monthly risk forecast - mitkatadvisory.com · hizbul mujahideen commander the month that was...

THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Attacks on Dalits by vigilante groups in Gujarat; massive protests witnessed

} Massive unrest in Jammu & Kashmir following the killing of a Hizbul Mujahideen commander

} With onset of monsoon heavy rainfall across the country; severe floods in Uttarakhand and Assam

} Strikes observed by government and bank employees, and transport unions across the country

FORECAST FOR AUGUST 2016

th} Unions in Mumbai threaten to go on indefinite auto-taxi strike from August 10

} Unrest in Manipur likely to continue, especially over AFSPA and 'anti-tribal' bills; curfew and bandh expected

th} Heightened security across India, as the country prepares to celebrate Independence Day on August 15

} Janmashthami celebrations could cause massive traffic congestions and increased security in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Mumbai

NAXAL TRACKER

} To bolster the fight against Maoists in Chhattisgarh Central Government approves the formation of a unique 'Bastariya Battalion' in the CRPF, comprised solely of men from local tribes. In addition, the Central Government has plans to redraw the Red Corridor, to reduce the number of Maoist-affected districts.

ISLAMIC STATE - SOUTH ASIA TRACKER

} India: IS module busted in Hyderabad with five arrests. In addition, reports surfaced of IS-related arrests in the country, and of Indians travelling to Iraq and Syria, from Kerala.

} Afghanistan and Bangladesh: IS claimed responsbiity for major attacks, signalling the growing ambitions of IS in South Asia.

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

} Bangladesh: 22 dead in attack on Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka; Islamic State claims responsibility Spotlight:

} Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi-led talks commence with various insurgent groups active in the country

} Pakistan: Government's move to amend the archaic 'honour killing' law of the country meets with stiff opposition from religious groups

} Afghanistan: Islamic State claims an attack on a Hazara rally in Kabul

} Sri Lanka: Dengue epidemic in the country; nearly 30,000 people affected since the start of the year

} Nepal: PM Oli resigns after Maoist party of Prachanda withdraws support. Severe landslides across the country leaves over 60 dead

} Maldives: Government continues crackdown on the Friday rallies by opposition groups

Increase in ATM frauds due to lack of customer awareness

EXPERT SPEAK

th rd thw July 28 to August 3 : Martyrs' week of Naxalite (Maoist) rebels w August 15 : Independence Day

th thw August 5 : Teachers’ association rally in Shillong w August 18 : Raksha Bandhan (restricted holiday)

th stw August 7 : Former BJP MP Navjot Sidhu's supporters to hold a rally w August 21 : Teej Festival (celebrated in Rajashtan)

thfrom Talkatora Stadium to Jantar Mantar, in Delhi w August 25 : Janmashtamith stw August 9 : Irom Sharmila to break her 14-years long fast in Imphal w August 31 : One-year anniversary of passing “anti-tribal” bills in

thw August 10 : Taxi and Auto Union strike in Mumbai Manipur (Manipur likely to be affected)

thw August 14 : Foundation anniversary of militant group HNLC

(Meghalaya likely to be affected)

EVENT CALENDAR

67 8 9 10

15 17 18 20

21 22 23 24 25 26

11 1314 16

27

28

1 2 3 4

12

19

29 30 31

August 2016

MONTHLY RISK FORECASTAUGUST 2016

5

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Jammu & Kashmir National National

thhe assault (July 11 ) on a group of Dalits by a carcasses was dumped outside the collector's Tvigilante cow protection group in Una town office. Dalits declared that cows would not be of Gujarat's Gir-Somnath district for allegedly buried until action was taken against the killing a cow, resulted in large-scale protests by attackers. The state government's actions, Dalit groups across the state. The four members appeals and assurances seem to have had no of a Dalit family were removing the carcass of a impact on the protesters. In addition, Dalit groups dead cow when the attackers, who were self- and opposition parties including Congress, AAP, proclaimed 'gau rakshaks' or cow protectors, and BSP along with Dalit organisations called for a

thlaunched attacks on them. The Una incident set statewide bandh on July 20 . off one of the largest Dalit uprisings the state of

society, such resistances are expected to increase. Gujarat has hitherto seen. Several young Dalit As many as 200 cow vigilante groups have sprung The clash along caste lines in India, could see a men attempted suicide by consuming pesticide, up Gujarat, in the recent years. They have become surge as the ones historically considered a 'lower in their attempt to demand justice for the Dalit a law and order problem in Gujarat because of caste', rise to demand equal rights and justice. family. their aggression and the way they take law into

their hands. In the last year there have been Politically, the incident might not harm the ruling The protests, which erupted in the Saurashtra around a dozen instances of such groups party of Gujarat, BJP, in elections as Dalits region of Gujarat, quickly spread to Ahmedabad intercepting vehicles or raiding slaughter houses comprise only 7% of the state's population. and several other parts of the state, triggering in Gujarat. Attacks by such vigilante groups are However, they form a sizeable chunk in the other violence in which a policeman was killed, state known to occur across the country. Other forms two important states, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, transport buses torched and roads blocked. of atrocities against Dalits such as the one against going to the polls next year. A combination of Several incidents of stone-pelting and road Rohit Vemula, are also seen to be on the rise. As Dalit and Patel agitations can have a significant blockades were reported from many parts of the Dalit community becomes more politically impact on the BJP's poll prospects in the state. Gujarat. In Surendranagar, a truckload of cow and socially aware of its rights and status in the

Attacks on Dalits by vigilante groups in Gujarat; massive protests

witnessed

India Monthly Risk Forecast - August 2016

The Month

That Was

Monthly

Forecast

Gujarat

1

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assive violent protests erupted in the MKashmir Valley, a day after Hizbul Meanwhile, in Wani's native town in Tral, nearly Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was 20,000 people participated in his funeral prayers.

th Burhan Wani was tagged as the social media killed, on July 8 , in an encounter with security poster boy of militancy in the Valley. He was killed forces, The protests lasted nearly the entire along with two accomplices in a gunbattle with a month of July. Curfew was imposed for around joint force of army and police personnel at 17 days in Srinagar and other parts of Kashmir Kokernag area, 83 kms from Srinagar. He became Valley, due to the violent protests. But that did a militant at the age of 15, and was seen as the not prevent violent clashes between protesters face of the new generation of militants in Kashmir. and the security forces in which nearly 50 people Recently, he appeared in a video asking young have been killed and thousands injured. Mobile pelting in Jammu and Kashmir so far this year; 730 Kashmiris to join militancy. Burhan is considered Internet services were suspended for 17 days in incidents of severe protests and stone pelting to have brought the militant movement back to the Jammu region; similar ban was imposed on were seen in the entire 2015 in which five civilians Kashmiri youth, and his death could serve as the the Kashmir Valley. The Amarnath Yatra was were killed and 240 injured, and 886 security rallying point for recruitment of local Kashmiri suspended as a precautionary measure. In forces personnel were injured. The coming into militancy. In recent times, funerals of addition, top separatist leaders, who were at the months are expected to be tense for the Kashmir militants have been drawing huge crowds, in the forefront of the agitation, were put under house Valley, with the security forces being on the Kashmir Valley. arrest, as a precautionary measure. The security highest level of alert. In Kashmir, a smallest trigger

forces came under intense criticism for their use can result is large-scale violent protests. More thof pellet guns on the protesters, which led to the This year, till July 25 , as many as 3,550 security violent unrest by the local population, could be

eye injuries to many protesters. It prompted the force personnel and 2,309 civilians were injured witnessed in the near future. Indian Government to announce that an expert following severe protests and stone pelting team formed to explore alternatives to pellet incidents in Jammu and Kashmir. There have guns. been 1,029 incidents of severe protests and stone

