fx weekly - sep 4 - sep 10 2011

8/4/2019 FX Weekly - Sep 4 - Sep 10 2011

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The markets enjoyed a strong dollar move up

last week. This current move up is expected to

die out and make another move lower to

finish it's long term bearish decline. We may

have some volatility over the US Holiday for

Monday. We may see some US Dollar strength

to start the week, but do not expect it to

continue, a move down to the lows again is

expected, which will bring risk appetite back

into play for the currency markets. Keep an

eye on some key events this week starting

with RBA Rate Decision on Tuesday early AM,

BOJ has their Rate Decision on Tuesday night,

the CAD has their Rate Decision on

Wednesday, EUR and GBP have theirs onThursday Morning. Should be an interesting

week with all these rate decisions. None are

expected to raise rates, with a much expected

quiet tone across the board. A much expected

busy month of September as most come back

from summer vacations.

Fundamental Outlook

Elite Global

Trading Forex Weekly CommentarySep 4th Sep 10th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 18

In this issue:

GBPUSD: The Pound has a dovish outlookfrom the BOE and does not expect any rate

change this week. As this most current move

down to 1.6132 from 1.6617 unravels we

expect some congestion in the days to come

with a possible rally up towards 1.6330 area

before another move down to test the lows. If

the 1.6100 area holds we expect another test

of highs near 1.6700 and possible a move up

towards 1.7000 area. With the current

outlook looking bleak in the UK we do favor

the downside towards 1.5700 over the month

of September, but can't rule out anther strong

move up, which would coincide with another

bearish move for the US Dollar. We keep both

as possibilities and will adapt as one of the

opportunities unravels itself.

Recommendation : Neutral Bias, looking for arally in this current bearish move towards

1.6330 area. Another move down is likely

before a bottom is found to support a stronger

move up. We like looking at shorting after the

rally finishes, if short term outlook turnsbullish we will look to enter for a move up to

the highs. Support sits at 1.6130, 1.6110,

1.6060, and 1.6000. Resistance stands at

1.6247, 1.6317, 1.6340 and 1.6375.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD 1

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

EURCHF

2

EURUSD

EURJPY3

GBPJPY

Event Risk4

Contact Info

Disclaimer5
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8/4/2019 FX Weekly - Sep 4 - Sep 10 2011

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Elite Global

Trading

Sep 4th Sep 10th 2011 Volume 1, Issue 18

AUDUSD: The most recent move up towards1.0765 has been a three wave rally, we are ina pullback from this move up, we look for the

pullback to find support around 1.0600 -

1.0540 area before the move up continues to

find a top, which is expected around 1.0780-

1.0800.

Recommendation: Bullish Bias, a pullback isexpected to start the week off finding support

between 1.0600-1.0540 area. Once support

holds and is confirmed we do see this pairmaking another move up to find a top. Careful

on playing the pullback in the longer move up,

keep an eye on support levels.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

EURCHF: All the CHF pairs are looking verysimilar. The past week we have had a massive

drop from the tops looking at a 900 pip drop

in the EURCHF last week, currently trading

200 pips up from last weeks low. The move

down from the high does not look fully over

yet, we do expect a rally to some higher

resistance levels before another move down

to some lower levels. The longer term look is

for a move to go break most recent highs, but

before that we do expect another bottom

lower to be formed over the following weeks.

Resistance is at 1.1233, 1.1315, 1.1371 and

1.1486. Support sits at 1.1165, 1.1060,

1.1000, 1.0900 and stronger support at

1.0794.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, with the SNBhaving the possibility of intervening at any

point it is always a risk that needs to

evaluated when trading the CHF pairs. We

most likely will see a further move up towards

resistance before another drop, you can play

this rally or wait for a confirmed lower top to

go short. If you do play this rally use support

levels mentioned to place stops below and

keep your awareness high of the resistance

points.

Euro / Swiss Franc

NZDUSD: The outlook for this pair looks verysimilar to the AUDUSD. The pair looks to

make a pullback down towards .8400-.8340

area. Another move up towards .8600-.8650

is expected over the weeks to come before

another move down to the lows of .7900

level.

