index of industrial production november … nov 2012.pdfthe index of industrial production (iip)...

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OVERVIEW

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 0.1% in November 2012 (refer Chart 1 and Table 1) as compared to the 6.0% expansion in November 2011. Unsurprisingly, IIP growth declined sharply relative to the 8.3% expansion in October 2012, reflecting the shift in the festive calendar in 2012 and the associated fewer working days in November 2012 relative to November 2011. All the use-based categories recorded a deterioration in growth in November 2012 relative to October 2012. Nevertheless, the pace of de-growth of the IIP in November 2012 is narrower than our expectations of a 3.3% contraction. Industrial growth in November 2012 was dampened by the de-growth in capital goods (7.7%) and intermediate goods (1.1%) while basic goods (1.7%) and consumer goods (1.0%) displayed a sub-2% growth in the same month (refer Chart 3). Given the variation in the base effect, average growth for October-November 2012 provides a better gauge of industrial trends in our view as compared to a separate assessment of the growth rates for these two months (refer Chart 9). The pace of growth of consumer goods improved to 7.1% in October-November 2012 from 6.4% in the same months in 2011, which partly reflects a build-up of inventory by producers to meet the festive season demand. However, in our view, consumer sentiments have not undergone a secular improvement, with data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) indicating a 1% contraction in passenger vehicles output in December 2012. Reflecting the base effect, the de-growth of capital goods eased to 0.6% October-November 2012 from 16.3% in the same months in 2011, even as industrial activity remained muted. Similarly, intermediate goods displayed a turnaround in October-November 2012 relative to the same months in 2011 (to 4.0% from -3.6%). In contrast, the growth of basic goods declined to 2.9% in October-November 2012 from 3.8% in October-November 2011. In terms of the sectoral classification, IIP growth was dampened by the 5.5% contraction in mining & quarrying output in November 2012, reflecting the de-growth in coal (4.4%) and natural gas (15.2%). The manufacturing sector expanded by a marginal 0.3% in November 2012 in line with the curtailed working days as compared to the 6.6% growth in November 2011 and 9.8% growth in October 2012 (refer Chart 2). 13 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector (with a weight of 27.4% in the IIP Index) underwent a contraction in November 2012. Electricity generation expanded by 2.4% in November 2012, sharply lower than the 14.6% growth recorded in November 2011. This reflects the moderation in growth of thermal electricity generation to 5.6% in November 2012 from 13.9% in November 2011 according to data released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). The improvement in industrial expansion to 4.0% in October-November 2012 from 0.4% in October-November 2011 and 0.1% in the first half of the fiscal year is encouraging. Nevertheless, with domestic consumption sentiments and investment activity yet to see a substantial improvement, we expect the Central Bank to reduce the Repo rate in the upcoming policy review.

OUTLOOK: The performance of the mining & quarrying sector is expected to continue to languish in the near term given persisting issues related to environmental approvals and bans on mining of iron ore in certain States. The pace of growth of electricity generation is likely to improve in December 2012 relative to the 2.4% growth in November 2012, given the easing of the base effect.

ICRA RESEARCH SERVICES

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOVEMBER 2012

Fewer working days contribute to 0.1% contraction in industrial output in Nov’12 relative to 8.3% growth in Oct’12 January 2013

MAY 2012

Contacts: Aditi Nayar +91 124 4545 385 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


Investment activity remains weak, as indicated by the 21% de-growth of commercial vehicles in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms in December 2012 according to the data released by SIAM and some moderation in y-o-y Bank credit growth to 15% as on December 28, 2012 from 18% at the start of the fiscal year. Nevertheless, an easing of the base effect is expected to result in a sequential improvement in the growth performance of capital goods in December 2012 relative to November 2012. Inventory re-stocking post the festive season is expected to provide a limited boost to consumer goods output. However, an expected contraction in sugar output (with a weight of 1.5% in the IIP Index) following the anticipated decline in cane production is expected to dampen the overall consumer goods output. Additionally, the continued contraction of merchandise exports (1.9%) may dampen the IIP growth in December 2012. Overall, industrial growth in December 2012 is unlikely to show a marked improvement relative to the 2.7% expansion in December 2011. Subsequently, a benign base effect is expected to boost IIP growth in Q4FY13.