Massive unrest in Jammu & Kashmir following the killing of a

Hizbul Mujahideen commander

The Month

That Was

Monthly

Forecast

Gujarat Jammu & Kashmir National National

2India Monthly Risk Forecast - August 2016

n July, several parts of the country came affected for about two months because of the Iunder the spate of the monsoon. The state of damaged condition of NH-8, which connects Assam was severely affected by floods with Tripura to the rest of the country. Violent protests around 19 lakh people affected; 21 districts were witnessed in Agartala when petrol price hit were inundated due to breach of river Rs 300/litre and diesel at Rs150/litre. To ration the embankment by Brahmaputra and its fuel supply, the state government implemented tributaries. An area of 1.83 lakh hectare of an 'odd-even' scheme for fuel distribution. agr icultural land was submerged. In Uttarakhand, the rains triggered recurring Some of India's major cities also suffered due to landslides, which blocked National Highways the monsoon rains. In Gurgaon, traffic leading to the Badrinath and Kedarnath shrines. congestions of nearly 18-20 hours were reported, expected to continue throughout the country, for The monsoon rains also led to a rise in the water pressing the district administration into disaster the month of August. The situation as witnessed level of major rivers in Uttarakhand including management mode. In India's IT Capital, in Gurgaon, Bengaluru and Mumbai could be seen Ganga at Haridwar, sparking fear of floods in the Bengaluru, the residents battled with hours of again as most cities in India are plagued with an low-lying areas of the state. The railway tracks traffic congestions, waterlogged roads and inefficient drainage system which can lead to an

thwere also blocked by debris due to landslides. flooding. On July 29 , the residents of adverse situation for commuters due to heavy Akshaynagar, Kodichikkanahalli and Arakere water-logging of transport routes and flooding of

Elsewhere, at least 55 people were killed in layout along Bannerghatta Road witnessed water low-lying areas. Towns and villages established heavy rains and thunderstorms in different levels rising to at least four feet in their area, around rivers are at a greater risk of floods and districts of Bihar. Heavy rains were also which flooded at least 40 houses. Similar scenes landslides due to breaking of embankments. In witnessed in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya of traffic congestions and water-logging were addition, instances of water-borne diseases also Pradesh. In Tripura, a badly damaged NH-8 reported in Mumbai and Delhi as well. increase during the monsoon season.disrupted the supply of essential commodities, including fuel. Daily life in the state has been According to forecasts, the monsoon season is

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Gujarat

With onset of monsoon heavy rainfall across the country; severe floods

in Uttarakhand and Assam



ormal banking operations got disrupted depending on private and own vehicles for thNacross the country on July 29 , as bank commuting. In addition, private transporters and

employee unions went on a strike to protest app-based cab services had a surge in pricing to against merger of SBI's associates with the cater for the high demand. The government had parent and privatisation of IDBI bank. Over a declared a two-day holiday for both private and million bank employees and 80,000 branches government schools and colleges in anticipation participated in the strike. The employees of of the indefinite strike. The protests also turned public sector banks, old private banks, regional violent causing law and order issues for the rural banks, foreign banks and co-operative authorities. In Karnataka, the industry had to bear banks participated in the strike. The strike the brunt of strikes for one week due to various based cab companies in Delhi. Technology reportedly impacted customer transactions agitations. First it was the transport union strike powered taxi apps are now being opposed pan-worth about Rs 12,000 crore to Rs 15,000 crore. and then the agitation by various groups over the India via strikes and protests. Strikes by auto and

Mahadayi issue, which culminated in a statewide taxi operators have been held in Mumbai, thMeanwhile, in Karnataka, the transport unions bandh on July 30 . Bengaluru, Kolkata, Kochi and Delhi. Protests are thwent on strike for three days from July 25 to th

already scheduled for Mumbai on August 10 . th27 . More than one lakh employees' of In Delhi, the autos and taxis (black and yellow) Governments seem to unable to deal with the transport corporations were on strike with were off the streets for three days to protest enormity of these protests and have done little to about 40 demands, prominent among them against the app-based cab companies. The strike calm the fears of the protesters and citizens. Such being a 35 per cent wage hike, while the caused massive inconvenience to the commuters protests are expected to continue, affecting government has offered a 10 per cent increase. in the national capital. The Delhi government normal life of the people as well as have a The strike ended when the government agreed deployed an additional 300 buses from ISBTs and detrimental effect on the economy.to a 12.5 per cent pay hike. The strike affected railway stations. Around 85,000 auto-rickshaw normal life as most of the state transport buses owners and 15,000 yellow-black taxi operators stayed off the roads and public were seen have declared a strike to protest against app-

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Gujarat

Strikes observed by government and bank employees, and transport

unions across the country



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axi and auto rickshaw unions in Mumbai Maharashtra Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis. Thave announced to go on an indefinite strike thfrom August 10 . The unions had previously Currently, Mumbai's taxis include black and

announced that the strike would be held from yellow cabs, Cool Cab air-conditioned taxi thAugust 5 , however, they postponed it to a later services, and radio cab services. The tariff of all

date as a gesture of cooperation. The these taxis is fixed by the transport authorities. In announcement found significant support from the past few months, app-based cabs have taxi and auto drivers in the city, including major become popular due to their low rates during unions such as Mumbai Taximen's Union (MTU) non-peak hours, easy availability and better and Mumbai Autorickshaw and Taxi Union quality AC vehicles. The unions are protesting (MATU). One of the unions, Jai Bhagwan Taxi and against app-based taxi aggregators in the city. The Autorickshaw Sanghatana (JBTRS) stated that it taxi unions contend that the app-based cabs are

aggregators to ensure a level playing field for all was absolutely serious about the agitation from illegal, while traditional cabs follow all the rules th taxi operators. The proposal is likely to be cleared August 10 , while also insisting that it would be a laid down by the transport authorities. The

by the state cabinet sometime in next few days as total bandh in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region unions want restrictions on surge pricing as that is taxi drivers have planned a strike from August (MMR), including Thane and Navi Mumbai. where app-based cabs profit. As these cabs

th10 .Reportedly, the Nitesh Rane-led Swabhiman charge more during peak hours, the non-peak Sanghatana, another influential union, is also hour charges are much less. The unions had

