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Hero Motocorp
Annual Report Analysis – Annual volumes of 12m by 2020
July 10, 2014
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Compan
y Update Surjit Arora
[email protected] +91‐22‐66322235
Hussain Kagzi [email protected] +91‐22‐66322242
Rating Accumulate
Price Rs2,538
Target Price Rs2,708
Implied Upside 6.7%
Sensex 25,445
Nifty 7,585
(Prices as on July 09, 2014)
Trading data
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 506.7
Shares o/s (m) 199.7
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 2408.8
Major shareholders
Promoters 39.92%
Foreign 30.81%
Domestic Inst. 8.02%
Public & Other 21.25%
Stock Performance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute (6.8) 22.7 52.9
Relative (6.3) (0.1) 22.0
How we differ from Consensus
EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff.
2015 139.2 140.9 ‐1.1
2016 169.3 168.1 0.7
Price Performance (RIC: HROM.BO, BB: HMCL
IN)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jul‐13
Sep‐13
Nov‐13
Jan‐14
Mar‐14
May‐14
Jul‐14
(Rs)
Hero Motorcorp’s (HMCL’s) FY14 annual report enthuses confidence regarding
recovery in the two wheeler segment. Vision 2020 targets annual volumes of 12
million – indicating 11% CAGR in volumes over next 6 years. During FY14, HMCL
made its first ever investment in equity of Erik Buell Racing (EBR) for an aggregate
amount of USD 25m. HMCL also partnered with Magneti Marelli (MM) to bring key
engine‐related technology where it will hold 60% stake in the new entity and invest
USD 27m over the next 10 years. There has been improvement in the working
capital which saw a swing of Rs8.0bn led by increase in credit terms from creditors.
As a result, cash flow from operations increased by Rs10bn (57%) to Rs29.6bn.
Given the strong product portfolio and the initial success of Splendor iSmart
(current production at 1,200units / day), we believe Hero Motocorp (HMCL) could
surprise positively on the volume front . We expect a 12.1% CAGR in revenues with
margins likely to expand by 120bps (given the cost‐cutting initiatives). At the CMP,
the stock trades at 18.5x FY15E EPS and 15.2x FY16E EPS, which is attractive, given
26.7% CAGR in earnings over FY14‐FY16E period.
Vision 2020 – 11% volume CAGR: The management indicated Annual bike and
scooter sales of 12 million – indicating 11% CAGR in volumes. They are likely to
surpass 100 million units in cumulative production. The company is looking to
set up More than 20 manufacturing and assembly plants globally and enhance
its reach in more than 50 countries. HMCL is targeting a Turnover of Rs600bn by
2020.
Contd...2
Key financials (Y/e March) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Revenues (Rs m) 237,681 252,755 280,789 317,403
Growth (%) 0.8 6.3 11.1 13.0
EBITDA (Rs m) 32,845 35,401 40,178 48,235
PAT (Rs m) 21,100 21,091 27,806 33,802
EPS (Rs) 105.7 105.6 139.2 169.3
Growth (%) (11.3) — 31.8 21.6
Net DPS (Rs) 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0
Profitability & Valuation 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
EBITDA margin (%) 13.8 14.0 14.3 15.2
RoE (%) 45.4 39.8 44.6 43.7
RoCE (%) 39.8 38.7 44.7 43.8
EV / sales (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6
EV / EBITDA (x) 15.4 14.3 12.5 10.3
PE (x) 24.0 24.0 18.2 15.0
P / BV (x) 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9
Net dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0
Source: Company Data; PL Research
July 10, 2014 2
Hero Motocorp
Product rollouts and R&D success: During 2013‐14, the R&D team successfully
delivered over 12 upgraded models in a domestic market and 7 variants for
global markets, mostly indigenously designed and developed. Commenced
construction of ‘Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research & Design (R&D)’
at Kukas, near Jaipur in Rajasthan, investing Rs4.5bn.