Table 1: Trend in IIP Growth

Sectoral Use-Based Classification IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity Basic Capital Intermediate Durables Non-Durables

Weight 100.00% 14.16% 75.53% 10.32% 45.68% 8.83% 15.69% 8.46% 21.35%

Month

Oct-11 -5.0% -5.9% -6.0% 5.6% 1.2% -26.5% -8.4% -0.4% 0.5%

Nov-11 6.0% -3.5% 6.6% 14.6% 6.5% -4.7% 1.3% 10.4% 15.0%

Oct-12 8.3% 0.0% 9.8% 5.5% 4.1% 7.5% 9.3% 16.9% 10.7%

Nov-12 -0.1% -5.5% 0.3% 2.4% 1.7% -7.7% -1.1% 1.9% 0.3%

Apr-Nov FY12 3.9% -2.4% 4.2% 9.5% 6.3% -1.0% -0.6% 5.2% 4.9%

Apr-Nov FY13 1.0% -1.5% 1.0% 4.4% 2.8% -11.1% 1.8% 5.2% 2.5%

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), ICRA Analysis

Chart 1: Year-on-Year Growth in IIP Chart 2: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral Indices

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Mining Manufacturing Electricity


SECTORAL GROWTH Manufacturing: The pace of growth of manufacturing output declined to 0.3% in y-o-y terms in November 2012 from 9.8% in October 2012 led by the base effect, following the turnaround in growth from -6.0% in October 2011 to 6.6% in November 2011. However, the average growth of the manufacturing sector improved sharply to 4.9% in October-November 2012 from 0.1% in October-November 2011. Overall, manufacturing output has expanded by a low 1.0% in April-November 2012 relative to the 4.1% expansion in April- November 2011. The number of sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector displaying a contraction rose to 13 in November 2012 from 10 in September 2012 and four in October 2012 (refer Tables 2 and 3). Additionally, the combined weight of the sub-sectors undergoing contraction rose sharply to 27.4% in November 2012 from 6.3% in October 2012, albeit an improvement as compared to September 2012 (32.0%). Moreover, the pace of de-growth of the sub-sectors undergoing contraction worsened to 12.6% in November 2012 from 6.6% in September 2012 and 3.7% in October 2012. The de-growth of fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment (with a weight of 3.1% in the IIP Index) worsened to 12.6% in November 2012 from 3.8% in September 2012 and 0.5% in October 2012. This partly reflects the 28% contraction in ‘stampings & forgings’ and ‘razor blades’ in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). Tobacco products underwent a contraction for the eighth consecutive month. The pace of de-growth eased slightly to 8.2% in November 2012 from 8.6% in October 2012. The pace of contraction of wood & wood products worsened to 18.9% in November 2012 from 2-6% over the previous four months. Data released by CSO indicates that ‘block board’ contracted by 27% in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). The contraction of medical, precision & optical instruments, watches & clocks eased to 10.9% in November 2012 from 11.9% in October 2012. After recording an expansion in October 2012, office, accounting & computing machinery and publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media displayed sharp contractions of 21.8% and 22.1%, respectively, in November 2012. The latter partly reflects a 23% contraction in newspapers, which is puzzling given the relatively stable demand for this product, and is likely to be on account of data collection issues.

Table 2: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in November 2012

Source: CSO, ICRA Analysis Table 3: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in November 2012

Source: CSO, ICRA Analysis

Sept 2012

Oct 2012

Nov 2012

Number of Sub-Sectors 10 4 13 Weight in the IIP Index 32.0 6.3 27.4 Combined Growth -6.6% -3.7% -12.6% Contribution to Growth -3.4% -0.3% -4.9%

Sub-Sectors Weight Growth in Nov 2012

Comment

Fabricated Metal Products 3.1 -12.6% Contracted in Oct 2012

Tobacco Products 1.6 -8.2%

Wood & Products Of Wood & Cork 1.1 -18.9%

Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments, Watches and Clocks

1.0 -10.9%

Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products 4.3 -7.5% Expanded in Oct 2012

Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-Trailers 4.1 -18.7%

Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. 3.8 -16.0%

Wearing Apparel; Dressing Dyeing of Fur 2.8 -0.3%

Rubber & Plastics Products 2.0 -8.3%

Other Transport Equipment 1.8 -7.3%

Publishing, Printing & Reproduction of Recorded Media

1.1 -22.1%

Paper & Paper Products 1.0 -2.1%

Office, Accounting, Computing Machinery 0.3 -21.8%


Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers contracted by 18.7% in November 2012 (25.4% expansion in November 2011) following the 25.9% expansion in October 2012 (7.2% de-growth in October 2011), reflecting the base effect. Data released by the SIAM indicates a 4% and 28% de-growth in production of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, respectively, in November 2012. Moreover, machinery & equipment contracted by 16.0% in November 2012 as compared to a stagnant output in y-o-y terms in October 2012. Data released by CSO indicates that ‘air conditioners’, ‘tractors’ etc. displayed a considerable contraction in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). The pace of growth of the five sub-sectors making the highest contribution to manufacturing growth declined to 10.5% in November 2012 from to 21.0% in October 2012. Radio, TV & communication equipment & apparatus expanded by 15.3% in November 2012 as compared to 18.6% in October 2012 (refer Table 4). Data released by CSO indicates that ‘telephone instruments’ expanded by 18% in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). Electrical machinery & apparatus expanded by a sharp 25.1% in November 2012 after recording a 38% contraction in November 2011. In particular, ‘aluminium conductors’ and ‘cable, rubber insulated’ displayed a considerable expansion in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). Basic metals, with a considerable 11.3% weight in the IIP Index, expanded by 7.0% in November 2012, a substantial improvement relative to the 1.9% growth in the previous month, benefitting from the healthy growth of items such as ‘CR sheets’, ‘carbon steel’ and ‘stainless/alloy steel’ (refer Annexure B). Food products & beverages, with a 7.3% weight in the IIP Index, expanded by 6.5% in November 2012, significantly slower than the 14.0% growth in October 2012. This is likely to reflect a decline in growth of sugar in November 2012, given the anticipated shortfall in cane production in the current year, following a spike in growth of sugar output in October 2012 on account of early crushing. Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel expanded by 8.5% in November 2012 as compared to 22.3% in October 2012. The latter had benefited from the benign base effect, with a 3.5% contraction in output in October 2011. While ‘petroleum coke’ expanded by 82%, ‘furnace oil’ recorded a de-growth of 28% in November 2012 (refer Annexure B).

Table 4: Contribution to the Manufacturing Sector by Sub-Sectors Sub-Sectors Weight Growth

in Nov 2012

Contribution to Manuf.

Growth Radio, TV & Communication Equipment & Apparatus

1.0 15.3% 1.2%

Electrical Machinery & Apparatus 2.0 25.1% 1.1% Basic Metals 11.3 7.0% 1.1% Food Products & Beverages 7.3 6.5% 0.6% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel

6.7 8.5% 0.6%

Others Displaying Expansion 19.8 4.0% 0.7%

Others Displaying Contraction 27.4 -12.6% -4.9%

Manufacturing 75.53 0.3% 0.3%



Mining & Quarrying: This sub-sector displayed a 5.5% contraction in November 2012, inferior to the 3.5% de-growth in November 2011. Following the 2.3% growth in September 2012, output was stagnant in October 2012 before registering a decline in November 2012 in y-o-y terms. The Index of Core Industries released by the Office of the Economic Advisor, Government of India indicates a worsening pace of growth of coal production since September 2012; coal output expanded by 21% in September 2012 and 11% in October 2012, before contracting by 4.4% in November 2012, reflecting the base effect (refer Table 5). The pace of de-growth of natural gas remained around 15% in these three months. In addition, closure of one of Nalco’s bauxite mines in Odisha from mid-November 2012 to mid-December 2012 (following the expiry of its 30-year lease) contributed towards the weak mining performance in November 2012. Mining & quarrying output contracted by 1.6% in April-November 2012, as compared to the 2.4% de-growth in the same months in 2011. The growth performance of mining & quarrying in the first eight months of FY13 was inferior to the other sectors of the IIP. Electricity: Electricity generation expanded by a sluggish 2.4% in November 2012 as compared to the robust 14.6% growth in November 2011. Data released by the CEA indicates that thermal electricity generation expanded by 5.6% in November 2012 in y-o-y terms, the weakest pace of growth in the current fiscal year, in line with the inferior performance of domestic coal production in that month. The pace of de-growth of hydro electricity generation in y-o-y terms eased slightly to 20.3% in November 2012 from 23.5% in October 2012. This reflects the moderation in the deficit in post-monsoon rainfall from 28% below the long period average (LPA) as on October 31, 2012 to 19% as on November 28, 2012. Electricity generation expanded by a modest 4.5% in April-November 2012, considerably lower than the 9.5% growth recorded in the same months of 2011-12. Nevertheless, this remains the fastest growing sector of the IIP so far in FY13.

