Predicting global mean temperature. Developments at ECMWF Merge of monthly forecast into EPS –Medium-range EPS is now continuous with monthly forecast

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<ul><li><p>Predicting global mean temperature</p></li><li><p>Developments at ECMWFMerge of monthly forecast into EPSMedium-range EPS is now continuous with monthly forecastResolution steps down from T399 to T255 after 10 daysHindcasts also have high resolution for first 10 daysForecasting system changes every few months hindcasts produced in near-real time. Runs to 15 days every day; to 32 days only once per weekOcean coupling switched off for first 10 days for the momentExperimental runs to 45 days</p><p>A first step towards unified NWP/seasonal prediction ??Tim Stockdale, WGSIP12</p></li><li><p>Monthly All India PrecipitationVEPSSEAS3Correlation with IMD station data- 1991-2007(Slides from Frederic Vitart)</p></li><li><p>Interannual variability of Atlantic hurricanes 1991-2007Correlation with HURDAT</p></li><li><p>Interannual variability of Accumulated Cyclone Energy 1991-2007 Correlation with HURDAT</p></li><li><p>Global Scores2mTm- Ensemble mean correlation with analysisAugust 1981-2007SEAS3- Month 2VEPS</p></li><li><p>Developments at ECMWFSeasonal prediction System 4New ocean model NEMONew ocean assimilation system 3D/4D VARNew coupling interface OASIS3Better treatment of lakes and sea-ice</p><p>Hope to have improved stratosphere (extra resolution, volcanic aerosols, improved gravity wave parameterization)</p><p>Consistent land surface initialization (stand-alone analysis system)</p><p>(Latest IFS cycle is much more active in tropics, generally more accurate, but has problems with easterly bias in equatorial winds, at least at TL159)</p></li><li><p>Developments at ECMWFDecadal predictionOnly as part of EU-funded projects:</p><p>ENSEMBLESTHORCOMBINE</p><p>EC-EARTHEuropean group adapting the ECMWF model for climate change workAttempt to keep technical infrastructure integrated with ECMWFWe may get feedback from some aspects of their work</p></li></ul>

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