If in case the proposal doesn't go through, the taxi backing this union. The unions had previously withdrawn their strike after CM's intervention unions may go ahead with the strike, in which staged a protest against cab aggregators at Azad and his assurance that regulations will drafted for

st case commuters using public transport could be Maidan on June 21 . The unions had also app-based aggregators as well. The Maharashtra th severely affected.threatened to strike on July 26 , but had called government is likely to introduce rules to put

off the strike after the intervention of restrictions on surge pricing by app-based taxi

Unions in Mumbai threaten to go on indefinite auto-taxi strike th

from August 10

The Month

That Was

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Mumbai Manipur National Event CalendarNational


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The Month

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he Supreme Court recently held that armed has proposed to introduce a new anti-tribal bill in Tforces cannot use excessive force even in Manipur. The decision to introduce the bill in the areas that come under the Armed Forces Special forthcoming session of the Manipur Assembly Powers Act (AFSPA) and ruled that over 1,500 was made during an all-party meet at the Chief cases of alleged fake encounters in Manipur, Minister's office, earlier in July. The Joint Action over the last 20 years, must be investigated. Committee against Anti-Tribal Bills (JACAATB) and Since the 1970s, according to the Extra Judicial Outer Manipur Tribal Front (OMTF) had labelled Execution Victim Families Association the bill as an insult to the tribal people in the (EEVFAM), there have allegedly been 1,528 fake state. In a joint meeting of JACAATB and OMTF on

thencounters in Manipur. Human rights activists July 18 , the groups resolved to boycott the blame AFSPA for the killings, alleging that the Congress party holding them responsible for law gives blanket protection to the army and drafting and introducing the three 'anti-tribal' Manipuri commandos to kill with impunity. bills which were passed by Manipur Legislative Human rights activists also allege that AFSPA is Assembly in August 2015. They also resolved to state, especially with the state assembly elections being misused by the armed forces in the boycott the Independence Day celebrations in scheduled in 2017. There have been protests, insurgency prone state. Rights activists in the state. The committees also recognised the demonstrations and shutdowns in the state Manipur believe that many of the killings are need for a separate political entity for the tribals leading to violence and general disruption of life linked to the gallantry awards handed out to the of the state and decided to call a wider in the past. commandos. A gallantry award in Manipur consultation and awareness campaign at the translates into an out-of-turn promotion, a earliest possible. It also decided to observe

stsalary raise and better prospects of rising in the August 31 every year as the “Tribal Unity” in ranks. Manipur.

In another development, the state government These developments could lead to unrest in the

Unrest in Manipur likely to continue, especially over AFSPA

and 'anti-tribal' bills; curfew and bandh expected

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Mumbai Manipur


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ths India prepares to celebrate its 69 witnessed violent protests in July thAIndependence Day on August 15 , security ŸGujarat, mounting over the last four months,

forces have been put on a state of high alert sparked by the discovery of five abandoned following recent important incidents that may fishing boats along Pakistan borderhave security implications. Rich in symbolism, ŸMumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad this period has been traditionally used by forces ŸPunjab; due to the recent terror attacks in the inimical to India (terrorists, insurgents, state by Pak-based terrorist groups separatists, fundamentalists and pro-Pakistani ŸJharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Bihar to militants) to create alarm, unrest and even Maoist attacks violence to draw international media attention. In addition, the security teams guarding vital roads leading up to critical infrastructure and Given the tense security situation in Jammu & installations have been asked places of national importance. State boundaries Kashmir and the growing threat of Islamic State Ÿto step up "perimeter vigil and night patrolling" of Delhi and other sensitive states are also terrorists across the world, extremely high level Ÿensure fool proof visitors entry drills expected to be highly guarded. It would be of security will be put in place across the Ÿcounter-sabotage checks advisable to stay vigilant of your surroundings to country. Heightened security will especially be ŸVehicles are being checked at various entry and stay safe and secure, carry a valid proof of identity witnessed in the metro cities such as Mumbai, exit points in the districts bordering Bangladesh to avoid unnecessary hassles in security checks Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai, along to tackle any attempt of terror activity and cater for delays in the periods leading to and with Jammu & Kashmir and other sensitive post the Independence Day. Unnecessary travel states. The susceptible areas include: However, apart from sporadic rallies and minor to politically polarised areas should be avoided. ŸDelhi – NCR incidents in Jammu & Kashmir and North-Eastern Commuters in Delhi should expect some of the ŸThe porous and lengthy Indo-Bangla border in states, no major incidents have occurred on or Metro stations to be closed in the Central Delhi

the five states of West Bengal, Tripura, around the Independence Day, in any major city, area.Meghalaya, Assam and Mizoram over the last few years. Robust security posture

ŸJammu & Kashmir; the state has already and stringent security checks can be expected on

Heightened security across India, as the country prepares to celebrate th

Independence Day on August 15

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anmashtami or Krishna Jayanti, celebrates could manifest into violent disagreements. The Jthe birth of Krishna, an important deity in presence of these mass celebrations and mandals Hindu culture. The festival is celebrated with cause traffic congestion and problems like great vigour throughout India. This year it will be excessive littering. It also causes the issue of

thcelebrated on August 25 . On the previous day, sound pollution. For Janmashtami, the local celebrations last late into the night when police implements various measures to enhance devotees throng temples and observe a fast. the security setup around prominent temples and Janmashtami is celebrated with great fervor in major roads leading up to them. Most Mandir Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Samities (Temple Administrations) take out Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. It is also heavily Janmashtami processions, further affecting celebrated in Nepal, and is a national holiday in traffic. Almost all roads in the periphery of Bangladesh. In Maharashtra and Karnataka, the temples are either shut down, or partially main event is celebrated on the day of the pedestrianized.

advisories issued by local traffic police. Also festival and is called Dahi Haandi. It is a advised to make use of public transport to avoid community event where thousands congregate Although minor religious scuffles have been time delays due to traffic congestions. Extra vigil to witness the breaking of a pot (haandi) by a observed in the past, particularly in places such as s h o u l d b e m a i nta i n e d w h i l e p a s s i n g collection of individuals (called Govindas) Gujarat and the North, no major incident of through/participating in the celebrations and do forming a human pyramid. communal violence has occurred in the recent not carry/wear unnecessary valuables in crowded times. However, the threat of terrorism remains a places. It is important not to panic in case of any Every year thousands of people and hundreds of very real possibility, due to the sheer number of incident; follow instructions given by relevant Govinda teams gather at Mumbai and Thane's people who flock together to partake in the authorities. In general, it is always recommended Dahi Haandi events. The politicisation of the celebrations. It is recommended to cater for to maintain heightened situational awareness events and the huge amounts of prize money traffic diversions and route changes on the day of and take steps to bolster personal safety.involved often lead to tensions, some of which the festival. In addition, it is advised to follow

