grid operations and planning report · 2014-06-23 · grid operations and planning report ercot...

Grid Operations and Planning Report

ERCOT Board of DirectorsNovember 17, 2009,

Kent Saathoff

Content

• Summary• Summary

• September 2009 Operations– Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast

On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind– Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance– Out of Merit Capacity Order (OOMC) & Replacement Reserve (RPRS)

Purchases– Zonal Congestion– Significant System Incidents– Advisories, Watches and EEAs– Other ItemsOther Items

• October 2009 Peak Demand: Actual vs. Forecast On-line Resources: Total at Peak and Wind Generation

• Planning Activities– Summary– Generation Interconnection Requests– Wind Capacity

2

Wind Capacity

ERCOT Public17 November 2009

Summary

• September 2009 Operations– The peak demand of 55,210 MW on September 3rd was less than the

forecasted peak of 56,442 MW.forecasted peak of 56,442 MW.– Day-ahead load forecast error for September was 3.68%. – Ten Advisories for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 3000

MW. Two Watches for ARR under 2500 MW. No Energy Emergency gy g yAlert (EEA) events.

– No transmission watches• October 2009 peak demand on October 8th of 49,100 MW• 222 active generation interconnect requests totaling over

77,000 MW as of October 31, 2009. Two requests and 2,000 MW fewer than September 30.

• 8,916 MW wind capacity on line October 31, 2009. 399 MW increase from September

3 ERCOT Public17 November 2009

Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs Forecast, Resource Plan & On-line Capacity at Peak

417 November 2009 ERCOT Public

Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from Resource Plans, and EMMS.

Actual Wind Output w/ Curtailment Added Back Vs Wind Day-Ahead Resource Plan Based on AWS Forecast for All Hours

% of Hours with Output + Wind Curtailments >= Resource Plan MW

(Target = 80%)

66.53%

5

Note: QSEs must use AWST 80% probability of exceedence forecast for Day-Ahead Resource Plans17 November 2009 ERCOT Public

September 2009: Monthly Peak Demand: Actual


September 2009: Monthly Minimum Demand: Actual


Day-Ahead Load Forecast Performance in September 2009

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for ERCOT Mid-Term Load Forecast (MTLF) Run at 16:00 Day AheadRun at 16:00 Day Ahead

2006MAPE

2007 MAPE

2008MAPE

2009MAPE (YTD)

September 2009MAPEMAPE MAPE MAPE MAPE (YTD) MAPE

AverageAnnual MAPE

3.79 3.55 3.30 3.20 3.68MAPE


Capacity Purchases of RMR, OOMC & RPRS to Manage Local Congestion in September 2009


Zonal Congestion

CSC Sept 08Days

July 09Days

Aug 09Days

Sept 09Days

Last 12Months

Total Days(Sept 08 – Sept 09)

North – Houston 6 7 4 8Sept – 13, 14, 16, 18,

20, 21, 27, 28

65

North – West 1 0 0 0 5

West – North 0 9 11 5 173Sept – 2, 8, 17, 20, 21

South – North 1 0 0 1Sept – 10

8

North - South 7 1 0 2Sept – 20, 21

43


Significant System Incidents in September 2009

• September 1st

– Day-ahead Ancillary Service Market delayed for 15 minutes due y y yto overlapping data snapshots.

• September 14thSeptember 14– Simultaneous loss of one unit, one auto transformer and two 138

kV lines due to improper timer setting for breaker failure relaying schemescheme.


Advisories and Watches in September 2009

• Advisories issued for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 3000 MW.– Issued 10 Days.

• Watches issued for Adjusted Responsive Reserve (ARR) below 2500 MW.– Issued 2 Days.y

• Transmission Watches– None

• No EEA’s in September 2009


Other Items

• September 5th

– Held Real-time Balancing deployments for interval ending 00:15 due to entry of bad offset Resumed with interval ending 00:30due to entry of bad offset. Resumed with interval ending 00:30 deployments.

