benefits of jodi for opec a focus on natural gas data · natural gas forecasting accuracy. •...
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Presented by:
JODI-Gas Information SessionMalabo, 26 November 2019
Benefits of JODI for OPECA focus on natural gas data
OPEC Secretariat
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2
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Disclaimer
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 3
• OPEC’s contribution to JODI
• JODI natural gas data & their importance for OPEC
• JODI natural gas data usage in OPEC research
• Interaction between energy commodities & data transparency
• Conclusion
Outline
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4
JODI: A manifestation of the producer-consumer dialogue
7th IEF Meeting in Riyadh 2000• OPEC as one of the
participating organizations
• Strong support from the very early days of the Initiative
• Efforts to increase oil data transparency for the benefit of producers & consumers
Launching of Joint Oil Data Exercise (JODE) - 2001• Designing the original
oil data questionnaire a challenge
• Substantial contribution to the methodology & overall design
• OPEC - one of the founder organizations
November 2005 (Saudi Arabia): Launch of JODI world oil database
March 2012 (Kuwait): Launch of the extended JODI world oil database
May 2014 (Moscow): Launch of JODI world gas database
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5
OPEC’s strong support to JODI continuous
Training workshops
Technical cooperation
Capacity building Dialogue
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 6
OPEC MCs are key players in natural gas
58173
72676
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
billion scu m OPEC proven natural gas reserves
2018: 35% of total world1.7
16.2
0
5
10
15
20
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018
%OPEC marketed natural gas production
Share to total world production
Steady increase in production
217
547
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
billion scu m OPEC natural gas demand
Strong domestic consumption;to a great extent substitution for oil
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) 2019
73
69
6065707580859095
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
billion scu m OPEC natural gas net exports
Continuous net exporter
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 7
• Oil market assessment requires assessment of natural gas markets; increasing interaction also with other commodities
Natural gas strongly interacts with oil…
34%
24%
27%
4%7%
4%
World energy demand by energy commodity in 2018
Oil Natural Gas CoalNuclear Hydro electric Renewables
Source: OPEC Secretariat & BP Statistical Energy Review 2019
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
mtoemtoe World natural gas & NGLs production
Natural gas NGLs (right axis)
Source: OPEC Secretariat
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 8
…both in primary & secondary side
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Share of total world NGLs in natural gas production
Source: OPEC Secretariat
• Natural gas & oil interaction– Primary side (NGLs)– Secondary side (all products,
specifically the lighter, LPG, naphtha)– Petrochemical industry
62
3 3 1
Production of petroleum products Shares derived from natural gas
LPG/NGLsNaphthaGasolineDiesel
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 9
JODI is complementary for OPEC research
OPEC RESEARCH• Pioneer in energy data collection• Data driven research & decision
making• Comprehensive information system
to support decisions
JODI• Essential for energy data transparency• Official freely accessible country data• Oil & natural gas fundamental flows• Wide coverage of oil & natural gas flows • Technical metadata
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 10
JODI oil is very rich in coverage
Official data from 100+ countries
Short reporting lag
Coverage of all oil flows
Coverage of main oil products
Complete oil balance
General definitions/guidelines
Manuals
Metadata
• Unique information, not accessible elsewhere– NGLs.– Naphtha.– Direct use.
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 11
JODI gas provides most recent official data and is continuously improving
Coverage expansion
Natural gas definitions manual
Improvements in data quality
Release of natural gas data 2014
Natural gas conference 4-5 June 2013
Focus on data quality (manual)
Launch of data collection (end 2012)
• 85+ countries
• All main flows
• Monthly gas balance
• Metadata
• Definitions
• Manuals
• As for oil, the JODI natural gas database is an important data source and utilized for updating natural gas production, demand and trade information;
• There are industry reference data sources including BPstatistics, Cedigaz, IEA statistics and EIA statistics, but
• None of these natural gas data sources provide monthly data.
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 12
JODI data used by OPEC to assess natural gas markets
• Natural gas production: Natural gas production forecasts based on historical consumption data; as interaction between natural gas and oil is significant, oil forecasting accuracy depends partly also on natural gas forecasting accuracy.
