graedel presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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The Criticality of Materials
Thomas E. GraedelYale University
Center for Industrial EcologyYale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
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Neutron CaptureDuring Supernova explosion neutrons are captured by
the elements present in the star to form heavier elements
single neutron capture56
26Fe +10n 5726Fe 5727Co + 0-1e
57
27
Co + 1
0
n 5827
Co 5828
Ni + 0
-1
e
etc
OR
multiple neutron capture
5626Fe + 23
10n 7926Fe 7935Br + 9 0-1e
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11 Elements
+4 Elements
Metal Linkages in the New Mineralogy
+45 Elements(Potential)
Source: T. McManus, Intel Corp., 2006
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Elemental Functions in Electronics
Germanium semiconductors
Copper circuit connections Tantalum capacitor
Antimony diodes Yttrium red phosphor
Indium transistors
Terbium green phosphor activator
Hafnium transistor insulator
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11 ELEMENTS
15 ELEMENTS
60 ELEMENTS
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Turbine Airfoils for Energy and Aviation
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Superalloy
Coatings
Elemental Usage in Superalloy Turbine Airfoils
15 elements
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The No-Build Periodic Table
+45 Elements(Potential)
Dy: Electric motors
P: Food
Re: Jet engines
Ta: Electronics
V: Steel
alloys Rh: Catalytic
converters
In: Flat panel
displays
U: Nuclear power
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Trends in Metal Production
0
160
320
480
640
800
960
1845 1860 1875 1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010
AnnualProdu
ction:Cu,
Au,
Pb
,Ni,FeOre,
Diam
onds,
Bauxite
0
840
1,680
2,520
3,360
4,200
5,040
AnnualProduction:MnOre,
Ag,
Zn
Copper (kt Cu)
Gold (t Au)
Lead (kt Pb)
Nickel (kt Ni)
Iron Ore (Mt)
Diamonds (Mcarats)
Bauxite (Mt)
Manganese (kt Mn ore)
Silver (t Ag)
Zinc (kt Zn)
??
G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainabili ty of Mining ...
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Trends in Ore Grades
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Ore
Grades(Cu,
Au,
Pb,
Zn,
Ni,Diamo
nds)
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
3,600
OreGrade(Ag)
Copper (%Cu)
Gold (g/t Au)
Lead (%Pb)
Zinc (%Zn)
Nickel (%Ni)
Diamonds (carats/t)
Uranium (kg/t U3O8)
Silver (g/t Ag)
Gold: 1857 - 50.05; 1858 - 41.23; 1859 - 37.27
G. Mudd, 2009, Sustainabili ty of Mining ...
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Eras of Elemental Histories
Annualrate
ofuse
Era of Era of Era of Era of
Discovery Experimentation Exploitation Scarcity
??
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http://www.hubbertpeak.com/Campbell/commons.htm
The Exploitation Curve for a Resource Deposit
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www.grinningplanet.com/.../peak-oil-article.htm
Peak Oil A Typical Assessment
http://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htmhttp://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htm -
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The Quest for Unobtainium
Source: gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog...
Source: www.parantar.com/.../
http://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspxhttp://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspxhttp://www.parantar.com/2009/12/watch-avatar-movie-online-free/http://www.parantar.com/2009/12/watch-avatar-movie-online-free/http://gameinformer.com/blogs/editors/b/gijeffm_blog/archive/2009/12/11/issue-201-avatar-terminology-homage-coincidence-or-crazy.aspx -
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Why Dont We Get MetalsFrom Recycling?
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Brake Linings: An Example of Dissipative Use
Brake linings contain phenolic resin binder, clay and powder fillers, graphite
lubricants, and metallic fibers (Ba, Ca, Ti, Cu, Mg, Cr, Sb, Zn, Zr )
Image courtesy of Sansin Brake Co., etrade.daegu.go.kr/.../Brake_Lining.html
http://etrade.daegu.go.kr/co/sangsinbrake/GC00388153/CA00388212/Brake_Lining.htmlhttp://etrade.daegu.go.kr/co/sangsinbrake/GC00388153/CA00388212/Brake_Lining.html -
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Electronics in the Trash:
An Example of Fragmentary Collection
Courtesy of Gothamist.LLC, gothamist.com/2008/02/16/electronics_rec.php
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Processing Failures:
Electronic Waste Recycling in India
Courtesy of D. Rochat, EMPA, Switzerland
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End of Life Recycling Rate (Global) for Sixty-Two Metals
UNEP Evaluation as of January, 2010
>50% >25-50% >10-25% 1-10%
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The U.S. National Academy ofSciences 2007 Study of Resource
Sustainability
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High
Low
Low High
Supply Risk
Impact
ofSupplyRestriction
Determining a Materials Criticality
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The First Dimension of Criticality
Supply risk
Geologic availability -- Technical availabilityRegulatory availability -- Geopolit ical availability
Social availability -- Market availability
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The Second Dimension of Criticality:
Impacts of Supply RestrictionPrevents manufacture
Impedes product development
Influences profitability
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High
Low
Low High
Supply Risk
Impact
ofSupplyRestriction
Identifying the Region of Danger
Regionof
Danger
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11 Minerals Evaluated
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A Possible Major New Supply Risk Scenario
High
Low
Low High
Supply Risk
Impact
ofSupplyRestriction Region
of
Danger
T.E.
