energy system of the future evolution or revolution? · 2019-07-05 · natural gas demand growing...
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Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019 1
ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION?MARIE-NOELLE SEMERIA, CTO
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences
June 25th, 2019
FAST CHANGING WORLD : CLIMATE CHALLENGE
33 BT CO2 EMISSIONS 2018 HISTORIC PEAK!
2Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
FAST CHANGING WORLD :
ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGESFAST CHANGING WORLD :
ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGES
FAST CHANGING WORLD :
ELECTRICITY FOR ALL CHALLENGES
3Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
FAST CHANGING WORLD : ELECTRIFICATION CHALLENGE
2018 PEAK120.5 g/CO2/Km
202195 g/CO2/Km
202580.75 g/CO2/Km
203066.5g/CO2/Km
EUROPEAN
REGULATION
4Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
FAST CHANGING WORLD : ACCEPTABILITY CHALLENGE
5Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
FAST CHANGING WORLD : THE DIGITAL PEDAGOGY CHALLENGE
6
“The algorithm thinking that can
digitize everything allows us to
grasp the individual in its plurality.
The present sciences are knowledge
of singularities”
Michel Serres
Philosopher and
historian of sciences.
“The more information we receive,
the more we are led to relate things
that are not related to each other.
Our universe is disparate, thinking is
connecting the disparate”
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
7
BECOMING THE RESPONSIBLE ENERGY MAJOR
We are a major energy player committed to supplying
affordable energy to a growing population, addressing
climate change and meeting new customer expectations.
We are committed to better energy that is safer,
more affordable, cleaner, and accessible to as many
people as possible.
Innovation lies at the heart
of our commitment to better energy.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman, CEO TOTAL
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
8
Primary energy demand and CO2 emissions
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
ENERGY OUTLOOK 2040
9
Two scenarios: Momentum and Rupture
Rupture
Anticipating technological breakthroughs
and strong shift in public policies
• Mass electricity storage and switch to
renewable power generation
• EV 60% of total LV fleet by 2040
• Faster electrification in all sectors
• Steeper decrease of energy intensity,
ending with same energy demand level
in 2040 as in 2015
Energy demand based on
• Announced policies and regulations
• EV: 50% of sales, 32% of total fleet by
2040
• Adopting state of the art technologies
• Energy intensity falls by 2.2 % pa
Momentum
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
A RUPTURE REQUIRED FOR A 2°C PATHWAY
10
15
45
2015 2040
200
400
CO2 emissions
GtCO2/yr
Global primary energy demand
Mboe/d
Renewables
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Momentum
2015 2040Rupture
2040Momentum
Rupture
IEA CPS IEA NPS IEA SDS
Key drivers
GDP: + 3.3 % p.a.
Population: ~9 Bn in 2040
Access to energy: ~1 Bn people without access to electricity in 2018
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
OIL DEMAND DOMINATED BY TRANSPORT AND
PETROCHEMICALS
11
Emerging markets underpinning rising demand
29%
15%
6%5%
12%
6%
8%
7%
12%
80
100
2015 2040
Global oil demand
Mb/d
2015 global oil* demand
%, Mb/d
Petrochemicals
IndustryLight dutyvehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
AviationMarine
Other
Transport
Res & Com**
92.5 Mb/d
Power generation
Road
MarineAviation
Petchems Powergen
Industry &
Other
Res & Com
* Hydrocarbon liquids, including NGLs, excluding biofuels
** Residential & Commercial Sector
55% of oil demand in transportMain growth in transportation
and petrochemicals
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS
12
Global natural gas demand
Bcm/yr
2015 global natural gas demand
%, Bcm/yr
3,400 Bcm/yr
Power generation and industry pulling-up global natural gas demand
13%
41%24%
21%
Power & Heat
generation
Other*
Transport
Industry
Residential
& Commercial
* Including autoconsumption
6 000
2015 2040
+1.8%per year
Power gen
Industry
TransportRes
& Com
Other
All sectors growing, dominated
by power generation and industry
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
20 000
45 000
2015 2040
19%
35%
44%
POWER DEMAND GROWING IN ALL SECTORS
13
Global power demand
TWh/yr
2015 global power demand
%, TWh/yr
24,200 TWh/yr
Growing twice as fast as global energy demand
Other*
Transport
Industry
Residential
& Commercial
* Including losses
+2.2%per year
Res & Com
Industry
Transport
Other
All sectors growing, dominated
by residential & commercial and industry
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
11%
16%
4%
2%
39%
4%
23%
20 000
45 000
2015 2040
POWER GENERATION: MORE LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY
14
Global power generation
TWh/yr
2015 global power generation
%, TWh/yr
24,200 TWh/yr
Hydrocarbon share of generation falls to half in 2040
NuclearOther
Bio
Oil
* Including losses
+2.2%per year
Wind & Solar
Other Renewables
Nat Gas
Other fossil fuels
NuclearHydro
Solar
Wind
Coal
Gas
Renewables and natural gas dominating growth
Decrease of carbon intensity by one third
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
WORLD EMISSIONS: TOWARDS LESS COAL
15
GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS
Source: adapted from the IEA report CO2 Emissions
from Fuel Combustion, 2016 edition. Spread of
emission sources (%) based on 2010 IPCC report.
