1

Gold and Silver Markets黄金和白银市场

10th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum

Jeffrey Christian, Managing Partner CPM Group

28 May 2013

April and May Market Activity四、五月市场情况

2

金价 : 长期牛市中的一个周期性峰值

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-131,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

Comex 黄金期货每日最高价、最低价和结算价，截至 2013 年 5 月 17 日Comex High, Low, and Settlement Gold Futures Prices, Daily, Through 17 May

2013$/Ounce $/Ounce

3

银价 : 抵达周期性峰值

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-1310

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Comex 白银期货价格 , 每日数据，截至 2013 年 5 月 17 日

$ / Oz $ / Oz

Comex Silver Prices, Daily, Through 17 May 2013

4

ETF 实物黄金持有量降低至 2011 年 9 月水平Through 14 May 2013

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000 百万盎司 Million Ounces 百万盎司 Million Ounces

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13YTD

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25百万盎司百万盎司

Through 14 May 2013

黄金 ETF 净增持 / 减持量

ETF 实物白银持有量

6

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

SSLV WITE GLTR PSLV SVR.UN SBT.U Julius Baer

SIVR MSL Zurich PHAG SLV CEF

SLV

CEF

ZKB

百万盎司 Million Ounces

Through 14 May 2013

美国铸金币溢价走弱

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-133.30%

3.40%

3.50%

3.60%

3.70%

3.80%

3.90%

4.00%

4.10%

3.30%

3.40%

3.50%

3.60%

3.70%

3.80%

3.90%

4.00%

4.10%

American Eagle 1Oz American Buffalo 1Oz

美国铸金币溢价 Premia on U.S. Mint Gold CoinsDaily data through 15 May 2013

Net Long Gold Positions: Lowest Level Since November 2008净多头仓位处于 08 年 11 月以来的最低位

A-95M-95M-95M-95J-95J-95J-95J-95A-95A-95S-95S-95O-95O-95O-95N-95N-95D-95D-95J-96J-96F-96F-96M-96M-96A-96A-96A-96M-96M-96J-96J-96J-96J-96A-96A-96S-96S-96O-96O-96O-96N-96N-96D-96D-96J-97J-97F-97F-97M-97M-97A-97A-97A-97M-97M-97J-97J-97J-97J-97A-97A-97S-97S-97S-97O-97O-97N-97N-97D-97D-97J-98J-98F-98F-98M-98M-98M-98A-98A-98M-98M-98J-98J-98J-98J-98A-98A-98S-98S-98S-98O-98O-98N-98N-98D-98D-98J-99J-99F-99F-99M-99M-99M-99A-99A-99M-99M-99J-99J-99J-99J-99A-99A-99A-99S-99S-99O-99O-99N-99N-99D-99D-99J-00J-00F-00F-00F-00M-00M-00A-00A-00M-00M-00J-00J-00J-00J-00A-00A-00A-00S-00S-00O-00O-00N-00N-00D-00D-00J-01J-01J-01F-01F-01M-01M-01A-01A-01M-01M-01J-01J-01J-01J-01J-01A-01A-01S-01S-01O-01O-01N-01N-01D-01D-01D-01J-02J-02F-02F-02M-02M-02A-02A-02M-02M-02J-02J-02J-02J-02J-02A-02A-02S-02S-02O-02O-02N-02N-02D-02D-02D-02J-03J-03F-03F-03M-03M-03A-03A-03M-03M-03J-03J-03J-03J-03J-03A-03A-03S-03S-03O-03O-03N-03N-03D-03D-03D-03J-04J-04F-04F-04M-04M-04A-04A-04M-04M-04J-04J-04J-04J-04J-04A-04A-04S-04S-04O-04O-04N-04N-04N-04D-04D-04J-05J-05F-05F-05M-05M-05A-05A-05M-05M-05M-05J-05J-05J-05J-05A-05A-05S-05S-05O-05O-05N-05N-05N-05D-05D-05J-06J-06F-06F-06M-06M-06A-06A-06M-06M-06M-06J-06J-06J-06J-06A-06A-06S-06S-06O-06O-06O-06N-06N-06D-06D-06J-07J-07F-07F-07M-07M-07A-07A-07M-07M-07M-07J-07J-07J-07J-07A-07A-07S-07S-07O-07O-07O-07N-07N-07D-07D-07J-08J-08F-08F-08M-08M-08A-08A-08A-08M-08M-08J-08J-08J-08J-08A-08A-08S-08S-08S-08O-08O-08N-08N-08D-08D-08J-09J-09F-09F-09M-09M-09M-09A-09A-09M-09M-09J-09J-09J-09J-09A-09A-09S-09S-09S-09O-09O-09N-09N-09D-09D-09J-10J-10F-10F-10M-10M-10M-10A-10A-10M-10M-10J-10J-10J-10J-10A-10A-10A-10S-10S-10O-10O-10N-10N-10D-10D-10J-11J-11F-11F-11M-11M-11M-11A-11A-11M-11M-11J-11J-11J-11J-11A-11A-11A-11S-11S-11O-11O-11N-11N-11D-11D-11J-12J-12J-12F-12F-12M-12M-12A-12A-12M-12M-12J-12J-12J-12J-12J-12A-12A-12S-12S-12O-12O-12N-12N-12D-12D-12J-13J-13J-13F-13F-13M-13M-13A-13A-13M-13-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Long

