grid operations and planning report content • summary • november 2011 operations – peak...

Kent Saathoff Vice President of Grid Operations and System Planning

Grid Operations and Planning Report

Board of Directors Meeting December 12-13, 2011 ERCOT Public

2

Content

• Summary • November 2011 Operations

– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind

– CPS1 Monthly Performance – Historical Peak and Minimum Loads – Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance – Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone – Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs) – Advisories, Watches and EEAs – Significant System Incidents

• Planning Activities – Summary – Generation Interconnection Requests – Wind Capacity – Winter 2011/2012 Preparations and Fuel Oil Status – Gas Curtailment Risk Study Status – Drought update – Black Start Unit Testing

December 12-13, 2011 ERCOT Public

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Summary

• November 2011 Operations – The peak demand of 41,365 MW on November 28 was less than the mid-term

forecast peak of 43,160 MW and more than the October 2010 actual peak demand of 40,220 MW.

– Day-ahead load forecast error for November was 3.38%. – Advisory for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW issued 4

days. – No Watches for PRC under 2500 MW issued. – No Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) events issued.

• Planning Activities – 136 active generation interconnect requests totaling over 38,000 MW as

of November 30, 2011. Study has been suspended on 41 generation projects with a nameplate capacity totaling over 18,000 MW.

– 9,604 MW wind capacity on line November 30, 2011. – 7,371 MW accounting for 18% of ERCOT gas fueled generation has fuel

oil back-up capability going into the winter of 2011/2012.

ERCOT Public December 12-13, 2011

4

November 2011 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs. Forecast, Wind Day-Ahead COPs & On-line Capacity at Peak

Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from COPs, and EMMS.


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

MW

Actual Peak LoadActual Online CapacityActual Wind OutputERCOT Load Day-Ahead ForecastWind Day-Ahead COPs

Peak Demand for the Month: 41,365 MW @ 11/28/11 HE 08:00

5

November 2011: Actual Wind Output plus Curtailments vs. Wind Day-Ahead COPs for All Hours

Note: QSEs must use the AWST 50% probability of exceedance forecast as the HSL in their COPs


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

MW

Operating DayDaily Averaged Aggregated Wind Output Estimated Wind Curtailment Daily Averaged Day-Ahead COP HSL

% of Hours when Estimated Uncurtailed Wind Output >= COP HSLs (Target = 50%)

52%

6

November 2011 ERCOT’s CPS1 Monthly Performance


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

CPS1

Aver

age

Monthly Average 12 Month Rolling Average

CPS1 12 Month Rolling Average = 147.22%

7

November 2011: Monthly Peak Actual Demand


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

MW

Month

2010

2011Peak Demand is Peak Interval Demand

8

November 2011: Monthly Minimum Actual Demand


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

MW

Month

2010

2011Minimum Demand is Valley Interval Demand

9

Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in November 2011

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 14:00 Day Ahead

2008 MAPE

2009 MAPE

2010 MAPE

2011 MAPE

November 2011 MAPE

Average Annual MAPE

3.30 3.11 2.83 2.82

3.38

Lowest Monthly MAPE

2.45 1.93 2.24 1.63 Lowest Daily MAPE

1.57 Nov – 30

Highest Monthly MAPE

4.99 4.11 3.79 3.55

Highest Daily MAPE

6.76

Nov – 24


10

Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) Capacity by weather zone in November 2011


13

28

113

6

10

5

10

15

20

25

30

COAST FAR WEST NORTH SOUTH

Days

Weather Zone

RUC Commitments by Weather Zone

Unit-Days RUC Total Days

11

November 2011: Generic Transmission Limits (GTLs)

GTL: A transmission flow limit more constraining than a Transmission Element’s normal limit established to constrain flow between geographic areas of the ERCOT Transmission System that is used to enforce stability and voltage constraints that cannot be modeled directly in ERCOT’s transmission security analysis applications. Note: This table lists how many times a constraint has been activated to avoid exceeding a GTL limit, it does not imply an exceedance of the GTL occurred.

