FUTURE OF ENERGY

MICHEL SALOFF-COSTE

2015 05 15Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Future of energy

1. A short history of energy in past civilizations

2. The actual global situation

3. Four scenarios for the future of energy

4. Scenarios implementations for Nordic countries

5. Discussion on the future of energy

1. A short history of energy in past civilizations

• Antique world – Biomass

– Manpower /animal power

• Middle-ages / Renaissance– Hydraulic and wind-power

• Industrial revolution– Coal and steam-engine

– Oil and internal-combustion engine

– Electricity and information

5

2. The actual global situation

• Fossil fuels dominant

- coal, oil, natural gas

• Growth of the demand

- emerging countries

• New concerns

- energy supply

- global warming

Share of the world primary energy supply

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

Biomass andwasteHydroelectricity

Source: IEA (WEO 2012) – 2010 Figures

1 toe / cap.

2 toe / cap.

2000 20501970

1,5

1,7

2010 202019901980

1,35

2,1

3 toe/ cap.

2030 2040

Trend

Limitation scenario

Degrowth scenario

Evolution of the energy consumption per capita (world)

IPCC Scenario 4 th report

Projections of global average surface temperature show

we’re heading for a climatic state far outside the range of

variation of the last 1000 years.

We are on the way to making the world hotter in the 21st

century than it has been in the last million years.

Temperature, past and future

                           

•Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

•Warming under a doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial level

•Warming under a quadrupling from pre-industrial level.

•Under quadrupling CO2, North hemisphere mid-continent average warming is 8 - 12 C

                           

Global sea-level rise as recorded by satellite measurements (upper line with linear trend), with IPCC projections (2001) and range of

uncertainty

2 toe 4 toe

5

CO

2em

issi

on

s /c

ap

. (t

/year)

1 toe

10

Sc. I 2°( 2 - 3)

Sc. II - III - IV 4°( 3 - 6)

Sc. V - VI 5 °( 4 - 8)

Energy precarity

Ecological catastrophe

2050:9.3 Billion people

Energy consumption (toe/cap.year)

80% fossil60% fossil

3 toe

« Growth »

« Technology »

« Degrowth »

« Carbon intensive »

50% fossil

Energy - climate scenario

210020502000

Non fossil Energy share

%100

50

0

100

50

Europe ?

World

Energy transition deployment

Long term scenario

1800

22502050

Long term scenario (I)

Energy consumptionper capita

Long term scenario (II)

Long term scenario (III)

Nuclear (fission/fusion) ?

Renewable energy sources ?

Collapse

Population breakdown in case of a planetary state shift

1,7 Billion inhabitants

7 Billionsinhabitants

1900 2100

Worldpopulation

9 Billionsinhabitants

2011 20501950

Breakdown

New Middle-agesand slow recovery

                           

COMPLEXITYHigher far of equilibriumLower entropyHigher density of free energy flowHigher structural complexityHigher organization levels

TIME

Dynamic stability on level n

Introduction of fluctuations

Evolution 2nd orderjumping transition

Breakdown, collapse

Possible new levels(not realized yet)

Find a pragmatic way

• Find a pragmatic way, compatible with

general interest

• No solution really satisfactory for global

warming.

May be a too big problem for humanity to

solve

• High risk of global collapse: need to combine

all the solutions (reduce the demand,

diversify the sources,

innovate)

• Define coherent and rational, rather than

ideological or emotional choices

Reducing the energy consumption

• Sobriety, frugality - Using less matter and energy

• Efficiency - Technology

• New ways of life - Autonomy, resilience

- Infrastructures

Progress and potential disruptions

o Incremental progress rather than disruptions

o Comparatively slow progress (shale gas)

o Huge investments required for a low-carbon economy o Energy storage remains a major bottle-neck

o Surprises cannot be excluded!

Energy choices and world view

United States, China: • Power and domination: cheap

energy

• United States: to control space and communications, shale gas

• China: to became the World center, coal

Europe: • The European dream

• Post-industrial, end-of-the-work society

• Internet-like access to energy

Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s /i

nh

(t/

year)

Energy consumption (toe/inh year)2 4 6 8 toe

9

1 3 5 7

18

United-States

9

China

France

GermanyJapan

India

Denmark

1,5 t CO2 / toe

2,7 t CO2 / toe

World

Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base

Sweden

3,7 t CO2 / toe

Austria

3. Four scenarios for the future of energy

Scenario Purple: --

Scenario Red : +-

Scenario Orange : ++

Scenario Yellow : -+

Four scenarios for the future of energy

CollapseHigh probability in case of business as usualEnd of big mammalsPlanet will recoverMostly bad for humans and animals

Scenario Purple: --

Clash of civilizationsAs resources will be rare, cultures and continents will fight again each othersReal politic logicHuntington vision American, Chinese and Russian temptationPerhaps no winner this time!