Short

Net Fund Position in Comex

非商业交易成员在 Comex 黄金期货和期权上的总多头仓位和总空头仓位 , 每周数据Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercial Positions Comex Gold Futures & Options. Weekly Data, through 14 May 2013

百万盎司 百万盎司

2012 和 2013 空头仓位大幅增加

9

A-95M-95M-95M-95J-95J-95J-95J-95A-95A-95S-95S-95O-95O-95O-95N-95N-95D-95D-95J-96J-96F-96F-96M-96M-96A-96A-96A-96M-96M-96J-96J-96J-96J-96A-96A-96S-96S-96O-96O-96O-96N-96N-96D-96D-96J-97J-97F-97F-97M-97M-97A-97A-97A-97M-97M-97J-97J-97J-97J-97A-97A-97S-97S-97S-97O-97O-97N-97N-97D-97D-97J-98J-98F-98F-98M-98M-98M-98A-98A-98M-98M-98J-98J-98J-98J-98A-98A-98S-98S-98S-98O-98O-98N-98N-98D-98D-98J-99J-99F-99F-99M-99M-99M-99A-99A-99M-99M-99J-99J-99J-99J-99A-99A-99A-99S-99S-99O-99O-99N-99N-99D-99D-99J-00J-00F-00F-00F-00M-00M-00A-00A-00M-00M-00J-00J-00J-00J-00A-00A-00A-00S-00S-00O-00O-00N-00N-00D-00D-00J-01J-01J-01F-01F-01M-01M-01A-01A-01M-01M-01J-01J-01J-01J-01J-01A-01A-01S-01S-01O-01O-01N-01N-01D-01D-01D-01J-02J-02F-02F-02M-02M-02A-02A-02M-02M-02J-02J-02J-02J-02J-02A-02A-02S-02S-02O-02O-02N-02N-02D-02D-02D-02J-03J-03F-03F-03M-03M-03A-03A-03M-03M-03J-03J-03J-03J-03J-03A-03A-03S-03S-03O-03O-03N-03N-03D-03D-03D-03J-04J-04F-04F-04M-04M-04A-04A-04M-04M-04J-04J-04J-04J-04J-04A-04A-04S-04S-04O-04O-04N-04N-04N-04D-04D-04J-05J-05F-05F-05M-05M-05A-05A-05M-05M-05M-05J-05J-05J-05J-05A-05A-05S-05S-05O-05O-05N-05N-05N-05D-05D-05J-06J-06F-06F-06M-06M-06A-06A-06M-06M-06M-06J-06J-06J-06J-06A-06A-06S-06S-06O-06O-06O-06N-06N-06D-06D-06J-07J-07F-07F-07M-07M-07A-07A-07M-07M-07M-07J-07J-07J-07J-07A-07A-07S-07S-07O-07O-07O-07N-07N-07D-07D-07J-08J-08F-08F-08M-08M-08A-08A-08A-08M-08M-08J-08J-08J-08J-08A-08A-08S-08S-08S-08O-08O-08N-08N-08D-08D-08J-09J-09F-09F-09M-09M-09M-09A-09A-09M-09M-09J-09J-09J-09J-09A-09A-09S-09S-09S-09O-09O-09N-09N-09D-09D-09J-10J-10F-10F-10M-10M-10M-10A-10A-10M-10M-10J-10J-10J-10J-10A-10A-10A-10S-10S-10O-10O-10N-10N-10D-10D-10J-11J-11F-11F-11M-11M-11M-11A-11A-11M-11M-11J-11J-11J-11J-11A-11A-11A-11S-11S-11O-11O-11N-11N-11D-11D-11J-12J-12J-12F-12F-12M-12M-12A-12A-12M-12M-12J-12J-12J-12J-12J-12A-12A-12S-12S-12O-12O-12N-12N-12D-12D-12J-13J-13J-13F-13F-13M-13M-13A-13A-13M-13-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Long

