global employment trends for youth
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DESCRIPTIONGlobal Employment Trends for Youth. Steven Kapsos International Labour Organization UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and Development New York, 21-22 July 2011. Overview. The big picture: Why focus on youth ? Youth vulnerabilities in the labour market - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SWTS Survey Design and Analytical Framework
Global Employment Trends for YouthSteven KapsosInternational Labour Organization
UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on Adolescents, Youth and DevelopmentNew York, 21-22 July 2011
1OverviewThe big picture: Why focus on youth?Youth vulnerabilities in the labour marketWhat we know and what we dont know
Labour market trends for youth: the pre-crisis picture
Impact of the global economic crisis on youth in the labour market
21. The big picture
Why focus on youth employment?Inefficiencies in youth labour market (unemployment, discouragement, working poverty) are costlyLack of decent work at an early age compromises future employment prospects and impacts behaviour A young person with hopes and options is happy; take away the options and youth become angryFuture consumers, producers societies
Youth unemployment and situations in which young people give up on the job search (discouragement) or work under inadequate conditions (underemployment) incur costs to the economy, to society and to the individual and their family. A lack of decent work, if experienced at an early age, often permanently compromises a persons future employment prospects and frequently leads to unsuitable labour behaviour patterns that last a lifetime. There is a proven link between youth unemployment and social exclusion. An inability to find employment creates a sense of vulnerability, uselessness and idleness among young people. The most obvious gains then, in making the most of the productive potential of youth and ensuring the availability of decent employment opportunities for youth, are the personal gains to the young people themselves. The second obvious gain to recapturing the productive potential of underutilized youth is an economic one. Idle youth is a costly group. They are not contributing to the economic welfare of the country quite the contrary. The loss of income among the younger generation translates into a lack of savings as well as a loss of aggregate demand. Some youth who are unable to earn their own income have to be financially supported by the family, leaving less for spending and investments at the household level. Societies lose their investment in education. Governments fail to receive contributions to social security systems and are forced to increase spending on remedial services, including crime or drug use prevention efforts. All this is a threat to the development potential of economies. Focusing on youth, therefore, makes sense to a country from a costs-benefits point of view.
Without the proper foothold from which to start out right in the labour market, young people are less able to make choices that will improve their own job prospects and those of their future dependants, thus perpetuating the cycle of insufficient education, low productivity employment and poverty from one generation to the next.
A happy youth is one faced with exciting options for the future. The contrast then is a young person who feels trapped in a situation that offers little opportunity for building a better future. Even more unhappy are the youth who perceive little hope for future prospects and have acquired a sense of injustice regarding the inequality of their situation. These are the youth who feel themselves victimized by the system and the ones who focus their anger on the most obvious culprit to them; they might blame globalization in general, the greed of the capitalist system, national politicians, government corruption, their parents, a specific ethnic group. Why are young people particularly vulnerable in the labour market?Educational deficienciesSkills/talent mismatchLack of work experience, professional contacts, networksPrecarious employment contracts/dual labour marketsLast-in, first-out phenomenonBarriers to entrepreneurship
Quantifying youth vulnerability: What do we know?What we do not know . . .UnemployedDiscouraged workers?Fully employed?Underemployed?In full-time education ?Other?Breakdown of the inactive by reason - how many are in each category?InactiveEmployedShares of underemployed v. fully employed in total employment?Size of the vulnerable youth population??What we know . . .Inactive share increased from 45.3 to 49.2%Employed share decreased from 47.9 to 44.7%Unemployed share decreased from 6.8 to 6.1%Share of working poor - 28.1%
What we can quantify (2008)
Unemp share back up to 6.7% in 2009
determining an exact deficit of full and productive work for young people and ultimately identifying the precise size of the vulnerable youth population brings us into the realm of the unknown, at least in terms of what we can quantify. Due to a lack of country level data on the one hand and to the vagueness of some concepts on the other hand, we do not know with certainty 1) the distribution of the employed youth who are fully employed versus underemployed or 2) the share among inactive youth who are inactive because they are in full-time education, inactive because they have become discouraged with the job search or inactive for other reasons.
Might also want to add in there the number of youth on precarious contracts, vulnerable during times of economic downturns
Numbers: 81 + 152 = 233 youth are most vulnerable but this is a gross underestimation2. Labour market trends for youth the pre-crisis picture
Share of youth in the total population show declining trend in all regionsSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Demographic transition began at different times in different regions; in DEE problem is now not enough young people to support a growing elderly bulge
But the shares continue to be high in many developing countries. And still expecting an increase of 19.4 million youth in SSA between 2010 and 2015 15% of the worlds youth. Youth pop also high in South Asia and will continue to increase by 12.1 million.
No slow down in numbers of youth entering labour market each year in SSA and South Asia, two regions with highest poverty rates. In short, youth pop and lf will continue growing in the poorest regions, with each years cohort of entrants adding pressure.8Employment-to-population ratios decrease over time in most regionsSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
In 2008 the number of employed young people was 540 million, an increase of 34 million from ten years before. However, because the youth population grew at a quicker pace than youth employment, the share of youth who are employed in the youth population (the youth employment-to-population-ratio) saw a decrease from 47.9 to 44.7 per cent between 1998 and 2008. The main driver of both trends is gains in the number of young people participating in the education system, although in some regions discouragement among youth also plays a role.
The likelihood of a young person working was very low in Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS, the Middle East and North Africa. In the latter two regions, four out of ten male youth were working in 2008 (40.7 and 39.5 per cent in North Africa and the Middle East, respectively) compared to less than two of ten young women (15.9 and 14.9 per cent, respectively). There is clear segmentation in youth labour market opportunities in these regions with the result being severe underdevelopment in the productive potential of the economies. Employment opportunities are rare for young men in the region and nearly non-existent for young women. In Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS, low youth employment-to-population ratios are more a reaction to limited employment opportunities, with young people reacting to a highly competitive labour market by discouragement, underemployment or migration.
9Global youth unemployment rates were decreasing before the economic crisisSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Youth unemployment rates were on a downward trend prior to the economic crisis but were still nearly three times higher than adults. The youth unemployment rate stood at 11.9 per cent in 2007 compared to 5.7 per cent for the overall global unemployment rate and 4.2 per cent for the adult unemployment rate. Compared to adults, youth are almost three times as likely to be unemployed; the ratio of the youth-to-adult unemployment rate was 2.8 in 2007, up from 2.6 in 1997.
More than 20 per cent of the youth labour force in the Middle East and North Africa in 2008 was unable to find jobs. In Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS, the youth unemployment rate was not far behind at 17.3 per cent. In the Asian regions and Sub-Saharan Africa youth unemployment rates are lower but this is likely to reflect the high rates of poverty and lack of social protection in the regions which forces the poor into low-productivity employment.
10But young people remain disadvantaged relative to adults across regions
Inequalities in the chances of finding workYoung women tend to have more difficulty finding work than young men.In most OECD countries, unemployment is higher among the lesser educated youth; in developing countries, it is the highly educated who face longer job searches.Unemployment rates are typically higher among ethnic minorities.
Young women face much higher unemployment rates than young men in some regions
Working poverty rates among youth exceed those of adultsSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Young people suffer disproportionately from decent work deficits, measured in terms of working poverty and employment status. Evidence shows that young people have a higher likelihood than adults of being among the working poor. An estimated 152 million young workers were living in poor households (with per-capita expenditure below US$1.25 a day) in 2008, down from 234 million young w