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Global Index Briefing:All Country World ex-US
MSCI SectorsYardeni Research, Inc.
January 30, 2019
Dr. Ed Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
All Country World ex-US Sectors Stock Price Indexes 3All Country World ex-US Sectors Versus 200-Dma 4All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Earnings 5All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Revenues 6All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Profit Margin 7All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward P/Es 8All Country World ex-US Sectors Relative Forward P/Es 9All Country World ex-US Sectors Market Cap & Earnings Share 10All Country World ex-US Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 11All Country World ex-US Sectors STEG vs LTEG 12
Figure 1.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050
100
150
200
250
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
200-day moving average
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
125
175
225
275325
1/24
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
125
175
225
275325375
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050
90
130
170
210250
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
150
225
300375450525
1/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20125
215
305
395
485575
1/24
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2040
80
120
160
200240
1/24
FINANCIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050
75
100
125
150175
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
105
135
165
195225255
1/24
HEALTH CARE
Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2075
105
135
165
195225255
1/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Stock Price Indexes
Page 3 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 2.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*(price index as percentage of 200-day moving average)
% from 200-dma (-8.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1/24
INDUSTRIALS
(-5.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-4.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(-8.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1/24
ENERGY
(-6.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1/24
MATERIALS
(-6.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1/24
FINANCIALS
(-4.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-0.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30
-15
0
15
30
1/24
HEALTH CARE
(-3.3)
Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
1/24
UTILITIES
(2.5) yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Versus 200-Dma
Page 4 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 3.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
8
14
2026
2018 19 1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*(Forward earnings by sector)
AnnualForward**
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
10
13
16
1922
20
1819 1/24
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
9
11
13
15
17
2018
191/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201.5
4.5
7.5
10.513.516.520
1819 1/24INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
15
25
354555
2018 19
1/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
20
30
40
50
20
18
19 1/24
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 206
8
10
1214161820
20
18
191/24
FINANCIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
201819
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 206
8
10
12
1420
18 19
1/24
HEALTH CARE
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
* Ratio scale.** Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
9
11
13
15
2018
19
1/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Earnings
Page 5 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 4.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20150
175
200
225
250
20
18
19
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*(Forward revenues by sector)
Annual
Forward**
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20225
250
275
300
325
350
375
2018 19 1/24
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20125
150
175
200
225
250
201819
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2080
100
120
140
160
20
18
19
1/24INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20250
300
350
400
450
500550
2018 19
1/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20225
275
325
375
425
20
18
191/24
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2065
75
85
95
105
20
18
19 1/24
FINANCIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2045
60
75
90
105
201819
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2040
50
60
70
8090
100
201819
1/24HEALTH CARE
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
* Ratio scale.** Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20110
135
160
185
210
235
2018 19 1/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Revenues
Page 6 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
1/2418 1920
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(Forward profit margin by sector)
AnnualForward*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
3
4
5
6
7
18
19 201/24
INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1819
20
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
2
4
6
8
10
12
1/2418
19 20INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
18 19
20 1/24
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
18
1920
1/24
MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
12
16
20
1819 20 1/24
FINANCIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 207
8
9
10
11
12
13
18 19 20
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2012
13
14
15
16
17
1819
20
1/24
HEALTH CARE
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203
4
5
6
7
8
9
1819
20 1/24
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward Profit Margin
Page 7 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 6.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
35
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(Forward P/Es by sector)
(11.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
8
11
14
17
20
1/24
INDUSTRIALS(13.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
12
14
16
18
20
22
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(18.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
15
20
25
30
35
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(13.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
1/24
ENERGY(10.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
8
12
16
20
1/24
MATERIALS(11.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 206
8
10
12
14
16
1/24
FINANCIALS
(9.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
11
14
17
20
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(15.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
1/24
HEALTH CARE
(17.7)
Source: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
11
14
17
20
1/24
UTILITIES
(13.1)
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Forward P/Es
Page 8 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 7.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*(Relative forward P/Es by sector)
(0.86)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1/24
INDUSTRIALS
(0.94)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(1.29)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(0.94)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1/24
ENERGY
(0.73)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1/24
MATERIALS
(0.82)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1/24
FINANCIALS
(0.68)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1/24COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(1.11)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1/24
HEALTH CARE
* Forward P/E of index relative to All Country World MSCI forward P/E. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
(1.28)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1/24
UTILITIES
(0.94) yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Relative Forward P/Es
Page 9 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 8.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203
5
7
9
11
13
15
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(percent)
Capitalization Share (10.7)Earnings Share* (10.9)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 208
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1/24
INDUSTRIALS(11.8)(11.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2056789
10111213
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES(10.0)(6.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
4
6
8
10
12
14
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(7.9)(7.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/24
ENERGY(7.3)(8.8)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/24
MATERIALS
(7.6)(8.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2015
20
25
30
35
40
1/24
FINANCIALS
(22.1)(28.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 203
5
7
9
11
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(7.7)(6.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 204
5
6
7
8
9
10
1/24
HEALTH CARE(8.3)(5.7)
* Using consensus 12-month forward earnings forecasts. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 202
3
4
5
6
7
8
1/24
UTILITIES
(3.3)(3.1)
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors Market Cap & Earnings Share
Page 10 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYNet Earnings Revisions Index*
NERI (-13.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30
-20
-10
0
10
Jan
INDUSTRIALS
(-7.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-6.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Jan
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(-11.5)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Jan
ENERGY
(-8.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
MATERIALS
(-11.6)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
FINANCIALS
(-8.4)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-7.2)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
HEALTH CARE
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
(-7.0)
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan
UTILITIES
(-3.0)
All Country World ex-US Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index
Page 11 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 10.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
1/24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(percent) STEG capped at 40%
STEG* (8.3)LTEG* (10.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-15
0
15
30
45
1/24
INDUSTRIALS(5.0)(9.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-5
0
5
10
15
20
1/24
CONSUMER STAPLES
(10.3)(9.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1/24
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYSTEG capped at 40%
(-1.1)(9.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1/24
ENERGY
(4.0)(16.7)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1/24
MATERIALS
(2.8)(5.5)
STEG capped at 50%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1/24
FINANCIALS
(7.9)(11.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1/24
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(10.3)(10.1)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1/24
HEALTH CARE
(5.7)(8.4)
* STEG: 12-month forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1/24
UTILITIES(11.7)
STEG capped at 40%
(5.9)
yardeni.com
All Country World ex-US Sectors STEG vs LTEG
Page 12 / January 30, 2019 / Global Index Briefing: All Country World ex-US MSCI Sectors www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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