Janmashthami celebrations could cause massive traffic congestions and

increased security in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Mumbai

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NationalManipur

The Month

That Was

th rdw July 28 to August 3 :

stw August 5 :

thw August 7 :

thw August 9 :

thw August 10 :

thw August 14 :

thw August 15 :

thw August 18 :

stw August 21 :

thw August 25 :

stw August 31 :

Martyrs' week of Naxalite (Maoist) rebels

Teachers’ association rally in Shilong Former BJP MP Navjot Sidhu's supporters

to hold a rally from Talkatora Stadium to Jantar Mantar, in Delhi

Irom Sharmila to break her 14-years long fast in Imphal

Taxi and Auto Union strike in Mumbai Foundation anniversary of militant group

HNLC (Meghalaya likely to be affected) Independence Day Raksha Bandhan (restricted holiday) Teej Festival (celebrated in Rajashtan) Janmashtami One-year anniversary of passing “anti-

tribal” bills in Manipur (Manipur likely to be affected)

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Mumbai Event CalendarNational

9

Key DatesAugust 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

5

7 8 9 10

15 17 18 20

22 23 24 25 26

14 16

1 2 3 4

19

29 30 31

6

11 12 13

21 27

28


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The Month

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slamist militants killed 20 people, including at liberals, gays, foreigners and religious minorities. Ileast nine Italians, seven Japanese and an The government has dismissed those claims and American, inside an upmarket restaurant in Dhaka insists that the violence is homegrown. Local

ston July 1 , before security forces stormed the authorities claim that no operational links exist nd

building and ended a 12-hour standoff on July 2 . between Bangladeshi militants and international Six gunmen were killed during the police operation Jihadi networks. They further claim that two local and one was captured after more than 100 militant groups, Ansar-al-Islam and Jamaat-ul-commandos concluded their operation to clear Mujahideen, have been behind the violence over the cafe. Two policemen were killed in the initial the past 18 months. It is not yet clear whether they assault. The hostage crisis began when assailants belonged to either of the two main domestic

promoting gay rights. Ansar follows the ideology ran into a building housing the restaurant in militant movements blamed for a spate of attacks in and methods of al Qaeda, that could make it more Gulshan district of Dhaka, popular with recent months on bloggers, university teachers and potent. Debating whether terror attacks are carried expatriates. Islamic State claimed responsibility members of religious minorities. out directly by IS or simply inspired by IS or by for the attack, and even while the siege was still on, homegrown extremists detracts from the main the group published grisly pictures from inside the Ansar-al-Islam, considered the better coordinated point of how to tackle the rise of extremism in restaurant apparently sent by the assailants. and more dangerous of the two until now, had Bangladesh.Bangladesh needs to acknowledge the However, the authenticity of the images has not pledged allegiance to al Qaeda, while Jamaat-ul-fact that even if a domestic terrorist group was been established. Mujahideen had claimed to represent Islamic State responsible for the attack, the group may have been in Bangladesh. The targeting of people in a doing so either under the direction or ideological The attack marks a major escalation in a campaign restaurant appeared more in line with Jamaat-ul-influence of IS. The government has to come up by militants over the past 18 months that had Mujahideen, which has focused its attacks on non-with a strategy to ensure peace in the nation as the targeted mostly individuals advocating a secular or Muslims. Ansar-al-Islam, in contrast, has laid down country faces the risk of an escalating rivalry liberal lifestyle in Muslim-majority nation. strict targeting criteria under which its fighters between al Qaeda and Islamic State, or their local Bangladesh has seen a spate of murders in recent attack people carrying out "anti-Islamic" activities proxies.months claimed by Islamic State and al Qaeda on such as bloggers criticising radical Islam or activists

22 dead in attack on Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka; Islamic State

claims responsibility

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10

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ung San Suu Kyi held landmark talks with The United Wa State Army (UWSA) had stopped Aseveral ethnic armed groups in Rangoon as fighting the government in 1989 in exchange for she attempts reach nationwide ceasefire with control of a remote portion of territory bordering the various ethnic groups fighting the state. Suu China which is believed to be awash with drugs. Kyi met with five leaders from the United However, the group has a 20-25,000-strong Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) in the standing army and are yet to commit to a full

thcommercial capital on July 17 . The UNFC nationwide ceasefire.represents both signatories and non-signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), Last October, eight-armed rebel groups signed a which eight groups agreed to in October last national ceasefire agreement (NCA) with the year. The new government has made it clear that Thein Sein government. Many other groups national reconciliation will be one of their key declined to sign on the ground that process lacked

Peace talks are a step forward but for them to be priorities, as they look to put to an end decades transparency and inclusiveness. Suu Kyi has successful the Aung San Suu Kyi government of civil war. promised a greater level of federal autonomy in a needs to cater to all the demands of the various bid to secure peace, but has yet to spell out how it

th groups and ensure that peace is long lasting Later, on July 26 , a summit held in a Kachin would work.irrespective of the change in government. The town, brought together leaders representing 17 peace talks need to be based on strong ethnic armed groups to search for common According to the NCA, a political dialogue was to amendments in the policy that include tackling ground in working toward a federal system for take place within three months of the signing of

th the concerns of territorial dispute, dealing with the country. Separately, on July 29 , Myanmar's the pact. For the ethnic groups, political or displaced populations and reforms for most heavily armed ethnic group, United Wa constitutional change is crucial to ensuring peace development in war torn regions. State Army (UWSA), held "positive" talks with and stability in the country, after nearly 60 years

the country's de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi. of violence in the ethnic areas.

Aung San Suu Kyi-led talks commence with various insurgent groups active

in the country

11

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thandeel Baloch, Pakistan's first female the National Assembly as early as August 9 . First Qsocial media celebrity, was strangled to introduced and passed in the Senate in March death by her brother in what the police 2015, the bill had failed to gain political consensus described as an ‘honor killing’. Her death and was not approved by the National Assembly, sparked widespread debate across Pakistan over a necessary step for it to become law. The new bill the 'honour killing' law of the country, which seeks to remove a current loophole in Pakistani allows for the killer to be set free if the victim's law that allows families to forgive the family pardons him. perpetrators of honor killings so they can escape

prosecution. Once the new legislation is passed, Public opinion about her death has been perpetrators will not be able to avoid polarised. A section of Pakistani society prosecution, even if they are forgiven by family condemned the murder, others voiced support members. The law aims to reduce the number of community. In addition, previous laws have not for the killing. Honour killing is a significant social 'honour killings' drastically, by acting as a served as a deterrent for the perpetrators who problem in Pakistani society and is on the rise. A deterrent. Religious groups and right-wing claim to be acting in the name of family's recent report from the Human Rights organisations in the country have opposed any 'honour'. More education and public awareness Commission of Pakistan found that 1,096 changes to the law. of women's human rights, coupled with the women were the victims of honour crimes in stringent application of the law on Pakistan's 2015, up from 1,005 in 2014 and 869 in 2013. Although there have been attempts to pass statute, might help in reducing the incidence of Victims include both men and women but stricter laws, these have often met with stiff honour-based murders.female victims far outnumbered male victims. opposition from religious groups. The Pakistan

government is coming under increasing pressure The anti-honour killing bill is due to be presented to take a re-look at the law that seems to have in front of a joint sitting of Pakistan's Senate and caused a major uproar among the religious

