hdfc securities retail research markets & macros

HDFC securities Retail Research

Markets &MacrosChart Book - June 2020

Markets & Macros

Markets in May

Markets in May – Indian Index & Currency Underperform

Markets & Macros Source: Bloomberg, HDFC securities Retail Research

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%B

razi

l Ib

ove

spa

Ru

ssia

n R

TS

Nik

kei 2

25

Nas

daq

DA

X

MSC

I Wo

rld

Ind

ex

S&P

50

0

Do

w J

on

es In

d. A

vg.

MSC

I EM

Ind

ex

Ko

spi

FTSE

10

0

CA

C 4

0

Shan

ghai

Co

mp

osi

te

Taiw

an T

aie

x

Nif

ty 5

0

BSE

Se

nse

x

Han

g Se

ng

-10%-8%

-4%-3%-3%

-2%-2%

-1%-1%

-1%1%

1%1%

2%6%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Bank

Sensex

RealEstate

Small Cap

IT

Metal

Capital Goods

Auto

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Bre

nt

Cru

de

Oil

($/b

bl)

Nat

ura

l Gas

($/m

mB

tu)

Silv

er

($/o

z.)

Go

ld (

$/o

z.)

LME

Co

pp

er (

$/M

T)

LME

Alu

min

ium

($/M

T)

LME

Zin

c ($

/MT)

LME

Lead

($

/MT)

LME

Nic

kel (

$/M

T)

ICE

Suga

r ($

/lb

.0

CB

OT

Co

rn (

$/b

u.)

ICE

Co

tto

n (

$/l

b.)

CB

OT

Wh

eat

($

/bu

)

CB

OT

Soyb

ean

($

/bu

.)

ICE

Co

ffe

e ($

/lb

.)

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Me

xica

n P

eso

Sou

th A

fric

a R

and

Ind

on

esi

a R

up

iah

Bra

zilia

n R

eal

Au

stra

lia D

olla

r

Thai

lan

d B

aht

Euro

Can

ada

Do

llar

Ph

ilip

pin

es P

eso

Ho

ngk

on

g D

olla

r

Sin

gap

ore

Do

llar

Jap

anes

e Y

en

Ind

ian

Ru

pe

e

Taiw

an D

olla

r

Ch

ine

se R

enm

inb

i

Mal

aysi

a R

ingg

it

Ko

rean

Wo

n

Bri

tish

Po

un

d

Fear Subsides Across The Board


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Emerging Markets - CBOE EM ETF Vol Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

US Bond Markets -MOVE Index US Equity Markets - VIX Index

Indian Markets - India VIX Index

Asian Stocks Lag Global Peers


Commodity Prices Stabilize But International Trade Volumes Plunge


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

CRB Commodity Index

Monthly Average Line

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

126

128

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

CPB Wolrd Trade Volume Index(2010=100)

Monthly Average Line

Commodity To Equity Ratio Falls To New Record Lows


Stronger Dollar , Emerging Market Currencies weakens


1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20

MSCI EM Currency Index

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17 Jan/18 Jan/19 Jan/20

DXY Index

Rupee Weakens against Major Currencies


60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

USDINR

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

EURINR

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

GBPINR

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

JPYINR

Record Forex Reserves & REER To Suggest Limited Downside In Rupee


300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

$ B

illio

n

India Forex Reserve

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

India REER Currency

G-Sec Trend lower, Widening Spread Between G-Sec and Corp Bonds


5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

Jan

/15

May

/15

Sep

/15

Jan

/16

May

/16

Sep

/16

Jan

/17

May

/17

Sep

/17

Jan

/18

May

/18

Sep

/18

Jan

/19

May

/19

Sep

/19

Jan

/20

May

/20

India 10 Year Bond Yield

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

Jan

/15

May

/15

Sep

/15

Jan

/16

May

/16

Sep

/16

Jan

/17

May

/17

Sep

/17

Jan

/18

May

/18

Sep

/18

Jan

/19

May

/19

Sep

/19

Jan

/20

May

/20

Corporate AAA Bond Yield

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan

/15

May

/15

Sep

/15

Jan

/16

May

/16

Sep

/16

Jan

/17

May

/17

Sep

/17

Jan

/18

May

/18

Sep

/18

Jan

/19

May

/19

Sep

/19

Jan

/20

May

/20

Corporate AAA bond vs 10 YrGSec Spread

Central Bankers Add Gold & Trim US Treasuries


IMF World Reserve Gold HoldingsGlobal Holdings of US Treasury

Foreigners Turn Tentative Buyers In Equity & Debt In May


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Jan

/17

Feb

/17

Mar

/17

Ap

r/1

7

May

/17

Jun

/17

Jul/

17

Au

g/1

7

Sep

/17

Oct

/17

No

v/1

7

Dec

/17

Jan

/18

Feb

/18

Mar

/18

Ap

r/1

8

May

/18

Jun

/18

Jul/

18

Au

g/1

8

Sep

/18

Oct

/18

No

v/1

8

Dec

/18

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

India FIII Equity Flows ($mln)