Short

Net Fund Position in Comex

非商业交易成员在 Comex 白银期货和期权上的总多头仓位和总空头仓位 , 每周数据 , 至 2013 年 5 月 14 日Gross Long and Short Positions of Non-Commercials, Comex Silver Futures and Options. Weekly Data, Through 14 May 2013

百万盎司百万盎司

The Economic Background宏观经济环境

10

世界实际 GDP 增长预期减缓

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

World Emerging and Developing Economies

Advanced Economies

实际国内生产总值 , 年增长率 , 预测至 2022Real Gross Domestic Product, Annual, Projected Through 2022

百分比变化 百分比变化

实际 预期

世界

新兴和发展中经济体

发达经济体

Source: IMF, CPM GroupNote: Historical data are IMF statistics. Projections are made by CPM Group. Projections for "Emerging and Developing Economies are only for BRIC countries, which account for approximately 52.8% of this category. Projections for "Advanced Economies" are only for the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, and Japan. These countries accounted for 82.2% of this category.

11

黄金 Gold

12

主要结论 Key Conclusions• 投资需求在 2012 年降低 4.8% 至 3870 万盎司。尽管下降如此之多，

但 2012 年投资者净购买黄金量仍是历史第四高纪录。Investment Demand declined 3.5% in 2012, but at 38.7 million ounces the volume of gold bought by investors was the fourth highest on record. Likely to fall to around 34.3 million ounces in 2013.

• 最新精炼总供应 2012 年下降 0.6% ，主要由于市场经济国家的矿山供应比前年减少 1.2% 。Total Newly Refined Supply flat in 2012; mine production was up 2.0%. Total supply may rise 1.3% this year.

• 全球央行 2012 年买入 950 万盎司黄金，略超过 2011 年的 920 万盎司。其中，土耳其央行 的货币储备中增加了 430 万盎司黄金。这部分黄金是通过“准备金选择机制”增添的，因此从我们的官方交易数据里除却。Central Banks purchased 9.5 million ounces of gold in 2012, up slightly from 9.2 million ounces in 2011. The Central Bank of Turkey added 5.3 million ounces to its monetary reserves through its Reserve Options Mechanism, which are excluded from our official transactions data.

• 珠宝和工业需求的增加，使黄金制造业需求 2012 年得以增长0.4% 。 Fabrication Demand rose 1.4% in 2012; both jewelry and industrial demand increased.

13

投资需求 Investment Demand

14

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12e

13p

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

百分比变化Percent Change

百万盎司Million Ounces

投资需求对金价的影响 Investment Demand's Effect on Gold Prices 价格变化截至 2013 年 5 月 10 日 Price Change Through 10 May 2013

净投资需求 ( 右轴）价格变化

黄金投资需求 Gold Investment Demand

13p

投资需求 Investment Demand • 投资需求是影响金价的最重要因素。 Investment Demand is the most important influence on gold

prices.

• 净投资需求在减少，但是仍然处于历史高位。 Net investment demand is declining but is still at historically elevated levels.

• 投资者仍然热衷持有黄金，但是他们对金价越来越敏感。 Investors remain interested in owning gold but have become increasingly price sensitive.

• 投资者对金价的敏感度上升是因为他们不认为一些引起担忧的情况会变成现实。 Investors have become price sensitive because they do not believe that some of their worst fears will materialize. o 全球金融系统崩溃 collapse of global financial systemo 高通货膨胀 hyper inflation

• 还有一些长期的经济问题没有解决。 There are still several long-term economic issues that remain unresolved:o 全球贸易和财政不平衡 global trade and fiscal imbalances o 货币市场波动 currency market volatility

• 对这些问题的担忧让投资者对持有黄金保有兴趣，但他们不再处于一个金价上升的环境。这将影响黄金的投资需求和金价。 This should keep investors interested in owning gold, only not in a rising price environment. This is expected to both weigh on gold investment demand and the price of gold.

