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  • Youth in the Labor Force: Statistics and Trends

    Youth Employment Work Group

    May 26, 2016

    1

  • May 2016

    Update to the 2014 report, available online:

    Endangered: Youth in the Labor Force

    https://www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/13336/Endangered+Youth+in+the+Labor+Force?version=1.3

  •  Oregon has been adding jobs faster than the U.S. since 2013.

     More jobs were added in the last 12 months than over any 12 month period since 1990 (at least).

     Oregon’s unemployment rate is the lowest in 40 years, and is lower than the U.S.

     Strong job growth is boosting the labor force participation rate, offsetting the long-term decline in participation.

     The youth labor market has improved a lot, but it’s still not great, especially for teens.

    Oregon’s labor market has improved substantially since the report was published.

  •  Unemployment rates for teens and young adults increased drastically during the recession.

     Unemployment among young adults (20-24 years) has improved significantly since then.

     Unemployment among teenagers (16-19 years) reached a record high during the recession. It has improved a lot since then, but the unemployment rate for teens is still very high.

    Youth Unemployment

  • The recession sent youth unemployment rates to record highs. It’s still troubling high for teens.

    Young people were just 12 percent of the labor force in 2015, but they accounted for 27 percent of unemployed Oregonians.

    Unemployment rates: 16-19 years: 22.2%

    20-24 years: 8.8%

    25+ years: 4.7% 0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

    U n

    e m

    p lo

    y m

    e n

    t R

    a te

    Unemployment Rates High for Oregon's Youth (Years with Recessions Shaded Gray)

    16-19 years 20-24 years Age 25 years and over

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

  • Oregon had the 17th highest unemployment rate for youth between 16 and 24 years old at 12.4 percent.

  • The share of unemployed teens with no previous work experience is much higher than it used to be, and the lack of experience makes it more difficult to find a job.

    Share of unemployed with no previous work experience:

    16-19 years 50%

    20-24 years 16%

    25+ years 3%

    0%

    25%

    50%

    75%

    100%

    1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    P e rc

    e n

    t o

    f U

    n e m

    p lo

    y e d

    i n

    A g

    e G

    ro u

    p

    Half of Teen Job Seekers Lack Previous Work Experience Unemployed with No Previous Work Experience, United States

    Age 16-19

    Age 20-24

    Age 25 and over

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

  •  The labor force participation rate is the share of the civilian noninstitutional population that is employed or unemployed (no job, but actively looking for work).

     Young adult participation increased slightly as economic conditions improved.

     Teen participation has continued its long-term fall, which began in the year 2000.

    Youth Labor Force Participation

  • After years of decline, the share of teens participating in the labor force reached the lowest point on record in 2015.

    It’s now far more common for teens to be neither working nor looking for a job.

    Participation rates:

    16-19 years 34%

    20-24 years 72%

    25+ years 62%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

    L a

    b o

    r F

    o rc

    e P

    a rt

    ic ip

    a ti

    o n

    R a

    te

    Oregon Teen Participation Rate at Historic Lows (Years With Recessions Shaded Gray)

    16-19 years 20-24 years Age 25 years and over

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

  • Oregon had the 34th highest labor force participation rate for youth between ages 16 and 24 years.

  •  Oregon has added back the number of jobs lost during the recession. However, relatively few of the new jobs went to younger workers.

     By 2015, there were 43,000 more jobs in Oregon than before the recession.

     But there were 29,300 fewer jobs held by workers ages 14 to 24 years, than in 2007.

    Fewer Jobs Held by Young People

  • Oregon’s youth held 29,3oo fewer jobs in 2015 than they did in 2007.

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

    N u

    m b

    e r

    o f

    J o

    b s

    Number of Jobs by Age Group Oregon

    22 to 24 Years

    19 to 21 Years

    14 to 18 Years

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators

  • The share of youth in Oregon’s workforce has fallen dramatically, recovering slightly in the last few years.

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

    P e

    rc e

    n t

    o f

    T o

    ta l J

    o b

    s Share of Total Jobs by Age Group

    Oregon

    5.4%

    3.8%

    1.5%

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators

    22 to 24 Years

    19 to 21 Years

    14 to 18 Years

  • Today’s teenagers are less likely to find a summer job than previous generations.

    The number of teen summer “new hires” fell during the recession and hasn’t recovered.

    Summer 2006 45,300

    Summer 2014 28,100

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    70,000

    1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

    N u

    m b

    e r

    o f

    N e w

    H ir

    e s

    Oregon Teen Hiring Halved in Recession Third Quarter New Hires Ages 14-18

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators

  • The share of young workers has fallen in industries that have traditionally relied heavily on a younger workforce.

    The trend towards fewer young workers has been taking place since the 1990s, but the Great Recession accelerated the trend for these key youth industries.

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    25.0%

    30.0%

    35.0%

    40.0%

    45.0%

    50.0%

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

    P e rc

    e n

    t o

    f In

    d u

    s tr

    y W

    o rk

    e rs

    A g

    e s 1

    4 t

    o 2

    4

    Share of Jobs Held by Youth Oregon

    21.3%

    29.0%

    10.7%

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators

    Food Services and Drinking Places

    Food and Beverage Stores

    Total - All Industries

  • What Are Young People Doing If They Are Not Working?

  • Enrollment in school makes a big difference in the labor force participation of today’s youth.

    Teens and young adults not enrolled in school are more likely to be working now than during the recession.

    Those enrolled in school are still less likely to be working.

  • Labor force participation among youth is expected to fall faster than that of the older population through 2022.

    The participation rate of teens dropped below 50% in 2002.

    Declines in teen participation have been sharp, and show no sign of letting up.

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

    L a b

    o r

    F o

    rc e P

    a rt

    ic ip

    a ti

    o n

    R a te

    Expect Continued Decline in Youth Participation Rates Oregon

    Ages 16-19

    Projection 2015-2024

    Ages 20-24

    Projection 2015-2024

    Ages 25 and over

    Projection 2015-2024

    33.5

    27.3

    72.2 70.1

    62.0 60.8

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey. Projections developed by Oregon Employment Department using Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Projections 2014-2024.

  • What About the Minimum Wage?

  •  2014 meta analysis of over 200 scholarly minimum wage studies.

     Looked at U.S. studies since 2001 that focus on the effects of minimum wage on youth employment:  9 reported negative employment effects

     9 reported mixed results

     5 reported no significant impact

     Singell and Terborg (2007). Oregon and Washington increases in the late 1990s. Found negative employment effect in eating and drinking places, and a positive employment effect in hotel and lodging.