Recommendation: Bullish Bias, look for thepullback to finish around .8400 area and look

for a long play back up to .8600 area before a

much larger move down occurs.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

8/4/2019 FX Weekly - Sep 4 - Sep 10 2011

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Elite Global

Trading


EURJPY: This pair has stayed with it's longerterm bearish outlook and trades near lows of

last month. We do see this pair accelerating

it's downward move to retest the 108.00 level

and a look to further lows near 106.00 area.

Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for arally to enter on the bearish side below

112.00, above 112.80 look for this pair to

make moves higher. Support sits at 108.50

108.00, 107.60 and 107.00. Resistance

points to watch for, 109.50 109.90, 110.44

and 111.00.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURUSD: This pair continues to trade withinthe triangle that has been unfolding since

May. This range has been in connection of

both the US and Euro zone state of affairs and

crisis' that has been dealt with over the past

several months, with continued uncertainty of

a possible recession and debt crisis, the pair

looks to continue to trade with-in this range

for sometime moving forward. A break out

below 1.3840 or above 1.4550 cannot be

ruled out, but will most likely happen along

with a strong fundamental move in either US

or Euro zone. In the meantime respect thelevels of support and resistance in this range

while trading this pair, we look for further

losses in this pair moving down towards

support of 1.4150-1.4050. With these levels

holding we will look for another move up

towards resistance levels of 1.4315-50,

1.4440 area.

Recommendation: Neutral Bias, Look forfurther downward movement over the next

few days while the pair finds support. A move

down to 1.4150, 1.4109 and 1.4050 is

expected, pair should find support in these

areas. Resistance on upside resides at

1.4277, 1.4350, 1.4380, 1.4440. The pair

will be looking for a bottom, with a desired

move back to highs in the days to come. A

break and close below 1.3950 will give

suspect to another move up and will build a

case to a stronger move down towards the

mid 1.3000's.

Euro / United States Dollar

8/4/2019 FX Weekly - Sep 4 - Sep 10 2011

4/5

Elite Global

Trading


Monday:GBP: Services PMI 4:30am

EUR: Retail Sales 5am

GBP: Retail Sales 7:01pm

AUD: Home Loans 9:30pm

AUD: Current Account 9:30pm

Tuesday:AUD: RBA Rate Statement 12:30am

CHF: CPI 3:15am

EUR: German Factory Orders 6am

USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI10am

AUD: GDP 9:30am

JPY: Monetary Policy Statement

Wednesday:GBP: Manufacturing Production 4:30am

EUR: German Industrial Production 6am

CAD: BOC Rate Statement 9am

CAD: Ivey PMI 10am

USD: Beige Book 2pm

AUD: Employment Change 9:30pm

AUD: Unemployment Rate 9:30pm

Thursday:GBP: MPC Rate Statement 7am

EUR: Min Bid Rate 7:45am

EUR: ECB Press Conference 8:30am

USD: Trade Balance 8:30am

USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am

CNY: CPI 10pm

Friday:GBP: PPI 4:30am

GBP: Trade Balance 4:30am

CAD: Employment Change 7am

CAD: Unemployment Rate 7am

CAD: Housing Starts 8:15am

Weeks Event Risk

GBPJPY: This pair is very similar to the EURJPYand looks to make further declines over theweek to come. A rally up towards 125.50-

126.00 is very likely to start the week off. The

decline towards 123.28 last months low is

very likely in the days to come, a break of this

level we look to see further declines to

122.00 and further down to 2009 lows of

118.75.

Recommendation : Bearish Bias, looking forshorts after the rally near 126.00.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

8/4/2019 FX Weekly - Sep 4 - Sep 10 2011

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Any reliance you place onsuch information is thereforestrictly at your own risk.

In no event will we be liable for any

loss or damage including without

limitation, indirect or consequential

loss or damage, or any loss or

damage whatsoever arising from

loss of data or profits arising out of,

or in connection with, the use of this

newsletter.

The information contained in this

newsletter is for general information

purposes only. The information is

provided by Elite Global Trading and

while we endeavor to keep the

information up to date and correct,

we make no representations or

warranties of any kind, express or

implied, about the completeness,

accuracy, reliability, suitability or

availability with respect to the

newsletter or the information,

products, services, or related

graphics contained on the

newsletter for any purpose.

News letter Authors:

Anthony [email protected]

James [email protected]

Tel: 786-759-0348

E-mail:

[email protected]

Elite Global Trading

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fx weekly - sep 4 - sep 10 2011

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