16

中国和印度的黄金需求

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Net Investment Demand Fabrication Demand

百万盎司 百万盎司Total Chinese Demand, Annual, Projected Through 2013

中国黄金总需求 , 年度数据 , 预测至2013

投资需求 制造业需求

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13p0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Investment Demand Fabrication Demand

投资需求 制造业需求

百万盎司 百万盎司

Total Indian Demand, Annual, Projected Through 2013

印度黄金总需求 , 年度数据 , 预测至2013

17

影响投资需求的因素 Factors Determining Investment Demand for Gold

1979 1986 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013p

Alternative Asset + + - +/- + +/- +/- + + + + +/- +/- + + + + +/- +/-

Currency Hedge + + - + + +/- +/- + + + +/- +/- +/- + + + + + +

Inflation Hedge + - - - - +/- +/- - +/- +/- +/- +/- +/- + +/- +/- + - -

Safe Haven + - - +/- + +/- +/- + + + + + + + + +/- +/- +/- +/-

Commodity + + - +/- + +/- + + + + +/- - - + + + + - -

Savings + + + + + + + + + + +/- +/- +/- + + + + + +/-

Positivity Factor 100% 67% 17% 58% 83% 58% 67% 83% 92% 92% 67% 58% 58% 100% 92% 84% 92% 50% 42%

Annual Price Change The Following Year

1980 1987 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201299.5% 21.5% -11.2% -5.3% 0.2% -3.1% 14.5% 17.1% 12.6% 8.9% 35.9% 15.4% 24.7% 11.7% 26.1% 27.9% 6.2%

Note: CPM estimates of market consensus.

18

黄金与各种经济指标的统计相关性Statistical Relation of Gold to Various Economic Factors

金价与美国通货膨胀 Gold Prices and U.S. Inflation

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

-2

0

2

3

5

7

9

11

12

14

16

Real Gold Prices Nominal Gold Prices CPI

$/Ounce Percent

20

Correlation: Gold with Inflation

YearReal Gold

PricesNominal Gold

Prices

68-12 0.33 0.4372-74 0.49 0.70

76-80 0.95 0.96

86-90 -0.73 -0.69

98-00 -0.93 -0.77

02-12 0.24 0.36

68-82 0.40 0.46

84-00 -0.25 -0.15

美国狭义货币供给与通货膨胀 U.S. Narrow Money Supply and U.S. Inflation

Jan-76 Sep-80 May-85 Jan-90 Sep-94 May-99 Jan-04 Sep-08-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

U.S. CPI

U.S. M1 Money Supply

Monthly Data, through February 2013M1 Money Supply and U.S. Inflation

Percent Percent

Correlation  

Time Lag Correlation

No lag -0.20

One Year Lag 0.13

Two Year Lag 0.20

21

货币超发与高通货膨胀没有必然联系Excessive Money Supply Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Inflation

Nov-8

1

Apr-83

Sep-8

4

Feb-8

6

Jul-8

7

Dec-8

8

May

-90

Oct-91

Mar

-93

Aug-94

Jan-9

6

Jun-9

7

Nov-9

8

Apr-00

Sep-0

1

Feb-0

3

Jul-0

4

Dec-0

5

May

-07

Oct-08

Mar

-10

Aug-11

Jan-1

3-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-3

-1

0

1

3

4

6

7

8

10

11

MZM Money Supply (LHS)

U.S. Inflation (CPI)

Percent Percent

相关性 : 负 0.16

月度数据，至 2013 年 2 月 Monthly Data, through February 2013

22

Correlation  

Time Lag Correlation

No lag -0.11

One Year Lag -0.12

Two Year Lag 0.01

美联储公布量化宽松政策之后的金价走势 Gold’s Performance After Fed Announcements of Monetary Easing

t-90 t-77 t-64 t-51 t-38 t-25 t-12 t+1 t+14 t+27 t+40 t+53 t+66 t+79 t+92 t+105t+118t+131t+144t+157t+17060

80

100

120

140

LSAP 1 LSAP 2 LSAP 3 LASP 4

指数 ( 以 QE 公布前一天金价为基准 ) Index (Day before QE Announcement = 100)

量化宽松政策公布后黄金的价格走势Performance of Gold Post-Quantitative Easing /Large Scale Asset Purchase Announcement, Daily Performance

* LSAP 1 Expansion

23

黄金供应和制造业需求 Supply and Fabrication Demand

矿山黄金产量位于历史高位

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e

13p

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Secondary Supply

Transitional Economies Exports to Market Economies

Market Economy Mine Production

黄金总供应 Total Gold Supply年度数据，预测至 2013 Annual, Projected Through 2013

百万盎司 Mln Oz 百万盎司 Mln Oz

转型经济体对市场经济体的黄金净出口

市场经济体矿山产量

再生金供应

25

Fact: Gold Mine Production

Has Risen 17% Since 2008 And Is Set To Rise Sharply Over

The Next Five Years Even In The Face Of The Recent Price Decline

26

Fiction: Dwindling Gold Supply

金矿供应在 2000 年至 2013 年之间变化不大Gold Mine Supply Is Nearly Unchanged Between 2000 and 2013