Scenario Red : +-

Technology break throughNano Info Bio ConvergenceTrans-humanismThe Californian and scientists “way”High inequality, social disruption and ecological disinterest

Scenario Orange : ++

Scenario Yellow : -+

Sustainable developmentTransformation Techno Socio EcoGlobal peaceKnowledge society Systemic approach of the economy, society and ecologyTrans-disciplinarian vision

4. Scenarios’ implementations for Nordic countries

CO

2 e

mis

sion

s /i

nh

(t/

year)

Energy consumption (toe/inh year)2 4 6 8 toe

9

1 3 5 7

18

United-States

9

China

France

GermanyJapan

India

Denmark

1,5 t CO2 / toe

2,7 t CO2 / toe

World

Year 2011, source BP St. Rev.+ EDGAR Data base

Sweden

3,7 t CO2 / toe

Austria

Primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions

Samsø has a new attraction – the Energy Academy close to the picturesque harbor village and tourist magnet Ballen. Samsø has amassed a great deal of concrete experiences with the implementation of a broad variety of local renewable energy project, from wind turbines to CO2 neutral district heating plants, rapeseed oil tractors and solar energy panels.

This experience can be drawn upon through the Academy and research workers and scientists from at home and abroad spend time at the Academy doing research based on the easy access to all these different energy systems, where windmills, straw-based districting heating and thermal solar panels systems and the people who initiated them are close at hand.

The Academy also functions as a conference center where companies, scientists and politicians can discuss renewable energy, energy savings and new technologies.

Samsø Energy and Environment Office, Samsø Energy Agency and the Samsø branch office of the Danish Energy Service reside in the Energy Academy.

Samsø

CONCLUSION

Four typical type of illusion and “vanity”

• Just wait the end of the cycle: fatalism

• Return to old traditional solution: fundamentalism

• Hope that science will solve problems: scientism

• Prepare our self and our community to a chaotic transition: a

pragmatic solution but not really efficient because of the

hysteresis of our global planetary ecological sociological and

economic system.

Why we need a global vision?

• “Business as usual” bring us in “hell”

• Our actual action will have an effect on the long term that

future generation would not be able to reverse even if they

wish to do so

• Transitional adaptation will not be sufficient and effective in

front of a disruption of high amplitude which may even

challenge survival probability of most of the mammals over the

size of mouse!

How we can develop a new vision

• Enhance the democratic process

• Develop integral education

• Spread integral open innovation ecosystem of research and actions

• Multiply opportunity of dialogue between cultures and disciplines

• Develop understanding of the past and a will to imagine new futures

Methods

• We are bringing together diverse institutions that have a range of existing, relevant skills and proven methodologies for performing analyses of alternative futures and studying their implications.

• Our methods include:

  1. Cultivating Diversity and Otherness2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch4. Managing the Process Holistically 5. Using Trends and Dimensions6. Establishing a Creative Process Supplying Specific and Short

Term Outputs for Decision Making

1. Cultivating Diversity and Difference

• Understand that a complex world needs diversity in ways of thinking.

• The future will emerge from the complexity of our diversity. We cannot think of the future outside of this diversity. This is why we need to cultivate diversity, diversity of specialties, cultures, organisations.

• Our research team is an answer to the need of diversity. We are coming from various different countries, fields of expertise and organisations.

2. Modelling Alternative Future Scenarios• It is possible today to model thousands of different futures,

based on variations in a set of assumptions. Using existing “exploratory modelling” tools, we can provide instant visualisation of the different possibilities in a rich, multidimensional space.

• Such visualisation is extraordinary helpful in becoming aware of critical factors affecting those futures.

3. Mixing High Tech and High Touch

• We use the Internet and other new technologies to communicate efficiently and independently of space and time

• We have regular meetings in person, with experimental workshops and innovatively designed processes.

4. Managing the Process Holistically

• The rational approach must be supported by a concern for the affective process. A place must be left open for spiritual intuition and creative imagination.

• We support the fact that science, art and spirituality can bring in their different domains very important insights for understanding the future. But it is also a way of life, a way to be open to the instant presence.

