Göran BerndesChalmers University of Technology, Sweden

IEA Bioenergy Task 43

Expanding Bioenergy– Global Potentials and Regional Challenges

Atmospheric CO2 concentration

during the past 400 000 years(from the Vostok Ice Core)

Today ~392 ppm

Year 2100 if business as usual

Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands

Frontier forests 8000 years ago

Frontier forests today

Irrigated cereal production, Saudi Arabia

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Food

Source: FAO

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Food

Food2050

Source: FAO

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Food

Food2050

Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN

Bioenergy2050

(deployment at 440-600

ppm)

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Food

Food2050

Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN

Bioenergy2050

(deployment at 440-600

ppm)

Bioenergy2050

(deployment at <440 ppm)

Bioenergy in the Anthroposcene

Food

Food2050

Sources: FAO & IPCC SREN

Bioenergy2050

(deployment at 440-600

ppm)

Bioenergy2050

(deployment at <440 ppm)

Global industrial roundwood

To-do…

• Produce more food on a smaller area and with lower impacts• Increase biomass output from forestry while keeping the forests healthy and

respecting biodiversity requirements • Expand bioenergy production in ways that are acceptable from the

perspectives of resources, environment, and socio-economy

Room for bioenergy plantations?

Biophysical assessments indicate considerable bioenergy supply potentials

Land suitability for herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic plants (Fischer et al 2009)

…but requires high agriculture productivity growth (and it helps if we eat less meet)

A2: 2050A1: 2050

Illustrative example study: land availability for energy crops (Hoogwijk et al. 2005)

Large C stock and lots of biodiversity Smaller C stock and

less biodiversity

Crop growth

Dense forest Bioenergy plantation: Annual CO2 savings much lower than the CO2 emissions from forest conversion

CO2 Biofuel production and use

Closed loop

CO2

…and bioenergy expansion needs to be guided in attractive directions

Regional challenges and possibilities

Regional challenges and possibilities

Regional challenges and possibilities

Regional challenges and possibilities

Regional challenges and possibilities

THANK YOU!

• Integration of sugarcane ethanol production with livestock production• Stimulates livestock productivity increase, creating space for cane• Large local socioeconomic benefits and reduced risk of displacement

Bioenergy-food integration…Traditional cattle

20 %Forest reserve

Pasture80%

Integrated cattle sugarcane farm

20 %Forest reserve

Pasture (summer)

30%

Sugarcane50%

• Winter restricts productivity• 20 ha• 20 cows (13 in milk prod.)• 4.5 L/day

Sugarcane

Winter feed

Ethanol

Most of the potential for expanding cropland area is concentrated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of the area is presently covered by forests and other natural ecosystems and has more or less serious climate/soil constraints

Land suitability for cellulosic crop production (Fischer et al 2009)

Bioenergy Potentials: the supply side (part 1)

Cropland around year 2000

Total suitable for rain-fed crop production

• Establishment of bioenergy plantations can also lead to that CO2 is assimilated into soils and biomass, enhancing the GHG savings. Wisely located, designed and managed plantations can also provide additional environmental services, including be beneficial for biodiversity

Small C stock

Degraded pasture Bioenergy plantation: CO2 assimilation in growing plantation enhances CO2 benefits

CO2

Larger C stock

Crop growth

CO2

Closed loop

Biofuel production and use

Expanding bioenergy : challenges

There are significant yield gaps to exploit so potential for improving yield levels in many places

Bioenergy Potentials: the supply side (part 2)

But the intensification requires increased inputs of e.g., N

Expanding bioenergy : challenges

Pastures = 25 x sugarcane area

Bioenergy-food integration…

• Integration of sugarcane ethanol production with livestock production• Stimulates livestock productivity increase, creating space for cane• Large local socioeconomic benefits and reduced risk of displacement

Bioenergy-food integration…Traditional cattle

20 %Forest reserve

Pasture80%

Integrated cattle sugarcane farm

20 %Forest reserve

Pasture (summer)

30%

Sugarcane50%

• Winter restricts productivity• 20 ha• 20 cows (13 in milk prod.)• 4.5 L/day

Sugarcane

Winter feed

Ethanol

Water implications of bioenergy

Pastures = 25 x sugarcane area

Water implications of bioenergy

SIWI Seminar Aug 12 2007. Berndes, Chalmers, Sweden Slide 12

010002000300040005000

2005 20500

10002000300040005000

2005 2050

010002000300040005000

2005 2050

010002000300040005000

2005 2050

010002000300040005000

2005 2050

Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

S Asia

SE Asia

E Asia

Food

Bioenergy (212 EJ energy crops)

ET from food and bioenergy, 2005 and 2050 (km3/year)

Role of bioenergy in strategies to…

• Increase productive use of blue/green water flows• improve water productivity in agriculture

Role of bioenergy in strategies to…• Increase productive use of blue/green water flows• improve water productivity in agriculture

Historic land use change

Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands

Historic land use change

300-400 Mha cropland

400-500 Mha pastures

ca 1600 Mha cropland

ca 3200 Mha pastures

Year 1700

Present situation (roughly)

Source: Klein Goldewijk, RIVM, The Netherlands

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Grassland with livestock

Cropland for bioenergy

Grassland with livestock

Forest

dLUC

iLUC

System Boundary

Econom

ic P

ressures

Deforestation

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.Bioenergy System Reference System

Grassland with livestock

Cropland for bioenergy

Grassland with livestock

Forest

dLUC

iLUC

System Boundary

Econom

ic

Deforestation

Bioenergy System Reference System

Grassland with livestock

Cropland for bioenergy

Grassland with livestock

Forest

dLUC

iLUC

System Boundary

Deforestation

Macroeconomicfactors

Displaced actorsRe-establish elsewhere

LUC emissions...

GHG benefits of expanding bioenergy?

Source: Berndes 2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

0

25

50

75

100

Accumulated emissionsto the atmosphere (Pg)

Share of annual emissions from fossil fuel burning (right axis)

Land use change

Fossil fuel burning

Cement manufactureand gas flaring

(%)

Reports available for download:- www.ieabioenergy.com- www.ipcc.ch