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India: Adapting Nuclear in
Post COP-21 Era
Shah Nawaz Ahmad
Senior Adviser
India, Middle East and South-East Asia
SETA 2016
Bangkok, Thailand March 24, 2016
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Electricity is an Aspirational
requirement
No matter what the world situation
•Natural Disasters
•War & politics
•Other Man-made Disasters
•Economic Melt-down
The consumption of electricity has kept growing
&
Business has risen to meet this demand
2
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
World Energy Outlook
Accelerating rise in world
electricity consumption
3
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 4
Source: International Energy Agency
IEA 2°C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide
the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Decarbonizing electricity generation
vital by year 2100
5
Several sources incl. IPCC: 2014
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title 6
Other Industries
Average 400,000 tons of ash produced from a coal-fired plant of 1000MWe capacity
As, Hg, Cr, Cd
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Time for an effective safety paradigm
Paul Scherrer Institut 1998:
considering 1943 accidents with more than 5 fatalities The alternatives
to nuclear are far
more dangerous
– even including
accidents
Chiba refinery fire
Smog in Beijing
7
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
In a Nut-shell
•Nuclear power plants are expensive to build but relatively cheap to run.
•In many places, nuclear energy is competitive with fossil fuels as a means of electricity generation.
•Waste disposal and decommissioning costs are included in the operating costs of nuclear power plants.
•If the social, health and environmental costs of fossil fuels are also taken into account, the economics of nuclear power are outstanding.
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
% Fuel Cost
78% 86% 31% 91%
Fuel cost is a key advantage
10
I. Nuclear’s Competitive Advantage
Sources: NEI, DOE 1 Overnight capital cost (EPC plus owners’ costs excluding financing, escalation due to increased material and labor costs, and inflation)
2.55 2.93 0.75
20.37
0.73 0.47
1.65
2.11
0
5
10
15
20
25
Coal Gas Nuclear Petroleum
20
12
cen
ts p
er k
ilow
att-
ho
ur
O&M Costs
Fuel Costs
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Stockpiling for Security of Supply
•Any country or power utility may see the need to stockpile reserves of fuel sufficient to endure a major political upheaval in a source country.
•If this is a large reserve supply there are obvious constraints in both paying for it and storing it securely.
•Most kinds of coal can be stored, but with over 3 million tonnes required annually for a 1000 MWe power plant, that storage has space, dust and visual implications.
•Natural gas can be stored underground, but capacity in most countries is not great – a few months’ supply at best.
•Uranium can very readily be stored long-term, and with only about 200 tonnes of natural uranium, or less than 30 tonnes of fabricated fuel, required per year for a 1000 MWe power plant, the advantage is obvious.
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Nuclear is an important part of the
low carbon solution already
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brazil Sweden Switzerland France Ontario(Canada)
Coal
Gas
Other
Large Hydro
Renewables
Nuclear
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Nuclear makes quick, lasting
decarbonisation possible
13
Source: Geoff Russell – nuclear has scaled far more rapidly than renewables
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title 14
Highest level of construction in last
twenty five years: 66 reactors worldwide
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
4
4
6
5
8 24
Argentina
Brazil
Finland
Belarus
France
Japan
Pakistan
Slovakia
Chinese Taipei South Korea
UAE
USA
India
Russia China
3
China 2015: 8 reactors began to deliver electricity 6 new construction starts
Source IAEA January 2016
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
To deliver 1000 GW new nuclear
capacity to 2050
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Connection Rate
31
10
5
25
33
Historic connection rate in the mid of 1980s was 31 GW per year.
Present connection rate is at 5 GW per year.
Period Connection rate Added capacity
GW per year GW
2016-2020 10 50
2021-2025 25 125
2026-2050 33 825
__________________________________
Total new nuclear capacity 1000 GW
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Reactor State Type MWe net (each) Commercial
operation Safeguards status*
Tarapur 1&2 Maharashtra GE BWR 150 1969 Item-specific, Oct
2009
Kaiga 1&2 Karnataka PHWR 202 1999, 2000 nil
Kaiga 3&4 Karnataka PHWR 202 2007, 2012 nil
Kakrapar 1&2 Gujarat PHWR 202 1993, 1995 December 2010 under
new agreement
Madras 1&2 (MAPS) Tamil Nadu PHWR 202 1984, 1986 nil
Narora 1&2 Uttar Pradesh PHWR 202 1991, 1992 From Jan 2015 under
new agreement
Rajasthan 1&2 Rajasthan Candu PHWR 90, 187 1973, 1981 Item-specific, Oct
2009
Rajasthan 3&4 Rajasthan PHWR 202 1999, 2000 March 2010 under
new agreement
Rajasthan 5&6 Rajasthan PHWR 202 Feb & April 2010 Oct 2009 under new
agreement
Tarapur 3&4 Maharashtra PHWR 490 2006, 2005 nil
Kudankulam 1 Tamil Nadu PWR (VVER) 917 December 2014 Item-specific, Oct
2009
Total (21)
[13 + 8]
5302
MWe
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Reactor Type MWe gross, net
(each) Project control
Construction
start
Commercial
operation due
Safeguards
status
Kudankulam 2 PWR (VVER) 1000, 917 NPCIL July 2002 2016 item-specific,
Oct 2009
Kalpakkam
PFBR FBR 500, 470 Bhavini Oct 2004
criticality April
2016? nil
Kakrapar 3 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Nov 2010 2015?