GTLs Nov 10 Days CSC

Sep 11 Days GTLs

Oct 11 Days GTLs

Nov 11 Days GTLs

Last 12 Months

Total Days (Oct 10 – Oct 11)

North – Houston 6 0 0

0

20

West – North 27 11 20

20 Nov (1-2,4-5,7-14,16-19,25-

27,30)

262

Valley Import 0 0 0

0

15


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Advisories and Watches in November 2011

• Advisories issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 3000 MW. – Issued 4 Days

• Watches issued for Physical Responsive Capability (PRC) below 2500 MW. – None

• Transmission Watches – November 23th ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch for Wilbarger County for voltage stability due to the outage of

the Bowman Switch – Fisher road 345 KV line. – November 28th ERCOT issued a Transmission Watch due to a large change in the North – Houston interface limit

due to the outage of the TH Wharton – Zenith 345 KV line.

• Energy Emergency Alerts – None


13

Planning Summary

• A comprehensive review by Transmission Service Providers of the status of each of their assigned generation interconnection studies has been completed. ERCOT has incorporated the results of this review into this month’s report.

• The details of this review will be covered as part of the CDR/SARA presentation.

• ERCOT is currently tracking 136 active generation interconnection requests

totaling over 38,000 MW. This includes over 19,000 MW of wind generation.

• Study has been suspended on 41 generation projects with a nameplate capacity totaling over 18,000 MW.

• ERCOT is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total cost of $162.5 Million.

• Transmission Projects endorsed in 2011 total $594.9 Million.


14

County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) November 2011


15

County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) November 2011


16

Wind Generation

150

1,433 1,635 1,755

116

816 977 1,173

1,385 1,854

2,875

4,785

8,005

8,916

9,400 9,754

11,025 11,227 11,347

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MWCumulative MW Installed

Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)

ERCOT Wind Installations by Year (as of November 30, 2011)

The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to ERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received.

This chart now reflects planned units in calendar year of installation rather than installation by peak of year shown


17

Generation Interconnection Study Activity by Fuel

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr-

06M

ay-0

6Ju

n-06

Jul-0

6Au

g-06

Sep-

06O

ct-0

6N

ov-0

6D

ec-0

6Ja

n-07

Feb-

07M

ar-0

7Ap

r-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug-

07Se

p-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr-

08M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Au

g-08

Sep-

08O

ct-0

8N

ov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-09

Feb-

09M

ar-0

9Ap

r -09

May

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Aug-

09Se

p-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10M

ay-1

0Ju

n-10

Jul-1

0Au

g-10

Sep -

10O

ct-1

0N

ov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-11

Feb -

11M

ar-1

1Ap

r-11

May

-11

Jun-

11Ju

l-11

Aug-

11Se

p-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Proj

ect C

ount

MW

Cap

acity

MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW Coal MW Wind MW Solar * MW Biomass * MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled

* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass"Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graphProject cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008

Note: Suspended Projects are not included in this chart


18

Generation Interconnection Study Activity by Project Phase

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr

-06

May

-06

Jun-

06Ju

l-06

Aug

-06

Sep

-06

Oct

-06

Nov

-06

Dec

-06

Jan -

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr

-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug

-07

Sep

-07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Dec

-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09Ju

l-09

Aug

-09

Sep

-09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Dec

-09

Jan-

10Fe

b-10

Mar

-10

Apr

-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Ju

l-10

Aug

-10

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11Fe

b-11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

MW

Cap

acity

Proj

ect C

ount

# In-Service ** # Signed Interconnect Agreement # Projects Cancelled *** # Full Study Suspended

# Completed Full Study # in Full Study # Screening Study Complete # Initial Screening Study

MW Capacity Under Study * MW In Commercial Operation **

* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.

** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006

*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008


19

Winter Preparedness 2011

• Fuel Oil Status: – 49 units with 7,371 MW of generation have distillate or residual fuel oil

stored for the upcoming winter (18% of gas generation). – 36 units with 3000 MW can operate on 100% fuel oil at maximum capacity

for 2 days or more in case of Level 3 or total natural gas restrictions.