Expanding global footprints across geographies: HMCL expanded its global
footprint by launching brand “Hero” and its range of products in Central
America (Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador); South America (Peru & Ecuador);
East Africa (Kenya), West Africa (Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast) and most
recently Asia (Turkey & Egypt). Currently exports account for 2% of overall
volumes and 6% of domestic motorcycle volumes for HMCL. HMCL & Erik Buell
Racing (EBR) Alliance announced their collaboration as a multi‐strategy agenda
with the former looking to initiate new product development, R&D initiatives as
well as motorsport through a variety of such initiatives and partnerships. During
FY14, HMCL made its first ever investment in equity of Erik Buell Racing (EBR) for
an aggregate amount of USD 25m to acquire 49.2% holding in the company. This
will lend a visibility to Hero’s Brand in the American market. Hero is likely to
debut at AMA PRO RACING SUPERBIKE championships in the US on EBR 1190RS
bikes.
Other key highlights: Imported raw material accounted for 5.9% of the total
raw material cost as against 5.8% in FY13. Royalty increased to 0.5% of net sales
vs 0.2% in FY13 mainly led by new launches. On a per vehicle basis, the royalty
increased by 8.6% to Rs1,168. Advertising cost stable at 2% of net sales despite
increase in competitive intensity
Our volume estimates: Given the strong distribution reach and wider product
portfolio, including scooters, we believe, volumes could grow by ~9.0% in FY15E
and 10.5% in FY16E, thereby, maintaining its turf in the motorcycle segment
with a market share of 51.0%. HMSI is gaining market share at the cost of Bajaj
Auto and not HMCL. Our channel checks suggest strong traction for HMCL
products, both in scooters as well as motorcycle segments. Also, HMSI has not
been able to make a dent in the traditionally strong market for Hero (north).
Outlook & Valuation: Given the strong product portfolio and the initial success
of Splendor ‘iSmart’ (current production at 1200units / day), we believe Hero
Motocorp (HMCL) could surprise positively on the volume front. We expect a
12.1% CAGR in revenues with margins likely to expand by 120bps (given the
cost‐cutting initiatives). With scooter and export demand likely to be strong and
positive feedback on new products, we reiterate our positive stance on Hero
Motocorp. At the CMP, the stock trades at 18.5x FY15E EPS and 15.2x FY16E EPS,
which is attractive, given 26.7% CAGR in earnings over FY14‐FY16E period.
July 10, 2014 3
Hero Motocorp
Vision 2020
Surpass 100 million units in cumulative production
Annual bike and scooter sales of 12 million
More than 20 manufacturing and assembly plants globally
Presence in more than 50 countries
Turnover of Rs600bn by 2020.
Exhibit 1: Volumes to grow at 12% CAGR
5,402,444 6,075,583
6,836,796
8,885,100
12,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
FY11 FY13 FY15E FY17E FY20E
Volumes
Source: Company Data, PL Research
The main focus areas for the management over next 5 years
Launching new products and focusing on multiple product refreshes.
Focusing on the next big idea to accelerate the pace of innovation.
Collaborating with best‐in‐class technology partners to take technology
leadership to the next level.
Reinforcing customer‐connect programmes to understand better their everyday
experiences with the products and services.
Expanding across continents of Asia, Africa and South America
Setting into motion amazing customer experiences and creating value for all
stakeholders.
“2013‐14 was the culmination of two years
of ploughing and sowing. We created a
new identity, built our brand, developed a
technology ecosystem and injected a work
culture befitting a global corporation. All
being well, 2014‐15 will be the year in
which we are able to reap the harvest” –
Pawan Munjal, MD & CEO, HMCL
.
