impact of flooding in mediterranean europe: the case of catalonia marÍa del carmen llasat...
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Impact of flooding in Mediterranean Europe: the Impact of flooding in Mediterranean Europe: the case of Cataloniacase of Catalonia
MARÍA DEL CARMEN LLASATMARÍA DEL CARMEN LLASAT Meteorological Hazards Analysis TeamMeteorological Hazards Analysis TeamDepartment of Astronomy & MeteorologyDepartment of Astronomy & MeteorologyUniversity of Barcelona, SpainUniversity of Barcelona, [email protected] http://www.am.ub.es/~carmell
Participating Institution in the MEDEX programme
Workshop on Social Impact Research in MEDEX. Barcelona 23-24 February 2004
A. The framework: Floods in the Mediterranean EuropeB. Catalonia: events 2002, damages, casualties, space, timeC. The answer: public policies against floods
Besos River, 25 September 1962, 815 deaths
Part A: the framework
The social perception from the press: What is it telling us?
The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us?
The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?
815
82 128 13719 33 15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Themes (File GAMA)
Number of news in the press(1982-2002) 1 – Heavy rainfalls, floods and landslides
2 – Wind storms
3 - Snow and cold
4 – Forest fires, agromet. risks and heat waves
5 - Sustainable development, climatic change, polution
6 - Alert chain
7 - Others
497
3196 96
13 186
050
100150200250300350400450500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Themes (File GAMA)
Number of news about Catalonia in the press (1982-2002)
The social perception from the press: What are they telling us?
0
50
100
150
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Theme (File GAMA)
Number of events in the press (1982-2002)
RINAMED project
CAUSE Nº EXPED. % PAYED %
Flood 228.178 55,17 1.574.530.945 75,86
Earthquake 10.733 2,59 16.141.144 0,78
Atypical cyclonic storm 125.277 30,29 227.870.565 10,98
Sideral bodies fall 3 0,00 41.470 0,00
Terrorism 24.708 5,97 178.523.531 8,60
Riot 146 0,04 668.966 0,03
Popular rising 4.982 1,20 41.852.408 2,02
FF.AA. actuations 640 0,15 1.117.239 0,05
Various 18.946 4,58 34.916.063 1,68
TOTAL 413.613 100 2.075.662.330 100
Expedients and compensations payed by the CCS 1971-2002. Source CCS
The social perception from the reinsuraces companies: What are they telling us?
Flash-floods: Catalonia, 10 June 2000: 215 mm/3h, 5 casualties, 65. 106 €.
Floods: East of Spain, 19-25 October 2000: 177 mm/24 h (>600 mm), 11 casualties
Flash-floods: Gard region, 8 September 2002: 687 mm/24 h, 23 casualties, 1,2. 106 €
Floods and landslides (+ snowmelt): Lombardia, 13-27 November 2002, 559 mm(5 days), Private damages: 8.182.000 euros, Public damages: 5.430.000 €
Montserrat, June 2000 Aaramon, sep 2002
The social perception from the facts: What are they telling us?
Part B: The Catalan case
•2002: Two events of different social impact. Why?
•The role of the mass media
•From damages to risk: some considerations in basis to objective information
An event with a great social impactThe“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002
“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002
“Castelldefels” event, 8-10 October 2002: Why the social impact was so strong?
36 headlines in press
169.4 mm/24 h (201) 156 mm/12 h (199) 127,7 mm/6 h (198)
45.7 mm/1 h (148)The cumulated rainfall? Hydroptimet project
The damages?
Fireman’s exits: 370 4 houses collapsed6 h traffic-jam: 1000 cars Airport control center inondated>200 flights cancelledGreat losses in Agriculture (>70% in Baix Llobregat)Cuts: Power electricity (>30.000 users) , underground, train, Debris flow in Garraf mountainHail
The forecast?.Flood warnings in different parts of Spain
319.1 mm/24 h (26) 280.9 mm/12 h (26) 243.1 mm/6 h (26) 68.6 mm/1 h (26)
A different case: the“Empordà” event, 9-12 April 2002
20 headlines (including sea storm and temporal of snow)
Why this difference?
The cumulated rainfall?
“Empordà” event, 9-12 April 2002
Fireman’s exits: 150
600 scholarships evacuated.
Cuts: roads, streets, power electricity (>5.000 users)
Partial destruction of some river channels
Damages in some buildings (mainly, parkings)
Damages in agriculture
Wind storm: Ebro Delta (waves of 4 m); Alt Empordà, 128.5 km/h NW (waves of 5 m)
The damages?
The specific affected area?