• Winter 2011 preparations – ERCOT has requested all generators provide an affidavit confirming

completion of winter weatherization by December 1, 2011. – ERCOT has reviewed Emergency Operations Plans for resources including

weatherization. – ERCOT has begin spot audits of winter preparedness and weatherization in

which it will perform site visits to review preparation. – ERCOT winter storm drill was conducted November 30 – December 1st with

42 QSEs and 16 Transmission Operators participating, involving a scenario similar to the February 2nd 2011 freeze event.


20

Fuel Oil Backup – Winter 2011


21 ERCOT Public

Status Update on Gas Curtailment Risk Study

December 12-13, 2011

• Contracting completed on 9/23/2011 with project kick-off meeting on 9/26/11

• Ongoing interaction between ERCOT and Black & Veatch project teams on deliverables

Project Management

• Majority of survey responses received from electric generators • Data requests to ERCOT and RRC completed • Research and analysis of curtailments and natural gas infrastructure

completed • Scenarios for risk analysis have been reviewed with ERCOT • Modeling of scenarios within natural gas infrastructure model is ongoing

Data Gathering & Research

• Deliverable 1 (Database of historical natural gas curtailments) submitted to ERCOT

• Deliverable 2 (Data summarizing Natural gas infrastructure serving electric generators) submitted to ERCOT

Deliverables

• Complete modeling of identified natural gas curtailment risk scenarios • Complete probabilistic analysis of risk of curtailment in defined

scenarios • Delivery expected January 2012

Next Steps

22

Drought Effect on Generation Update

• ERCOT has been periodically surveying generators during and since the summer to monitor the effect of drought on generation availability

• Based on most recent survey: – Current unavailability due to drought is only 24 MW

– If East Texas receives half of it’s normal winter/spring rainfall,

unavailability could go up to 434 MW by May

– If no significant rainfall received, unavailability is estimated to be as much as 3,044 MW by May

– Approximately 11,464 MW is dependent on water rights from sources at historically low levels


23

Follow-up on Drought Effects

• Units which had informed ERCOT of concerns about drought impact upon operations have taken steps to improve physical access to water.

• TCEQ has notified ERCOT that it does not anticipate curtailing water rights to generation facilities.

• After discussion with TCEQ staff, ERCOT has concluded that additional analysis of physical limitations to surface water access for large power plants that are dependent upon surface water would be beneficial.

• ERCOT is preparing a second survey to gather information on generator water intake elevations, relevant lake elevations, etc. to perform basic projections of potential water access limitations for plants larger than 100 MW that utilize significant amounts of water.


24

Black Start Service Resource Qualification Testing

• Once selected as preliminary Black Start resource, each Black Start resource needs to perform and pass the test requirements outlined in Nodal Protocol Section 8.1.1.2.1.5. – Verify control communication path performance; – Verify primary and alternate voice circuits for receipt instructions; – Perform the “Basic Starting Test” – ability of the BSS Resource to start

itself without support from the ERCOT System; done annually – Perform the “Line-Energizing Test” – energizing transmission by the BSS

Resource; test valid for 3 years – Perform the “Load-Carrying Test” – must be able to supply power to load

and be stable for at least 30 minutes; done at least once every 5 years – Perform the “Next Start Resource Test” – ability to start up the next start

unit’s largest motor while remaining stable; test is repeated if a new next start unit is selected


25

Black Start Service Resource On-going Testing

• Protocol Section 3.14.2(4) allows ERCOT to schedule random testing or simulation, or both, to verify BSS is operable according to the ERCOT System restoration plan. Testing and verification must be done under established qualification criteria.

• Recently approved PRR 369 allows ERCOT to perform a Black Start Resource Availability Test on a quarterly basis unless the Black Start Resource successfully started and operated at its LSL or higher for at least 4 consecutive Settlement Intervals during the quarter.

• Black Start Resources that fail a quarterly Black Start Resource Availability Test are required to immediately update Availability Plans to show zero availability and will not receive Hourly Standby Fees for BSS effective the date of the failed test.

• The Black Start Resource may schedule a second test subject to ERCOT approval. If the second test is passed payment resumes.

• If the second test is failed the Black Start Resource is disqualified and ERCOT shall claw-back payments made since the Black Start Resources last successful test.


grid operations and planning report content • summary • november 2011 operations – peak...

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