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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds

When we evaluate the 21st century which did not welcome for the Middle East. The process

that began with Al Qaeda's attacks on the United States as of September 11, 2001, which was

continued with the announcement of the USA "Global War Against Terrorism" and launched

the ongoing US wars in the region. In fact, this 10-year chaotic process ended with the

beginning of the Arab Uprising. Initially, a great deal was being written and said about the

Arab Spring which was supposed to be set sail for new hopes. Against this background,

uprisings have also caused for complex new political dynamics that can not be predicted at

the same time. As far as I am concerned, it was a test, an upheaval and a period of violence,

but that did not necessarily mean a period of positive change; to be honest, the future does

not look very much bright for the Middle Eastearn countries.

As a matter of fact it was very much instructive and challenging to read. It would be fit to

say that the primary objective of this study is the evaluation of Arab Spring process and its

dynamics. Its methodology is obviously qualitative, in this context we cannot find any

quantative data within the study. Beside, the subject is perfectly well addressed as far as the

methodology is concerned. Although some of the notions have not been mentioned in the

article, it was well-designed research, also the authors of the article who are Jason Brownlee,

Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynolds precisely made a scientific contribution to the

literature. In my paper, firstly I would like to sum up authors’ point of view then I am going

to discuss the weak side of the article and the missing parts or some points that were

expected to be included in this crucial research as well. I am not going to merely criticize the

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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynoldsarticle, also I am going to mention which parts of the article attracted my attention

affirmatively.

It is worth bearing in mind that the Middle Eastern countries are almost entirely in search of

ideological, strategic, ethnic and sectarian power is to be re-constructed. From some angles,

these changes have been a tiny bit delayed, this is also an important reason why the region is

stuck for right now. For this “kaleidoscopic” process, the word "plus ça change, plus c'est la

meme chose" can be used for the region: “ The more things change the more they stay the

same.”1, at least it seems so now. Although regular violence explosions, the Arab world has

been stuck in its failures, in its periodic chaos shifts and in its authoritarianism. Authoritarian

governments do not give up their puissance merely when they pass away which was

emphasized in the article; in fact, the elections are only for the show within those countries.

Half of the people are not evaluated as legal and economic beings, and more than half of

young people are locked out, also a large amount of people are fed up with conservative

traditions, are said to desire to run along as early as possible.2 The arguments given above

prove that those are the core reasons of Arab countries can't keep up with the times.

In the article, the authors divided Arab countries into two major groups; one of them is oil

wealth & hereditary rule countries, rest of them lacked major oil resource & had not

1 Fuller, Graham E, “Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East”, Published by Bozorg Press, p. 39

2 http://www.economist.com/node/1213392(Last Accessed December 17, 2016)

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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynoldsestablished hereditary succession during ruling period. In other words, if authoritarian

regimes hadn’t established hereditary successions and do not have the oil resources as well,

they would not have coped with the domestic uprisings and they could be easily defeated

against revolts.

In this context, the authors paid attention to the bother of protestors due to the fact that

demonstrations of the Arab Uprising influential narrations of mass dissatisfaction that these

countries had experienced in decades. In that sense, people organized collectively in order to

challenge regimes. Mass media (facebook, twitter, youtube and so on) as a tool played a

crucial role during those uprisings.

The authors preferred to use some dimensions such as diffusion of social-networking tools

and the posture of the army, to examine the historical and constructional factors that

determined the balance of power between incumbents and oppositionists. At that stage, the

authors used some variables under those dimensions, these are; states were faced with

“regime change” and states experienced “foreign-imposed regime change” (FIRC).

In addition, I would like to point out what are missing and what are supposed to be stated in

the article.

First of all, the authors’ approach is actually a tiny bit narrow. They preferred to use only two

variables to carry out this study. They desire to know what are the impetus and shapes these

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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynoldsuprisings. Thus, in lieu of using multiple dimensions to express regarding issue, the authors

narrow down their options only to “resource curse”. Despite, making a quite well

introduction about all aim of study, that is to know in what ways substantial factors impress

decisions of Arabs, actually oil and hereditary are not the only factors that are shaped all the

period of uprisings.

For instance, demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables, economic declines, the rate of

unemployment, extreme poverty and a number of demographic structural factors that were

caused and shaped the uprisings drastically. Furthermore, 15% of Arabs live on less than

USD 2 a day. Also, last 20 years, growth in income per capita, at an annual rate of 0.5% was

slower than anywhere else in the world except sub-Saharan Africa.3 I strongly believe that,

the most important obstacles to the progress of Arabs freedom, knowledge and

womanpower.

In fact, the deficit of freedom explains most of the things that are wrong in the Arab

countries: the existence and continuity of the authoritarian regimes, the holding of counterfeit

elections; disorder in the executive and the judicial system, restriction on the media and on

civil society and a patriarchal, impatient, sometimes suffocative social environment.

It should be noted that women do not treat as full citizens in Arab countries, it is globally

known fact. There can be no doubt that it is a huge waste of labor force: how can a society

3 - 4 http://www.economist.com/node/1213392(Last Accessed December 17, 2016)

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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynoldsprogress if it represses half of its productive population? Despite women’s rates of literacy

triple for the last thirty years, one in two Arab women still cannot read and write. In fact, the

participation in terms of politically and economically is the lowest level in all over the

world.4

The arguments given above prove that those are the missing parts of the article. These factors

which are not stated in the article so it does not reflect all authenticity on the ground, that

can be said, it is the only reductionism or simplification.

In addition, I cannot find the importance of social media during the uprisings within the

article. For instance, on January 27, 2011, the Egyptian government shutdown the entire

internet of the country and this sort of action that has never been done before by any leader.

The aim of this weird decision was to prevent virtual organizations of the society. But the

result was exactly the opposite of the aim. That being said, the public has a certain

motivation that triggers them to go out. Surely, the interruption of internet access, the public

who were too far away to support to the protests until that day, then they realized that the

situation was much more serious what they thought. This rough censorship got a great

reaction. After a while, the uncomfortable mass came out on the street. Protests brought to

end of Hosni Mubarak regime. Indeed, banning and blocking caused an opposite effect.

Because, as we have seen throughout history, the easiest way to spread an idea is to ban. The

large scaled ban caused to the greater the spread of that idea. Further to that, internet

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İbrahim Anıl ÇELİKBAŞ116605017Reflection Paper to Tracking the “Arab Spring”, Why the Modest Harvest? Jason Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew Reynoldsshutdown as an action caused by Egyptian stock market has been collapsed and damage the

country's economy deeply.

Despite the article has a clear and fluent language, the narration is a little bit superficial.

Besides, within the scope of the piece does not emphasize on depth and multidimensional of

the uprising process which was tried to summarize all processes by using some basic

concepts such as oil wealth and hereditary successions.

Last but not least, so true, for Arab countries, for all the people suffering the oppression of

war: ”This is to say that confronted with uncompromising violence social movement should

find ways to abstain from engaging in the same destructive logic since they can never win in

the confrontation. That is why social movements and revolutionary movements are not the

same kinds of collective actors. It may be inevitable to be drawn into the dynamic of

violence. Yet, this causes to the worse possible sort of death for the social movement.

Sometimes it will take extreme courage to respond to war with peace, in the hope of winning

the minds of people in the Arab countries and around the world. And yet, it may be the only

true defense against the barbarism practiced by states, all states, and the would-be state

actors confronting them.