general jodi & oil data related issues - olade.org · organization of the petroleum exporting...

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1

GENERAL JODI & OIL DATA RELATED

ISSUES

Pantelis Christodoulides Statistician Data Services Department

OPEC

[email protected]


OUTLINE

Data essential for oil market

Issues of data collection

Legal framework for oil statistics compilation/resources

Confidentiality of oil statistics


OUTLINE






DATA ESSENTIAL FOR OIL MARKET

Why is good data essential for oil market ?Why is good data essential for oil market ?

Support sound decision making

Encourage investments

Reduce market volatility

Facilitate improved short-term forecasts

Ensure oil market stability


Economic forecast

World oil demand

Non-OPEC supply

Inventories

Refinery utilization and margins

Oil and product prices

OPECOPEC’’s production decisions s production decisions –– significant impact significant impact on the oil marketon the oil market

Decisions based on Decisions based on




Challenges in assessing oil dataChallenges in assessing oil data

Unreliable - poor quality data

Unavailability of certain data

Revision of historical data

Uncertainty about market outlook



Market FundamentalsMarket Fundamentals

DEMAND

NON-OPEC SUPPLYOPEC PRODUCTION

Expectation of fundamentals is a tool to predict inventory movements


Price Pressure

Psychology (Geopolitical Tension, etc.)

Manipulation (Speculators)

Market Fundamentals

(DATA)

Stock Change

Expectation of inventory movements, among other factors, drives the direction of crude oil prices..

Oil Price & Market FundamentalsOil Price & Market Fundamentals




R2 = 0.7

01020304050607080

255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360

1994 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 Linear (1994 - 2003)

WTI versus US commercial crude stocksWTI versus US commercial crude stocks

million barrels

US$/Barrel



-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06

source 1 source 2

Continued revisions of historical oil demand 2003Continued revisions of historical oil demand 2003

world oil demand in 2003: 79.2 mb/d

million barrels per day



Consumer-producer dialogue dates back to the 1980’s

Common interest of producers and consumersStable oil marketReliable and transparent oil data

JODI


JODI launched in 2001 by six organizations - OPEC, APEC, Eurostat, IEA, OLADE and UNSD

Response to a directive from Ministers at the 7th

International Energy Forum (IEF) Nov. 2000, who saw the need for an initiative that would enhance “cooperation among relevant international organizations, as well as participating countries, in improving timely access to energy data”

Objective of JODIObjective of JODI



OUTLINE






ISSUES OF DATA COLLECTION

Aspects of data qualityAspects of data quality

Sustainability/submission

Timeliness

Completeness/coverage

Accuracy





Timeliness


Accuracy



SustainabilitySustainability

Number of submissions within period - 6, 12 months

Percentages

Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less reliable”



Sustainability OPEC 2005Sustainability OPEC 2005

Country JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

11 92%

83%

100%

100%

67%

100%

100%

100%

100%

10 X X X X 4 33%

OPEC 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 6 8 11 88%

11

12

12

8

12

12

12

12

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

9 X X X X X X X X X X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1 X X X X

2 X X X X

3 X X X X

4 X X X X

5 X X X X

6 X X X X

7 X X X X

8 X X X X



Sustainability OPEC 2002 Sustainability OPEC 2002 -- 20052005

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005



Sustainability ratingsSustainability ratings

Over period of 6 months

Good 6 timely submissions

Fair 4 or 5 timely submissions

Less reliable less than 4 timely submissions

☺



Sustainability ratings OPEC Jul05 Sustainability ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05

Country 1 5

Country 2 5

Country 3 5

Country 4 6 ☺

Country 5 2

Country 6 6 ☺

Country 7 5

Country 8 6 ☺

Country 9 6 ☺

Country 10 0





Timeliness


Accuracy



TimelinessTimeliness

Prior deadline – 2 months

Data for June 2006 September 1 2006

Number of timely submissions within period -6, 12 months

Percentages

Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less timely”



Timeliness OPEC 2005Timeliness OPEC 2005

Country JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

5 42%

83%

67%

92%

42%

0%

92%

100%

25%

10 X X X X 0 0%

OPEC 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 6 5 4 4 7 54%

10

8

11

5

0

11

12

3

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

9 X X X X X X X X X X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

1 X X X X

2 X X X X

3 X X X X

4 X X X X

5 X X X X

6 X X X X

7 X X X X

8 X X X X



Timeliness OPEC 2002 Timeliness OPEC 2002 -- 20052005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2002 2003 2004 2005



