FY11 Budget and Caseload Update

Policy and Fiscal CommitteeJune 6, 2011

FY11 Caseload Overview

Supportive: The projected surplus has decreased from $11.3M last month to $10.7M this month. The decrease in surplus is due to adjustment of previous month’s head count and April’s actual count exceeding projection by 176 children.

DTA-Related Caseload: The deficiency has increased from $5.8M last month to $6.7M this month. Two factors seem to drive the increase: 1) caseload for the months of February and March were adjusted by 843 children (February increased by 120 and March by 723) and 2) actual caseload in April was 267 children more than anticipated. We base our projections on historical data.

Income Eligible: The deficiency in Income Eligible increased from $9.3M to $12.4M (an increase of $3M). Factors that have caused the increase are 1) actual voucher caseload in April was 615 children higher than projected. This indicates that continuity of care and other growth factors are exceeding attrition. The prior month’s adjustment for March increased the actual March caseload by 853 children; actual voucher average daily rate was $1.60 higher than projected in April; and Contract/flex, which is projected using YTD average, exceeded projection by $477K.

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FY 2011 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

Month # of kids Amount # of kids Amount # of Kids Amount

*Jul 18,697 9,702,549$ 16,062 10,187,406$ 34,759 19,889,956$

*Aug 18,415 9,646,549$ 16,193 10,196,646$ 34,608 19,843,195$

*Sep 18,415 8,286,999$ 17,041 10,136,690$ 35,456 18,423,689$

*Oct 17,881 8,612,663$ 16,486 9,869,406$ 34,367 18,482,070$

*Nov 17,569 8,961,080$ 16,851 10,522,531$ 34,420 19,483,611$

*Dec 18,296 9,804,939$ 16,886 11,267,908$ 35,182 21,072,847$

*Jan 18,741 8,854,799$ 16,924 10,197,271$ 35,665 19,052,069$

*Feb 19,118 9,103,945$ 16,938 10,000,466$ 36,056 19,104,411$

*Mar 17,765 9,918,398$ 17,038 11,558,587$ 34,803 21,476,985$

Apr 17,265 9,292,117$ 16,936 10,564,278$ 34,201 19,856,395$

May 16,765 9,474,142$ 16,359 10,526,978$ 33,124 20,001,119$

Jun 16,265 9,203,021$ 14,929 11,026,978$ 31,194 20,229,999$

110,861,201$ 126,055,146$ 236,916,347$

9,026,964$

245,943,311$

233,527,427$

(12,415,884)$

Total Forecasted Spending

FY11 Appropriated

Project Amount Available

Vouchers Contracts/Flex Total Population

Grants

* Actual Figures• Previous month projected a $9.3M deficiency.

Income Eligible: Voucher and Contract Expenditure Trend

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• This chart shows the volatility of the voucher average daily spending per month. The voucher caseload daily cost (aggregate) in the past three months, the months in which access has been closed, has been among the most expensive in FY11.

FY 2011 Income Eligible Caseload Projected Cost

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FY11 Approp: $233.5M

Blue represents actual amount billed

Current projections indicate that, even with transferability, EEC will be unable to meet the cost of June billing (processed in late July)

Data source: Data extract 2011/04/26

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Data source: Data extract 2011/04/26

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Fiscal Year 2011 DTA Related (3000-4050)

Previous month projected a $5.7M deficiency.

Month # of Vouchers Amount*July 17,236 $11,384,565

*August 17,114 $11,534,836*September 17,098 $10,670,860

*October 16,850 $11,232,697*November 17,062 $11,656,535*December 16,881 $11,995,464*January 16,079 $10,146,404*February 16,228 $10,242,797

*March 16,445 $11,408,304*April 16,303 $11,182,621May 16,113 $11,305,926June 16,233 $11,390,206

$134,151,215$127,358,313

(6,792,902)$ *Actual Amount

Amount Appropriated

DTA Related Caseload (3000-4050)

Projected Deficiency

FY2011 DTA Caseload Projected Cost

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FY11 Approp: $127.3M

Blue = Actual amount billedGreen = Projection

EEC will need to request supplemental funding to support the June expenses.