July 10, 2014 4
Hero Motocorp
Key quarterly achievements in FY14
Q1
Entered Africa and Central America with the launch of Brand Hero in these markets
First‐ever equity investment in an overseas firm; to buy 49.2% equity at Erik Buell
Racing (EBR) for US$ 25 Million
Launched the retail finance arm, Hero FinCorp, with a phase‐wise expansion plan
Q2
Became the first Indian two‐wheeler company to reach the historic milestone of 50
million units production
Introduced an innovative campaign titled ‘Hero Mileage’, capturing Hero’s best‐in‐
class fuel‐efficiency across its product range; and the tagline – ‘Thoda Extra
Kilometre Per Litre’ ‐ has gone on to become part of the youth lingo
Initiated project ‘Leap 20’ to bring very high levels of innovation across the supply
chain, and partnering with suppliers to drive significant improvements in cost
structure, even as they raise the bar even higher on product quality and reliability
Q3
Commenced construction of ‘Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research &
Design (R&D)’ at Kukas, near Jaipur in Rajasthan, investing Rs4.5bn
Forms new joint venture in partnership with Magneti Marelli to develop next‐gen
two‐wheeler fuelling systems
Registered 6.25 lakh sales in October 2013, first‐ever manufacturer to cross the
landmark 6 lakh unit sales in a month
Launched Splendor iSmart with ‘i3S Technology, Pleasure with Integrated Braking
System, Xtreme with ‘Electronic Immobiliser’ and Karizma & Karizma ZMR
Series of refreshes and variants of existing platforms, include HF Dawn & HF Deluxe,
Splendor Pro, Super Splendor, Passion Pro, HF Deluxe Eco, Glamour and Glamour FI
Q4
Entered Bangladesh and Turkey with an array of popular Hero motorcycles and
scooters
Launched India’s first‐ever warranty of five
years on all its two‐wheelers (5 years or
70,000 km on motorcycles)
Unveils 15 new offerings, with new‐gen
features including the all‐new Splendor
iSmart, Karizma R, ZMR, Xtreme and
Pleasure
July 10, 2014 5
Hero Motocorp
New Launches
Karizma ZMR Xtreme
Spelndor Pro Glamour FI
Splendor Ismart
July 10, 2014 7
Hero Motocorp
Volume projection
Given the strong distribution reach and wider product portfolio, including scooters,
we believe, volumes could grow by ~9.0% in FY15E and 10.5% in FY16E, thereby,
maintaining its turf in the motorcycle segment with a market share of 51.0%. HMSI is
gaining market share at the cost of Bajaj Auto and not HMCL. Our channel checks
suggest strong traction for HMCL products, both in scooters as well as motorcycle
segments. Also, HMSI has not been able to make a dent in the traditionally strong
market for Hero (north).
Exhibit 2: Scooter segment volume growth
SCOOTERS FY13 FY14 FY15E
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 549,808 690,079 806400
% gr. 25.5% 16.9%
MS (%) 18.8 19.2 18.5
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India 1,420,115 1,902,859 2378573.75
% gr. 34.0% 25.0%
MS (%) 48.6 52.8 54.5
TVS 424,183 456,975 571218.75
% gr. 7.7% 25.0%
MS (%) 14.5 12.7 13.1
TOTAL 2,923,424 3,602,744 4367442
Growth (%) 23.2% 21.2%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Exhibit 3: Motorcycle segment volume growth
MOTOR CYCLES FY13 FY14 FY15E
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 5,362,730 5,425,118 5,856,000
% gr. 1.2% 7.9%
MS (%) 53.2 51.8 51.1
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India 1,186,726 1,655,548 2,069,435
% gr. 39.5% 25.0%
MS (%) 11.8 15.8 18.1
Bajaj 2,463,862 2,099,230 2,235,680
% gr. ‐14.8% 6.5%
MS (%) 24.4 20.0 19.5
TVS 558,447 572,732 641,460
% gr. 2.6% 12.0%
MS (%) 5.5 5.5 5.6
TOTAL 10,085,000 10,479,817 11456150
Growth (%) 4% 9%
Source: Company Data, PL Research
July 10, 2014 8
Hero Motocorp
Product rollouts and R&D success
During FY14, the R&D team successfully delivered over 12 upgraded models in a
domestic market and 7 variants for global markets, mostly indigenously designed
and developed.
i‐Smart: With a mind of its own
The iSmart boasts of i3s technology (patented by Hero) that intuitively switches off
the engine when idle and switches it on as soon as the clutch is pressed.