Timeliness ratingsTimeliness ratings


Good 6 timely submissions

Fair 4 or 5 timely submissions

Less timely less than 4 timely submissions

☺



Timeliness ratings OPEC Jul05 Timeliness ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05

Country 1 2

Country 2 4

Country 3 5

Country 4 6 ☺

Country 5 0

Country 6 0

Country 7 5

Country 8 6 ☺

Country 9 2

Country 10 0





Timeliness


Accuracy



CompletenessCompleteness

Number of expected data points out of max 42

Percentages

Ratings “good”, “fair”, “less reliable”

Qualitative approaches


Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

42 data points 42 data points

JODI questionnaireJODI questionnaire




Completeness OPECCompleteness OPEC

PROD TRADE STCLO STCHG REFINTREFOUTDEMAND

1 o

2 X o o

3 X X

4 X

5 X X

6

7 X

8

9 X X

10



Completeness ratingsCompleteness ratings


Good 90% of data given

Fair 60% - 90% of data given

Less reliable less than 60% of data given

☺



Completeness ratings OPEC Jul05 Completeness ratings OPEC Jul05 –– Dec05Dec05

Country 1 100% ☺

Country 2 71%

Country 3 80%

Country 4 100% ☺

Country 5 80%

Country 6 80%

Country 7 100% ☺

Country 8 100% ☺

Country 9 80%

Country 10 100% ☺


Country Submission Timeliness Completeness Submission Timeliness Completeness

1 5 2 100% ☺

2 5 4 71%

3 5 5 80%

4 6 6 100% ☺ ☺ ☺

5 2 0 80%

6 6 0 80% ☺

7 5 5 100% ☺

8 6 6 100% ☺ ☺ ☺

9 6 2 80% ☺

10 0 0 100% ☺


Submission Timeliness Completeness Submission Timeliness Completeness --OPECOPEC





Timeliness


Accuracy



AccuracyAccuracy

Difficult to measure – benchmark needed

Variations across data flows

Impossible to provide one rating for a country

Only indications of accuracy

Verification methods – balance, internal consistency, time series, visual checks



Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checksbalance checks

Calculated supply ~ reported demand

Calculated supply = production + imports –exports – stock changes

Data checks for all flows – deviation +/- 5%

Balance check possible if all flows available

Larger deviation not always bad data quality



Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example gasolinebalance checks: Example gasoline

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

No

v-05

calc supply demand

1000 barrels per day



Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example gasolinebalance checks: Example gasoline

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

No

v-05



Accuracy Accuracy –– balance checks: Example total productsbalance checks: Example total products

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Jan-0

2M

ar-02

May-0

2Ju

l-02

Sep

-02

No

v-02

Jan-0

3M

ar-03

May-0

3Ju

l-03

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4M

ar-04

May-0

4Ju

l-04

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5M

ar-05

May-0

5Ju

l-05

Sep

-05

No

v-05

Jan-0

6

LPG - export/gas plant




Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency checksinternal consistency checks

Fuel balance: total oil ≥ LPG + gasoline + kerosene + G/D oil + fuel oil

stock change = stock(M-1) – stock(M-2)

Deviation ~ +/- 5%



Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

other products other products

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks



Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency: Example fuel internal consistency: Example fuel balance in oil demandbalance in oil demand

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

Nov-0

3

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Nov-0

4

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

Nov-0

5

reported total oil sum of products




Accuracy Accuracy –– internal consistency: Example stock internal consistency: Example stock checkschecks

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

-8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000

calculated stock change

reported stock change

1000 barrels



Accuracy Accuracy –– time series checks/growth ratestime series checks/growth rates

Useful for production stocks and demand

Comparison latest month data to previous month/last year

Growth rates remain stable

Seasonality patterns should be considered

Deviation ~ +/- 5%

Larger deviation not always bad data quality



Accuracy Accuracy –– time series check: Example oil demandtime series check: Example oil demand

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

No

v-05





-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

No

v-05

changes from last year



-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5

Jul-0

5

Sep

-05

No

v-05


changes from last month




-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%

Jan

-03

Ma

r-03

Ma

y-0

3

Jul-0

3

Se

p-0

3

No

v-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

r-04

Ma

y-0

4

Jul-0

4

Se

p-0

4

No

v-0

4

Jan

-05

Ma

r-05

Ma

y-0

5

Jul-0

5

Se

p-0

5

No

v-0

5

changes from last month changes from last year



Accuracy Accuracy –– visual checksvisual checks

Graphical representation of data

Detection of outliers

For all flows except stock changes

Easy and fast method but

Outliers often not easy to detect

Outliers do not always imply bad data quality



Accuracy Accuracy –– visual check: Example oil productionvisual check: Example oil production