September 28th• September 28th

– Held Real-time Balancing deployments for interval ending 23:00 due to entry of bad offset. Resumed with interval ending 23:30 deploymentsdeployments.


October 2009 Daily Peak Demand: Hourly Average Actual vs Forecast, Resource Plan & On-line Capacity at Peak

14 ERCOT Public

Note: All data are hourly averages during the peak load hour obtained from Resource Plans, and EMMS.

17 November 2009

October 2009 Actual Wind Output as a Percentage of the Total Installed Wind Capacity at Peak


Planning Summary

ERCOT is currently tracking 222 active generation interconnection requests totaling over 77,000 MW. This includes over 44,000 MW of wind generation.wind generation.

Regional Planning is currently reviewing proposed transmission improvements with a total of $1,031.70 Million

Transmission Projects approved in 2009 total $284.4 Million

All projects (in engineering, routing, licensing and construction) total approximately $9.2 Billion

Transmission Projects energized in 2009 total about $416 million Transmission Projects energized in 2009 total about $416 million


County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (all fuels) October 2009


County Location of Planned Generation with Interconnection Requests (Wind) October 2009


Wind Generation

MW

,881

,881

30

10,000

12,000

Cumulative Planned (Signed Interconnection Agreement)Cumulative MW Installed

9,66810,246

10,797 10,797

8,005

1,1,

1,33

752

8,000

8,916

916

916

916

4,785

916

916

6,000

8,9

8,9

8,9

1 385

2,875

1,854

8,9

8,9

2,000

4,000

1,385

116 116

1,173977816

0

,

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

19

(as of October 31, 2009)

Year


Generation Interconnection Activity by Fuel

MW Natural Gas MW Nuclear MW CoalMW Wi d MW S l * MW Bi *

120,000 300

MW Wind MW Solar * MW Biomass *MW Other Total # Projects # Projects Cancelled

* Prior to September 2008, Category "Other" included "Solar" and "Biomass" Projects in all phases of interconnection study are reflected in this graph Project cancellation tracking by month began in March 2008

80,000

100,000

200

250

60,000

MW

Cap

acity

150

Proj

ect C

ount

20 000

40,000

M

50

100

P

0

20,000

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

-06

v-06 -06

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

v-07 -07

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

v-08 -08

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

-09

0

50

20

Jan-

Feb-

Mar

-A

pr-

May

-Ju

nJu

lA

ug-

Sep

-O

ct-

Nov

Dec

-Ja

n-Fe

b-M

ar-

Apr

-M

ay-

Jun

Jul

Aug

-S

ep-

Oct

-N

ovD

ec-

Jan-

Feb-

Mar

-A

pr-

May

-Ju

nJu

lA

ug-

Sep

-O

ct-

Nov

Dec

-Ja

n-Fe

b-M

ar-

Apr

-M

ay-

Jun

Jul

Aug

-S

ep-

Oct

-


Generation Interconnection Activity by Project Phase

# Initial Screening Study # Screening Study Complete # in Full Study

350 120,000

# Completed Full Study # Projects Cancelled *** # Signed Interconnect Agreement# In-Service ** MW Capacity Under Study * MW In Commercial Operation **

* Nameplate capacity will change across time due to additional projects, cancellations, expirations, adjustments from study results, and projects being placed in service.

250

300

80,000

100,000** Having begun commercial operation since January 2006

*** Began tracking cancellations by month in March 2008

150

200

Proj

ect C

ount

60,000

MW

Cap

acity

100

P

20 000

40,000

M

0

50

n-06 -06

r-06

r-06

y-06

n-06 l-06

g-06 -06

t-06

v-06

c-06

n-07 -07

r-07

r-07

y-07

n-07 l-07

g-07 -07

t-07

v-07

c-07

n-08 -08

r-08

r-08

y-08

n-08 l-08

g-08 -08

t-08

v-08

c-08

n-09 -09

r-09

r-09

y-09

n-09 l-09

g-09 -09

t-09

0

20,000

21

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Ma r

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct


grid operations and planning report · 2014-06-23 · grid operations and planning report ercot...

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