FY14 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeDecember 2, 2013

FY14 October Caseload Review

Waitlist Remediation Initiative Status: The CCRRs began placing children in the Waitlist remediation account in October. The CCRRs have until December 20, 2013 to place all the vouchers allocated to them.

As of last week, eight weeks into the twelve week initiative, when the benchmark was 67%, the CCRRs have successfully placed 98.6% of the total allocation and are at or near their respective allotments.  

Approximately 47% (1,106) of the 2,367 placements in the Waitlist Remediation account were billed for service month October 2013. Program setting and age group mix may allow for future allotments (557).

Income Eligible: Based on the following assumptions, we continue to project utilizing nearly the entire 3000-4060 and 3000-4070 appropriations:

After October billing there is a $906K IE surplus. This is offset by a $902K deficit in DTA.

All the CCRRs have started filling the additional attrition backfill allotment in the Income Eligible 3000-4060 account. They are at 50%. Voucher Caseload in October decreased minimally by 153 of which 140 are school age children.

Income Eligible, Teen, and Homeless contract forecasted expenditures are held at the contract maximum obligation. Underutilization was used to fund the Income Eligible flex pool. One provider closed and vouchers were provided to the children in care. The provider had Income Eligible, Teen, Homeless, and Supportive Contracts. Once the contract is closed and the shift in cost to vouchers is realized, we will make additional forecast

adjustments.

2

FY14 October Caseload Review DTA-Related Caseload: After four months of actual numbers, EEC is forecasting

a deficit of $901K, a decrease from the previous month’s projected deficiency of $2.3M. October actual caseload billing reflects a net increase (8) in caseload when compared to September. School Age caseload dropped by 168, but was offset by an increase in Infants (15), Toddlers(107), and Pre-School (54). This translates to a $1.4M reduction to the forecast. The caseload remained flat when compared to September, resulting in a decrease in the projected deficit.

Supportive Caseload: With four months of actual numbers, EEC continues to

forecast expenditures to the appropriation of $77M. Access to expansion slots continues continue to allow for more children to be served in areas where there is the capacity and the need. Caseload had a net decrease of 169, of which School Age decrease by 241. Infants increased (32), Toddlers increased (50) and Preschool decreased (10).

FY14 Consolidated Net Increase: EEC is soon to receive $11.5M as part of the Consolidated Net Surplus (CNS) to dedicate to an across the board rate increase for all center based, family child care providers, and family child care systems. This is roughly a raise of $.78 on the daily rate. The rate increase will be retroactive to July 1, 2013.

3

FY14 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of October 2013

4

FY14 Caseload

Spending - October

FY14 Budget YTD Actuals/ Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 127,752,807$ 121,181,820$ 6,570,987$ Voucher 86,068,659$ 91,733,222$ (5,664,563)$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

222,840,742$ 221,934,318$ 906,424$ DTA Voucher 128,063,499$ 128,965,306$ (901,807)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,323,780$ 76,332,722$ (8,942)$ Voucher 67,665$ 53,848$ 13,817$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

76,991,445$ 76,986,570$ 4,875$ Total 427,895,686$ 427,886,194$ 9,492$

FY14 Caseload Overview SummaryPrior Month

5

FY14 Caseload

Spending - September

FY14 Budget YTD Actuals/ Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 127,752,807$ 121,800,781$ 5,952,026$ Voucher 86,068,659$ 89,702,610$ (3,633,951)$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

222,840,742$ 220,522,667$ 2,318,075$ DTA Voucher 128,063,499$ 130,377,068$ (2,313,569)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,323,780$ 76,327,935$ (4,155)$ Voucher 67,665$ 63,486$ 4,179$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

76,991,445$ 76,991,421$ 24$ Total 427,895,686$ 427,891,156$ 4,530$

6

FY 2013 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection

2014 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

Mth to Mth Forecast Change

Jun-12 32,173 32,173 N/AJun-13 30,749 30,749 N/AJul-13 30,604 30,620 16 18,637,200$ 18,957,584$ (320,385)$