Table 5: Growth of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Weight 4.379 5.216 1.708 Sept 2011 -18.2% 0.1% -6.4% Oct 2011 -8.8% -0.9% -7.4% Nov 2011 4.9% -5.6% -10.1% Sept 2012 21.4% -1.7% -14.9% Oct 2012 11.0% -0.4% -14.9% Nov 2012 -4.4% 0.7% -15.2%

Source: Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA Analysis Chart 3: Contribution to IIP Growth in November 2012

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis

Mining, -0.6%

Basic, 0.7%Manufacturing, 0.2%

Capital, -1.0%

Electricity, 0.2%

Intermediate, -0.1%

Durables, 0.3%

Non Durables, 0.1%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%


USE-BASED CLASSIFICATION Capital Goods: In line with our expectations, capital goods output contracted by 7.7% in November 2012 following the short-lived uptick in October 2012 (7.5% growth), reflecting the base effect (refer Chart 4 and Annexure A). While the de-growth in capital goods has eased from 14% in H1FY13 (4.6% growth in H1FY12) to 0.6% in October-November 2012 (16.3% de-growth in Oct-Nov 2011) in y-o-y terms, this is the only sub-index that contracted during the latter period highlighting the continuing sluggishness of investment activity. Items such as ‘tractors’, ‘commercial vehicles’ and ‘grinding wheels’, with a combined weight of 2.94% in the IIP Index, displayed a substantial contraction in November 2012. However, items such as ‘aluminium conductors’ and ‘cable, rubber insulated’ displayed a considerable expansion in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). As compared to the 1.0% contraction in April-November 2011, capital goods output has declined by 11.1% in April-November 2012, the worst performance amongst the use-based categories. Basic Goods: The pace of growth of basic goods eased to 1.7% in November 2012 from 4.1% in October 2012, reflecting the base effect (refer Chart 5). Notably, basic goods expanded at a somewhat slower pace in October-November 2012 (2.9%) relative to the 3.8% growth recorded in the same months of 2011-12. While the pace of growth of fertilisers improved in November 2012 relative to the previous month as indicated by the Index of Core Industries (refer Annexure C), the pace of growth of electricity, coal and cement worsened. Additionally, data released by CSO indicates that ‘carbon steel’ and ‘HR Coils’ displayed a considerable expansion in y-o-y terms in November 2012 even as ‘stampings & forgings’ recorded a 28% contraction in the same month (refer Annexure B). The pace of growth of basic goods declined to a sluggish 2.8% in April-November 2012 from a moderate 6.3% in April-November 2011.

Chart 4: Growth of Capital Goods

Source: CSO, ICRA Analysis Chart 5: Growth of Basic Goods


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50%

2011-12 2012-13

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12%

2011-12 2012-13


Intermediate Goods: This sub-index displayed a 1.1% contraction in November 2012 as compared to the 1.3% expansion in November 2011 (refer Chart 6). While items such as ‘block board’ and ‘furnace oil’ contracted sharply in November 2012 in y-o-y terms, ‘petroleum coke’ and ‘cotton yarn’ displayed a considerable expansion in the same month (refer Annexure B). The 9.3% expansion of intermediate goods recorded in October 2012 was an aberration, benefitting from the benign base effect related to refinery products, which account for over 35% of the intermediate goods index; maintenance shutdowns at various refineries of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited and Essar Energy in October 2011 had contributed to a sharp contraction in intermediate goods in that month. The pace of growth of intermediate goods improved to 4% in October-November 2012 (-3.6% in Oct-Nov 2011) from 1.2% in H1FY13 (0.5% in H1FY12). Intermediate goods expanded by 1.8% in the first eight months of 2012-13, a slight improvement as compared to the 0.6% de-growth in April-November 2011. Consumer Durables: Reflecting the base effect, the pace of growth of consumer durables declined sharply to 1.9% in November 2012 (10.4% in November 2011) from 16.9% in October 2012 (-0.4% in October 2011, refer Chart 7). Items such as ‘air conditioners’ and ‘PVC pipes and tubes’ displayed a considerable de-growth, which was partly offset by robust growth of ‘telephone instruments’ in November 2012 (refer Annexure B). In April-November 2012, consumer durables have grown at a similar pace as compared to the 5.2% growth in the same months of 2011-12, the best performance amongst the use-based categories. However, inventory build-up to meet festive season demand boosted the growth of consumer durables to 9.3% in October-November 2012 (4.8% in Oct-Nov 2011) from 3.9% in H1FY13. Notwithstanding the moderate consumer sentiments, this sub-sector is expected to record robust growth in Q4FY13 given the benign base effect.

Chart 6: Growth of Intermediate Goods

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis Chart 7: Growth of Consumer Durables


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-8%-6%-4%

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0%2%4%

6%8%

10%

12%

2011-12 2012-13

-10%

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15%

20%

2011-12 2012-13


Consumer Non-Durables: Similar to the trend displayed by consumer durables, the pace of growth of consumer non-durables moderated to 0.3% in November 2012 from 10.7% in October 2012 (refer Chart 8). The pace of growth of consumer non-durables declined from 7.8% in October-November 2011 to 5.1% in October-November 2012. This suggests that high food inflation continues to dampen household disposable income and consumer spending. However, growth of consumer non-durables improved considerably to 5.1% in October-November 2012 from 1.6% in H1FY13. This is likely to reflect a building up of inventories following a modest improvement in rural consumption demand with kharif production likely to be somewhat better than what was previously expected. In November 2012, the performance of consumer non-durables was dampened by the sharp de-growth of items such as ‘newspapers’ and ‘razor blades’, whereas other items such as ‘rice’ and ‘antibiotics & its preparations’ displayed a considerable expansion in the same month (refer Annexure B). Overall, growth of consumer non-durables declined to 2.5% in April-November 2012 from 4.9% in the same months in 2011-12.