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Transitional Economies Exports to Market EconomiesMarket Economy Mine ProductionMln Oz

27

0.4%

但 2008 年以来供应量上升 1000 万盎司It Has Risen Over 10 Million Ounces Since 2008, However

08 09 10 11 12e 13p60

65

70

75

80

85

90 Transitional Economies Exports to Market EconomiesMarket Economy Mine Production

Mln Oz

28

17%

13 年金矿供应预计达有史以来第三高位Mine Supply Is Forecast To Be The Third Highest On Record in 2013

73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e

13p

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Transitional Economies Exports to Market Economies

Market Economy Mine Production

Mln Oz

29

金矿产能年增长量预计Estimated Annual Gross Additions to Gold Mine Production Capacity

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Post 20160

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

Post 2016 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011

Mln. Oz. Mln. Oz.

Note: Post 2015 data refers to 2016 through 2019.

30

事实是黄金矿产储量仍然可观Fact: There Are Large Reserves of Gold Available

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500Reserve Base

Reserves

Million Ounces Million Ounces

Gold Reserves and Reserve Base

Source: USGS. USGS discontinued its reporting of the Reserve Base as of 2009.

31

The World Is Not Running Out of Gold

Gold Reserves in 1981 and 2008, in millions of ounces.

1981Reserve Base 1,010Annual Production 44

Cumulative Production 1981-2007 1,833

2008Reserve Base 7,073

Total, Cumulative Production and Reserve Base 8,906

32

黄金制造业需求

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Electronics

Developed Countries - Jewelry

Developing Countries - Jewelry

黄金制造业需求 Gold Fabrication Demand预测至 2013 Projected Through 2013

Million Ounces 百万盎司 百万盎司 Million Ounces

Jewelry - Developing Countries – 首饰 发展中国家

Jewelry - Developed Countries

– 首饰 发达国家其他应用

牙科 / 医疗

电子产品

33

官方交易 Official Transactions

34

官方交易 ( 调整过土耳其央行的黄金增量 )

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13p

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

百万盎司 百万盎司

净增持量

净减持量

官方交易 Official Transactions年度数据 , 预测至 2013 Annual Data, Projected through 2013

注： 2011 年 9 “ ”月土耳其央行推出了一个新的货币政策工具称为 准备金选择机制 ，允许商业银行用黄金支付一部分土耳其里拉准备金的需求。这些黄金被加入到央行的货币黄金储备中。这些增量并不是在货币储备中直接购买黄金，而是属于商业银行或商业银行的客户。 2011 年这些增量达到 250万盎司， 2012 年则达到 530 万盎司，这些数据已经从本图表中排除

“根据 准备金选择机制”调整后的土耳其央行黄金增量Adjusted for Turkish Central Bank's ROM Gold Additions

35

央行为什么增加黄金储备 ?

1995 2000 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

美元U.S. Dollar

59.0%

美元U.S. Dollar

71.1%美元

U.S. Dollar61.8%

欧元Euro 27.3%

欧元Euro

18.3%欧元 Euro

24.1%

日元 Yen, 6.8%日元 Yen, 6.1%

日元 Yen, 4.1%英镑 Pound, 2.1% 英镑 Pound, 2.8% 英镑 Pound, 4.1%其他 Other, 4.8% 其他 Other, 1.8% 其他 Other, 5.9%

官方外汇储备的货币构成Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves

Note: 1995 Claims in Euros refers to the sum of claims in Deutschemarks, French frances, Netherland guilders, and the European Currency Unit. 2012 data is end-September. Other years is year-end data.Source: IMF Statistics Department COFER database and International Financial Statistics.

36

白银 Silver

37

主要结论 Key Conclusions• 投资需求 2012 年增长

32.1% ，达 1.225 亿盎司，创有史以来第六高记录。 Investment Demand increased 32.1% in 2012. The 122.5 million ounces of net annual investment demand in 2012 was the sixth highest yearly volume on record.

• 最新精炼总供应 2012 年增长1.5% ，得益于矿山和再生银产量的增长。 Total Newly Refined Supply rose 1.5% in 2012, driven by increases in both mine supply and secondary supplies.