Government's move to amend the archaic 'honour killing' law of the

country meets with stiff opposition from religious groups

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wo explosions disrupted a demonstration Shia-Sunni harmony. The Shia Hazara, estimated Tby members of Afghanistan's mainly Shia to make up about 9 per cent of the population, are rdHazara minority in Kabul on July 23 , killing at Afghanistan's third largest minority. Hazaras have

least 80 people and wounding more than 230, in faced prosecution in Afghanistan and Pakistan; in a suicide attack claimed by Islamic State. The Afghanistan the Taliban have for years mounted demonstrators had been demanding that a attack on the community. However, the Taliban planned 500 kV transmission line from have condemned this attack, and denied their Turkmenistan to Kabul be rerouted through two involvement. The Taliban has been fighting the provinces with large Hazara populations. The growth of IS in Afghanistan so as to maintain its attack succeeded despite tight security which domination in the country. Taliban and Islamic saw much of the city center sealed off with State fighters regularly clash in the eastern stacks of shipping containers and other provinces, including Nangarhar.

the Islamic State was killed in a military operation obstacles and helicopters patrolling overhead. thin Nangarhar on July 25 . Saad Emarati, a former Officials in Afghanistan's main intelligence Meanwhile, at the end of July, U.S. military

Taliban commander, was one of the founders of agency, the National Directorate for Security announced that it will adding troops in eastern the IS group's Afghanistan-Pakistan branch(NDS), said the attack was planned by Abu Ali, an Afghanistan for an offensive against Islamic State;

IS militant based in Achin district in Nangarhar. a move intended to roll back the group's gains in IS has shown its domination in the region through The jihadist terrorist group has been stepping up areas near the Pakistan border. The arrival of attacks like the Kabul one and holding territory in attacks worldwide and most recently in additional forces marks another escalation in a the eastern province, which is a concern for the Afghanistan, while losing territory in its self- nearly 15-year conflict in Afghanistan, which was Afghan government trying to restore stability. The proclaimed caliphate of Iraq and Syria. primarily to deal with the Taliban insurgency. In last thing the government needs now is a civil war addition, following the Kabul attack, the Afghan IS may take advantage of such a situation to The bombings, apparently aimed at sowing forces stepped up its operations in the eastern further its roots in the Afghan society to establish sectarian discord in a country well known for province of Nangarhar. A key commander with themselves and recruit or radicalize more people.

Islamic State claims an attack on a Hazara rally in Kabul

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ri Lanka has been hit with a dengue epidemic Government authorities have heightened Safter the country’s heavy unseasonal rains eradication and awareness programs in order to and above-average temperatures. Nearly control the epidemic. Members of the armed 29,000 persons have been affected by dengue forces have been tasked with clean-up operations these past six months and forty deaths and public officials in high-risk areas in Colombo recorded. Of the 29,000 infections reported so have warned of strict action, including legal cases, far, 7,400 have been from Colombo. In against those who permit standing water on their comparison 29,000 cases were reported for the property, which allows mosquitoes to breed. whole of 2015. The capital Colombo and the Over five days in late June, over 36,000 people in surrounding Western Province have been the Colombo alone were warned to clean up their hardest hit areas, with close to 50 percent of the properties. Of 67,055 properties inspected in the infections reported from the province, which is city during that period, 16,565 were found to be also the country's most densely populated area. high-risk areas for mosquito breeding.

Experts have said that changing rain patterns Experts have stressed the importance of studying contribute to extend the period of dengue virus the weather change pattern on the Island nation transmission due to more (mosquito) breeding. in order to control the epidemic and to study Temperature also plays a pivotal role by previous outbreaks to better understand the contributing to high level of (mosquito) activity. spread of dengue in the country.These collectively contribute to extended periods of transmission and outbreaks.

Dengue epidemic in the country; nearly 30,000 people affected since

the start of the year

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epal has been in a political crisis since victims of the 2015 earthquake, but also NSeptember when a Constituent Assembly continued to ignore Madhesi grievances. Instead approved a new constitution amid a political of focusing on governance, he stirred the Nepali row with minority Madhesis over the creation nationalist cauldron to cling to power. In addition, of federal states. This month, the country was Oli also fuelled anti-India sentiments and plunged into another political crisis Prime overplayed the China card, which resulted in a Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after the significant souring of India-Nepal relations. While Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist- Centre) many in India expect his exit to improve relations, (CPN) decided to withdraw its support. Oli the scenario is hard to predict as CPN(MC) leader tendered his resignation after two key ruling Pushpa Kumar Dahal (Prachanda) is expected to alliance partners - Madhesi People's Rights helm the new government, who is also affected by the floods and landslides triggered by Forum-Democratic and Rastriya Prajatantra considered pro-China. the monsoon rains. The Nepal Army raced to help Party decided to support the no-confidence evacuate hundreds more from flooded villages as motion tabled against him by the opposition Meanwhile, floods and landslides have left 64 the waters continue to rise after swollen rivers Nepali Congress (NC) and supported by alliance people dead after heavy and steady monsoon breached their banks and inundated many partners CPN-Maoist Centre. The resignation rains hit Nepal. Thousands of others have been homes. Floods and landslides are common in has opened the door for the formation of a new forced to leave their homes. Many houses and Nepal during the southwesterly monsoon season government under the leadership of CPN bridges have been swept away in several parts of which runs from June to September, leaving (Maoist Centre) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal the country as the torrential downpours caused hundreds dead every year. The situation is with the support of the Nepali Congress and rivers to burst their banks. At least 36 people have particularly desperate this year because millions Madhes-based parties under the Samyukta died in the Pyuthan district in western Nepal, the of Nepalis are still living in tents or makeshift huts L o k t a n t r i k M a d h e s i M o r c h a . worst affected district. In Butwal, flooding put after the devastating earthquakes that killed

more than 6,000 people at risk. Pyuthan and nearly 9,000 people in April 2015.Oli, not only failed to properly rehabilitate Butwal are among 14 of Nepal's 75 districts

PM Oli resigns after Maoist party of Prachanda withdraws support

severe landslides across the country leaves over 60 dead

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fforts by the Maldivian opposition to hold the prevailing law and order situation of the Erallies in Maldives have been met with country and attention of international agencies staunch opposition by the incumbent such as Amnesty International and UN to the government. The newly formed Maldives violation of human rights and curtailment of United Opposition (MUO) went ahead with f r e e d o m o f s p e e c h i n M a l d i v e s .

