has off-grid electrification come of age?

evaluations that matter

Has Off-Grid Electrification

Come of Age?

Ramachandra Jammi

02.21.2017

3

Taking stock of the Electricity Access Gap

Others Sub-Saharan Africa

40

11

Low-Access Countries 1 billion people with

no access to electricity

591 million people now

in Sub-Saharan Africa

993 million people by

2030 in Sub-Saharan

Africa

Without Electricity Access

4

Taking stock of the Electricity Access Gap

…And yet another generation in Sub-

Saharan Africa will be denied the potential

opportunities provided by electricity access.

5

The World Bank Group’s Response

20122013

GLOBAL INITIATIVE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030

BANK GROUP’S DIRECTIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR “Grid, mini-grid, and off-grid solutions will all be pursued for electricity. They are not mutually exclusive and can be implemented in parallel or, under specific conditions, in sequence.”

6

Unpacking Off-Grid Electrification

Pico-solar photovoltaic charging products: Typically for lighting, cell

phone charging, radio

Individual systems: Typically rooftop solar home systems (SHS)

• household-sized systems

• larger systems for small community needs

Isolated network systems with generation plants

• Microgrids: diesel, hydro, biomass, photovoltaic, wind, or

hybrids

• Minigrid: larger systems that handle water pumping, processing

PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST

• Access to even small quantities of modern electricity is

transformative for the unconnected.

• Over time, people’s expectations for higher levels of access

tend to grow.

• Off-grid options have a crucial ‘pre-electrification’ role until

grid-quality electricity arrives…

• Dynamic transition from lack of access to pre-electrification

to grid-quality electricity needs comprehensive planning, and

staged implementation.

7

Journey Towards Universal Access

8

Global Tracking Framework distinguishes

five levels (Tiers) of access

Global Tracking Framework distinguishes five levels (tiers) of access: Tier 1 and Tier 2 market segments

that typify the first hugely transformative step for basic access…climbing up to Tiers 3, 4 and 5; with Tier 5

requiring grid-quality electricity

9

Catalyzing Off-grid Markets - Pivotal

Achievements Supported by WBG

PRE-ELECTRIFICATION SCALE-UP: BANGLADESH

• Installed 750,000 rooftop Solar Home Systems

(SHS) by 2010;

• Rising exponentially to a cumulative 4 million by 2016

(12% of country population);

• Responded to then-stalled grid expansion

BA

NG

LA

DE

SH

Catalyzing off-grid markets –

Pivotal WBG-supported achievements

10

RAPID MARKET PENETRATION OF SOLAR PRODUCTS FOR ACCESS TIERS 1 AND

2: THE LIGHTING AFRICA AND LIGHTING GLOBAL PROGRAMS

• More than 100 companies have sold over 14 million quality-certified pico-solar products.

• This has lifted 21 million people in Africa and Asia to Tier 1 of the energy ladder.

• IFC and World Bank’s Lighting Africa program and its successor, the Lighting Global program pioneered and ramped up this phenomenon through well-designed and targeted technical assistance for quality assurance and service delivery.

• Cost-effective support: Value of products sold is several multiple orders of magnitude higher than relatively small outlay of Lighting Africa and Lighting Global programs.

11



STAGED PRE-ELECTRIFICATION: SRI LANKA

• 268 village mini-hydro projects between 1997 and

2011 (serving 20 to 80 households each)

• As the Ceylon Electricity Board’s Grid expanded, per plan,

around 70 mini-hydros have been integrated with

the grid.

SR

I L

AN

KA

12



REMOTE AREA ELECTRIFICATION

• Argentina: 30,000 households (about 0.3 % of the

population in a universal access country)

• Peru: 100,000 households in remote and isolated

areas (about 1.6 % of the population, mostly living in

remote areas in a high access country)

AR

GE

NT

INA

PE

RU

13



NOMADIC POPULATION ELECTRIFICATION

Mongolia: covered 85 percent of nomadic herder

population with reliable supply chain sales and service

centers numbers.

MO

NG

OL

IA

14

Mini and Micro-grids Activities

The World Bank Group supported minigrids on a

significant scale in a few countries (Nepal, Sri Lanka,

Mali, and Cambodia). Other relatively smaller efforts

were made in Bangladesh, Mongolia, and Vietnam.