Fuel Saving i3S Technology
Introduced the new i3S technology. i3S is a green technology that automatically
shuts the engine when idling and turns it on when needed, thus giving more mileage
in congested cities.
Consistent Innovation
Filed over 15 patents and registered/filed 77 designs, in FY14
Features of upcoming R&D facilities
Self‐sufficient facilities for New Product Design, Prototype manufacturing,
Testing and Validation
State‐of‐the‐art green building designed by international Architects & Design
consortium, using best of global technologies
Multiple Test Tracks to simulate all Indian and international test conditions
More than 600 engineers and support staff
Multiple Labs for design validation and product testing, material &
environmental testing, components / system performance & simulation, vehicle
performance & durability, noise vibration harshness (NVH) and emission &
electromagnetic compatibility (EMC)
Commenced construction of ‘Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research &
Design (R&D)’ at Kukas, near Jaipur in Rajasthan, investing Rs450 crores
July 10, 2014 9
Hero Motocorp
Expanding global footprints across geographies
Hero MotoCorp & Erik Buell Racing (EBR) Alliance have announced their
collaboration as a multi‐strategy agenda with the former looking to initiate new
product development, R&D initiatives as well as motorsport through a variety of
such initiatives and partnerships.
Also the Company expanded its global footprint by launching brand “Hero” and its
range of products in Central America (Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador); South
America (Peru & Ecuador); East Africa (Kenya), West Africa (Burkina Faso and Ivory
Coast) and most recently Asia (Turkey & Egypt).
HMCL recently announced the launch of operations in Turkey through a Distribution
Agreement with Asya Makina, subsidiary of Soysal Group to distribute Hero
MotoCorp two wheelers through its network of 50 outlets spread across Turkey. The
Company has established its International Assembly units at Kenya, Tanzania and
Uganda in East Africa.
During FY14, the Company entered into its first overseas Joint venture in Bangladesh
to set up a two‐wheeler manufacturing plant with Nitol Niloy group, in which the
Company will hold majority stake of 55%.
Hero MotoCorp has sewn up joint ventures in critical markets and has kick‐started
overseas assembly operations. The first such operation has come up in Kenya.
Separate equity ventures with local firms in Bangladesh and Columbia are also in
place.
During FY14, the Company exported130,763 units, compared to 161,043 units in the
previous year, resulting in a decrease of 18.8%. The Company also exported spare
parts worth Rs400m depicting an increase of 4.3% over the previous year.
Hero MotoCorp, with sales of over 130,763 units, accounted for 6% of motorcycle
exports from India. This share is likely to go up significantly in the coming years
Magneti Marelli JV
Partnered with Milan headquartered Magneti Marelli (MM) to bring key engine‐
related technology. The immediate focus will be developing and manufacturing next
generation fuelling systems and creating highly fuel‐efficient, environment‐friendly
modern engines for our customers.
Both Hero and MM will inject equity of US$ 8.5 million in the ratio of 60:40 over a
three‐year period. HMC MM Auto Ltd will also develop its own autonomous
Development Centre.
.During FY14, HMCL made its first ever
investment in equity of Erik Buell Racing
(EBR) for an aggregate amount of USD 25
m. This investment will acquire a 49.2%
holding in the invested Company. This will
lend a visibility to Hero’s Brand in the
American market. Hero is likely to debut at
AMA PRO RACING SUPERBIKE
championships in the US on EBR 1190RS
bikes.
2013‐14 was the culmination of two years
of ploughing and sowing. Created a new
identity, built our brand, developed a
technology ecosystem and injected a work
culture befitting a global corporation.
HMCL will hold 60% stake in the new entity
to be called HMC MM Auto Ltd and invest
US$ 27 million over the next 10 years.