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Fiscal Year 2011 Supportive Care (3000-3050)

Month Kids Amount*July 6,260 6,516,395$ *August 6,153 6,492,854$ *September 6,011 6,056,861$ *October 5,688 5,856,497$ *November 5,624 6,149,743$ *December 5,621 6,086,249$ *January 5,505 5,841,237$ *February 5,570 5,741,137$ *March 5,682 6,402,818$ *April 5,692 6,031,866$ May 5,707 6,179,669$ June 5,965 6,959,371$

74,314,696$ 600,000$

74,914,696$ 85,713,747$ 10,799,051$ Projected Surplus

Supportive Care (3000-3050)

GrantsProjected ExpenseAppropriated

Previous month projected a surplus of $11.3M.

FY 2011 Supportive Caseload Projected Cost

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FY11 Approp: $85.7M

Blue = Actual amount billed

FY11 Caseload Overview – SummaryJuly 2010 – March 2011

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FY2011 Caseload Spending FY2011 Projection

Variance Projection vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 129,556,565$ 126,055,146$ 3,501,419$ Voucher 94,941,586$ 110,861,201$ (15,919,615)$ Grants 9,029,276$ 9,026,964$ 2,313$

233,527,427$ 245,943,311$ (12,415,884)$ DTA Voucher 127,358,313$ 134,151,215$ (6,792,902)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 74,191,608$ 69,099,237$ 5,092,371$ Voucher 10,922,139$ 5,215,459$ 5,706,680$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

85,713,747$ 74,914,696$ 10,799,051$ Total 446,599,487$ 455,009,222$ (8,409,735)$

4,000,000$ 1,000,000$

(3,409,735)$ Add'l CCDF Funding (Need Supp from Leg. to spend)

ARRA CCDF Transfer

Total Supplemental Need

Deficiency Resolution

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Below are the options remaining to resolve the deficiency:

1. ARRA CCDF: Apply FY09 CCDF ARRA Funds to Income Eligible funded childcare services for care that is not supplanted. Potential source is to identify the number of new preschool children in FY11 that were assigned to IE vouchers and/or contracts.

Use approximately $4.0M in ARRA CCDF funds to support CCDF eligible expenditures in the Income Eligible account for the months of May and June.

This strategy has been reviewed by ANF, the Comptroller’s Office, the State Auditor’s Office, and Administration for Children and Families and all have supported this activity.

2. CCDF Funds: EEC received approximately $1M in CCDF supplemental funds which we will apply to the deficit.

3. Supplemental Funding: Request Supplemental Funding from the Legislature for the DTA account to offset the DTA deficit. This request has been submitted to ANF.

What Happened?

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March Update (Feb Adj.)

April Update (March Adj.)

Total Late Biller From Previous Month 1,643 1,854 Income Eligible 1,163 964

Voucher 1,121 853 Contracts 42 111

Supportive (63) 167 Voucher 34 3 Contracts (97) 164

DTA 543 723

Total Vouchers 1,698 1,579 Total Contracts (55) 275 Approximate Cost 3,773,680$ 3,577,612$

What Else Do We Know?

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Late Billing Vouchers: 1,579 children 124 of these children were also billed late in March for February. 81 (5.12%) of the children billed in April received services for the first time in

March. For comparison:  73 of 1698 children (4.3%) billed in March for February

received services for the first time in February. There are 32 providers (representing 206 of the children) that had late

billing this month (April for March) and had late billing last month (March for February).

  Contracts: 275 children

None of the children billed late in April for March services were billed late in March for February services.

16 (5.81%) of the children billed in April received services for the first time in March.

For comparison:  15 of 42 children (35.71%) billed in March for February received services for the first time in February.

There are 7 providers (representing 20 of the children) that had late billing this month (April for March) and had late billing last month (March for February).

ARRA Spending Update

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Program Budgeted Spent as of 6/8 Spent as of May

26, 2011 Amount Unspent ARRA Admin Chargeback (E56 Object Class .4%) 95,868$ -$ 95,868$ -$ ARRA Monitors 298,428$ -$ 138,823$ 159,605$ Birth to 8 Leadership Institute 125,000$ -$ 72,956$ 52,044$

CCR&R - to assist with provider reassessment transition 934,351$ 617,713$ 934,351$ (0)$ CCRR Streamlining 561,187$ -$ 365,932$ 195,255$ CCRR Business Model 75,000$ -$ 44,800$ 30,200$ CFCE Infrastructure Grants (111) 246,436$ -$ 236,436$ 10,000$

