ihe idc.ppt

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Hydroinformatics in Transition, UNESCO-IHE, May 2008

Whol Systm Modllin!- th "#t#r of Hydroinformatics

$rofssor Ian Cl#c%iWatr and En&ironmntal Mana!mnt 'sarch Cntr (WEM'C)

Uni&rsity of *ristol


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+ nral Scnario

P

E

Qs

Ss

Sg

Qg

Ig

CoupledOcean-Atmosphere

Models

Mesoscale

Models

SVATs

Hydrologic/Routing

Models

Water Resources

Applications

Sorooshian, HEPEX,

2004


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-SundayTimesmagazin

e

11.3.2

007

If th rnlandic sht r tomlt it o#ld

rais !lo.al sa

l&ls .y aro#nd/m1 Mt Oc

(2003)

The othertype of

ooding

Climate Change Impat


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!"SC#ST$E %$#SH %$""&


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!"SC#ST$E %$#SH %$""&


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Domain 1

Domain 2

Domain 4

Domain 3

Con4!#ration for NW$

MM5 V3 comes withmature code to deal withmesoscale dynamics

Configured to run onPC/LINUX cluster toroduce 5!m weatherrediction o"er the U!domain# $higher resolution

ossi%le& Potential to conductensem%le run withowerful 'PC facility


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Why rid-

matchin!5 Pro(ectionmismatch for twosystems

)reas co"eredare not the same

Nimrod *orecast

Nimrod )ctuals

MM5 *orecast


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Changes in Height of '0 yearStorm S(rge

Sa l&ls st to ris.y 60 cm this cnt#ry

Chan!s in storms#r!s also im7ortant,

&ry d7ndnt onchan! in circ#lation7attrn

Chan!s incirc#lation ar &ry#ncrtain

Mor dtaild or%r#ird to 7ro&idrlia.l information

Climate Change Impat


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Crown

S#r! Ensm.l Man(conto#rs) and S7rad


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Thames Tidal !arrier


11/32Th Storm from Hll9 : 6000yr


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54x54km 18x18km

6x6k

m

2x2km


13/32

Enhaned Ensem)le*ater $e+els at

Sheerness


14/32

Mike 11 simulation close to high tide at the barrier


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In(ndation ap for E-tremeE+ent

Source: !"!C Co-#ocation $or%shop 200&


16/32

In(ndation for E-treme E+ent

Source: !"!C Co-#ocation $or%shop 200&


17/32*eather .adar #nimation 20 /(ly


18/32

%loods in $o1er Se+ern/(ly 20, 200

Photo

byDavidHughes

http://

nes!b

bc!co!u

k23!"!#

"


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T%s.#ryS#nday 22 ;#ly 200/htt7


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*alham S1ithing

Station, nearlo(ester, ser+ing

'00,000 people3

'icture source: http:((www.mai#onsunday.co.u%


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'icture source: http:((www.mai#onsunday.co.u%

Ensm.l $rdictionof In#ndation 'is%and Uncrtainty +risin!

from Sco#r(E$I'US)

NE'C "'EE $'O'+M


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$ur% &one

Models

Meteorological

Models

Tide, S(rge *a+eodelling %rame1or5

'ontinental Model

()M[Grid size ~ 12km]

*egional Model

P+,'+M$[Grid size ~1.8km]

'oastal &one Model

'+)$-2D[Grid size ~250m]

-ide. $urge

and (ave

Models


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Port H( H)- 2#1/

rt +D0

1/3 surge

at local H(

-otal

+D0

$heerness 13!##

3!41 1! /!2"

(oolich 14!##

3!1 1! /!""

Height o% -hames arrier is ! m a+D0

Co(ld a largers(rge o(r at

high 1ater6

Defra/EA, TE2100 Phase 2

E>trm S#r!s in th So#thrnNorth Sa< Th E&nts of 6?@A


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7The reatStorm8

9:; '

.ainfall

and


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+, -uly +,,. /torm 0 1, MM5 ensem%les 2 control


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$oal P"$ models for the !ristol

Channel and Se+ern Est(ary


27/32


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*itho(t !arrage *ith !arrage

Tidal C#rrnt Modllin!

ean %lood < Spring TideSource: a#coner) *!C) Cardi+


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C

OAST2D

Coastal =one odel >

C"#ST2&

Sur, one"ode#s

ave re%lection

(aves

'urrents

-ransport

Module

ave di%%raction

ave re%raction

bottom di%%usion

ave breaking

Hydrodynamic

Module

(P) option

Morphological

Module

5(P option

!egiona#"ode#s


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uic%Time/ and adecompressor

are needed to see this picture.

S

ource:!eee)

'#ymouth


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uic%Time/ and adecompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Source: !eee) '#ymouth


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S* %loods"to)er 2000

I Hope

?o(En@oyedthe Tal5

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