Differences in orography and geomorfology, land uses, hydraulic infraestructures
Case A20 years: 24000 to 46000 inhabitants in Castelldefels
Previous flood on 12 September, (287 mm/6 h) 1.000.000 €October flood 892.000 €The Council of Castelldefels asked the declaration of “Catastrophique Zone”
Case B
La Jonquera (frontier Spain France): 60.000 €
The role of the mass media: >news and TV time devoted to the Castelldefels event
Event P(mm) Deaths L(106 €) Exped(CCS) P (CCS) (€)
22/10/1907 29
17-18/10/1940 800 90
25/9/1962 250 815 16
20-23/9/1971 400 19 42
6-8/11/1982 556 14 270 1.587 15.899.787
1-5/10/1987 431 10 1.000 3.243 13.214.694
9-10/10/1994 400 9 60 4.631 46.830.863
10/06/2000 224 5 66 2.952 27.510.603
The worst events: Some figures about the damages
Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros: Quantities payed during 2002Barcelona 24.714.080 € (mainly Castelldefels cases)Tarragona 2.204.838 € (mainly Empordà + Castelldefels cases)Girona 1.904.816 € (mainly Empordà case) Lleida 61.466 € TOTAL 28.885.200 €
Some questions arise from those observations
• The more the rainfall the more the flood?
• More risk more damages?
• More damages more floods?
• More floods more rainfall?
• More information less casualties?
Social Impact Damages Vulnerability + Hazard =Risk
•The more the rainfall the more the flood?
1900-2000
Llobregat basin: 11 cases the highest rainfall / 35 Cases affected by floods
Ter basin: 12 cases the highest rainfall / 48 cases affected by floods
Segre basin: 5 cases the highest rainfall / 9 cases affected by floods
More risk more damages?
However, in the previous 8 selected cases (20th century) the Llobregat basin was always affected
14th-20th centuries
Girona: 121 floods
Baix Llobregat: 112 floods
Lleida: 41
1301 1351 1401 1451 1501 1551 1601 1651 1701 1751 1801 1851 1901 1951 2001
0
0.5
1
1.5
-0.5
30y. Filter 10y. Filter
CATALONIA. Catastrophic floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)
1301 1351 1401 1451 1501 1551 1601 1651 1701 1751 1801 1851 1901 1951 2001
0
0.5
1
1.5
-0.5
30y. Filter 10y. Filter
CATALONIA. Extraordinary floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)
0.1
0.1
Nr. of overflows: 175
Nr. of overflows: 344
More damages more floods? SPHERE project
1672 1692 1712 1732 1752 1772 1792 1812 1832 1852 1872 1892 1912 1932 1952 1972 1992
0
0.5
1
1.5
-0.5
30y. Filter 10y. Filter
MARESME COUNTRY. Catastrophic floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)
1672 1692 1712 1732 1752 1772 1792 1812 1832 1852 1872 1892 1912 1932 1952 1972 1992
0
0.5
1
1.5
-0.5
30y. Filter 10y. Filter
MARESME COUNTRY. Extraordinary floods. (Smoothing filter 10 and 30 years)
Nr. of overflows: 86
Nr. of overflows: 125
More damages more floods?
TESTS FOR TREND
Spearman Rank Statistic: rs = 0.881 <? Tkrit_97.5% = 33.295 (O.K.)
Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic: t = 0.680 <? Tkrit_95% = 0.073 (OUT)
Linear Regression:y = 0.0032·x – 0.5397
1672 1704 1736 1768 1800 1832 1864 1896 1928 1960 1992
0123456789
-1-2-3-4
1E-3
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4
Maresme Basin Extraordinary Floods Alella Annual Precipitation
Trend
Accumulate slopes for extraordinary floods in Maresme BasinAccumulate slopes for extraordinary floods in Maresme Basin
•More floods more rainfall?
Barcelona annual precipitation (1787-2003)
y = 0,2258x + 543,21
R2 = 0,0068
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1787
1793
1799
1805
1811
1817
1823
1829
1835
1841
1847
1853
1859
1865
1871
1877
1883
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1913
1919
1925
1931
1937
1943
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1955
1961
1967
1973
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1991
1997
2003
year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
mm
)
Number of floods per year (1900-2000)
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1900
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1927
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1945
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1951
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1957
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1972
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1978
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Year
Nu
mb
er o
f fl
oo
ds
Catastrophic and Extraordinary floods per year
0
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3,5
Year
Extraordinary floods
Catastrophic floods
Number of floods versus maximum 24h precipitation
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00
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Nu
mb
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of
flo
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s
Number of floods
Floods with Pmax>150mm
More damages more floods?
1900-2000: A flood increasing?
1950-2000: Flood ? P>150 mm
1950-2000: Extraordinary floods > catastrophic floods
•More information less casualties?
Distribution of the number of casualties per year
0
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10
15
20
25
30
35
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
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1936
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1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
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Year
Nu
mb
er o
f ca
sual
ties
1971-2002: Reinboursements payed CCS
1900-2000: casualties produded directly by floods
Part C: The answer: public policies against floods
Special Report presented by the ombudsman of Catalonia: delimitation of flood risk zones + information to citizens maintenance hidraulic/measurement infraestructures + reflexion about reinsurance systems
INUNCAT
VI Long-Term Plan 2004-2011World Meteorological Organisation: Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme: to ensure the integration of relevant activities being carried out under the various WMO Programmes in the area of disaster prevention and mitigation, and to provide for the effective coordination of the pertinent WMO activities with related activities of international, regional and national organizations involved, including civil defence organizations
Thanks for your attention
Thanks to the members of GAMA for their support