• 由于珠宝、摄影和光伏产业的需求疲软，白银制造业需求2012 年降低 1.8% 。 Fabrication Demand fell 1.8% in 2012, driven by lower jewelry, photography, and photovoltaic demand.

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

68

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12e

13p

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

供应

制造业需求

白银市场供需，预测至 2013 年Silver Supply and Demand Balance Projected Through 2013

Million Ounces Million Ounces

38

投资需求 Investment Demand

39

白银投资需求

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

百万盎司$/ 盎司

价格 ( 左轴 )

Net Changes in Inventories 库存净增量

白银市场平衡状况 , 预期至 2013 , 价格至 2012 年Silver Market Balance, Projected Through 2013, Prices through 2012

净增加

净减少

40

白银投资需求分项趋势

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Other China India

Net Investment De-mand 净投资需求

各地域白银投资需求Investment Demand by Region

百万盎司 Mln Oz 百万盎司 Mln Oz

Note: Bars represent gross investment demand.

其他 中国印度

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Other ETPs Coins

各投资渠道的白银投资需求Investment Demand by Major Investment Vehicle

Note: Bars represent gross investment demand.

百万盎司 Mln Oz 百万盎司 Mln Oz

Net Investment De-mand 净投资需求

其他 交易所买卖产品 金币

41

银币制造需求 2012 年降低 18%

美国 United States

36.3%

加拿大Canada17.9%

奥地利 Austria9.4%

德国 Ger-many6.0%

中国 China23.1%

其他Other7.3%

2012 年银币制造 Silver Coin Fabrication in 2012银币总制造量： 9540 万盎司

Total Coin Fabrication: 95.4 Million Ounces

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13 YTD

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

年度美国铸币局美国银鹰币销量， 1 盎司币Annual U.S. Mint Sales of American Eagle Silver Bullion One-Ounce Coins

Note: Sales are to authorized dealers. 2013 reflects sales through March. Source: U.S. Mint via Bloomberg

百万盎司 Mln Oz 年度百分比变化 Percent Change YoY

销售增长比率 Sales Growth ( 右轴 )

42

制造业需求 Fabrication Demand

43

白银制造业需求 2012 年降低 1.8%

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

年度白银制造业总需求，预测至 2013年Annual Total Fabrication Demand Projected Through 2013

Net Imports into Transitional Economies

Super Conductors

Biocides

Other Countries

Photovoltaic

百万盎司 百万盎司

Photography 摄影

Jewelry and Silverware 首饰银器

Electronics 电子电器

其他用途 Other Uses

转型经济体净进口

超导体

杀虫剂

其他国家

光伏

44

电子领域白银需求增长放缓

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

电子、电池领域白银制造业需求，年度数据，预测至 2013年Silver Fabrication Demand for Electronics and Batteries Annual, Projected Through 2013

美国 U.S.

欧洲 Europe

百万盎司 百万盎司

其他国家Other Countries

日本Japan

中国 China

Note: Prior to 2000, China was excluded from market economy demand statistics.

45

去年光伏领域白银需求首次下降

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

PV Silver Demand (Left Scale)

Solar Panel Installations

Solar Panel Production

太阳能电池板白银需求，装机容量和产量， 预测至 2013 年Solar Panel Silver Demand, Installations, and Production Projected Through 2013

百万盎司 十亿瓦特

太阳能电池板产量

光伏业白银需求 ( 左轴 )

太阳能电池板装机容量

46

供应 Supply

2012 年矿产银年增长 1.5%

78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12e 13p0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

再生银供应 Secondary

Mine Production 矿产银产量

Million Ounces Million Ounces

转型经济体净出口量 Net Exports from Tran. Econ.