stplans though to hold its first rally, on July 21 , despite a sudden U-turn by the government on its decision to grant a venue for the rally. The The newly formed opposition alliance had said government's ground for rejection was that it that it will seek to oust incumbent president would not allow anyone to undermine the peace Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom and form an and stability of the country. interim government to ensure free and fair

elections scheduled in 2018. The Maldives United parties involved, private news organizations and Since the brutal crackdown of the now famously Opposition brings together the Maldivian citizens all posted to social media. known 'Black Friday' rally held by the opposition Democratic Party, the Adhaalath Party, two of party MDP in November 2015, which saw arrests president Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom's Police also arrested two foreign journalists, of top opposition leaders and brutal beatings of former deputies and his former defence minister. associated with Al Jazeera, while covering the unarmed protesters by policemen has since Five rival opposition groups had announced a Maldives United Opposition (MUO) rally. The then seen more arrests and incrimination of united front to remove president Yameen from arrests come a day after the Chief Operating opposition leaders. The police have since office. Mohamed Nasheed, the country's first Officer of Rajje TV, Hussain Fiyaz, and journalist at blocked the opposition's anti-corruption walks democratically elected leader, is advisor to MUO. Sun Online, Ahmed Azif, were arrested near the as well as marches by the media and civil society. MUO's first rally attracted thousands of people Islamic Center along with four others, on Several journalists have also been arrested for despite the government refusing to grant a venue Maldives' Independence Day. holding a rally for peace and freedom in the for the opposition. The rally was ignored by many country. This has brought under the spotlight government media outlets, but the political

Government continues crackdown on the Friday rallies by opposition

groups

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July Events & Incidents

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- Chhattisgarh: Five Maoist cadres were arrested from separate places in Bastar region

– Chhattisgarh: Four Maoist cadres were arrested during search operations carried out by SF personnel in several parts of Kondagaon district

– Jharkhand: A Maoist cadre was killed during an encounter with the police in Simdega district

– Jharkhand: Maoist cadres killed two civilians, accusing them of being police informers, in Giridih district

– Chhattisgarh: An Assistance Constable was abducted by the Maoist cadres in Sukma district

– Chhattisgarh: Five Maoists urrendered before the CRPF personnel in Kondagaon district

– Chhattisgarh: Chhattisgarh Police demolished a Maoist camp and seized pipe bombs and other explosives after a fierce gunfight with the Maoists in Bijapur district

- Jharkhand: Suspected Maoist cadres killed a person on the suspicion of being a JJMP supporter in Reheldag village under Bishunpur Police Station limits in Gumla district

– Odisha: Suspected Maoists destroyed a forest camp at Jhoti Sahi near Barthilinga in Nayagarh district

– Odisha: Five villagers, including three women were reportedly killed in an exchange of fire between police and the cadres of the Maoist at Malapanga forest in Kurtamagarh in Kandhamal district

– Telangana: A Maoist cadre surrendered to the police in Warangal district – Chhattisgarh: Four suspected cadres of the Maoist were killed in an encounter

with the police in Bijapur district


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- Jharkhand: A three-hour gun battle took place between two LWE groups - TPC and JJMP, at Manchi village in Lohardaga district, where the groups are engaged in an ongoing struggle for supremacy

– Jharkhand: A CoBRA trooper died after being injured in a fierce encounter between SFs and the Maoist cadres under Baresan Police Station area of Latehar district

– Chhattisgarh: Chhattisgarh Police claimed to have killed more than two Maoist cadres in an encounter on the bank of the Indravati River in Bastar district

– Bihar: Jamui district Police claimed to have busted a Maoist den and recovered a huge cache of arms in an operation by SF personnel, close to the Jharkhand border.

– Chhattisgarh: Several BJP local body representatives and workers have resigned in Bijapur district of BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh in the recent past allegedly due to threats and pressure from Maoists

– Jharkhand: A dreaded Maoist cadre, who carried a reward of INR 2.5 million on his head announced by the Jharkhand Government, surrendered with a .315 rifle before DGP D.K. Pandey at the State Police Headquarters in Ranchi district, drawing an end to all speculations that had been doing the rounds about his hush-hush surrender since last week.

– Andhra Pradesh: East Godavari district Police averted a major disaster by defusing three landmines planted by the Maoist cadres near Yedugurrallapalli village.

– Andhra Pradesh: Two members of the Korukonda 'area committee' of the Maoist along with a 'deputy commander' of the area committee's militia and six-armed militia members of the Galikonda 'area committee' have surrendered before Visakhapatnam district SP

– Chhattisgarh: At least four Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with SF personnel in the forests of Bijapur district. - Tamil Nadu- Maoist 'central committee' has given a call for celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Naxalbari armed uprising, centenary of the

Russian revolution and the bicentenary of the birth of Karl Marx. – Bihar: At least 10 CRPF Commandos - belonging to the CoBRA battalion - were killed and five others injured in a Maoist orchestrated IED blast in the

forests of Aurangabad district



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– Odisha: Eleven Maoist 'supporters' including two women surrendered before the Police at Mathili Police Station in Malkangiri district – Bihar: Maoists owned up responsibility for the Aurangabad blast and encounter on July 18 at Dumaria Nala forest area in Aurangabad district, in

which 10 CRPF personnel and three Maoists were killed. – Jharkhand: Two persons were arrested with a truck-load of explosives from Kathikund area of Koderma district – Bihar: Maoist cadres raided a solar power plant site and torched 14 vehicles including tractors and JCB machines in Aurangabad district – Tamil Nadu: Three alleged Maoist cadres were arrested by the Q-branch Police of Tamil Nadu from Karur and Kancheepuram districts – Telangana: Maoist has put up wall posters at Laxmi Colony in Charla mandal headquarters in Khammam district urging people to observe "martyr's

week" from July 28th to August 3rd – Bihar: Police arrested two Maoists - Nagendra Yadav and Upendra - in connection with the July 18 Aurangabad encounter – Chhattisgarh: Two cadres of the Maoist were killed in a gun-battle with SFs in Sukma district – Jharkhand: Two PLFI cadres were arrested from Rania block in Khunti district – Chhattisgarh: A Policeman who was abducted by the Maoist cadres on July 4th in Sukma district was released on July 24th. – Chhattisgarh: As many as 12 Naxals, including two women, today surrendered in Chhattisgarh's insurgency-hit Bastar district citing disappointment

with the “empty” ideology of the Maoists – Maharashtra: A woman naxal cadre was killed in an encounter in the Gatta area of Pendhri in Gadchiroli – Chhattisgarh/ Orissa/ Jharkhand: Thirteen new armed police battalions, including one comprising mostly tribals from the worst Maoist-hit districts,

will be raised by the government to tackle the Maoists

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thn a bid to bolster the fight against Maoists in Chhattisgarh, the Central Government, on July 11 , approved the formation of a unique 'Bastariya Battalion' in Ithe CRPF, comprised solely of men and women from local tribes. A special recruitment drive was expected to start in four districts of the region, namely Sukma, Dantewada, Narayanpur, and Bijapur with an aim to find 744 recruits. The authorities are planning to deploy the new battalion for a period of five years. According to officials, having local tribes in the forces would result in an increased efficiency in the operations against Maoists as the youth know the forest terrain better than the troops presently posted there. Such troops could prove to be assets in jungle warfare, unarmed combat, and smart weapons firing. More importantly, the authorities are hopeful that the move could dull the appeal of Maoists among the disaffected, and unemployed youth of the Maoist-affected state.