Aug-13 30,451 30,516 65 17,370,375$ 17,848,676$ (798,686)$ Sep-13 29,398 29,609 211 14,986,108$ 15,269,788$ (1,082,366)$ Oct-13 29,341 29,246 (95) 18,077,907$ 17,551,101$ (555,560)$ Nov-13 30,146 29,589 (557) 17,189,891$ 16,764,129$ (129,797)$ Dec-13 30,104 29,988 (116) 17,993,289$ 17,839,219$ 24,273$ Jan-14 30,440 30,446 5 18,962,996$ 18,886,022$ 101,247$ Feb-14 30,406 30,979 573 16,564,227$ 16,847,189$ (181,716)$ Mar-14 30,326 30,837 512 17,235,549$ 17,485,738$ (431,905)$ Apr-14 30,678 31,304 626 18,127,053$ 18,443,290$ (748,142)$ May-14 30,712 31,309 598 18,031,730$ 18,319,628$ (1,036,039)$ Jun-14 30,827 31,437 611 18,327,065$ 18,702,677$ (1,411,651)$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ TOTAL 220,522,667$ 221,934,318$

FY14 Appropriation 222,840,742 Surplus/Deficiency 906,424

- Blue: FY14 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month and is as of the date the forecast was prepared. - Please note a child could receive multiple services. - Caseload data is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing. - Current Reporting month include late billing projections that will be billed and paid in the next billing cycle. For example September includes late billingprojection that will be projected to be billed in October.

** Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. - Expenditures is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

Income Eligible SFY14 Forecast as of October Actuals

7

FY 2013 Waitlist Remediation(3000-4070)

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection

2014 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

Mth to Mth Forecast Change

Jul-13 N/A N/A N/AAug-13 N/A N/A N/ASep-13 N/A N/A N/AOct-13 2,367 1,261 1,106 813,192$ 759,407$ 53,784$ Nov-13 2,367 2,367 0 1,572,540$ 1,417,291$ 209,034$ Dec-13 2,367 2,367 0 1,776,590$ 1,481,871$ 503,752$ Jan-14 2,367 2,367 0 1,876,443$ 1,557,458$ 822,738$ Feb-14 2,367 2,924 (557) 1,646,789$ 1,710,492$ 759,035$ Mar-14 2,367 2,924 (557) 1,728,832$ 1,795,825$ 692,042$ Apr-14 2,367 2,924 (557) 1,686,555$ 1,800,618$ 577,979$ May-14 2,367 2,924 (557) 1,643,710$ 1,772,862$ 448,828$ Jun-14 2,367 2,924 (557) 1,549,021$ 2,001,336$ (3,487)$

CCCRR Admin. 700,000$ 700,000$ TOTAL 14,993,672$ 14,997,159$

FY14 Appropriation 15,000,000 Surplus/Deficiency 2,841

- Blue: FY14 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month and is as of the date the forecast was prepared. - Please note a child could receive multiple services. - Caseload data is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

** Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. - Expenditures is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing. - Additional savings may be realised by parent fees.

SFY14 Forecast Waitlist Remediation

8

FY 2014 DTA (3000-4050)

Month P rior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection

2014 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

Mth to Mth Forecast Change

Jun-12 16,913 16,913 N/AJun-13 16,422 16,422 N/AJul-13 16,301 16,307 6 11,415,267$ 11,418,175$ 2,908$ Aug-13 16,079 16,129 50 10,741,199$ 10,772,073$ 33,782$ Sep-13 16,290 15,916 (374) 9,680,897$ 9,607,264$ (39,851)$ Oct-13 16,523 16,252 (271) 11,387,990$ 11,219,815$ (208,026)$ Nov-13 16,728 16,444 (284) 10,826,130$ 10,695,059$ (339,097)$ Dec-13 16,542 16,270 (272) 11,095,091$ 10,959,057$ (475,131)$ Jan-14 16,379 16,120 (259) 11,102,202$ 10,943,866$ (633,467)$ Feb-14 16,817 16,484 (333) 10,086,074$ 9,951,510$ (768,031)$ Mar-14 16,819 16,534 (285) 10,670,194$ 10,519,130$ (919,095)$ Apr-14 16,806 16,539 (267) 11,363,000$ 11,194,229$ (1,087,866)$ May-14 17,055 16,729 (326) 11,058,637$ 10,912,798$ (1,233,705)$ Jun-14 16,384 16,042 (342) 10,950,386$ 10,772,329$ (1,411,763)$

TOTAL 130,377,068$ 128,965,305$ 128,063,499$

(901,806)$

- Blue: FY14 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month and is as of the date the forecast was prepared.

- Please note a child could receive multiple services. - Caseload data is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing. - Current Reporting month include late billing projections that will be billed and paid in the next billing cycle. For example September includes late billingprojection that will be projected to be billed in October.

** Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. - Expenditures are updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

DTA SFY14 Forecast as of October Actuals

FY14 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

9

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection

2014 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

Mth to Mth Forecast Change

Jun-12 5,979 5,979 N/AJun-13 5,651 5,651 N/AJul-13 5,801 5,801 0 6,317,378$ 6,318,854$ 1,476$ Aug-13 5,823 5,823 0 6,174,442$ 6,177,749$ 4,784$ Sep-13 5,893 5,911 18 5,726,816$ 5,744,013$ 21,982$ Oct-13 5,807 5,742 (65) 6,485,778$ 6,264,279$ (199,517)$ Nov-13 5,913 5,939 26 6,188,227$ 6,207,906$ (179,838)$ Dec-13 5,930 5,957 27 6,566,087$ 6,588,039$ (157,886)$ Jan-14 5,970 5,998 28 6,815,253$ 6,839,032$ (134,107)$ Feb-14 6,023 6,053 30 6,016,379$ 6,038,875$ (111,612)$ Mar-14 6,075 6,107 32 6,400,809$ 6,426,483$ (85,938)$ Apr-14 6,067 6,099 32 6,642,343$ 6,669,209$ (59,072)$ May-14 6,089 6,121 32 6,585,781$ 6,612,206$ (32,647)$ Jun-14 6,208 6,243 35 6,472,129$ 6,499,925$ (4,851)$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ TOTAL 76,991,421$ 76,986,570$

76,991,445$ 4,875$

- Blue: FY14 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month and is as of the date the forecast was prepared.

- Please note a child could receive multiple services. - Caseload data is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

** Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. - Expenditures are updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

Supportive SFY14 Forecast as of October Actuals

FY14 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

FY13/14 Caseload By Account

10

IE July August September October November December January February March April May June AverageFY2013 31,358 31,522 30,609 29,883 29,853 29,865 30,029 30,111 30,135 30,346 30,428 30,750 30,407 FY2014 30,620 30,516 29,609 29,246 29,998

IE- 4070 July August September October November December January February March April May June AverageFY2014 - - - 1,261 1,261

DTA July August September October November December January February March April May June AverageFY2013 16,301 16,382 16,348 16,825 16,987 16,844 16,746 16,831 17,099 17,177 17,138 16,422 16,758 FY2014 16,307 16,129 15,196 16,252 15,971

SUPP July August September October November December January February March April May June AverageFY2013 5,959 5,904 5,752 5,591 5,537 5,552 5,658 5,707 5,674 5,634 5,592 5,657 5,685 FY2014 5,801 5,823 5,911 5,742 5,819

Total July August September October November December January February March April May June AverageFY2013 53,618 53,808 52,709 52,299 52,377 52,261 52,433 52,649 52,908 53,157 53,158 52,829 52,851 FY2014 52,728 52,468 50,716 51,240 - - - - - - - - 51,788

FY13/14 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

11

Data Report created on November 26, 2013

Total Awarded Slots is 14,772 and Allowable Flex Slots is 848. 322 of the 355 additional contract slots awarded have been filled. 23 Vendors representing 25 contracts are Over 5% Flex **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.Total awarded slots for Homeless is 593 and Teen 519. - Homeless: filled 594, open 99 - Teen: filled 418, open 101

Report Date Regular Filled Regular Open Flex Filled Flex Open Flex - Over 5% Flex - Under 5%11/26/2013 12,875.0 1,897.0 174.0 674.0 (61.5) 826.5 10/30/2013 12,764.0 2,008.0 168.5 679.5 (72.0) 751.5 9/26/2013 12,438.0 2,361.0 171.0 680.5 (71.5) 752.0 8/31/2013 12,190.0 2,610.0 106.0 745.0 (41.5) 786.5 7/31/2013 13,052.0 1,748.0 145.0 706.5 (71.5) 778.0 5/27/2013 13,395.0 1,404.0 201.5 649.5 (96.5) 746.0 4/29/2013 13,567.0 1,267.0 209.5 647.5 (100.0) 747.5 3/28/2013 13,587.0 1,256.0 210.0 647.0 (99.5) 746.5 2/28/2013 13,195.5 1,292.5 213.5 643.5 (98.5) 742.0 1/31/2013 13,123.0 1,365.0 428.0 429.0 (289.0) 718.0 1/1/2013 12,783.5 1,706.5 400.0 457.0 (273.0) 730.0

11/28/2012 12,881.5 1,608.5 426.5 421.5 (289.0) 719.5

Archived and Reactivated Children on Waitlist

12

Data Report created on November 27, 2013Net change for number of children archived/reactivated to date in November is 1436

September total archived children: 1436 representing 1062 families.September total reactivated children: 46 representing 34 families.

