Growing The U.S. Livestock Economy: The Environmental (Phosphorous Assimilation) Challenge

Tyler Mark, Louisiana State University

Mike Boehlje, Allan Gray, and Brad Joern, Purdue University

Department of Agricultural Economics

Objective

Is livestock growth on a per state basis feasible according to a strict phosphorus application standard for livestock manure?

Who Cares?State governments, livestock producers, environmental regulators , and livestock associations that are trying to promote livestock growth within their respective states.

Environmental Capacity P Produced P Assimilated

Capacity of Federally and State Inspected Processing Plants

SWOT Analysis for Indiana’s Livestock Industry

Feed Capacity Environmental Capacity Processing Capacity

P Produced P Assimilated

Surplus or Deficit

Feed Consumed

Production of Meat, Dairy, and Poultry

Feed Produced

Surplus or Deficit Surplus or Deficit

Location Implications County District State

Indiana Specific Analysis

Population - Population Density

- Animal Density

Processing Capacity Number of Plants

Social/Legal Acceptance Population Density Animal Density

Feed Availability Total Production Feed Prices

State Comparison

Potential Growth for Indiana Livestock

Data

Livestock Inventories – USDA & Industry Professionals

Crop Production – USDA Inorganic Commercial Fertilizer Sales –

National Fertilizer Institute & Indiana State Chemist

Phosphorus Excretion – ASAE Standards Phosphorus Assimilation – Nutrient

Recommendations for Field Crops in Michigan & Tri-State Fertilizer Recommendations

State Comparison

States Included in Comparison

Minnesota Mississippi North Carolina Ohio Oklahoma Pennsylvania South Carolina Texas West Virginia Wisconsin

Arizona Arkansas California Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Kansas Kentucky Michigan

*Selected states with highest growth in inventories in 7 livestock segments for 2000-2004 or are boarder states to Indiana

1. Not a uniform product

2. Soil compaction

3. Transportation cost

Source: 2002 Census of Agriculture www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/

Percent of Farms That Applied Manure and Percent of Acres that Received

Manure Application by State

Phosphorus Production by Species for 2004

- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

% of Total P Produced

Beef

Dairy

Poultry

Swine

Liv

es

tock

Se

gm

en

t

U.S. Study

Percentage of States Nutrient Assimilation Capacity Used

Estimated State Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard(Livestock Phosphorus Production Only)

Legend

N/A

0% -

25%

26%

- 50

%

51%

- 75

%

76%

- 10

0%

101%

& O

ver

Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and West Virginia have excess phosphorus from just livestock production

Estimated State Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard(Livestock & Commercial Fertilizer)

Legend

N/A

0% -

25%

26%

- 50

%

51%

- 75

%

76%

- 10

0%

101%

& O

ver

Arkansas, California, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina, and Wisconsin have excess phosphorus as a result of commercial fertilizer

Arkansas, California, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Wisconsin have excess phosphorus from livestock and commercial fertilizer

Assimilation Capacity Implications

Crops grown in the Corn Belt are efficient at phosphorus assimilation

Traditionally, livestock farms in the Corn Belt have more cropland than livestock farms in other regions

State Assimilation Capacity1 (Livestock) Assimilation Capacity1 (Livestock and Fertilizer)

  <50% <100%

Arizona X X

Arkansas    

California    

Georgia    

Idaho X  

Illinois X X

Indiana X  

Iowa X X

Kansas X X

Kentucky X  

Michigan X  

Minnesota X  

Mississippi    

North Carolina    

Ohio X  

Oklahoma    

Pennsylvania    

South Carolina    

Texas X X

West Virginia    

Wisconsin X  

1) Capacity Used at strict Phosphorus Standard 

LEGEND

X in both X in 1 X in 0

Example of State Specific Analysis (Indiana)

Indiana’s Current Manure Application Policy

P < 50 ppm = 3 times P crop removal rate (Nitrogen Standard)

50 < P < 100 ppm = 1.5 times P crop removal

100 < P < 200 ppm = 1.0 time P crop removal

P > 200 ppm = NO APPLICATION

Source: www.in.nrcs.usda.gov/tsp.html

Estimated County Level Assimilation Capacity at 1.5 times the Phosphorus Standard

Livestock Livestock & Fertilizer

Legend

0% - 25%

26% - 50%

51% - 75%

76% - 100%

101% - 133%

Estimated County Level Assimilation Capacity at Strict Phosphorus Standard

Livestock Livestock & Fertilizer

Legend

0% - 25%

26% - 50%

51% - 75%

76% - 100%

101% - 133%

Implications

Counties with excess nutrients have options Substitute manure for fertilizer Change cropping patterns Change livestock rations Alternative use methods (methane

digester, composting) These methods will not eliminate P

Decrease livestock inventories

Conclusions Phosphorus assimilation could be a limiting

factor

Assimilation Capacity Corn belt crops are more efficient at phosphorus assimilation Changing crop patterns (i.e. increased corn production for

ethanol) Changing livestock rations

As EPA regulations continue to tighten and stricter phosphorus standards are implemented, new technology will be needed for growth of livestock

Strategy Recommendations 1. Promote the value of manure nutrients and encourage the

substitution of manure for commercial fertilizer. Indiana livestock alone does not produce enough phosphorus to meet the states demand for phosphorus, but the livestock industry is a significant supplier. In addition, work with the commercial fertilizer industry to identify strategies that will benefit both livestock producers and commercial fertilize dealers

2. Continue to develop new ways to increase the value of manure through alternative methods that will increase manures’ mobility and uniformity. Currently some livestock producers view manure as a waste and not a value added product. Indiana must show farmers the value of their manure.

Strategy Recommendations (continued)

3. Continue to work with researchers to find ways to change the Nitrogen and Phosphorus ratios in the manure

4. Work with fertilizer industry to find ways to blend manure with commercial fertilizers.

5. Continue to work with researchers to find methods to do real time testing of manure nutrients.

Comments & Questions