Headline Verdana Bold TMT Predictions 2018 The future is here
May 2018
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 2
TMT Predictions was first published in 2001
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 3
TMT Predictions: report card
Rating Prediction
Prints charming: biometric security reaches the billions
DDoS attacks enter the terabit era
Safety first: the road to self-driving starts with a stop
5G: a revolution in evolution, even in 2017
Brains at the edge: machine learning goes mobile
Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted
Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far
Came true exactly as much as we predicted
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 4
TMT Predictions: report card
Rating Prediction
The great indoors: the final frontier for digital navigation
TV advertising in the US: flat is the new up
Have we reached peak tablet?
Vinyl: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche
IT-as-a-Service: the half-trillion-dollar ‘niche’
Legend Didn’t come true as we predicted
Came true, but less than we predicted. At least so far
Came true exactly as much as we predicted
No score possible
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
Total prediction accuracy
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 6
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 7
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 8
Gartner hype cycle for emerging technologies, 2017
Innovation trigger
Peak of inflated expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Plateau will be reached in:
Less than 2 years
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
More than 10 years
Expectations
Time
Smart Dust
4D printing
Neuromorphic hardware
Edge computing
Smart workspace
Volumetric displays
Conversational user interfaces
Brain-computer interface
Virtual assistants
Commercial UAVs (drones)
IoT platform
Connected home Machine learning
Autonomous vehicles
Nanotube electronics
Cognitive computing
Blockchain
Enterprise taxonomy
and ontology management
Augmented reality
Virtual reality
As of July 2017
Artificial general intelligence
Deep reinforcement learning
Cognitive expert advisors
Software-defined security
Deep learning
Augmented data discovery
Smart robots
Human augmentation
Quantum computing
Digital twin
Serverless PaaS
5G
Source: Gartner (July 2017) © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 9
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 10
$479
$160
$110
$180
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
2017
Everything else
TV
PC
Smartphone81%
Global 2017 Hardware Sales by Category
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 11
TMT Predictions 2018 The future is here
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 12
Augmented reality: on the cusp of reality
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 13
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 14
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 15
©Ikea
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 16
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 17
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 18
The future of the smartphone: the era of invisible innovation
Deloitte Global predicts that by the end of 2023
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 19
$378
$331
$310 $305 $306
$328
$350
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017A 2023F
Evolution of the smartphone’s average selling price, 2012-17, and 2023
Source: Deloitte TMT Predictions 2018
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 20
Hitting the accelerator: the next generation of machine-learning chips
Deloitte Global predicts that
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 21
Whenever there
is a revolution
in machine
learning chips…
…there is
ALWAYS a
revolution in
machine learning.
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 22
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 23
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 24
Deep learning inference performance per watt
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC
Note: FP16 inference
performance for NVIDIA Volta, INT8 for other chips.
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 25
Silicon alternatives for DNNs (Deep Neural Networks)
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 26
Annual minimum sales of ML chips in global data centres (units)
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 27
1. Automate tasks
2. Data reduction
3. Better chips
4. Model interpretability
5. Local machine learning
The five vectors of progress on machine learning
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 28
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 29
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 30
A 288 µW Programmable Deep-Learning Processor with 270KB On-Chip Weight Storage
Using Non-Uniform Memory Hierarchy for Mobile Intelligence
Suyoung Bang1, Jingcheng Wang1, Aiun Li1,Cao Gao1, Yejoong King1,2, Qing Dong1,Yen-Po Chen1, Lara Fick1, Xun Sun1,Ron Dreslinski1, Trevor Mudge1,Hun Seok Kim1, David Blaauw1, Dennis Sylvester1
1University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
2Cubeworks, Ann Arbor, MI
14.7: A 288 µW Programmable Deep-Learning Processor with 270KB On-Chip Weight Using Non-Uniform Memory Hierarchy for Mobile Intelligence
© 2017 IEEE International Solid-State Circuits Conference
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 31