• There is time and place in our work for moments of rationality, emotional expression and inquiry about meaning.

 

5. Using Trends and Dimensions

• Particular attention will be given to existing qualitative trends and their re-evaluation during the course of our research.

• Various polarities identified in our previous work – to be re-examined and explored further – are: transparency vs. privacy, abundance vs. scarcity, diversity vs. homogeneity, etc.

Short Term Outputs for

Decision Making

Cultivating Diversity

and Otherness

Modelling Alternative

Future Scenarios

Mixing High Tech and High

Touch

Managing the Process Holistically

Using Trends and Dimensions

Jalon 1• 2014

Jalon 2• 2015

Jalon 3• 2016

Jalon 4• 2017

Planning

Date 1

Date 2

Date 3

Date 4

Planning

Thank you!

ANNEXES

1. IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP

Documentation

2. Spiral Dynamics &

The Practice of Policy Governance

3. Design me a planet

Ten macro scenarios for a little star dust

4. What strategies of the future and

organizational transformation ?

Annexe 1IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP Documentation

I have work for 3 years for IDEES Fondation Tuck IFP the preeminent research center on Energy in France .All the documentation can be see here below and can be reach with link http://michelsaloffcoste.blogspot.fr/p/le-groupe-de-reflexion-idees-lenergie.html

My global conclusion can be fine here,  “Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?”

Le Groupe prospective - Transition Energie et SociétéAnimateur : Michel SALOFF-COSTE (biographie)Réunion au Château de Vert-Mont (plan d'accès)

•   10 juin 2013 : Séminaire "Prospective et énergie - Conclusion du cycle de réunions"   >>    Ordre du jour Présentations de Philippe DURANCE"Le rôle de la prospective dans le domaine de l’énergie", Alexandre ROJEY : "Énergie 2050 scénarios et perspectives" et Michel SALOFF-COSTE : "Quelle énergie à long terme pour le futur de la planète Terre ?" •   04 mars 2013 : Séminaire 12 "Nanotechnologies et énergie"   >>    Ordre du jour  -  Introduction Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY : "Les nanotechnologies et l'avenir de l'énergie" et Bernadette BENSAUDE VINCENT :    "Nanotechnologies et innovation responsable"  -  Compte-rendu•   03 décembre 2012 : Séminaire 11 "Ruptures scientifiques et techniques"     Ordre du jour  -  Introduction     Présentations de Pierre PAPON : "Des ruptures scientifiques pourraient-elles changer la donne énergétique?",     et Christian NGO : "L'avenir énergétique est-il écrit ?"  -  Compte-rendu•   18 octobre 2012 : Séminaire 10 "Prospective et scénarios énergétiques"   >>    Ordre du jour -  Introduction     Présentations de Jean-Eudes MONCOMBLE : "Les scénarios énergétiques à l'horizon 2050 : le point de vue du CME",     Nadia MAÏZI : "L'exercice prospectif et la fabrique de scénarios énergétiques : réflexion sur les approches 2050 pour la France" ,     Jean-Charles HOURCADE : " Politiques énergétiques, économiques et sociales ; autour de trois exemples de non prospective", Compte-rendu•   14 mai 2012 : Séminaire 9 "Feuilles de route Energie à l'horizon 2050"    >>    Ordre du jour  Présentations de Jacques PERCEBOIS et Claude MANDIL : "Rapport Energies 2050", Christian KIRCHSTEIGER : "EU Energy Roadmap 2050" et "Views on Reactor Safety Post-Fukushima"  -  Compte-rendu•   09 février 2012 : Séminaire 8 "Scénarios énergétiques et changement climatique"    >>    Ordre du jour    Présentations de Trevor MORGAN : "Les perspectives énergétiques de l'AIE à l'horizon 2035, conséquences sur le Changement    Climatique" , de Christian de PERTHUIS : "Trajectoires 2020-2050 vers une économie sobre en carbone : le cas français" et de Thierry SALOMON : "Le Scénario négaWatt 2011-2050 " - Compte rendu•   21 novembre 2011 : Séminaire 7 "Les scénarios énergétiques"    >>   Ordre du jour     Présentations de Nadine BRET-ROUZAUT "Scénarios énergétiques - Prévisions ou prospective" et de Patrick CRIQUI "Vers des sociétés sobres en carbone" -  Compte rendu•   26 septembre 2011 : Séminaire 6 "Maîtrise des risques et scénarios de prospective"     Ordre du jour    Présentation de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS "La maîtrise des risques dans le domaine de l'énergie" -  Compte rendu•   23 juin 2011 : Séminaire 5 "Géopolitique de l'énergie"      Ordre du jour    Présentations de Alexandre ROJEY "Rappel du fonctionnement du Think tank IDées" et de Jean-Pierre FAVENNEC : "Géopolitique de l'Energie" -  Compte rendu•   05 avril 2011 : Séminaire 4 "Aspirations et modes de vie : besoins en énergie"        Ordre du jour    Compte rendu•   08 février 2011 : Séminaire 3 "Les ruptures technologiques"      Ordre du jour  Présentations de Jean-Paul LANGLOIS : "Ruptures technologiques : le rôle du nucléaire" et d'Alexandre ROJEY :  "Transition fossiles => renouvelables - Les ruptures possibles" -  Compte rendu•   04 novembre 2010 : Séminaire 2 "L'énergie à l'horizon 2030 et au-delà"        Ordre du jour    Présentation de Bruno WEYMULLER : "Vision Long Terme de l'Avenir énergétique" -  Compte rendu•   02 septembre 2010 : Séminaire 1 "Anthropologie, énergie et société"      Ordre du jour  Présentation IDées - Présentations du Dr Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT : "Repenser l'énergie : une approche macrohistorique" et "De l'impératif d'une prospective évolutionniste" -  Compte rendu