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Jan

/17

Feb

/17

Mar

/17

Ap

r/1

7

May

/17

Jun

/17

Jul/

17

Au

g/1

7

Sep

/17

Oct

/17

No

v/1

7

Dec

/17

Jan

/18

Feb

/18

Mar

/18

Ap

r/1

8

May

/18

Jun

/18

Jul/

18

Au

g/1

8

Sep

/18

Oct

/18

No

v/1

8

Dec

/18

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

India FII Debt Flows ($mln)

Light leveraged Positions - Room for markets to Grow

HDFC securities Retail Research

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Feb

-05

Sep

-05

Ap

r-0

6

No

v-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec

-10

Jul-

11

Feb

-12

Sep

-12

Ap

r-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

Mar

-16

Oct

-16

May

-17

Dec

-17

Jul-

18

Feb

-19

Sep

-19

Ap

r-2

0

Nifty Futures' Open Interest(No Cr)

2000

7000

12000

17000

22000

27000

Feb

-05

Sep

-05

Ap

r-0

6

No

v-0

6

Jun

-07

Jan

-08

Au

g-0

8

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec

-10

Jul-

11

Feb

-12

Sep

-12

Ap

r-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jun

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

Mar

-16

Oct

-16

May

-17

Dec

-17

Jul-

18

Feb

-19

Sep

-19

Ap

r-2

0

Nifty Futures' Open Interest(Rs Cr)

Nifty Futures Open Interest At Multi Year Low

Source: NSE, HDFC securities Retail Research

Light Leveraged Positions - Weaker Hands Are Out Of The Markets

HDFC securities Retail Research Source: NSE, HSL Research

50

100

150

200

Jan

-07

Feb

-07

Mar

-07

Ap

r-0

7

May

-07

Jun

-07

Jul-

07

Au

g-0

7

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

No

v-0

7

Dec

-07

Jan

-08

Feb

-08

Mar

-08

Ap

r-0

8

May

-08

Jun

-08

Jul-

08

Au

g-0

8

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

No

v-0

8

Dec

-08

Jan

-09

Feb

-09

Mar

-09

Ap

r-0

9

May

-09

Jun

-09

Jul-

09

Stock Futures' Open Interest In 2007-08

60% Fall Before Markets bottoms out In Oct 2008

0100200300400500600

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Stock Futures' Open Interest( No Of Shares Cr) 55% Fall Before Markets bottoms out In March 2020

Extreme Oversold Breadth Suggests Market Bottomed out In March


2008 2011 2016 2018 20202013

2008

20112013

2016

2018

2020BSE500 Monthly Price Charts

BSE All Stocks

Bottom Date Of

Bear TrendStocks below 200 DMA

23-Mar-20 89%

26-Oct-18 86%

26-Feb-16 79%

20-Dec-11 91%

09-Mar-09 98%

17-May-04 75%

25-Apr-03 63%

21-Sep-01 94%

Number of 52 Weeks Highs V/S 52 Weeks Low Indicates Market Breadth has discounted its Worst in 2018 itself


2008 2018 2020

Number of 52 Weeks Highs V/S 52 Weeks Low Indicates Market Breadth has discounted Worst in 2018 itself


Banks Underperform and Pharma Outperform

Relative Strength of Bank Nifty Against Nifty

Nifty Pharma Monthly ChartNifty Bank Monthly Chart

Relative Strength of Pharma Against Nifty

Trend Breakout

Trend Breakdown

Trend Breakout

Trend Breakdown

Brisk Business on Bourses


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

Oct

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Ap

r/2

0

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

May

/20

India NSE BSE Combined Turnover

Indai NSE BSE Combined Turnover($mln) One Month Avg. Turnover ($mln)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

India NSE BSE Combined Delivery Volume

Delivery Percentage NSE BSE Combined Delivery Volume mln

Retail SIP Flows Remain Robust Despite Market Rout

Markets & Macros Source: AMFI, HDFC securities Retail Research

New SIPs at 12 months low Monthly SIP flow

910 9

10

9 9

1011

10

1211

88

5 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 65

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

New SIPs SIPs Discontinued

#Lacs

67

75.5

80 80.682.4 83.2 82.5

85.3 83.8

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20

Rs bn


%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

50.1 49.8 50.4 49 50.5

22 21.9 21.3 21.8 21

12.3 12.4 13 13.9 14.8

15.6 15.8 15.4 15.3 13.8

Promoters' FIIs DIIs Public

Foreign holding at 5 years lows

Markets & Macros

Macro in May

COVID-19 Relief Package - Too Little & Too Late ?