官方库存售银 Government Disposals

白银年总供应 , 预测至 2013 年Annual Total Supply, Projected Through 2013

48

白银矿山现金运营成本

0.20%0.60%1.00%1.40%1.80%2.20%2.60%3.00%3.40%3.80%4.20%4.60%5.00%5.40%5.80%6.20%6.60%7.00%7.40%7.80%8.20%8.60%9.00%9.40%9.80%10.20%10.60%11.00%11.40%11.80%12.20%12.60%13.00%13.40%13.80%14.20%14.60%15.00%15.40%15.80%16.20%16.60%17.00%17.40%17.80%18.20%18.60%19.00%19.40%19.80%20.20%20.60%21.00%21.40%21.80%22.20%22.60%23.00%23.40%23.80%24.20%24.60%25.00%25.40%25.80%26.20%26.60%27.00%27.40%27.80%28.20%28.60%29.00%29.40%29.80%30.20%30.60%31.00%31.40%31.80%32.20%32.60%33.00%33.40%33.80%34.20%34.60%35.00%35.40%35.80%36.20%36.60%37.00%37.40%37.80%38.20%38.60%39.00%39.40%39.80%40.20%40.60%41.00%41.40%41.80%42.20%42.60%43.00%43.40%43.80%44.20%44.60%45.00%45.40%45.80%46.20%46.60%47.00%47.40%47.80%48.20%48.60%49.00%49.40%49.80%50.20%50.60%51.00%51.40%51.80%52.20%52.60%53.00%53.40%53.80%54.20%54.60%55.00%55.40%55.80%56.20%56.60%57.00%57.40%57.80%58.20%58.60%59.00%59.40%59.80%60.20%60.60%61.00%61.40%61.80%62.20%62.60%63.00%63.40%63.80%64.20%64.60%65.00%65.40%65.80%66.20%66.60%67.00%67.40%67.80%68.20%68.60%69.00%69.40%69.80%70.20%70.60%71.00%71.40%71.80%72.20%72.60%73.00%73.40%73.80%74.20%74.60%75.00%75.40%75.80%76.20%76.60%77.00%77.40%77.80%78.20%78.60%79.00%79.40%79.80%80.20%80.60%81.00%81.40%81.80%82.20%82.60%83.00%83.40%83.80%84.20%84.60%85.00%85.40%85.80%86.20%86.60%87.00%87.40%87.80%88.20%88.60%89.00%89.40%89.80%90.20%90.60%91.00%91.40%91.80%92.20%92.60%93.00%93.40%93.80%94.20%94.60%95.00%95.40%95.80%96.20%96.60%97.00%97.40%97.80%98.20%98.60%99.00%99.40%99.80%-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

白银 2012 年均价 Average Silver Price 2012: $31.17

平均现金成本估值Average Estimated Cash Cost : $10.04

主产银矿山 2012 年现金运营成本Primary Silver Producers' Cash Costs in 2012

$/Ounce 美元 / 盎司 美元 / 盎司 $/Ounce

49

套期保值 Hedging

有效的生产商套期保值项目Effective Producer Gold Hedging Programs

$1,000.00$1,005.00$1,010.00$1,015.00$1,020.00$1,025.00$1,030.00$1,035.00$1,040.00$1,045.00$1,050.00$1,055.00$1,060.00$1,065.00$1,070.00$1,075.00$1,080.00$1,085.00$1,090.00$1,095.00$1,100.00$1,105.00$1,110.00$1,115.00$1,120.00$1,125.00$1,130.00$1,135.00$1,140.00$1,145.00$1,150.00$1,155.00$1,160.00$1,165.00$1,170.00$1,175.00$1,180.00$1,185.00$1,190.00$1,195.00$1,200.00$1,205.00$1,210.00$1,215.00$1,220.00$1,225.00$1,230.00$1,235.00$1,240.00$1,245.00$1,250.00$1,255.00$1,260.00$1,265.00$1,270.00$1,275.00$1,280.00$1,285.00$1,290.00$1,295.00$1,300.00$1,305.00$1,310.00$1,315.00$1,320.00$1,325.00$1,330.00$1,335.00$1,340.00$1,345.00$1,350.00$1,355.00$1,360.00$1,365.00$1,370.00$1,375.00$1,380.00$1,385.00$1,390.00$1,395.00$1,400.00$1,405.00$1,410.00$1,415.00$1,420.00$1,425.00$1,430.00$1,435.00$1,440.00$1,445.00$1,450.00$1,455.00$1,460.00$1,465.00$1,470.00$1,475.00$1,480.00$1,485.00$1,490.00$1,495.00$1,500.00$1,505.00$1,510.00$1,515.00$1,520.00$1,525.00$1,530.00$1,535.00$1,540.00$1,545.00$1,550.00$1,555.00$1,560.00$1,565.00$1,570.00$1,575.00$1,580.00$1,585.00$1,590.00$1,595.00$1,600.00$1,605.00$1,610.00$1,615.00$1,620.00$1,625.00$1,630.00$1,635.00$1,640.00$1,645.00$1,650.00$1,655.00$1,660.00$1,665.00$1,670.00$1,675.00$1,680.00$1,685.00$1,690.00$1,695.00$1,700.00$1,705.00$1,710.00$1,715.00$1,720.00$1,725.00$1,730.00$1,735.00$1,740.00$1,745.00$1,750.00$1,755.00$1,760.00$1,765.00$1,770.00$1,775.00$1,780.00$1,785.00$1,790.00$1,795.00$1,800.00$1,805.00$1,810.00$1,815.00$1,820.00$1,825.00$1,830.00$1,835.00$1,840.00$1,845.00$1,850.00$1,855.00$1,860.00$1,865.00$1,870.00$1,875.00$1,880.00$1,885.00$1,890.00$1,895.00$1,900.00$1,905.00$1,910.00$1,915.00$1,920.00$1,925.00$1,930.00$1,935.00$1,940.00$1,945.00$1,950.00$1,955.00$1,960.00$1,965.00$1,970.00$1,975.00$1,980.00$1,985.00$1,990.00$1,995.00$2,000.001,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Market Price

