energy sources of the future
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Sources Of The Future
Elisabeth Eaves 08.24.07, 6:00 AM ET
First the bad news: With oil prices rising and energy demandfrom emerging economies ballooning, no single energysource will emerge to replace fossil fuels.
The good news is that that's OK. Even if nothing ever rulesthe world like oil did last century, different regions will adapt by tapping the technologies and energy sources that suit them best.
"We'll really be looking at a tapestry…as opposed to thesilver bullet notion that one source will break through anddominate," says Barry Rabe, a professor of environmental policy at the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor.
In Pictures: Energy Sources of the Future
So just how will our grandchildren meet their energy needs?We'll continue to use oil and natural gas for decades, if notcenturies, but as a shrinking portion of our energy pie. We'llalso use commonly proposed alternatives like corn-based
ethanol and nuclear generators.
But there are also big changes ahead, both in terms of whatwe use and how much we use technologies that already exist.Take wind generation. The industry is growing at about 30%a year, says Edward Guinness, co-manager of the GuinnessAtkinson Alternative Energy Fund. That's faster than other renewable energy sources like solar and hydro-power. The price of wind-generated energy is currently competitive withfossil fuels, Guinness says.
Solar power is also poised to grow quickly. Today about0.1% of the world's energy comes from solar power, most of it using photovoltaic cells. Guinness thinks that could grow to10% over 20 to 35 years as manufacturing processes areimproved. The expansion of solar thermal technology willalso grow the sector (see: The Sunshine Economy).
Government subsidies, favorable regulatory programs and the popularity of solar withconsumers are also likely to boost usage.
The Solar EconomyProfiles: Applied Materials Nevada Solar OneKyoceraConergy AGTech: Beyond SiliconEfficient Solar CellsIn Pictures: StunningSolar HomesMap: The Solar Universe
In Pictures: EnergySources of the Future
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Newer ideas could also turn into future energy sources. Have you ever thought we might
harness the power of bending floorboards, or turn algae into fuel? It could happen.
Moreover, the future of energy is not just a question of what, but of how.
"I think the things that would really blow us away if we could jump forward 20 yearswould not be the giant fields of windmills, but the 1,000 changes in daily life that havetaken place in order to save energy," says Alex Steffen, executive editor of Worldchanging.com, which covers sustainable technology.
Those changes will go far beyond switching to low-energy light bulbs. One trend Steffenforecasts is that power sources will move closer to home. "I think we're going to see a lot
more local energy, especially in places that are gifted with lots of sunshine, or wind, or strong rivers," Steffen says. As houses and small communities produce their own energy,it will flow back and forth on "smart infrastructure"-- two-way power grids that deliver from as well as to the home.
Take hydro-power, for instance. "If we're going to see new hydro development in NorthAmerica, it wont necessarily be massive like the Hoover Dam, but micro-hydro," Rabesays. Places still unconnected to large-scale energy grids, like sub-Saharan Africa, areespecially poised to take advantage of local-level options.
The future just might be bright after all. By the time the world's oil reserves do dry up, it's
technologically possible that we will have weaned ourselves off of fossil fuels.
In Pictures: Energy Sources of the Future
© Comstock
Wind
The wind generation industry is growing at about 30% a year, says Edward Guinness, co-manager of the Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund. That's faster than other renewable energy
sources like solar and hydro-power. The price of wind-generated energy is currently competitivewith fossil fuels, Guinness says.
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Energy development is the effort to provide sufficient primary energy sources andsecondary energy forms for supply, cost, impact on air pollution and water pollution,mitigation of climate change with renewable energy.
Technologically advanced societies have become increasingly dependent on external
energy sources for transportation, the production of many manufactured goods, and thedelivery of energy services. This energy allows people who can afford the cost to liveunder otherwise unfavorable climatic conditions through the use of heating, ventilation,and/or air conditioning. Level of use of external energy sources differs across societies,as do the climate, convenience, levels of traffic congestion, pollution and availability of domestic energy sources.