Machine learning: things are getting intense
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 32
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 33
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 34
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 35
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 36
Live thrives in an online world
Deloitte Global predicts that in 2018
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 37
Digital media: the subscription prescription
Deloitte Global predicts that there will be
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 38
Ad blocking by category
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 39
#adlergic
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 40
Ad blocking by category
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 41
Demographics of those blocking four or more types of advertising
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 42
Share of platform time spent by age
Source: comScore Media Metrix Multi-Platform & Mobile Metrix, U.S., Age 18+, June 2017
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 43
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 44
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014 2015 2016 2017
Time-shifted
Live
US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1
Source: Nielsen
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 45
Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2017, 2016, 2015, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
-
50
100
150
200
250
Daily Minutes (live and time shifted) Annual change - right hand axis
US TV viewing by 18-24 year-olds, 2010–2017
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 46
Live and time-shifted viewing by young viewers in US, Canada, and UK, 2011–2017
Source: Nielsen Total Audience Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2016, 2015, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 47
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden 15-24 Norway 20-29 Denmark 19-34 Finland 15-24
Live and time-shifted viewing by young viewers in Nordics, 2011–2016
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 48
174 quarters of TV viewing annual changes in Nordics+UK/US/Canada 2011–2017, 18-24 years old
46
115
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Annual change of>-5%
annual change of-5% to -15%
Annual change of< -15%
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 49
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 65+ 2016 65+ 2017 65+
Time-shifted
Live
(and 65+)
US daily traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1
Source: Nielsen
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 50
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 51
Which, if any, is your preferred device for each of the following activities?
Canada Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75
Watch live TV TV 67% TV 67% TV 67% TV 59% TV 63% TV 68% TV 72% TV 71% TV 68%
Watch TV programs via catch-up services TV 39% TV 39% TV 39% TV 37% TV 40% TV 44% TV 42% TV 38% TV 27%
Stream films and/or TV series TV 40% TV 38% TV 41% PC 39% TV 47% TV 45% TV 39% TV 37% TV 31%
Watch short videos PC 48% PC 52% PC 44% PC 41% PC 44% PC 42% PC 52% PC 52% PC 56%
Online search PC 65% PC 71% PC 60% PC 49% PC 59% PC 60% PC 71% PC 73% PC 76%
Browse shopping websites PC 63% PC 67% PC 60% PC 58% PC 62% PC 60% PC 66% PC 69% PC 64%
Make online purchases PC 67% PC 71% PC 64% PC 61% PC 66% PC 66% PC 73% PC 71% PC 64%
Check bank balances PC 54% PC 60% PC 48% Phone 56% PC 46% PC 51% PC 56% PC 67% PC 65%
Read the news PC 42% PC 47% PC 37% Phone 35% PC/Phone 37% PC 41% PC 48% PC 51% PC 40%
Video calls PC 29% PC 30% PC 27% PC/Phone 34% Phone 32% Phone 25% PC 27% PC 33% PC 27%
Check social networks PC 37% PC 42% Phone 41% Phone 67% Phone 54% Phone 45% PC 47% PC 46% PC 46%
Play games PC 26% PC 29% Phone 27% Phone 40% Phone 29% Phone 26% PC 29% PC 33% PC 37%
Record videos Phone 47% Phone 44% Phone 50% Phone 69% Phone 63% Phone 57% Phone 42% Phone 25% Phone 18%
Take photos Phone 74% Phone 72% Phone 75% Phone 82% Phone 82% Phone 79% Phone 76% Phone 60% Phone 56%
Voice calls using the Internet Phone 28% Phone 28% Phone 29% Phone 46% Phone 41% Phone 34% Phone 23% PC/Phone 14% Tablet 13%
PC (desktop or laptop) (70.5/135) 52.5%
Phone (37.5/135) 27.8%
TV (26/135) 21.7%
Tablet (1/135) 0.7%
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 52
Data mobile-only population in selected countries, 2017
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 53
Data mobile-only population for highest and lowest income groups, 2017
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 54
Data mobile-only population for oldest and youngest, 2017
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 55
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 56
Join the #DeloittePredicts conversation © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities. 57
TMT Predictions: tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office or industry. Contact him to find out more.
• Email Duncan: [email protected]
• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart
• Connect on LinkedIn
• Connect on Facebook
• Instagram -- #whynot?
Deloitte, one of Canada's leading professional services firms, provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services. Deloitte LLP, an Ontario limited liability partnership, is the Canadian member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.
© Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.