Historic Descent or Global Civilization?

Expert Group MeetingUN Headquarters

November 19, 2007

Climate, Development, and Planetary Transition

Time

Indicators of development

Stabilization

Take-off

Acceleration

Phases of Transition

Historical Transitions

Early Civilization c. 10,000 years

20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present

Planetary Phasec. 100 years ?

Modern Erac. 1,000 years

Stone Age c. 100,000 yearsC

ompl

exit

y

Accelerated Transitions

105 104 103 102

Years Before Present

Stone Age

Early Civilization

Modern Era

Planetary Phase

105 104 103 102

Years Before Present

Tribe

City-state

Nation

Planet

Social Organization

105 104 103 102

Years Before Present

Hunting & gathering

Settled agriculture

Industrial capitalism

Economic Basis

Globalization

105 104 103 102

Years Before Present

Language

Writing

Printing

Internet

Communication

Glo

bal C

onne

ctiv

ity

1950 2000 2050

Take-off 1980-

Planetary Transition

Global environmental changeInformation technologyCollapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalismWTO, multinationals, “Davos Man” Earth Summit, NGOs, “Seattle Woman”

Branch PointsBranch Points

SCENARIOS

Sources of Uncertainty

•Ignorance

•Surprise

•Volition

An Integrated View

Conventional Worlds

Barbarization Great Transitions

Global Scenarios

policy reform

market forces

breakdown

fortress world

new sustainability

eco-communalism

Risky Bequest

Barbarization

Environment

Inequity

Resentment

Conflict

Xenophobia

Bending the CurvePeace

2060

Majo

r C

onflic

ts

1980

30

2020

Freedom

2060

Soci

al Equit

y

1980

1

2020

Development

20601980

1 billion

2020

Hunger

20601980

CO

2(p

pm

)

550

2020

300

2060

4.5 billion

20201980

Fore

sts

(ha)

320601980

5 billion

2020People

in s

tress

Climate Ecosystems Water

Limits of the Reform PathPolicy Reform is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available

But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense challenges

The critical uncertainty – where would the political will come from?

Reform may not be enough…..

New Sustainability Paradigm

•Quality of life

•Human solidarity

•Ecological sensibility

A values-led scenario

A pluralistic scenario

Proximate and Ultimate Drivers

Ultimate Drivers

Knowledge and Understanding

Power Structure

CultureValues and Needs

Proximate Drivers

Population Economy Technology Governance

Tools for Transitions

Market Forces

Policy Reform

Great Transition

well-beingconsumption

throughput

dematerialization wedge

dematerialization wedge

lifestyle wedge

rich

poor

poverty spring

equity magnet

Dimensions of Transition

ValuesKnowledge

Demographic

Social

Economic

Governance

Technology

Change Agents

Intergovernmental

organizations

Transnational corporationsCivil society

An aware and engaged public

The future is always present, as a promise and a lure. Karl Popper

Which worlddo we want?