Annexe 2Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance

53

Spiral Dynamics & The Practice of Policy Governance

Presented by

Susan S. Stratton, CAE

Partners in Policy Governance®

54

What is Spiral Dynamics?

• Spiral Dynamics is a powerful model and predictive theory of human

development and cultural evolution • Developed by Clare Graves and further developed by Don Beck and

Christopher Cowan• By exploring and describing the core intelligences and deep values

that flow beneath what we believe and do, the model offers a profoundly incisive, dynamic perspective on complex matters such as: · HOW people think about things (as opposed to “what” they think)

· WHY people make decisions in different ways

· WHY people respond to different motivators

· WHY and HOW values arise and spread

· The nature of CHANGE

55

From Clare W. Graves…

• “Briefly, what I am proposing is that the psychology of the mature human being is an unfolding, emergent, oscillating, spiraling process marked by progressive subordination of older, lower-behavior systems to newer, higher-order systems as man’s existential problems change.”

56

What is an integral theory?

• To integrate• To bring together• To join, to link, to embrace.• In the sense of unity-in-diversity

• Shared commonalities along with our wonderful differences.• The integration, alignment and synergy of multiple

elements, entities, interests and motives, weaving them together to create healthy, dynamic, and comprehensive solutions to complex problems within rapidly changing, complex environments.

• Keeping the whole spiral healthy, not diminishing any level.

57

What is a MEME?

• A MEME reflects:• A world view• A valuing system• A level of psychological existence• A belief structure• An organizing principle• A way of thinking or a mode of adjustment• A core intelligence that forms systems and directs

human behavior

58

What is a MEME?

A discrete structure for thinking, not just a set of ideas, values or a cause.• Represents a core intelligence that

forms systems and directs human behavior.

• Impacts upon all life choices as a decision-making framework.

• Manifests itself in both healthy and unhealthy forms.

• Brightens and dims as Life Conditions change.

Not rigid levels, but flowing waves with much overlap and interweaving, resulting in a meshwork or dynamic spiral of consciousness unfolding.

Each MEME wave includes arrested, closed and open states.• Arrested = Movement to new MEME is blocked; old MEMES are

available.• Closed = Psychological blindness keeps the person from seeing

alternatives• Open = Centralized in a MEME system, but can move freely in

any direction as shifting Life Conditions may require.

59

Basic Infrastructures Exist in Each MEME

• Economic policy• Educational policy• Health care policy• Environmental policy• Law enforcement action• Political gamesmanship• Military • Churches and religion• Governance

60

QUICK SUMMARY OF VALUE SYSTEMS CODES

61

BEIGE Instinctive/Survivalistic MEME - starting 100,000 years ago

• Basic theme: Do what you must just to stay alive

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Express-self

• Uses instincts and habits just to survive • Distinct self is barely awakened or sustained • Food, water, warmth, sex, and safety have priority• Forms into survival bands to perpetuate life