Efforts are underway in Tanzania for a commercially

oriented larger-scale off-grid program scale-up,

leveraging private sector resources and promoting small-

scale power projects.

IFC’s review of business models for mini and micro-

grids concludes that this subsector holds real potential

and merits greater attention of operating companies,

policymakers and investors.

15

Towards Planned and Coordinated National

Grid and Off-grid Rollout Implementation for

Universal Access

Approach pioneered by WB in Rwanda and Kenya, and

underway in Myanmar marks a major break from piecemeal

electrification activities and initiatives

Anchored by a comprehensive least-cost geospatial plan

which:

• Serves to locate and target beneficiaries geospatially

• Enables least-cost placement and expansion of

electricity access infrastructure.

• Guides a dynamically coordinated strategic-level

rollout in space and time.

16

Rwanda’s Geospatial Electrification Rollout

Plan Stage 1 and 2

17

Leveraging the Geospatial least-cost Rollout Plan

for Syndicated Investment Financing

Access rollout toward universal access requires sustained

financing over two decades for most low access countries

• The national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan

serves to anchor and foster closer alignment of multiple and

varied donor programs with national priorities.

• It also facilitates and directs financing support (syndication)

of the investment prospectus on-grid or off-grid and in space

and time.

• When backed by appropriate government policy and

regulatory environment, can attract wider range of donors

and private sector sources.

18

Rwanda: Development Partner Pledges

Development Partner Financing amount (US$, million)

Programmed donor contribution

World Bank and Global Environment Facility

Dutch government

Japan International Cooperation Agency

African Development Bank

Committed donor funding (off-grid)

European Commission

New partners

Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa

OPEC Fund for International Development

Saudi fund

Government contribution ($10m/yr.)

ELGZ

Customers

TOTAL FINANCING

78

45

25

50

35

10

10

10

50

27

27

357

Rwanda: Prospectus Donor Financing Round Table 2009-2014

19

Visible Progress: Rwanda’s 100% coverage

of public facilities nationwide ahead of

schedule

Rwanda: Access provided to public facilities (%)

InstitutionsBaseline

APR ’09 SEPT ‘12 SEPT ‘13 SEPT ‘14

Target

‘16

Actual

DEC ‘15

Off-Grid

Share

Schools 21 35 37 37 80 100 54

Administrative

Centers39 56 59 59 100 100 10

Health Centers,

Hospitals38 53 57 57 100 100 16

Kenya: Similar progress is noted; Myanmar: Underway

20

Strategic Lessons/Implications for Operations

in Low Access Countries

Putting People (Beneficiaries) First, Not Technology

Solutions

• Time is of the essence. Deploy the most appropriate

technology to provide at least basic access quickly.

• Plan for the fact that over time, almost all aspire to electricity

services comparable to that of a of a well-managed utility-run

grid system.

21



Grid versus Off-Grid:

A Falsely Framed Binary Choice

• Grid and off-grid technologies and access service delivery are not

necessarily either-or options.

• Off-grid and grid combination plays out differently in different country

contexts.

• Off-grid electrification has a significant role in most low-access

countries in the near future.

22



Private and Public Sector: both have a role to play in

Tier 1 and 2 markets

WBG’s combined strengths come together for the benefit of low access

countries for:

• Catalyzing and enabling early stage (“pre-market") development

• Designing the participation of the private and public sectors working in

close partnership.

• Off-grid electrification has come of age in the Tier 1 and Tier 2

categories of electricity access.

• Universal access in low access countries calls for comprehensive national

plans for coordinated off-grid and grid and electrification in space

and time.

• A national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan also serves to align donor

programs with national priorities and to syndicate financing from

wider public and private sources.

23

What Works


Has Off-Grid Electrification

Come of Age?

Join the conversation on Twitter #Goal7Ramachandra Jammi

02.21.2017

http://ieg.worldbankgroup

.org/evaluations/offgrid-

electricity-services

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/offgrid-electricity-services

http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/offgrid-electricity-services

has off-grid electrification come of age?

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