OIL AND GAS
37%
of GHG emissions
EMISSIONS FROM OIL AND GAS
~ 10%
generated during production and refining
~ 90%
associated with the use (combustion) of
products
Emissions
kgCO2/kg
Gas CH4 + O2 => CO2 + 2 H2O
16 g 44 g 2.8
Oil (CH2)n + O2 => nCO2 + 2n H2O +…
14 g 44 g 3.1
54 Gt
CO2e
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
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Preparing for future growth
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
OUR AMBITION: STRATEGY CONTRIBUTING TO
TACKLE CLIMATE CHANGE
17
Responsible contribution : reducing carbon intensity of our energy sales
• Further improving
our operations efficiency
• Growing in natural gas
• Developing low carbon
electricity
• Increasing storage
• Investing in carbon sinks
(CCUS & forests) post-2030
50
100
2015 2040
IEA NPS
IEA SDS
2030
Possible Sales Mix 2040Natural gas : 45-55%
Oil (incl.biofuels): 30 -40%
Low carbon electricity: 15-20%
-15%
2015-30
NPS: New Policy scenario ~2.7°C by 2100
SDS: Sustainable Development scenario ~2°C by 2100
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
18
PRIORITY 1: ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF INDUSTRIALS
OPERATIONS
• Invest in electrification
• Develop artificial intelligence
• Switch to low carbon energies
• Promote carbon price
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
19
PRIORITY 2: INTEGRATION ALONG GAS VALUE CHAINReporting Integrated Gas Renewable & Power segment from 2019
~6 M customers20 Mt/y LNG 40 Mt/y portfolio 20 Mt/y capacity
Production &
Liquefaction
Trading &
ShippingRegasification
Gas & Power
Marketing
Note: 2020 forecast
#2 Global LNG player #1 European player > 10% market share
France + Belgium
Ichthys & Yamal
ramping up
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
PRIORITY 3: SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON ELECTRICITY
BUSINESS
20
Integrated approach: production, trading and marketing
Supply
& Trading
Europe
~3 GW* by 2020
Gas to electricity
Worldwide
~7 GW by 2022
Renewables
to electricity
4 M customers in Europe
in 2018 targeting
7 M by 2022
Marketing
* Including 2 planned CCGT acquisitions from EPH, 1 in development
** Source Wood Mackenzie
• Solar, wind, hydro
• Grid stability
• Energy management system
Storage is key
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
21
PRIORITY 4: STORAGE
Some other R&D Partners of Saft
Saft IRIS TEAM;
R&T & Incubators
Program and its Projects
(Idoles, H2020)²
CEA (Grenoble, Bordeaux)
20 FTE working in Idoles
& Solide
Montreal University (Pr Dolle)
TOTAL Prospective Lab;
Materials for Energy
European Partners of the ALLIANCE
Universities & Labs :
IPREM, ICMCB, UMD, LEPMI, Crismat, UMD (USA), PSI (CH),CIC Energigune (S), Fraunhofer (D), …
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
22
PRIORITY 5: CARBON SINK BUSINESSES
Carbon sinks mandatory to reach zero net emissions by second half
of the century
Natural sinks
• Investing in preservation of forests, mangrove
and degraded lands
• Creating a dedicated business unit with
agro-environmental experts and 100 M$/y
investments budget from 2020
CCUS: looking for profitable business models
• 10% of R&D program
• Successful pilot in Lacq
• Projects in Norway (Northern Lights) and
UK (Clean Gas Project)
Photo foret
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019 23
Our R&D Challenges
3 MOVES
24
Develop competences and acquire the right skills
Modeling
Data Science,
Artificial
Intelligence
Energy
Management
Novel Services
New Energy Mix Gas,
Energy Efficiency,
Renewable Energies,
Energy Storage,
CO2 Capture, Storage
and Conversion
Circular economy
New Mobility
New Materials
Nanotechnologies
etc.