• Lives "off the land" much as other animals

62

PURPLE Magical/Animistic MEME - starting 50,000 years ago

• Obeys the desires of the spirit being and mystical signs

• Shows allegiance to chief, elders, ancestors, and the clan

• Individual subsumed in group

• Preserves sacred objects, places, events, and memories

• Observes rites of passage, seasonal cycles, and tribal

customs

• Basic theme: Keep the spirits happy and the tribe's nest warm and safe

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Sacrifice self

63

RED Impulsive/Egocentric MEME - starting 10,000 years ago

• The world is a jungle full of threats and predators

• Breaks free from any domination or constraint to please self as self desires

• Stands tall, expects attention, demands respect, and calls the shots

• Enjoys self to the fullest right now without guilt or remorse

• Conquers, out-foxes, and dominates other aggressive characters

Basic theme: Be what you are and do what you want, regardless

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Express-self

64

BLUE Purposeful/Authoritarian MEME - starting 5,000 years ago

• One sacrifices self to the transcendent Cause, Truth, or righteous Pathway

• The Order enforces a code of conduct based on eternal, absolute principles

• Righteous living produces stability now and guarantees future reward

• Impulsivity is controlled through guilt; everybody has their proper place

• Laws, regulations, and discipline build character and moral fiber

• Basic theme: Life has meaning, direction, and purpose with predetermined outcomes

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Sacrifice self

65

ORANGE Achievist/Strategic MEME - starting 300 years ago

• Change and advancement are inherent within the scheme of things

• Progresses by learning nature's secrets and seeking out best solutions

• Manipulates Earth's resources to create and spread the abundant good life

• Optimistic, risk-taking, and self-reliant people deserve success

• Societies prosper through strategy, technology, and competitiveness

• Basic theme: Act in your own self-interest by

playing the game to win

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Express-self

66

GREEN Communitarian/Egalitarian MEME - starting 150 years ago

• The human spirit must be freed from greed, dogma, and divisiveness

• Feelings, sensitivity, and caring supersede cold rationality

• Spreads the Earth's resources and opportunities equally among all

• Reaches decisions through reconciliation and consensus processes

• Refreshes spirituality, brings harmony, and enriches human development

• Basic theme: Seek peace within the inner self and explore, with others, the caring dimensions of community

• 1st Tier-Subsistence• Sacrifice self

67

YELLOW Integrative MEME—starting 50 years ago

• Life is a kaleidoscope of natural hierarchies, systems, and forms

• The magnificence of existence is valued over material possessions

• Flexibility, spontaneity, and functionality have the highest priority

• Differences can be integrated into interdependent, natural flows

• Understands that chaos and change are natural

• Basic theme: Live fully and responsibly as what you are and learn to become

• 2nd tier - “Being”• Express-self

68

TURQUOISE Holistic MEME—starting 30 years ago

• The world is a single, dynamic organism with its own collective mind

• Self is both distinct and a blended part of a larger, compassionate whole

• Everything connects to everything else in ecological alignments

• Energy and information permeate the Earth's total environment

• Holistic, intuitive thinking and cooperative actions are to be expected

• Basic theme: Experience the wholeness of existence through mind and spirit

• 2nd tier - “Being”• Sacrifice self

69

Implications for Pol Gov Practice?

Express Self Sacr

ifice

self

2

3

45

8

67

70

Implications for Pol Gov Practice

Express Self

Sacrifice self

Structure for Living

End Impact - Owner/Customer

Cultivate Group Responsibility/ Embrace Diversity

Board as Learning Community

Board as Collective Voice

Sustainability Breakdown

Dysfunction to be resolved by PG

4

8

7

6

5

32

71

Stages of Change

Something’s Wrong

Break Out

Trapped

Evolutionary Option

Revolutionary Option

Alpha Stage New Alpha

Delta Surge

Beta Stage

Gamma Stage

Barrier

72

Stages of Change

• Alpha - No worries; illusion of stability• Beta - Doubts arise; the boat is rocking

• We try more of the same because nothing is wrong with the “system”—only its implementation or enforcement.

• Gamma - Growing frustration; feeling trapped; acting out behaviors; self-destructive.• The Revolutionary Option against the status quo.

• Demands fundamental change in structures/systems• Unrelenting “all or nothing” assault on barriers and obstacles• Defends actions by finding noble purpose in “the Cause”

• Delta - Excitement and rapid change where barriers are overcome and previous restraints drop away. People take charge of their own destinies.

• New Alpha - The consolidation of the ideas and coping systems that emerged during the Delta state into new systems, paradigms, and arrangements.

