons recovered

Ÿ10th – Chhattisgarh: Five Naxals surrender in Kanker district of Chattisgarh

Ÿ10th – Chhattisgarh: Seven Maoists arrested in Bastar district

Ÿ17th – Chhattisgarh: Two Naxalites arrested in Chattisgarh in two separate incidents

Ÿ18th – Chhattisgarh: One CRPF constable killed and three others injured in a Naxalite attack in Bijapur districtŸ18th – Jharkhand: One constable killed, two others injured in a gun battle with Naxalites in Khunti districtŸ21st – Chhattisgarh: Four Maoists arrested in Dantewada districtŸ22nd – Chhattisgarh: One Special Task Force (STF) personnel killed in Bastar districtŸ23rd – Bihar: Maoist arrested with arms and ammunitions in Jamui districtŸ26th – Odisha: Three BSF personnel and a civilian killed in Malkangiri district

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MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - September

2015


Naxal TrendsMaoist extremism continues to be the biggest threat for the country's internal security. Development activities in Maoist-affected areas have slowed down due to attacks by insurgents who consistently target roads, electricity lines, power plants, railway tracks, Panchayat Bhavans, school buildings, and mobile towers. To counter this, the Cabinet Secretary directed various Ministries to expedite the completion of the ongoing projects on priority. Other issues including filling up of police vacancies, raising of Special India Reserve Battalions, forest clearances, claims of title deeds under the Forest Rights Act, opening of new schools and hostels, training of youth for skill development and priority to roads in LWE areas under the Pradhan MantriGraminSadakYojana have also been put on priority.

Bastar in Chhattisgarh, one of the most affected districts in Maoist insurgency has been assured of prioritized development by both the state government and the Ministry Home Affairs (MHA). To implement the concept of development along with security, strength of security personnel has been doubled which has enhanced participation of youths in security system of the state. To boost the morale of security personnel combating naxalism, facilities such as out of turn promotion, housing, insurance, job to kin of martyrs, special allowance, food allowance, training, have also been provided.

The MHA, which takes care of the internal security through the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), stated that there has been a steep decline in Maoist activities in the past few months. It also stated that the number of surrenders and arrests of Maoists have increased during the same period.

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Geo-Political Risk

Management


The interdependence of geo-politics and business interests creates opportunities and risks for business. A wide array of political, socio-economic, societal, legal/regulatory and environmental risks impact businesses of all sizes and complexities, to varying degrees.

Geopolitical risk assessment allows business owners to track and analyze current global and local events/ trends, and to comprehend the business risks and opportunities that they present to their business.

Geo-political risk management allows business leaders to de-risk and grow their businesses by comprehending these risks; and evolving and implementing resilient business strategies to mitigate their impact .

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