Chart 8: Growth of Consumer Non-Durables

Source: CSO, ICRA Analysis Chart 9: Growth of Use-Based Categories in October-November 2011 and 2012


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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2011-12 2012-13

-20%

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-4%

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8%

12%

Oct-Nov 2011 Oct-Nov 2012


ANNEXURE A: Chart 10: Year-on-Year Growth in Mining & Quarrying Chart 11: Year-on-Year Growth in Manufacturing


Chart 12: Year-on-Year Growth in Electricity Chart 13: Year-on-Year Growth in Basic Goods


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Chart 14: Year-on-Year Growth in Capital Goods Chart 15: Year-on-Year Growth in Intermediate Goods


Chart 16: Year-on-Year Growth in Consumer Durables Chart 17: Year-on-Year Growth in Consumer Non-Durables


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-8%

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ANNEXURE B:

Items Weight Growth in

Oct 2012 Manufacturing Sub-Sector Use-Based Classification

Conductor, Aluminium 0.20 78.7% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.12 45.3% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods Tractors 0.38 -20.5% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods Commercial Vehicles 1.93 -28.3% Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-Trailers Capital Goods Plastic Machinery incl. Moulding Machinery 0.26 -40.4% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C Capital Goods Grinding Wheels 0.29 -43.7% Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products Capital Goods Drilling Equipment 0.09 -57.7% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods

CR Sheets 0.56 34.1% Basic Metals Basic Goods HR Coils/ Skelp 1.30 24.3% Basic Metals Basic Goods Stainless/ Alloy Steel 0.64 19.7% Basic Metals Basic Goods Carbon Steel 0.78 18.8% Basic Metals Basic Goods Stampings & Forgings 0.49 -28.2% Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery & Equipment Basic Goods

Petroleum Coke 0.16 82.4% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel Intermediate Cotton Yarn 1.51 21.9% Textiles Intermediate

Block Board 0.51 -27.1% Wood & Products Of Wood & Cork Except Furniture; Articles of Straw & Plating Materials Intermediate

Furnace Oil 0.39 -28.0% Coke, Refined Petroleum Products & Nuclear Fuel Intermediate

Telephone Instruments 0.22 18.1% Radio, TV & Communication Equipment & Apparatus Consumer Durables PVC Pipes & Tubes 0.19 -33.1% Rubber & Plastics Products Consumer Durables Air Conditioner (Room) 0.29 -36.6% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Consumer Durables

Antibiotics & its Preparations 2.38 28.4% Chemicals & Chemical Products Consumer Non-Durables Rice 0.66 21.3% Food Products & Beverages Consumer Non-Durables Razor Blades/ Safety Blades 0.53 -28.4% Fabricated Metal Products, Except Machinery & Equipment Consumer Non-Durables Newspapers 1.01 -22.7% Publishing, Printing & Reproduction Of Recorded Media Consumer Non-Durables

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis


ANNEXURE C: Growth in Index of Core Industries

Source Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA Analysis

Index of Core Industries

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Refinery Products

Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity

Weight 37.9% 4.38% 5.2% 1.71% 5.94% 1.25% 6.68% 2.41% 10.32%

Month

Oct-11 0.4% -8.8% -0.9% -7.4% -2.9% -2.1% 4.2% 0.3% 5.3%

Nov-11 7.8% 4.9% -5.6% -10.1% 11.2% -6.7% 10.5% 17.0% 14.4%

Oct-12 6.5% 11.0% -0.4% -14.9% 20.3% 2.0% 5.9% 6.8% 5.6%

Nov-12 1.8% -4.4% 0.7% -15.2% 6.6% 5.0% 6.0% -0.2% 2.3%

April-Nov FY12 4.8% -4.0% 2.9% -8.5% 4.4% -0.7% 8.9% 4.8% 9.4%

April-Nov FY13 3.5% 6.7% -0.5% -13.1% 7.2% -3.3% 3.4% 6.7% 4.6%


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index of industrial production november … nov 2012.pdfthe index of industrial production (iip)...

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