In addition, the Central Government also has plans to redraw the 'Red Corridor', in order to reduce the number of Maoist-affected districts in the region. The government is looking to reduce the number of Maoist-affected districts by about a fifth by removing around 20 of the 106 Maoist-affected districts that are part of the 'Red Corridor'. This exercise, under way now for two years, is being done for the first time since 2006; the year when the Maoist-affected districts were identified and graded based on their violence profile. The names of the districts that are to be taken off and the corresponding reasons for their removal have reportedly been communicated to the states, and a response is awaited. The considerations on which the government has examined the districts with Left Wing Extremism (LWE) features are – violence profile of the district, an assessment of the kind of logistical and other support provided to armed Maoist cadres by their sympathisers and over ground workers, and the kind of positive changes brought about by development work that these districts have seen.

The 106 districts that span 10 States – Bihar, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Telangana, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – are described as affected by LWE and constitute the 'Red Corridor.' Of these, 44 districts are said to be the worst affected. The year 2015 saw the lowest Maoist violence in six years with 1,088 incidents and 226 deaths being reported as compared to 2,213 incidents, in which as many as 1,005 people lost their lives in 2010. This year, though the number of Maoist-related incidents has seen a spike, with 605 incidents and 161 deaths reported till June 30th, compared to the 592 incidents and 120 deaths during the same period last year. The reduction in the number of districts would be significant step, as it would signal a positive development in the government's anti-Maoist operations.

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Twin suicide bomb attacks in Kabul on a Hazara rally kills 80 and injures 230 A key commander with the Islamic State, Saad Emarati, was killed in a military operation in Nangarhar province Five U.S. Special Operations troops, fighting alongside their Afghan counterparts, were wounded while battling Islamic State militants in

Afghanistan's Nangahar province Afghanistan government complained to Pakistani officials that former Lashka-e-Taiba chief

Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) conducted in Lahore and arrested two terrorists. Both the suspects reportedly belonged to Islamic State.

Media reports that 21 missing people from Kerala suspected to have joined IS National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested two key members of the Hyderabad IS module which they had unearthed last month An Islamic State suspect was arrested from Thane in a joint operation conducted by Kerala Police and Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) arrested an engineer from Parbhani (Maharashtra) with one kg of improvised explosive device (IED) and

other explosive articles Anti-terror squad arrested a passenger who launched into IS speech forcing Dubai flight to make an emergency landing Growing response to IS in Pune worrisome, stated the Intelligence agencies

28 killed, including 18 foreigners, in armed siege assault at a Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka A Hindu priest was stabbed and critically injured by unidentified assailants in Sakthira district Blast near mosque in Kishoreganj district kills three, injures others

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – July 2016

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Events AnalysisIn another development, in early July around 20 people, including women and children, were reported as missing for a month from North Five persons were arrested by the National The NIA has claimed that the five suspected IS Kerala - Kasargode and Palakkad districts. They Investigation Agency (NIA) from Hyderabad on operatives arrested in Hyderabad reportedly had

th are suspected to have joined IS after travelling to monetary transactions with alleged handlers in June 29 and were remanded to police custody st West Asia. There have been conflicting reports the Middle East on several occasions through by the court on July 1 . They were charged with

regarding the route taken by them to reach their 'hawala' and that they had also pledged their being involved in a terror module suspected to “final destination” as some sources and inputs allegiance to the IS. Keeping with the global trend be linked to the Islamic State (IS) and conspiring have suggested that they had fallen off the grid of use of highly encrypted means of online to carry out attacks at multiple spots in the city, after travelling to Iran, while other reports communication among the IS supporters, the including temples, markers, malls, and a police claimed that they had travelled through Sri Lanka. arrested suspects from Hyderabad were also station. Subsequently, the NIA raided the houses

using a sophisticated encrypted email app to of the arrested IS suspects and various other th

Furthermore, on July 5 , NIA started examining evade government surveillance on their locations in Hyderabad and recovered bullets the speeches of Zakir Naik, the Mumbai based communications. One of the suspects revealed and electronic gadgets – 17 live rounds of 9mm founder of Islamic Research Foundation (IRF), that every exchange of information with their pistol, two computers and two scanners were after it was revealed that one of the militants in handler regarding terror logistics and weapons seized during the searches in Talab Katta and

stth the July 1 Dhaka attack was influenced by his deliveries was routed through Tutanota, an Barkas. On July 12 , NIA officials arrested two

speeches. Additionally, the Mumbai Police also innovative German-designed app that offers end-more youths on the charge of aiding and stinitiated an inquiry against Zakir Naik. On July 21 , to-end encrypted email to its users. Kerala has abetting the five suspects arrested earlier (on

Kerala Police arrested a public relation manager slowly emerged as a breeding base for June 29) in connection with IS' module from with IRF from Navi Mumbai for allegedly radicalisation and extremism; the most wanted Quba colony of Bandlaguda and Darogh Lane of radicalising youth and recruiting them to join IS. among the Islamic terror operatives from the Moghalpura in Hyderabad City.

state is Mohammed Sabir alias K.P. Sabir alias

Islamic State Report for India

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Ayub, who reportedly controls the terror-linked centre listed on JuD website. An investigation into Fake Indian Currency Note (FICN) cartel, the foreign funding of Zakir Naik's NGO IRF, which believed to be operating from Peshawar in was registered under Foreign Contribution Pakistan. Restriction Act (FCRA), has revealed that most of

the organisation's funding from foreign funds As was the case with the Hyderabad suspects, came from the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and those missing from Kerala are well educated, a few other Middle East countries. The agencies including medical students and engineering have since been probing whether the funds are graduates. Thus, once again reiterating the being sourced from any radical groups.trend that contrary to earlier notions, radicalisation and religious indoctrination are no longer the monopoly of only those perceived as marginalised and economically deprived. The urban socio-economic backgrounds (including access to higher education) of the armed attackers who laid siege to the eatery in Dhaka on July 1st add further evidence to this growing trend.