US$ / Ounce - Sales Price

Spot Sales

Revenue ProfilesNovember 1999 for First Quarter 2001

Gold Participatory Options Program For Feb - Dec 2013Indicatively priced on 15 January 2013

$1,450 Floor $1,750 $1,780

$1,000.00$1,005.00$1,010.00$1,015.00$1,020.00$1,025.00$1,030.00$1,035.00$1,040.00$1,045.00$1,050.00$1,055.00$1,060.00$1,065.00$1,070.00$1,075.00$1,080.00$1,085.00$1,090.00$1,095.00$1,100.00$1,105.00$1,110.00$1,115.00$1,120.00$1,125.00$1,130.00$1,135.00$1,140.00$1,145.00$1,150.00$1,155.00$1,160.00$1,165.00$1,170.00$1,175.00$1,180.00$1,185.00$1,190.00$1,195.00$1,200.00$1,205.00$1,210.00$1,215.00$1,220.00$1,225.00$1,230.00$1,235.00$1,240.00$1,245.00$1,250.00$1,255.00$1,260.00$1,265.00$1,270.00$1,275.00$1,280.00$1,285.00$1,290.00$1,295.00$1,300.00$1,305.00$1,310.00$1,315.00$1,320.00$1,325.00$1,330.00$1,335.00$1,340.00$1,345.00$1,350.00$1,355.00$1,360.00$1,365.00$1,370.00$1,375.00$1,380.00$1,385.00$1,390.00$1,395.00$1,400.00$1,405.00$1,410.00$1,415.00$1,420.00$1,425.00$1,430.00$1,435.00$1,440.00$1,445.00$1,450.00$1,455.00$1,460.00$1,465.00$1,470.00$1,475.00$1,480.00$1,485.00$1,490.00$1,495.00$1,500.00$1,505.00$1,510.00$1,515.00$1,520.00$1,525.00$1,530.00$1,535.00$1,540.00$1,545.00$1,550.00$1,555.00$1,560.00$1,565.00$1,570.00$1,575.00$1,580.00$1,585.00$1,590.00$1,595.00$1,600.00$1,605.00$1,610.00$1,615.00$1,620.00$1,625.00$1,630.00$1,635.00$1,640.00$1,645.00$1,650.00$1,655.00$1,660.00$1,665.00$1,670.00$1,675.00$1,680.00$1,685.00$1,690.00$1,695.00$1,700.00$1,705.00$1,710.00$1,715.00$1,720.00$1,725.00$1,730.00$1,735.00$1,740.00$1,745.00$1,750.00$1,755.00$1,760.00$1,765.00$1,770.00$1,775.00$1,780.00$1,785.00$1,790.00$1,795.00$1,800.00$1,805.00$1,810.00$1,815.00$1,820.00$1,825.00$1,830.00$1,835.00$1,840.00$1,845.00$1,850.00$1,855.00$1,860.00$1,865.00$1,870.00$1,875.00$1,880.00$1,885.00$1,890.00$1,895.00$1,900.00$1,905.00$1,910.00$1,915.00$1,920.00$1,925.00$1,930.00$1,935.00$1,940.00$1,945.00$1,950.00$1,955.00$1,960.00$1,965.00$1,970.00$1,975.00$1,980.00$1,985.00$1,990.00$1,995.00$2,000.001,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Market Price

US$ / Ounce - Sales Price

Spot Sales

Revenue ProfilesNovember 1999 for First Quarter 2001

Gold Participatory Options Program For Jun - Dec 2013Indicatively priced on 20 May 2013

$1,300 Floor

$1,400

$1,475

Possible Gold Hedge 15 January 2013 Possible Gold Hedge 20 May 2013

CPM Group Precious Metals Yearbooks & Other Reports

52

For general inquiries, email info@cpmgroup.com

53

谢谢！Thank You!