Graedel,
2009
2010
2020
2030
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A Possible Major New Use Scenario
High
Low
Low High
Supply Risk
Importanceofuse
s
Regionof
Danger
T.E.
Graedel,
2007
2010
2020
2030
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The Yale Criticality Project
NSF funded, 2009-2012
Several undergraduates, several mastersstudents
5-10 hours per week each
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Goals of the Yale Criticality Project
Developing a defendable and workablemethodology for evaluating the degree to
which a metal is critical Using the methodology, evaluate the
criticality of a number of different metals
Create a family of scenarios to study the
possible evolution of metal criticality
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Addressing the X-Axis:
Supply Risk
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X Axis Supply Risk
SR
GTE S&R GP
PRB SRB PPI EPI PSI HHI
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Key Questions to be Answered
What components should be included?
How can the inclusion of these components be
justified?
How can these components be evaluated?
How should the component evaluations be
aggregated?
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The Supply Risk Analytical Sequence
Supply
Risk
Geol/Tech/Econ
Social/Reg
Geopoli-tical
PRB SRB PPI PSI TRI
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Fraser Institute (Vancouver, BC)
Annual Survey of Mining Companies
Purpose:Assess how public policy factors
such as taxation and regulation affectexploration investment
Participants: Executives and explorationmanagers in mining and mining consulting
companies
Coverage: 71 jurisdictions worldwide
(subnational in Canada, Australia, USA)
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Fraser Institute Evaluation Methodology
Composite index of 13 factors (taxation,
uncertainty concerning native land claims,security, environmental regulation, etc.)
Scoring (1): For an individual factors, ifevery
respondent evaluates a jurisdiction as 1, itreceives a score of 100, as so on down
Scoring (2): The 13 factor scores for a
jurisdiction are added, and a perfect score again
normalized to 100
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Fraser Institute Survey Results, 2008-2009
Top ten: Quebec, Wyoming, Nevada,Alberta, Newfoundland, New Brunswick,
Manitoba, Chile, Saskatchewan, Ontario Bottom ten: Venezuela, Ecuador,
Guatemala, Honduras, India, Bolivia,
Zimbabwe, Kyrgyzstan, D.R. Congo,Indonesia
Th P li P t ti l I d
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The Policy Potential Index
2008/09PolicyPotentialIndex
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
PPI Index
Norm
aliz
ed
score
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Addressing the Y-Axis:
Impact of Supply Restriction
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Y Axis Impact of Supply Restriction - National
Impact of
Supply
Restriction
ImportanceSubstitutabili
ty
Import
Reliance
(%)
Industries
impactedPerformance Availability
Environment
al
impact ratio
Percent of
Citizens
impacted
Innovation
Impact ofSupply
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Supply
Restriction
Importance Substitutability
Economic
Cost
Price
volatility
Passthrough
prospects
Evaluating the Y Axis
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Direct Economic Considerations
Risk Level Impacted revenue 5-yr price volatilityAbility to pass-through
cost increases
Very high >1000 ppm Revenue >500% Nearly impossible
High >100 ppm Revenue 200-500% Difficult
Medium >10 ppm Revenue 100-200% Partially possible
Low >1 ppm Revenue 50-100% Relatively easy
Very low
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ISR
I S
IR PT PS AS EIRCS
CI
PR
SR
GTE S&R GP
PRB SRB PPI EPI PSI HHI
The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept
EI
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Criticality Project Philosophy
Address all issues that could influence
availability or technological interest
Where possible, use existing, widely-accepted metrics
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Current Beta Test Elements
Copper Our baseline element for
evaluation. No shortage of information,and important uses in power distribution
Cadmium A byproduct metal, widelyused in batteries, highly toxic
Tantalum Crucial metal for electronics,
serious geopolitical concerns
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Can we stave off this
problem, or at least
buy some time?
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A Mine of the Past:
(Bingham Canyon, UT Copper Mine)
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Finding the Missing Resource
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A Mine of the Future
SRB estimate vs PRB estimate of Stock of Global Copper
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0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
S
tock
Estimate
SRB
PRB
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The On Ramp
Capacity control
(commuter
buses, etc.)
The Off Ramp
Enabling Materials Use and Reuse
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IMPORT/EXPORT
ORE ENVIRONMENT
PROCESS-
ING
FABRICA-
TIONUSE WASTE
MGT.
IMPORT/EXPORT
ORE ENVIRONMENT
PROCESS-
ING
FABRICA-
TIONUSE DISCARD
MGT.
STAF Project
Yale University 2004The On Ramp The Off Ramp
g
Capacity Control byDematerialized Design
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POSSIBLY LIMITED RESOURCES
Resource appears small relative to annual
extraction: Au, Cu, PGMs Resource seems to have no obvious
substitutes: In, Re, Li, Hf, Er, others
Hitchhiker availability only: Cd, Ga, Te, In,
others
Very large energy requirements: Al, Ti
Toxicity limited: Pb, Hg, As, Cd
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Tomorrows Periodic Table?
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Summary
The industrial sector uses essentially all of theperiodic table
Elemental choices that appear (at least in the shortto medium term) to be unsubstitutable are
increasingly used in modern technology
Research is now underway to make a realisticassessment of criticality for a number of metals
A strong effort to reuse materials buys time totransform technology into a more sustainable form
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