July 10, 2014 10
Hero Motocorp
Income Statement (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Net Revenue 237,681 252,755 280,789 317,403
Raw Material Expenses 173,977 182,299 201,734 225,511
Gross Profit 63,705 70,456 79,055 91,892
Employee Cost 8,209 9,300 10,416 11,567
Other Expenses 22,650 25,755 28,461 32,090
EBITDA 32,845 35,401 40,178 48,235
Depr. & Amortization 11,418 11,074 7,071 7,707
Net Interest 120 118 100 80
Other Income 3,984 4,464 5,100 5,800
Profit before Tax 25,291 28,673 38,107 46,248
Total Tax 4,191 7,582 10,301 12,446
Profit after Tax 21,100 21,091 27,806 33,802
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — —
Adj. PAT 21,100 21,091 27,806 33,802
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 199.7 199.7 199.7 199.7
EPS (Rs.) 105.7 105.6 139.2 169.3
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
C/F from Operations 18,903 29,634 42,195 42,898
C/F from Investing (7,298) (16,193) (22,244) (25,039)
C/F from Financing (10,563) (14,076) (15,057) (16,216)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 1,042 (635) 4,894 1,643
Opening Cash 768 1,810 1,175 6,069
Closing Cash 1,810 1,175 6,069 7,711
FCFF 20,542 32,808 23,294 22,016
FCFE 20,162 32,808 23,294 22,016
Key Financial Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Growth
Revenue (%) 0.8 6.3 11.1 13.0
EBITDA (%) (8.9) 7.8 13.5 20.1
PAT (%) (11.3) — 31.8 21.6
EPS (%) (11.3) — 31.8 21.6
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.8 14.0 14.3 15.2
PAT Margin (%) 8.9 8.3 9.9 10.6
RoCE (%) 39.8 38.7 44.7 43.8
RoE (%) 45.4 39.8 44.6 43.7
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity — — (0.1) (0.1)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (16) (19) (19) (13)
Valuation
PER (x) 24.0 24.0 18.2 15.0
P / B (x) 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9
EV / EBITDA (x) 15.4 14.3 12.5 10.3
EV / Sales (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 16.6 26.4 27.0 26.9
Other Inc / PBT 15.8 15.6 13.4 12.5
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 17.1 16.0 8.1 7.1
FCFE / PAT 95.6 155.6 83.8 65.1
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Shareholder's Funds 50,062 55,999 68,589 86,017
Total Debt — — — —
Other Liabilities 4,346 (815) — —
Total Liabilities 54,408 55,183 68,589 86,017
Net Fixed Assets 31,331 30,974 42,444 55,278
Goodwill — — — —
Investments 36,238 40,888 44,888 48,888
Net Current Assets (13,161) (16,678) (18,743) (18,149)
Cash & Equivalents 1,810 1,175 6,069 7,711
Other Current Assets 27,037 26,877 28,755 34,666
Current Liabilities 42,008 44,730 53,566 60,526
Other Assets — — — —
Total Assets 54,408 55,183 68,589 86,017
Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15E
Net Revenue 57,262 68,758 65,130 69,827
EBITDA 8,327 8,980 8,942 9,934
% of revenue 14.5 13.1 13.7 14.2
Depr. & Amortization 2,869 2,732 2,728 2,800
Net Interest 30 30 29 29
Other Income 1,155 957 1,230 1,200
Profit before Tax 6,584 7,174 7,414 8,305
Total Tax 1,769 1,928 1,870 2,201
Profit after Tax 4,815 5,247 5,544 6,104
Adj. PAT 4,815 5,247 5,544 6,104
Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Total Vol. (nos) 6,075,583 6,245,895 6,836,796 7,546,491
Net Realization/Unit (Rs) 39,121 40,467 41,070 42,060
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 28,635 29,187 29,507 29,883
Other Exp./Unit (Rs) 3,728 4,123 4,163 4,252
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 5,406 5,668 5,877 6,392
Net Profit/Unit (Rs) 3,486 3,377 4,067 4,479
Components/Unit (Rs) 28,628 29,172 29,492 29,861
Emp. Cost (Rs m) 8,209 9,300 10,416 11,567
Advertising (Rs m) 4,687 4,935 5,756 6,665
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
July 10, 2014 11
Hero Motocorp
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Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
30.5%
50.5%
19.0%
0.0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
% of Total Coverage
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
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