Communications Infrastructure Strategy andCampaign 498,500$ -$ 199,000$ 299,500$ Contracted Providers - Voucher Reassessment 881,809$ 143,880$ 880,384$ 1,425$ CSEFEL Professional Development Opportunity 300,000$ -$ 192,784$ 107,216$ Early Childhood Info Systems (ECIS) 710,170$ -$ 246,280$ 463,890$ Early Literacy Program 225,000$ -$ 183,833$ 41,167$ Head Start Wraparound Care 702,779$ -$ 428,423$ 274,356$ Improvement of Physical Environments 500,000$ -$ 449,181$ 50,819$ Infant/Toddlers Early Childhood program standards 50,000$ 4,150$ 50,000$ -$ Infant/Toddler Rate Increase 1,964,736$ -$ -$ 1,964,736$ Information and Referral Program 150,000$ 150,000$ 150,000$ -$ IT - 2 consultants to reconfigure existing IT structure 149,015$ 54,672$ 110,275$ 38,740$ IT - Software Dev Consultant: EEC IS Security 112,510$ -$ 67,564$ 44,946$ Kindergarten Entry Enrichment Program - KEEP 1,274,937$ -$ 272,691$ 1,002,246$ LEPPD Spanish (Speaking Providers) Formerly named Professional Dev/Access to Higher Ed for LEP 150,000$ -$ 123,073$ 26,927$ Out of School Time Learning 499,000$ 57,955$ 499,000$ -$ PD Research Project 165,000$ -$ 135,000$ 30,000$ PSCCE - Pre School Child Care Education (Originally 18 month access for PS) 6,876,911$ -$ 4,429,483$ 2,447,428$ QRIS-Consultant-Award Grants 3,400,000$ -$ 3,328,229$ 71,771$ QRIS - ERSI 145,416$ 85,416$ 139,314$ 6,102$ Readiness Centers (Iwheelock College) 196,963$ -$ 98,482$ 98,482$ Readiness Centers 400,000$ -$ 291,667$ 108,334$ REKEEP: KEEP Before & After School Care 197,969$ -$ 93,533$ 104,436$ Summer Vouchers 2009 636,714$ 636,714$ 636,714$ (0)$ Summer Only Voucher 2010 650,000$ 52,840$ 690,848$ (40,848)$ Waitlist Study 490,096$ -$ 285,048$ 205,048$ Indirect Charges 303,147$ -$ 219,069$ 84,078$

23,966,942$ 1,803,340$ 16,089,040$ 7,877,902$

• We have spent $16.1M in ARRA funds (67.13%) through May 31.  The goal was to have spent $17.6M by the end of May.  The projection is under goal partly because the Infant/Toddler rate increase was not implemented.

Addendum:FY11 Caseload Waitlist Since 9/2010

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Waiting List Category 9/29 Total 10/28 Total 11/30 Total 12/28 Total 1/28 Total 2/28 Total 3/31 Total 4/29 Total5/31/11

TotalChild of Foster Care 84 79 88 69 62 60 68 73 96 Child of Homeless family 141 149 145 126 131 123 125 123 126 Child of Military Personnel 30 25 23 28 31 30 33 34 36 Child of Teen Parent 98 121 108 109 82 88 96 103 108 Child with Special Needs 750 814 684 625 663 670 753 799 800 Continuity of Care: Aging Out 116 206 123 110 103 86 99 111 113 Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service 195 203 49 54 67 74 94 88

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Continuity of Care: Child Left Care within 3 Months 145 189 124 82 74 59 55 53

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Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation26 36 40 35 35 40 50 59

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Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 3 4 3 8 5 4 4 4 4 Continuity of Care: NTCC 2 2 1 1 1 1 Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 96 103 79 64 84 65 72 68 77 Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 25 23 21 15 12 13 13 13 14 General Priority 15,324 16,547 15,081 13,618 14,292 15,191 16,913 18,300 18,847 Grandparent/Guardian Families 241 278 251 236 247 245 249 260 278 Parent with Special Needs 343 397 344 321 331 361 402 445 449 Sibling: Contract 216 186 180 149 144 145 154 173 173 Sibling: CPC 1 Sibling: Voucher 346 314 300 252 253 272 248 295 313 Summer only care 551 499 445 393 391 395 432 489 524 Grand Total 18,733 20,175 18,089 16,294 17,007 17,921 19,861 21,491 22,155