Kakrapar 4 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL March 2011 Dec 2015?
Rajasthan 7 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL July 2011 June 2016?
Rajasthan 8 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Sept 2011 Dec 2016?
Total (6) 4300 MWe
gross
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Reactor State Type MWe gross
(each) Project control
Start
construction Start operation
Kudankulam 3 Tamil Nadu AES-92 1050 NPCIL May 2017 2022
Kudankulam 4 AES-92 1050 NPCIL 2017? 2023
Gorakhpur 1
Haryana
(Fatehabad
district)
PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2021
Gorakhpur 2 PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2022
Chutka 1 Madhya Pradesh
(Mandla) PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2024
Chutka 2 PHWR 700 NPCIL 2016? 2025
Bhimpur 1&2 Madhya Pradesh PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL 2016?
Mahi Banswara
1&2 Rajasthan PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL by 2017
Kaiga 5&6 Karnataka PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL by 2017
Kudankulam
5&6 Tamil Nadu AES 92 x 2 1050 NPCIL ?
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Kalpakkam
2&3 Tamil Nadu FBR x 2 600 Bhavini 2017?
Jaitapur
1&2
Ratnagiri,
Maharashtra EPR x 2 1700 NPCIL 2018?
delayed due
to liability
Kovvada
1&2
Srikakulam,
Andhra
Pradesh
ESBWR x 2 1600 NPCIL 2018? delayed due
to liability
Mithi Virdi
1&2
Bhavnagar,
Gujarat AP1000 x 2 1250 NPCIL 2018?
delayed due
to liability
"Haripur
1&2"
another site
West Bengal
(but likely
relocated,
maybe to
Orissa)
AES-2006? 1200 NPCIL
Subtotal
planned
(April 2006
in principle
approval)
24 units 23,900
MWe
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Kudankulam
7&8 Tamil Nadu
AES 92 or
AES-2006 1050-1200 NPCIL
"Kudankula
m 9-12"
Andhra
Pradesh
AES-92 or
AES-2006 1050-1200 NPCIL
Gorakhpur
3&4
Haryana
(Fatehabad
district)
PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL 2019
Rajouli,
Nawada 1-2 Bihar PHWR x 2 700 NPCIL
? PWR x 2 1000 NPCIL/NTPC
Jaitapur 3&4 Ratnagiri,
Maharashtra PWR – EPR 1700 NPCIL
? ? FBR x 4 500 Bhavini
? AHWR 300 NPCIL 2016-17 2022
Jaitapur 5&6 Ratnagiri,
Maharashtra PWR – EPR 1700 NPCIL
Markandi
(Pati
Sonapur)
Orissa PWR 6000
MWe NPCIL
Mithi Virdi
3&4
Bhavnagar,
Gujarat 2 x AP1000 1250 NPCIL
Kovvada 3&4
Srikakulam,
Andhra
Pradesh
2 x ESBWR 1600 NPCIL
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Nizampatna
m 1-6
Guntur,
Andhra
Pradesh
6x? 1400 NPCIL
"Haripur
3&4"
another site
West Bengal
or Orissa AES-2006? 1200 NPCIL 2022-23
Pulivendula
Kadapa,
Andhra
Pradesh
PWR?
PHWR? 1000? 700?
NPCIL 51%,
AP Genco
49%
Chutka 3&4 Madhya
Pradesh PHWR x 2 700
BHEL-
NPCIL-GE?
Mithi Virdi
5&6
Bhavnagar,
Gujarat AP1000 x 2 1250 NPCIL 2023-24
Kovvada
5&6
Srikakulam,
Andhra
Pradesh
ESBWR x 2 1600 NPCIL
Subtotal
proposed approx 35
38,000
MWe
approx
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Presentation Title
Name, Job Title Current Indian Energy Resources
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
The Nuclear Fuel Cycle is not just
for power production
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title 25
“History” of Waste
“ The earth is the aggregate of fusion product” Unstable fusion products undergo decay process to stable elements Evidence: K-40, Th-232, U-235 The earth is the “radioactive waste” from the fusion power plant in the universe But it is classified as “exempt radioactive waste”
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title 26
Oklo- Gabon – Natural reactor
500 000 years of ‘operation’ 5 tons of fission products 1.5 tons of Pu All radionuclides found in HLW
Presentation Title
Name, Job Title
Thank you very much
for your attention
Contact: [email protected] [email protected]
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