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

Jan-0

2

Mar-0

2

May-0

2

Jul-0

2

Sep

-02

No

v-02

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3

May-0

3

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

No

v-03

Jan-0

4

Mar-0

4

May-0

4

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5

May-0

5




050

100150200

250300

350400

Jan-0

2M

ar-02

May-0

2Ju

l-02

Sep

-02

No

v-02

Jan-0

3

Mar-0

3M

ay-03

Jul-0

3S

ep-0

3N

ov-0

3

Jan-0

4M

ar-04

May-0

4Ju

l-04

Sep

-04

No

v-04

Jan-0

5

Mar-0

5M

ay-05

Jul-0

5S

ep-0

5N

ov-0

5

FOL GAS GDO KRO LPG TOT

Accuracy Accuracy –– visual check: Example refinery outputvisual check: Example refinery output



OUTLINE






LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR OIL STATISTICS COMPILATION/RESOURCES

Most countries have legal framework covering oil Most countries have legal framework covering oil statistics compilationstatistics compilation

Legal status of customs records

Legal status of other sources

Oil upstream and downstream flows

All JODI flows covered

Resources: National statistics office, DOE, NOCs, etc.

Examples: Philippines, Norway, Cyprus



PhilippinesPhilippines



Example: PhilippinesExample: Philippines

Downstream oil industry deregulation act of 1988 liberalizes downstream oil industry

Law/IPRS monitors price, quality, refining and marketing of petroleum products

IPRS mandates monitoring of industry supply/demand and inventory

Entities engaged in all upstream activities are registered by the DOE

Downstream petroleum statistics – sourced directly from participants in industry



Example: Philippines downstream sectorExample: Philippines downstream sector

Tank Truck

Tank Truck Tankers/Barges

Retail Outlet

Refinery

Depot/Terminal

White Oil Pipeline Black Oil Pipeline

Product Imports Product Exports

Refinery Storage

Crude Imports

LPG Retail

Freeports/Import

Terminals

Industrial Consumer /End User




Downstream data reports by rule II – section 7 of IPR

Reports include imports/exports of crude and products, refinery production, inventories etc.

Monthly and annual reportorial requirements

Upstream data covered by oil exploration and development act of 1972

Penalties for late or not submission of data




Philippine DOE in collaboration with

National statistics office (household energy consumption survey)

Petroleum institute of the Philippines




Processing/entering of data manually (excel sheets)

No database available

In planning: Online submission reports



NorwayNorway



Example: NorwayExample: Norway

Statistics act covers all energy statistics and oil

National statistical office responsible for energy statistics and oil

Energy statistics as sectorial similar to industrial, trade or agricultural statistics

Compiling oil and gas data on production trade, stocks, refinery intake/output, demand etc. covered by legislation




Statistics act does not cover inland consumption of petroleum products

National statistical office produces these statistics on behalf of industry

Sources of data: Norwegian petroleum directorate, retail companies and refineries, customs

Monthly reports




Survey for inland consumption of petroleum products

Production, export and stocks for crude, NGL and natural gas from NPD

Import export data collected by the customs




Manual data entry with extensive use of formulas in excel sheets

Database for inland consumption of products only

Other data kept in original files



CyprusCyprus



Example: CyprusExample: Cyprus

No specific legislation underpinning monthly oil data collection

Statistics law no. 15(I) of 2000 governs official statistics in general

No production of oil – Cyprus petroleum refinery stopped in 2004 and is only a terminal

Monthly imports data from customs and intrastatreturns



Example: CyprusExample: Cyprus

Petroleum companies provide data on sales and stocks. All petroleum companies are required to report

Data for heavy fuel oil collected from the electricity authority of Cyprus


OUTLINE






CONFIDENTIALITY OF OIL STATISTICS

Reasons for confidentiality: Market Reasons for confidentiality: Market fundamental and non fundamental issuesfundamental and non fundamental issues

Downstream flows such as stocks and stock change, petroleum product demand

Upstream information (crude production)

Other energy data of sensitive nature such as production of nuclear energy



Example: Future spread versus PADD II crude stocksExample: Future spread versus PADD II crude stocks

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

1994-2003 2004 2005 Linear (1994-2003)

million barrels

FM1 – FM2 (US$)



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

less or equal 20 21-22 23-24 bigger or equal 25

Example: Range of crude cover versus WTIExample: Range of crude cover versus WTI

WTI (US$/b)

days of forward cover


Thank youMuchas Gracias

general jodi & oil data related issues - olade.org · organization of the petroleum exporting...

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