Digitalization Climate New Frontiers
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
TECH COMPANIES HYBRIDATION WITH INDUSTRY –
THE ALPHABET EXAMPLE
25
The 4.0 revolution, is driven by the native development of cyberphysical systems with
extensive use of sensors, data, automation, computing and AI
Tech companies have this in their DNA with all their systems designed for the billion customers
scale
Industrial companies bring domain knowledge, expertise, use cases that will bring value to
their company
Partnerships required to make the 4.0 revolution happen in the real world
Autonomous car
and mobility
Retail
Finance
Healthcare
Energy
Sanofi-Google JV for
personalized diabetes treatment
GAIA: Use AI to increase
geoscientists productivity and
focus on high added value tasks
New and innovative consumer
experience through technology
and AI
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
26
CARBON CAPTURE
OGCI
Northern Lights in Norway• First integrated industrial-scale project
• FID 2020/21- start up 2023/24
Chemical looping combustion• Financial support from China & EU
• 3 MW demonstration unit planned
Research with Stanford & Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory• Enable CO2 storage at gigaton scale
• 20 M$ over 5 years
Chaire with IFP• Direct Air capture
Targeting 10% of R&D budget on CCUS
Accelerate deployment of CCUS technologies through open innovation
EGE EnergyRecycling Plant, Oslo
NorcemCement Factory
With the financial support of
CO2 Offshore
storage
CO2 transportation
by ship
NORTHERN LIGHTS PROJECT
1.5 Mt Co2 / Y
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
27
OIL AND GAS CLIMATE INITIATIVE (OGCI)
• OGCI is a voluntary, CEO-led Oil and Gas industry initiative launched in
2015 which aims to catalyze meaningful actions on climate change
through collaboration and engagement
• 13 member companies, IOCs and NOCs, representing around 30% of the
world’s O&G production (~42 Mboe/d)
• Members companies share a will to collaborate, a support to the
Paris agreement, and a commitment to work (direct engagement from the
CEOs to drive the initiative, active participation in OGCI program)
• Main workstreams : CCUS, methan emissions, life cycle assessment,
low emission program, transportation
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
28
MOBILITY
MOBILITY
& TRANSPORTATION
MOBILITY
& INFRASTRUCTURE
Lightweight structure,
eco-design
Energy Management(Full battery pack demo)
Health & Well being
in interiors
Seamless connectivity
services
Robotic energy charging
& maintenance platform
Energy stationary
storage
Smart charging testbed
oriented EV users(Berkeley)
Energy distribution
& fleet mobility
simulation
Mobility Hub for eV fleet
& Autonomous Vehicle
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
29
GAS, RENEWABLES & POWER IN AFRICA
Access to LNG
Studying FSRU projects, in
Ivory Coast and Benin.
Developing power plants and
decentralized photovoltaic
systems, through Total Solar
and Total Eren
Access to Energy program
3 million lamps sold reaching
13.5 million people
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
“MICROGRID” SMART GAS STATION @LAGOS (NIGERIA)
30
• “Lekki 2” gas station, equipped with PV panels (27.4kWp, Lead-Acid batteries, diesel generator, and an Energy Management System provided by Total R&D
• Resilient to daily grid outages
• The need of diesel generator for power supply continuity almost disappeared since the hybrid installation was complete
• System operational since September 2018
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
Shutterstock | Droits acquittés par la R&D
Groupe
5 R&D FOCUS
31
DIGITAL
OPERATIONAL
EFFICIENCY
NEW SERVICES
& PRODUCTS
LOW
CARBON MIX
31,1%
36,2%7,1%
22,4%
3,2%
$1.1B*
*Total in 2018 including Hutchinson - & TEV without Focus areas distribution
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019
32
THE UNITED NATIONS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
• To eradicate poverty,
protect the planet and
ensure that all people
enjoy peace and
prosperity.
• Adopted by the United
Nations member states
in 2015, these goals are
a call for action by
countries, businesses
and civil society to
achieve a universal
ambition by 2030.
17 GOALS
Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences- June 25th, 2019