73

First and Second Order of Change

First order change• Change occurs within a system which, itself

remains unchanged.• Horizontal change

• More of the same.

Second order change• Mega-system shift to new paradigms, new

assumptions, and new structures.• Vertical change

• Reframing

74

Assess the Organization for a MEME change

• Six conditions have to be met IF an individual or organization is to experience lasting change.

75

Required Conditions for Lasting Change

1. Potential for change must be present

2. Unresolved problems from a lower order must be addressed

3. Dissonance with the current MEME must be felt

4. Sufficient insight into the causes of the dissonance and awareness of alternative approaches to their resolution.

5. Specific barriers to change need to be identified and eliminated, bypassed, neutralized or reframed into something else.

6. If there is no culture of nurturing support during transformation, new MEMEs cannot bloom.• When significant change occurs,

expect confusion, false starts, long learning curves and awkward assimilation while consolidation of new thinking.

76

Systemic Change Requires…

• All infrastructures integrated, aligned and synergized; creating critical mass, including:• Economic policy• Educational policy• NGO activities• Environmental rules• Law enforcement action• Political gamesmanship• Community development• Churches and religion

• Connecting everything to everything else!

77

PURPLE Magical/Animistic

Appropriate source• Caring chieftain• Elders• From within

tribe/clan• From spirit realm• From word of

ancestors• Traditional ways

Message• Traditional rites, rituals• Includes mystical elements and

superstitions• Appeals to extended family,

harmony, and safety• Recognizes blood-bonds, the

folk, group• Familiar metaphors, drawings• Minimal reliance on written

language.

78

RED Impulsive/Egocentric

Appropriate source• Person with the

recognized power• Straight-talking boss• One with something to

offer• Respected (feared)

other• Proven tough entity

Message• Demonstrate “What’s in it for me

now?”• Offer “Immediate gratification if…”• Challenges and appeals to

machismo/strength• Heroic status and legendary potential• Flashy, to the point, unambiguous,

strong• Simple language and fiery

images/graphics.

79

BLUE Purposeful/Authoritarian

Appropriate source• Rightful, proper authority• Higher authority in the

Way• Down the chain-of-

command• According to the book’s

rules• Person with position

power• Revered Truth Keepers

Message• Duty, honor, country images of discipline• Self-sacrifice for higher causes• Appeal to traditions and established

norms• Use class-consciousness and knowing

one’s place• Propriety, righteousness and

responsibilities• Insure future rewards and delayed

gratification• Assuage guilt with correct consequences.

80

ORANGE Achievist/Strategic

Appropriate source• One’s own right-thinking

mind• Successful mentors and

models• Credible professionals• Prosperous elite contacts• Advantageous to the self• Based in proven experience

Message• Appeal to competitive

advantage and leverage• Success motivations and

achieving abundance• Bigger, better, newer, faster,

more popular• Citations of experts and

selected authorities• Profit, productivity, quality,

results, win• “Best of several options.”

81

GREEN Communitarian/Egalitarian

Appropriate source

• Consensual community norms

• Enlightened friend/colleague

• Outcome of participation

• Resultant of enlightenment

• Observation of events

• Participative decision

• Team’s collective findings

Message• Enhance belonging, sharing,

harmony of groups• Sensitive to human issues and

care for others• Expand awareness and

understanding of inner self• Symbols of equity, humanity

and bonding• Build trust, openness,

exploration, passages• Real people with authentic

emotional displays.

82

YELLOW Integrative

Appropriate source• Any information source• May adopt Beige through

Green• Relevant, more useful data• Merge hard sources and

hunches• Conscious and unconscious

mind• Disregards status or prestige

Message• Interactive, relevant media, self-

accessible• Functional ‘lean’ information

without fluff• The facts, the feelings and the

instincts• Big picture, total systems,

integrations• Connect data across fields for

holistic view• Adapt, mesh, blend, access, sense,

gather• Self-connecting to systems and

others usefully

83

TURQUOISE - Holistic

Appropriate source• Experience of discovery• Learning in communal

network• Holistic conception of reality• Any being in Turquoise• Systems across the planet• Resonance with First Tier

Message• Multi-dimensional chunks of

insight• Renewed spirituality and

sacrifice to whole• Ecological interdependency

and interconnections• Macro solutions to macro

problems• Community beyond

nationalities• High-tech, high-touch for

experiential knowing.

