in times of crisis: protecting the vulnerable and investing in children gaspar fajth unicef policy...
TRANSCRIPT
In Times of Crisis: Protecting the Vulnerable and
Investing in Children
Gaspar FajthUNICEF Policy and Practice
New York6 February, 2009
The structure of the presentation
1. Arguments: why children should get priority
2. Reality check: evidence on the impact of • structural poverty• economic shocks
3. Policy options: the need to focus on progress• outcomes• institutions
The structure of the presentation
1. Arguments: why children should get priority
2. Reality check: evidence on the impact of • structural poverty• economic shocks
3. Policy options: the need to focus on progress• outcomes• institutions
Why children should get priority in public policy?
1. Moral and legal commitments Private and public support 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child
2. High returns to investment Childhood is the best opportunity to invest in human resources Social rates of returns are particularly high among girls Gains in social stability, social cohesion and economic growth
3. High risks that this investment will not happen, due to Child and household poverty or social exclusion
Poor maternal nutrition, health Lack of basic social services, shelter Loss of parental upbringing, exposure to abuse, violence Low awareness on children’s individual needs or discrimination (gender, disability) Lack of early childhood support, youth support Labour market discrimination, vulnerability to economic cycles
Economic and social crises
4. Short window opportunity Vulnerability: permanently damaging effects of even temporarily lack of support
The case for investing in children is global and evidence-based…
• Micronutrients for children the most productive global investment (Copenhagen Consensus, 2008) providing essential vitamins and minerals would cost $60 million per year and hold
annual benefits above $1 billion: a 1500 per cent rate of return (Horton at al 2008)
• Infant and maternal nutrition shifting one low birth weight infant to non-low birth weight status would yield $580 in
productivity and social gains in poor countries (Behrman at al 2004) evidence in rural Guatemala suggests that that for every 100 gram increase in maternal
birth weight, her infant’s birth weight increased by 29 grams (Ramakrisnan at al 1999)
• Early childhood development analysis of four early childhood and pre-school programmes indicates benefit-cost ratios
range between 3.8-17.0 to one in the US (Schweinhart, L 2004)
• Basic education the estimated rate of return to one additional year of schooling is 10 per cent on average
globally even without counting the social benefits of better education (Psacharopoulos at al. (2004)
• Child protection Children from socio-economically deprived families had a chance 700 times the average
for placement in substitute care in the UK (Bebbington and Miles, 1989)
… suggesting such investments yield high and long-lasting returns for both families and entire societies.
The structure of the presentation
1. Arguments: why children should get priority
2. Reality check: evidence on the impact of
• structural poverty• economic shocks
3. Policy options: the need to focus on progress• outcomes• institutions
Global evidence on the impact of structural poverty on children
• nutrition
• water, sanitation, shelter
• access to any health service
• access to information, formal education
• equal opportunity to participate
Severe nutrition deprivation prevalence% of young children below 3 standard deviation from norm (weight for age)
30 30
2927
26 2625
23 23 23
2119 19
18 18 18 1817 16 16 16
14 1413
12 1211
109 9 9
77
5
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Bangl
ades
h
Niger
Ethio
pia
Nepal
Indi
a
Mal
iM
adag
asca
rCha
dPak
istan
M
alaw
iRwan
daG
uate
mal
a
Centra
l Afri
can
Repub
licTan
zani
aZam
bia
Moz
ambi
que
Mau
ritan
iaUga
nda
Burkin
a Fas
o
Haiti
Niger
iaEgy
ptKen
yaCôt
e d'I
voire
Camer
oon
Cambo
dia
Gha
naZim
babw
eBol
ivia
Mor
occo
Nicara
gua
Peru
Yemen
China
Brazil
developing countries average: 15%
Over 90 million under 5 year olds …up to 300 million children
Children exposed to severe sanitation, water, food and health service deprivation
97
174
58
3443
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East andNorth Africa
Latin America &Caribbean
East Asia & Pacific
% c
hild
ren
de
pri
ved
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
U5
MR
Sanitation Water Food Health
Between 570-260 million children…
Children exposed to shelter, information and education deprivation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Middle East and NorthAfrica
Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America South Asia East Asia & Pacif ic
Shelter Information Education
Between 600 and 130 million children
Child deprivations accumulate… and often overlap
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 ormore
2 ormore
3 ormore
4 ormore
5 ormore
6 ormore
7
Deprivations
Developing World
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East and NorthAfrica
Latin America andCaribbean
East Asia and Pacific
One out of two children is exposed to severe deprivation of human need
Inheriting income advantages: the extent fathers’ earnings determine the future earnings of their children (%)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Ecuador
Brazil
Peru
Malaysia
United Kingdom
United States
Pakistan
Nepal
France
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Canada
Equal opportunity?
The structure of the presentation
1. Arguments: why children should get priority
2. Reality check: evidence on the impact of • structural poverty
• economic shocks
3. Policy options: the need to focus on progress• outcomes• institutions
Global evidence on the impact of economic shocks on children
• survival, nutrition, health
• access to health service
• access to education
• child protection, family upbringing
1. Child survival: -1.0% GDP= +0.6% IMR in 59 developing countries experiencing shocks in the past 1 %
drop in per capita GDP was associated with 0.3-0.8 % increase in infant deaths
2. Access to health service: down by a third the number of young children taken to health care centers fell from
47% to 28% between 1997 and 1998 in Indonesia during the financial crisis
3. Access to education: strong correlation upper secondary enrolment rates have fallen in 18 out of 24
CEE/CIS countries in the 1990s showing correlation with falling output
4. Child protection: child abandonment rises infant home placement rates have increased in 20 out of 26
CEE/CIS countries in the 1990s
Examples:
The structure of the presentation
1. Arguments: why children should get priority
1. Reality check: evidence on the impact of • structural poverty• economic shocks
2. Policy options: the need to focus on progress
• results - outcomes• institutions
Child sensitive social protection: proven results
reduced child poverty, improved family income stability (MDG 1) improved preventive health care (MDG 4 and 5) higher immunization rates (MDG 4) better nutrition (MDG 1, 4 and 6) reduced school drop-out (MDG 2) higher primary and secondary school enrolment rates (MDG 2) improved secondary attendance, especially for girls (MDG 3) decline in child labour among children in rural areas (MDG 2, 8)
Social protection: the importance of institutions building
Is the social protection system child and gender sensitive? pro-poor? efficient? provide spillovers to social services?
Can it work as anti-cyclical economic policy tool? as rapid response tool in times of crisis (tsunami, food prices,
income shocks etc)?
Will the next crises find countries and the international community better prepared?