Other 1%

Health 1%

Agriculture 19%

Housing3%

MSME18%

NBFC4%

Power4%

Monetary and liquidity

measures by RBI38%

Welfare measures

8% MNREGA2%

Delay in tax payment

obligation for few months

2%

Guarantees19%

Actual impact of FD

of FY219%

Liquidity measures by

RBI38%

Credit Facilities19%

Other15%

Break-up Of Economic Package

Annual GDP Growth Falls To The Lowest Since FY01

Markets & Macros Source: Gov. of India, HDFC securities Retail Research

5.1

7.3

8.7 8.9

7.1

6.2

5.6 5.8

5.2

4.44.1

3.1

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q2FY20

Q3FY20

Q4FY20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

FY0

1

FY0

2

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0

Quarterly GDP Growth Falls To The Lowest Since Q4FY09Annual GDP Growth Falls To The Lowest Since FY01

India’s External Trade Plunge

Markets & Macros Source: Gov. Of India, HDFC securities Retail Research

Export & Import YoY % Trade Balance (in $ mn)

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Feb

/18

Ap

r/18

Jun

/18

Au

g/18

Oct

/18

De

c/18

Feb

/19

Ap

r/19

Jun

/19

Au

g/19

Oct

/19

De

c/19

Feb

/20

Ap

r/20

EXPORTS YOY IMPORT YOY

-20000

-18000

-16000

-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

Feb

/18

Ap

r/18

Jun

/18

Au

g/18

Oct

/18

De

c/1

8

Feb

/19

Ap

r/19

Jun

/19

Au

g/19

Oct

/19

De

c/1

9

Feb

/20

Ap

r/20

India’s Industrial Activities Slumps


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Au

g/1

8

Sep

/18

Oct

/18

No

v/1

8

Dec

/18

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Coal

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Au

g/1

8

Sep

/18

Oct

/18

No

v/1

8

Dec

/18

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Electricity

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Au

g/1

8

Oct

/18

Dec

/18

Feb

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jun

/19

Au

g/1

9

Oct

/19

Dec

/19

Feb

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Fertilizers

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Au

g/1

8

Sep

/18

Oct

/18

No

v/1

8

Dec

/18

Jan

/19

Feb

/19

Mar

/19

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0Refinery Products

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Au

g/1

8

Oct

/18

De

c/1

8

Feb

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jun

/19

Au

g/1

9

Oct

/19

De

c/1

9

Feb

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Steel & Cement

Steel Cement

-25-20-15-10

-505

10

Au

g/1

8

Oct

/18

De

c/1

8

Feb

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jun

/19

Au

g/1

9

Oct

/19

De

c/1

9

Feb

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Purchasing Managers Index – Recovering after the lockdown plunge


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Mfg. PMI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Service PMI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May

/18

Jul/

18

Sep

/18

No

v/1

8

Jan

/19

Mar

/19

May

/19

Jul/

19

Sep

/19

No

v/1

9

Jan

/20

Mar

/20

May

/20

Composite PMI

Subdued Growth in Bank Credit

Markets & Macros Source: RBI, HDFC securities Retail Research

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

De

c/1

9

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Gross Bank Credit

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

De

c/1

9

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Food Credit

456789

10111213

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

De

c/1

9

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Non-food Credit

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

De

c/1

9

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Personal Loans

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ap

r/1

9

May

/19

Jun

/19

Jul/

19

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

De

c/1

9

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

Agriculture Credit Industry Credit Services Credit


-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

India Current Account Deficit (Rs. 10 mln)

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

Jan

/15

Ap

r/1

5

Jul/

15

Oct

/15

Jan

/16

Ap

r/1

6

Jul/

16

Oct

/16

Jan

/17

Ap

r/1

7

Jul/

17

Oct

/17

Jan

/18

Ap

r/1

8

Jul/

18

Oct

/18

Jan

/19

Ap

r/1

9

Jul/

19

Oct

/19

Jan

/20

Ap

r/2

0

India Fiscal Deficit (Rs.10 mln)

Downgrade As Deficits Deteriorated, Moody’s Downgraded India’s Ratings


Liquidity Vs Economic Activity ( Do not Fight the Fed !)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Mill

ion

s

Money Printing vs Economic Activity

US Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets (L1) US Federal Reserve Bank of New York Weekly Economic Index (WEI) (R1)

Despite Lower Economic Activities - Liquidity Is Driving Asset Prices Higher

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