Annexe 3DESIGN ME A PLANETTEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST

TEN MACRO SCENARIOS FOR A LITTLE STAR DUST

SPEAKING WITH DIFFERENTS GROUPS I DISCOVER AFTER UNDREDS OF INTERVIEWSTHAT ………..

HOW PEOPLE IMAGINE THE FUTURE

WHITE

TURQUOISEYELLOWGREENORANGEBLUEREDPURPLEBEIGE

BLACK

DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES

DEPENDING OF THEIR BELIEVE SYSTEM AND VALUES

THEN WE FIND TEN MAINS FAMILY OF SCENARIOS FOR THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF THE PLANET

BLACK

End of mankind.

End of sun ( very long term but certain ).

Meteorite (any time but little probability on short term ).

Evolution trap ( high probability on the short term as we will see).

A scenario usual evocate by researcher and scientist.

This scenario is already happening for the more poor Environ 200 millions

BEIGE

Brake of the civilization and return to survival.

A scenario witch is already happening for the poorest in the suburb of big cities for environ 500 millions of person

A scenario witch could append for 2/3 of mankind in the context of climate change

A desperate planet who will be the first to move in the black scenario in case of famine

poor ≠ miser

PURPLE

Tribes of hunter gatherer, indigenous people with precious, sophisticate and very ancient culture environ 20 millions witch are in danger of destruction.How to conserve their precious insights and knowledge and their way of life

But also kind of néo tribs organize in mafia way of life in the suburb of big cities.

Purple future is difficult either they are assimilate by red and blue either they are push in beige and black suicide

They tempt to preserve them self and their myths and ancient believe system.

The purple planet is mainly in Africa, south america and oceania.

RED

The empire battle for territory and resources.The red planet is the most crowded with the blue one. They are connected because the red planet is use by the blue planet as warriors.The vision of the reds is a clash of civilization and a total war for access to resources and domination.

Ecological and sociological issues are for dreamers

Around 2-3 billions of people are in this way of acting and thinking “real politics”

BLUE

The battle for religion and legacy.The blue planet is the most crowded with the red one. They are connected because the red planet use blue planet as legitimization .The vision of the blue planet is a battle for religion and cultural dominants

Around 2-3 billions of people are living and thinking this way.They see the future as the domination of their religion over the planet .

They find their meaning and purpose trough the practice of their cultural tradition, they are family oriented, respect the law and they participate to debate and democracy process but only in the narrow context of their own specific culture. All others cultures appear enemies and devils.

The globalization witch seems first for them a way to develop their cultural dominants is now a treats because of the obligation to accept the relativity of each cultures in public international affairs. They tempt to return to their traditional territory and preserve their culture in any form of fundamentalism

ORANGE

Money and technology can solve any problem !Let’s make money with green development…….Orange behaviors rules the word because the extraordinary grow of economy through credit, energy, technology and population have make them the most rich and powerful group, even if they are only environ one billions.They are more cynics than any other previous sub-group and manipulate the others in the context of their money games and monopolization of the planetary resources.The actual problem it is that their power came from the fact they owns the credit facility and they need grows of the economy to caution credit.

They have been for years the solution they are now the problem because material grow is limited in a finish planet.They see future continuing business as usual with more or less pink and green to have fun !They confront mankind with a veritable evolution trap because their vision is not scientifically valid, effect of pollution are deleted enough to be ignored on a short base may be fatal for mankind to terms.

GREEN

Welcome in Bobo Land an the amazing beginning of the cultural creatives landscape !

Green is a nice planet ! So nice indeed !Green people are usually more educated young and rich than the average population.

They love exchange together thoughts and are open to any ideas, cultures, civilization who seem to them a interesting point of view.

Equality and participation of every body in the decision process are very important for them.They are human developer's psychologist, coach and work hard to their own transformation and development.They see the future as a nice dialogue between cultures on a base of equality and awareness of the relativity of each point view !

They have difficulty to take decision and make real action and get organized.They care for the planet but after their personal development !

YELLOW

The yellow people are process oriented and systemic thinkers.

They see the planet as a global system in evolution where each level of organization and way of thinking have his own place depending of the context.

The big gap with previous way of thinking is the positioning of economy as a subsystem of sociology and ecology and a formal critics of any form of reductionism.

The problem of Yellow is that they are very few and they are oblige to live in orange society base on reductionism and money leverage

Yellow people and turquoise people are the solution to the actual problem of the planet but they need to connect, get organize, propose politics and build together a new way to make society !

