Emanuele TaibiPower Sector Transformation Strategies

IRENAEnergy Modelling Platform for Europe 2018 - 25 September 2018

GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION 2050

A ROADMAP TO

2050

Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide over 90% of the reduction in energy-related CO2

Annual energy-related emissions are expected to remain flat (under current policies in the Reference Case) but must be reduced by over 70% to bring temperature rise to below the 2°C goal. Renewable energy and energy

efficiency measures provide over 90% of the reduction required.

Annual energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions, 2015-2050

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An upper limit of 2 degrees with a 2/3 chance of success:

790 Gt energy CO2emissions budget 2015-2100

Significant improvements in energy intensity are needed and the share of renewable energy must rise

Both renewable energy and energy efficiency are at the heart of the energy transition and climate goals. By 2050 action in both areas must be scaled up considerably.

Energy intensity improvement rate and renewable energy share in TFEC, Reference and REmap cases

Source: Historical energy intensity improvement values from (SE4ALL, 2016), projections based on IRENA analysis

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Energy use indicators in Power

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Energy use indicators in transport

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Fossil fuel production must decline

Under the REmap Case, both oil and coal demand decline significantly and continuously, and natural gas demand peaks around 2027. In 2050, natural gas is the largest source of fossil fuel.

Fossil fuel use (left), 2015-2050; decline in fossil fuel use by sector - REmap Case relative to Reference Case

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Hydrogen in the energy transition

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Decarbonising Transport: FCEVs: performances of conventional vehicles

FCEVs are complementary to BEVs in decarbonising road transport

Decarbonising Industry: Replace fossil-fuel produced hydrogen

Replace fossil-fuel based feedstocks

Decarbonising the gas grid: Take advantage of low electricity prices

Provide seasonal storage for solar and wind

Provide grid services from electrolysers

Hydrogen and electricity, as energy carriers, are complementary in a world dominated by renewable energy

Hydrogen in industry

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Replacing current H2 production from fossil fuels with H2 from renewable power can displace almost 10 EJ of fossil fuels today. Mainly feedstocks for fertilizers (ammonia), plastics and oil upgrade to low-sulphur diesel

Hydrogen in the steel industry

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Biomass flows (energy and materials)

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Biomass can be used:

- in biorefineries to produce a variety of valuable chemicals and pharmaceuticals

- directly as building materials, displacing carbon-intensive steel and concrete

- to create plastics (in biorefineries) or replace plastics (direct use of paper packaging)

- Residues from farms and forests can be combusted in efficient furnaces or district heating plants to displace fossil fuels

Batteries in the energy transition

• Ca. 29 TWh of battery capacity in battery electric vehicles (i.e. cars, buses, LDV, 2 and 3 wheelers)

• Ca. 6.5 TWh of stationary batteries

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Lithium reserves are ca. 14 Mt, resources ca. 47 Mt (USGS, 2017)

End-of-Life Batteries

• Currently almost all lead-acid batteries are recycled

• Estimations forecast that more than 180.000 tonnes of lithium-ion batteries will reach their EOL in 2018, of that approx. half can be recycled (10% of that will come from electric vehicles)

• Major recycling markets up to now in Asia, such as China and South Korea

• Growing industry emerging that converts industrial batteries for reuse in utility-scale energy storage applications

• Raw material recovery potential and efficiency still being researched for recycling purposes (e.g. Cobalt)

• Second life opportunities in energy storage markets are tremendous if enabling frameworks and market conditions are given

PV Materials - Recovery Potential

2030

• Cumulative technical potential for end-of-life material recovery under regular-loss scenario:

• 1.6 TW of installed PV capacity and 1.7 Million tons of modules that reached end-of-life

In 2050, over 7 TW of installed PV capacity and est. over 100 Million tons of modules that reached end-of-life

Geopolitics of Energy Transition in the era of renewable energy

• Global Commission established by IRENA

• Supported by Germany, Norway, UAE

• Around 20 members, incl. Andris Piebalgs

• Established January 2018

• Deliverable is a report for the IRENA Assembly January 2019

• Meeting in Berlin 18-20 April 2018, 3 more meetings planned

• Energy security and new dependencies, economics, sustainability aspects14

A new CEM Campaign

Long-term energy scenarios for the clean energy transition (LTES)

Goal: promote the wider adoption and improved use of long-term energy scenarios for clean energy transition

• Launch: May 2018 at the 9th CEM meeting, Copenhagen

• Duration: one year (possible extension to multiple years)

• Lead countries: Denmark, Germany

• Operating agent: IRENA

Three focus themes

» Share experience in the use of energy scenarios for national and regional policy planning

» Identify ways to improve scenarios to make them relevant to private sector investment decisions

Use of scenarios for policy making

» Showcase new tools & methods to address new, disruptive elements of the transition

» Improve modelling of end-use sectors, sector coupling, and variable renewable energy integration

» Share experience in building capacity within your country

» Identify channels to build capacity in countries with limited experience

Development of scenarios for clean energy transition

Capacity building and enhancement

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Copyright © IRENA 2018Unless otherwise indicated, material in this slide deck may be used freely, shared or reprinted, so long as IRENA is acknowledged as the source.

To know more about the Global Energy Transformation, this and other IRENA publications are available for download from www.irena.org/publications

For further information or to provide feedback, please contact IRENA at info@irena.org

For further information or to provide feedback on the socio-economic analysis please contact the Policy team at policy@irena.org, on the REmap analysis please contact the REmap team at remap@irena.org.

Battery Materials

• Lithium and Cobalt demand depend on battery composition.

• With todays technology, cumulative demand for Lithium may approach reserve levels and Cobalt demand may exceed reserve levels.

• Cobalt is today largely a by-product of Copper and Nickel mining in DRC.

• However industry is aware of the problem and looking for solutions.

• Copper demand may rise substantially, needs a closer look.

18Source: Vaalma et al., Nature 2018

Extending the PV Value Chain and Innovation Opportunities

• As R&D and technological advances continue with a maturing industry, the composition of PV panels is expected to require less raw materials.

• Rapid global PV growth is expected to generate a robust secondary market for panel components and materials.

• As current PV installations reach the final decommissioning stage, recycling and material recovery will be preferable to panel disposal.

Proposed activities

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• Dedicated CEM campaign events, for best practice exchanges among partners and the development of proposals to enhance scenario planning capability

• Participation by the partners in other relevant events to both inform the campaign and to promote the best practice use of scenarios.

• Production of reports and recommendations, informed by events and by additional analytical work by IRENA and partners