Zakir Naik's Islamic Research Foundation (IRF) was listed as religious learning resource on JuD website. Zakir Naik's IRF is the only South Asian

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Islamic State report for Afghanistan and Bangladesh

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Events

Analysis

two policemen were also killed. A standoff of series of brutal attacks by machete wielding nearly 12 hours with security forces ended when terrorists, against secularists, Buddhists, Hindus, up to 100 commandos stormed the building after foreign nationals and other minorities. Several of More than 80 people were killed and another attempts at negotiations failed. Islamic State had these attacks have been claimed by IS, but the 231 were wounded when suicide bombers claimed responsibility for this attack, and its government continues to insist that these attacks triggered two explosions at a rally organized by media arm, Amaq, had also released photos of were carried out by local groups who were hundreds of Shi'ite ethnic Hazara minority on

rd five of the alleged attackers. politically motivated, and not by IS.July 23 in Kabul. IS immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. The Afghan security

However, despite the denial of both the Afghan forces have been engaged in military operations and Bangladeshi authorities, these attacks and IS' and crackdowns against the IS fighters in the subsequent claim of responsibility for these country for months. Most recently, at least 13 The claims made by President Ghani about having

th attacks are a testimony to IS' growing ambitions Islamic State (IS) were killed on July 11 when driven out the IS fighters from Afghanistan, have and foothold in South Asia.Afghan Air Force launched airstrikes that been dispelled completely after what was one of

targeted militant hideouts in the country's the worst attacks in Kabul in the last 15 years. eastern province of Nangarhar. Contrary to his claims, according to a US

Congressional Research Service report, Islamic In an equally unprecedented act of terror, seven State, which includes disaffected Taliban fighters gunmen stormed the upmarket restaurant in from Pakistan and Afghanistan, is now believed to Dhaka's diplomatic area of Gulshan, late on July have as many as 3,000 fighters in its ranks in

st1 , and killed their mostly non-Muslim hostages, Afghanistan. including nine Italians, seven Japanese, one US and one Indian national. Two Bangladeshis and Since 2015, Bangladesh has been plagued by a

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ecent incidents of ATM-related frauds have Odisha: The main accused in a gang that made Rhighlighted the need for greater awareness money by cheating gullible people at ATMs in rdand caution among the customers, as their Odisha, was arrested by the police on June 23 .

negligence is something the fraudsters look to According to the police, he learnt the tricks of bank on. drawing money from ATMs using passwords of

gullible victims by repeatedly watching videos of such crimes on YouTube. He and his six-member gang used to target old Maharashtra: A 64-year old man was duped of men and women at ATM kiosks. Police said that Rs 5000 by an unidentified suspect on the their modus operandi involved putting a few pretext of helping him withdraw cash from an drops of adhesive under the 'cancel' button to ATM machine in Mukundwadi area of

th keep the machine active; then the criminals Aurangabad, on June 26 . In a complaint lodged would stand there in such a position from where by the victim, he said that he was facing some they could steal a glance of the customer's PIN, or problem while withdrawing money from the would withdraw money by using the customer's would make it out by just remembering the hand ATM, when a man offered to help him withdraw PIN. movement of the customers. Once the victim the money. Falling prey to the trap, the elderly The gang would also consciously only target ATM inserted the card and pressed the enter button, at man handed over his ATM card and PIN to the kiosks at secluded areas, where very few people the ATM machine failed to function properly due accused, who replaced the same with another were around. The accused had been committing to the activated cancel button. After a few card and returned it stating that there is an issue similar crimes since 2011 and were involved in a unsuccessful attempts, the gang members would with the ATM. A little later, the elderly man number of such cases in the state's coastal persuade the customers to leave the kiosk on the received a message alert, informing that Rs 5000 districts, including Khurda, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, plea that the ATM was not functional. Later, they had been withdrawn from his account. Puri, Balasore and Dhenkanal.

Incidents

Increase In ATM frauds due to lack of customer awareness

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25India Monthly Risk Forecast - 2016 August

The author is an Analyst (Information Services) at MitKat Advisory Services, and is an alumnus of King's College London. His areas of interest include South Asian security and conflict issues.

-Uday Deshwal

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Analysis the ATM machine. blocked by the customer.ŸThe fraudster then withdraws the cash from the ŸFraudsters are known to keep several dummy There has been a rise in the number of banking

customer's account, leaving the customer cards of various banks and depending upon the frauds related to ATM transactions as fraudulent unaware of the fraud till he checks the message card used by the customer for the transaction, individuals and groups are employing relatively from the bank. they pull out a similar card and hand it over to new techniques to rob customers of their

the customer. Since most customers don't check money. As is evident from the stated recent Card Swapping: if the returned card is theirs or not, the instances of ATM frauds, keypad jamming and ŸWhen a customer vis its a merchant fraudsters are successful in cheating the card swapping are two of the more prevalent

establishment (a restaurant, petrol station, etc.) customer.forms of fraud. or an ATM kiosks and uses his/her debit card for Keypad Jamming: transaction, the attendant (in case of a Card Skimming: ŸThe defrauder looks to jam the 'enter' and/or merchant establishment) or a by-stander (in ŸA card skimming device is planted in the card 'cancel' buttons on the machine by applying case of an ATM kiosk) notes down the ATM PIN slot of the ATM machine, which can then read glue or by inserting a pin or blade at the edge of when it is keyed-in by the customer. Later, while the magnetic tape information of the card. the button. returning the card (merchant establishment)or ŸWith the copied magnetic information, the ŸSo when the customer tries to press the offering help (ATM kiosk) to the customer, the defrauder can reproduce a duplicate card to be 'enter/ok' button after entering his ATM PIN, fraudster swaps the customer's card with a used later to withdraw cash. the key does not function and the customer dummy card that is identical to the customer's ŸWhile such frauds were more common in can't proceed with his transaction. card. Southeast Asian countries such as China, ŸAt this juncture the customer thinks that the

ŸSince the customer is unaware of the swapping, Philippines, Taiwan and Indonesia among machine is not working and tries to cancel the he secures the dummy card whereas the others, such incidents have also been reported transaction, which also does not go through as fraudster gets both the card and the PIN which in India.that button is also jammed. Thinking that the he then uses to withdraw cash till the card is transaction is cancelled, the customer leaves

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Recommendations ŸBeware of suspicious movements of people around the ATM or strangers trying to engage you in conversation.

BanksŸLook for extra devices attached to the ATMs that

ŸAll ATMs need to have guards posted 24x7 in may be put to capture your data.

addition to CCTV surveillance. ŸAfter completion of transaction ensure that

ŸMore than one person must not be allowed in welcome screen is displayed on ATM screen.

the ATM, at any given point. ŸEnsure your current mobile number is

ŸIf there are two ATMs in one kiosk, distance of registered with the bank so that you can get

at least two feet and a partition must separate alerts for all your transactions.

them. ŸTo prevent fraud through card swapping, check

ŸInstallation of CCTV cameras, hooters and if the card given to you by the merchant after

intrusion detection devices can prevent crime.completion of the transaction is your card.

ŸAll CCTV cameras must be on backup power ŸDo not allow the card to go out of your sight

supply.when you are making a payment.

ŸCustomer awareness campaigns run by banks must aim to educate customers regarding the various ATM frauds.

CustomersŸCustomers should avoid taking help of

strangers in ATM booths, and not allow any person to enter the kiosk during the transaction.

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