TURQUOISE

Turquoise open the systemic vision to a integral and holistic point of view.

The turquoise vision of the future is a integration and valorization of each cultures in a meta system of cultural global governance !

WHITE

Time and space are illusion

We are the one , only “one” is .

STRATIFIED DEMOCRACY

Annexe 3What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?

© Michel Saloff-Coste

How to manage the evolution from the diagnosis to the action plan

Michel Saloff-Coste

What strategies of the future and organizational transformation ?

© Michel Saloff-Coste

THE FOUR WAVES OFTHE CIVILIZATION

Hunting Gathering 3 000 000 years

Agriculture Breeding 30 000 years

Industry Commerce 300 years

Creation Communication ?

© Michel Saloff-Coste

Activity Tools Power Organization

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

NailsTeeth

ArmsLegs

SensesOrgans

BrainNerves

Osmosis withthe nature

Territory possession

Capitalavailability

Informationinnovation

MythsTribe

MonarchyKingdom

DemocracyState

FeelingsNetworks

THE EVOLUTION GRID

© Michel Saloff-Coste

THE EVOLUTION GRID

Activity Exchange Mentality Communication

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

Barter

CoinMoney

PaperMoney

InformationSwap

Animistinstinctive

Monotheistanalogical

Scientificreductionist

Systemiccomplex

OralPersonal

WrittenManuscript

Audio-visualMass-media

InteractiveComputers

© Michel Saloff-Coste

APPLICATION ATHE ORGANIZATIONS

EVOLUTION

Through the four vectors of change :

Culture

Management

Structure

Process

© Michel Saloff-Coste

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

Fusioninstinctive

Casteanalogical

Equalitylogic

Complexitycreative

ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION

Culture Management

To weld togetherTo fascinate

To build a hierarchy To impose

To adaptTo negotiate

To generateTo inspire

© Michel Saloff-Coste

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

InformalBand

Classicpyramid

Inversed pyramid

Interactivecells

ORGANISATIONS EVOLUTION

Structure Process

Recursiveclosed

FormalMechanistic

DeductiveReactive

InspiredProactive

© Michel Saloff-Coste

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

Client is an "objet"

Client is a"user"

Client is a«king»

Client is a"partner"

EXAMPLES

The "CLIENT" The HR ’s mission

Create an elite

Manage the promotion

The right man atthe right place

Everyone has his own project

© Michel Saloff-Coste

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

Fascination

Cooption

Selection

Symbiosis

Recruitment Evaluation

Osmosis

Fitting the norm

Professional skills

Personal growth

HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS

© Michel Saloff-Coste

HUMAN RESSOURCES SYSTEMS

Education Career Remuneration

HuntingGathering

AgricultureBreeding

IndustryCommerce

CreationCommunication

Apprenticeship

Fellowship

Specialization

Personalization

Devotion

Workingthe way up

Value

Potential

Adhesion

Caste

Professionalism

Uniqueness

© Michel Saloff-Coste

TWO QUESTIONS TO ANSWER

How to position your organization on the path to Creation-Communication ?

How to take your organization to Creation-Communication ?

© Michel Saloff-Coste

LEARNING THE TOOLS OF CHANGE

© Michel Saloff-Coste

The transition to the Creation-Communication age implies

the transformation :

of the organization

of the individuals

© Michel Saloff-Coste

FAMILIARIZATION :

The stages of learning

INITIATION :

DEVELOPMENT :

The basic concepts

The methodological tools

The potential of the individuals

The potential of the organization

© Michel Saloff-Coste

INDIVIDUALS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

TeachingHelp in mastering the methodology

of change in the professional activity

CoachingAnalysis of the progress and help

in using the tools over one year period

© Michel Saloff-Coste

ORGANIZATION  POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

Diagnosis

Weakness and strength evaluation of your organizationin Creation-Communication era

© Michel Saloff-Coste

DIRECTED ACTION

Advise the decision maker during the transformation process

Emphasize strong points and soften weak points

of your organization

STRATEGIC CELL

© Michel Saloff-Coste

ORGANIZATIONTRANSFORMATION

Change plan design

Key actors familiarization with IPD principles

Management culture evolution

Structures and process transformation

© Michel Saloff-Coste

REFERENCES

AFPA, APPLE, DGA, EDF MERLIN GERIN,

L'OREAL, FRANCE TELECOM,REEBOK, SONACOTRA,

BEL, PEUGEOT, SNECMA…

© Michel Saloff-Coste