** Note: User is defined as EEC, CCR&R or Contract ProviderJuly excludes 7/25/2013; significant auto-archiving occurred, archived children system: 12,789 and archived children user: 9896

Num

ber o

f A

rchi

ved

and

R

eact

ivat

ed C

hild

ren

on W

aitli

st

Archived Month Archived Children System

Archived Families System Archived Children User Archived Families User Reactivated Children Reactivated Families

11/ 1/ 2013-11/ 26/ 2013 1,402 1,041 35 22 46 3410/ 1/ 2013-10/ 31/ 2013 1,917 1,421 63 39 162 113

9/ 1/ 2013-9/ 30-2013 1,925 1,411 65 38 204 1518/ 1/ 2013-8/ 31/ 2013 1,496 1,109 93 50 165 112

7/ 29/ 2013-7/ 31/ 2013 (excludes 7/ 25/ 13) 239 175 18 11 29 21Total 3,660 2,695 176 99 398 284

1,4

02

1,9

17

1,9

25

1,4

96

239

1,0

41

1,4

21

1,4

11

1,1

09

175

35

63

65

93

18

22

39

38

50

11

46

162

204

165

29

34

113

151

112

21

-

400

800

1,200

1,600 Archived Children Syste m

Archived Families System

Archived Children User

Archived Families User

Reactivated Children

Reactivated Families

Caseload Waitlist: 12/2012 - 11/2013

13.

Data Report created on November 26, 2013** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state

Priority12/31/12

Total01/31/13

Total02/28/13

Total3/28/13

Total4/30/13

Total5/28/13

Total6/30/13

Total7/31/2013

Total8/30/13

Total9/26/13

Total10/30/13

Total11/26/13

Total Chi ld of Foster Care 282 288 290 285 289 299 305 169 180 194 196 174 Chi ld of Homeles s family 536 558 566 576 591 609 641 454 458 487 479 437 Chi ld of Mi l i tary Personnel 105 116 116 123 117 90 91 68 44 43 49 52 Chi ld of Teen Parent 481 489 513 507 523 525 556 365 389 423 414 370 Chi ld with Specia l Needs 2,198 2,234 2,291 2,355 2,442 2,524 2,615 1,776 1,893 1,922 1,816 1,698 Continui ty of Care: Prior Year Summer Only 135 149 161 164 167 173 177 139 151 163 157 150 Continui ty of Care: Aging Out 411 402 398 399 404 414 416 205 248 274 253 241 Continui ty of Care: Approved Break in Servi ce 451 470 473 482 490 523 585 484 493 530 502 466 Continui ty of Care: ARRA 149 148 146 141 142 143 141 51 54 60 52 43 Continui ty of Care: Geographic Relocation 186 198 201 207 221 222 224 145 154 161 159 155 Continui ty of Care: Homeles s Contract 27 29 32 31 30 37 35 29 30 29 29 33 Continui ty of Care: Supportive Referra l 279 288 296 308 324 352 371 256 265 284 280 275 Continui ty of Care: Teen Parent Contract 32 28 27 28 28 29 30 16 18 22 24 26 Genera l Priori ty 40,431 41,722 42,588 43,315 44,861 45,970 47,737 32,881 34,266 35,725 34,708 33,147 Grandparent/Guardian Famil ies 547 565 566 576 584 609 632 349 344 350 345 335 No Priority - Other Family Member 295 314 327 338 363 393 422 357 381 411 401 397 Parent with Specia l Needs 806 805 807 807 823 840 837 436 424 426 381 347 Sibl ing: Contract 672 714 729 771 788 804 850 737 753 792 775 713 Sibl ing: Voucher 804 833 845 870 815 792 797 544 566 542 435 425 Summer only care 893 919 923 958 1,024 1,074 1,233 853 856 863 879 867 N/A 541 523 518 509 501 500 495 4 6 16 14 11

Grand Total 49,720 51,269 52,295 53,241 55,026 56,422 58,695 40,318 41,973 43,717 42,348 40,362