• Natural gas demand: Natural gas demand forecast is based on adding growth projections to an existing baseline – similar issues as for natural gas production.
• Natural gas demand for electricity generation: Natural gas serves as substitution for residual fuel and crude direct use.
• Natural gas trade: Natural gas trade flows; in particular LNG and pipeline trade.
• Natural gas stocks: Inventories reflect interaction between supply and demand.
For all the above flows, JODI provides the most recent information – on monthly basis.
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
USA
Chi
naC
anad
aJa
pan
Ger
man
yU
KIta
lyEg
ypt
Aus
tral
iaIn
dia
Kor
eaTu
rkey
Net
herla
nds
Alg
eria
Mex
ico
Qat
arFr
ance
Spai
nU
krai
neB
ahra
inC
hine
se T
aipe
iPo
land
Bel
arus
Vene
zuel
a
bl s cu m Jan-19 to Aug-19 natural gas demand by country
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
USA
Rus
sia
Can
ada
Chi
naA
ustr
alia
Nor
way
Alg
eria
Mal
aysi
aEg
ypt
Indo
nesi
aN
iger
iaU
krai
neTh
aila
ndN
ethe
rland
sTr
inid
ad Iraq
Indi
aM
exic
oB
ahra
inA
zerb
aija
nVe
nezu
ela
Ukr
aine
Kuw
ait
Bol
ivia
bl s cu m Jan-19 to Aug-19 natural gas production by country
85
232119
18
119
6 5
4 4 3 333222 11Aug-19 closing stocks
USA GermanyNetherlands CanadaItaly FranceAustria HungaryJapan KoreaSlovakia Czech RepPoland SpainTurkey AzerbaijanDenmark UKLatvia Russia
Source: JODI natural gas world database
JODI data used by OPEC to assess natural gas markets
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 14
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr
-18
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr
-19
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug
-19
m s cu m Natural gas demand for electricity generation by Non-OECD country
Algeria Azerbaijan Bahrain Belarus Bolivia BruneiBulgaria Chinese Taipei Croatia Ecuador Egypt Equatorial GuineaGeorgia Hong Kong China India Indonesia Iran IraqKuwait Malta Moldova Morocco Nigeria PhilippinesSouth Africa Thailand Trinidad/Tobago Tunisia Venezuela
Source: JODI natural gas world database
JODI data used by OPEC to assess natural gas markets
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 15
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
m s cu m LNG trade by country
Algeria Australia BelgiumEgypt Equatorial Guinea NetherlandsNigeria Norway QatarTrinidad USA
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
m s cu m Pipeline trade by country
Algeria Austria Belgium BoliviaCanada China Czech Rep. FranceGermany Indonesia Lithuania NetherlandsNigeria Norway Poland QatarRussia Slovakia Switzerland UKUSA
Source: JODI natural gas world database
JODI data used by OPEC to assess natural gas markets
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 16
Interaction between energy commodities
Oil
Natural Gas
CoalRenewables
Oil
Gas
Coal
Renew.
Nuclear
Hydro• Natural gas & oil:
− Well established JODI initiatives− Monthly detailed data available
• Coal: Need for more granular data identified− Work already established within JODI
• Other energy commodities: Similarly important
Better understanding of energy transition when data transparency is applied to all energy commodities
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 17
Looking ahead: more data required …
Oil & gas trade by origin/destination
International bunkers, petchem feedstocks
More products – asphalt, coke, lubricants
Other energy commoditiesLNG trade by destination
© 2019 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 18
Conclusion
• JODI oil & gas databases are widely used within the industry.
• JODI is the central platform & benchmark for official energy data.
• Further success of the Initiative will strongly depend on the− Usability, relevance & accuracy of available energy information− Cooperation between all relevant energy market players – countries, organizations
and the industry.
• Ultimate goal is to achieve global energy markets data transparency.
• OPEC & its Member Countries will continue their strong commitment towards JODI, particularly focusing on oil & gas data quality as well as supporting the expansion of the Initiative to cover other energy commodities.
www.opec.org
Thank You.
JODI-Gas Information SessionMalabo, 26 November 2019