headline verdana bold...source: nielsen total audience reports q1, q2, q3 and q4 for 2017, 2016,...

Headline Verdana Bold TMT Predictions 2018 The future is here

May 2018

Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 2

TMT Predictions was first published in 2001


TMT Predictions: report card

Rating Prediction

Prints charming: biometric security reaches the billions

DDoS attacks enter the terabit era

Safety first: the road to self-driving starts with a stop

5G: a revolution in evolution, even in 2017

Brains at the edge: machine learning goes mobile

Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted

Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far

Came true exactly as much as we predicted


TMT Predictions: report card

Rating Prediction

The great indoors: the final frontier for digital navigation

TV advertising in the US: flat is the new up

Have we reached peak tablet?

Vinyl: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche

IT-as-a-Service: the half-trillion-dollar ‘niche’

Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted

Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far

Came true exactly as much as we predicted

No score possible


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Total prediction accuracy


Gartner hype cycle for emerging technologies, 2017

Innovation trigger

Peak of inflated expectations

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Plateau will be reached in:

Less than 2 years

2 to 5 years

5 to 10 years

More than 10 years

Expectations

Time

Smart Dust

4D printing

Neuromorphic hardware

Edge computing

Smart workspace

Volumetric displays

Conversational user interfaces

Brain-computer interface

Virtual assistants

Commercial UAVs (drones)

IoT platform

Connected home Machine learning

Autonomous vehicles

Nanotube electronics

Cognitive computing

Blockchain

Enterprise taxonomy

and ontology management

Augmented reality

Virtual reality

As of July 2017

Artificial general intelligence

Deep reinforcement learning

Cognitive expert advisors

Software-defined security

Deep learning

Augmented data discovery

Smart robots

Human augmentation

Quantum computing

Digital twin

Serverless PaaS

5G

Source: Gartner (July 2017) © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.


$479

$160

$110

$180

$-

$100

$200

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$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

2017

Everything else

TV

PC

Smartphone81%

Global 2017 Hardware Sales by Category


TMT Predictions 2018 The future is here


Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality

Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018


©Ikea


The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation

Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2023


$378

$331

$310 $305 $306

$328

$350

$0

$50

$100

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$350

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017A 2023F

Evolution of the smartphone’s average selling price, 2012-17, and 2023

Source: Deloitte TMT Predictions 2018


Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips

Deloitte Global predicts that


Whenever there

is a revolution

in machine

learning chips…

…there is

ALWAYS a

revolution in

machine learning.


Deep learning inference performance per watt

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC

Note: FP16 inference

performance for NVIDIA Volta, INT8 for other chips.


Silicon alternatives for DNNs (Deep Neural Networks)


Annual minimum sales of ML chips in global data centres (units)


1. Automate tasks

2. Data reduction

3. Better chips

4. Model interpretability

5. Local machine learning

The five vectors of progress on machine learning


A 288 µW Programmable Deep-Learning Processor with 270KB On-Chip Weight Storage

Using Non-Uniform Memory Hierarchy for Mobile Intelligence

Suyoung Bang1, Jingcheng Wang1, Aiun Li1,Cao Gao1, Yejoong King1,2, Qing Dong1,Yen-Po Chen1, Lara Fick1, Xun Sun1,Ron Dreslinski1, Trevor Mudge1,Hun Seok Kim1, David Blaauw1, Dennis Sylvester1

1University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

2Cubeworks, Ann Arbor, MI

14.7: A 288 µW Programmable Deep-Learning Processor with 270KB On-Chip Weight Using Non-Uniform Memory Hierarchy for Mobile Intelligence

© 2017 IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference


Machine learning: things are getting intense



Live thrives in an online world



Digital media: the subscription prescription

Deloitte Global predicts that there will be


Ad blocking by category


#adlergic


Ad blocking by category


Demographics of those blocking four or more types of advertising


Share of platform time spent by age

Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform & Mobile Metrix, U.S., Age 18+, June 2017


0

50

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2014 2015 2016 2017

Time-shifted

Live

US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1

Source: Nielsen


Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2017, 2016, 2015, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

-

50

100

150

200

250

Daily Minutes (live and time shifted) Annual change - right hand axis

US TV viewing by 18-24 year-olds, 2010–2017


Live and time-shifted viewing by young viewers in US, Canada, and UK, 2011–2017

Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2016, 2015, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sweden 15-24 Norway 20-29 Denmark 19-34 Finland 15-24

Live and time-shifted viewing by young viewers in Nordics, 2011–2016


174 quarters of TV viewing annual changes in Nordics+UK/US/Canada 2011–2017, 18-24 years old

46

115

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Annual change of>-5%

annual change of-5% to -15%

Annual change of< -15%


0

50

100

150

200

250

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450

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 65+ 2016 65+ 2017 65+

Time-shifted

Live

(and 65+)

US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1

Source: Nielsen


Which, if any, is your preferred device for each of the following activities?

Canada Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75

Watch live TV TV 67% TV 67% TV 67% TV 59% TV 63% TV 68% TV 72% TV 71% TV 68%

Watch TV programs via catch-up services TV 39% TV 39% TV 39% TV 37% TV 40% TV 44% TV 42% TV 38% TV 27%

Stream films and/or TV series TV 40% TV 38% TV 41% PC 39% TV 47% TV 45% TV 39% TV 37% TV 31%

Watch short videos PC 48% PC 52% PC 44% PC 41% PC 44% PC 42% PC 52% PC 52% PC 56%

Online search PC 65% PC 71% PC 60% PC 49% PC 59% PC 60% PC 71% PC 73% PC 76%

Browse shopping websites PC 63% PC 67% PC 60% PC 58% PC 62% PC 60% PC 66% PC 69% PC 64%

Make online purchases PC 67% PC 71% PC 64% PC 61% PC 66% PC 66% PC 73% PC 71% PC 64%

Check bank balances PC 54% PC 60% PC 48% Phone 56% PC 46% PC 51% PC 56% PC 67% PC 65%

Read the news PC 42% PC 47% PC 37% Phone 35% PC/Phone 37% PC 41% PC 48% PC 51% PC 40%

Video calls PC 29% PC 30% PC 27% PC/Phone 34% Phone 32% Phone 25% PC 27% PC 33% PC 27%

Check social networks PC 37% PC 42% Phone 41% Phone 67% Phone 54% Phone 45% PC 47% PC 46% PC 46%

Play games PC 26% PC 29% Phone 27% Phone 40% Phone 29% Phone 26% PC 29% PC 33% PC 37%

Record videos Phone 47% Phone 44% Phone 50% Phone 69% Phone 63% Phone 57% Phone 42% Phone 25% Phone 18%

Take photos Phone 74% Phone 72% Phone 75% Phone 82% Phone 82% Phone 79% Phone 76% Phone 60% Phone 56%

Voice calls using the Internet Phone 28% Phone 28% Phone 29% Phone 46% Phone 41% Phone 34% Phone 23% PC/Phone 14% Tablet 13%

PC (desktop or laptop) (70.5/135) 52.5%

Phone (37.5/135) 27.8%

TV (26/135) 21.7%

Tablet (1/135) 0.7%


Data mobile-only population in selected countries, 2017


Data mobile-only population for highest and lowest income groups, 2017


Data mobile-only population for oldest and youngest, 2017


TMT Predictions: tailored events

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