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[ edit ] Renewable sources
Main articles: Renewable energy and Renewable energy commercialization
The wind, Sun, and biomass are three renewable energy sources
Renewable energy is energy which comes from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally replenished.) Renewableenergy is an alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear power, and was commonly calledalternative energy in the 1970s and 1980s. In 2008, about 19% of global final energyconsumption came from renewables, with 13% coming from traditional biomass, whichis mainly used for heating, and 3.2% from hydroelectricity.[1] New renewables (smallhydro, modern biomass, wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels) accounted for another
2.7% and are growing very rapidly.
[1]
The share of renewables in electricity generation isaround 18%, with 15% of global electricity coming from hydroelectricity and 3% fromnew renewables.[1][2]
Wind power is growing at the rate of 30% annually, with a worldwide installed capacity of 158 gigawatts (GW) in 2009,[3][4] and is widely used in Europe, Asia, and the UnitedStates.[5] At the end of 2009, cumulative global photovoltaic (PV) installations surpassed21 GW[6][7][8] and PV power stations are popular in Germany and Spain.[9] Solar thermal power stations operate in the USA and Spain, and the largest of these is the 354 megawatt (MW) SEGS power plant in the Mojave Desert.[10] The world's largest geothermal power installation is The Geysers in California, with a rated capacity of 750 MW. Brazil has oneof the largest renewable energy programs in the world, involving production of ethanolfuel from sugar cane, and ethanol now provides 18% of the country's automotive fuel.[11]
Ethanol fuel is also widely available in the USA.
Climate change concerns, coupled with high oil prices, peak oil, and increasinggovernment support, are driving increasing renewable energy legislation, incentives andcommercialization.[12] New government spending, regulation and policies helped theindustry weather the global financial crisis better than many other sectors.[13] Scientists
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have advanced a plan to power 100% of the world's energy with wind, hydroelectric, andsolar power by the year 2030,[14][15] recommending renewable energy subsidies and a priceon carbon reflecting its cost for flood and related expenses.
While many renewable energy projects are large-scale, renewable technologies are also
suited to rural and remote areas, where energy is often crucial in human development.[16]
Globally, an estimated 3 million households get power from small solar PV systems.Micro-hydro systems configured into village-scale or county-scale mini-grids serve manyareas.[17] More than 30 million rural households get lighting and cooking from biogas made in household-scale digesters. Biomass cookstoves are used by 160 millionhouseholds.[17]
[edit] Wind
See also: Wind power , List of onshore wind farms, and List of offshore wind farms
Wind power: worldwide installed capacity
[18]
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. Theseturbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Wind towers are usually built together on wind farms. Wind power is growing at the rate of 30% annually, with aworldwide installed capacity of 158 gigawatts (GW) in 2009,[3][4] and is widely used inEurope, Asia, and the United States.[5]
At the end of 2010, worldwide nameplate capacity of wind-powered generators was 197gigawatts (GW).[19] Energy production was 430 TWh, which is about 2.5% of worldwideelectricity usage.[19][20] Several countries have achieved relatively high levels of wind power penetration, such as 21% of stationary electricity production in Denmark ,[19] 18%in Portugal,[19] 16% in Spain,[19] 14% in Ireland[21] and 9% in Germany in 2010.[19][22] As of 2011, 83 countries around the world are using wind power on a commercial basis.[22]
[edit] Hydroelectric
The Gordon Dam in Tasmania is a large conventional dammed-hydro facility, with aninstalled capacity of up to 430 MW.Main article: Hydroelectricity
In hydro energy, the gravitational descent of a river is compressed from a long run to asingle location with a dam or a flume. This creates a location where concentrated pressure and flow can be used to turn turbines or water wheels, which drive a mechanicalmill or an electric generator .[23]
In some cases with hydroelectric dams, there are unexpected results. One study showsthat a hydroelectric dam in the Amazon has 3.6 times larger greenhouse effect per kW•hthan electricity production from oil, due to large scale emission of methane fromdecaying organic material[24], though this is most significant as river valleys are initially
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flooded, and are of much less consequence for more boreal dams.[25] This effect applies in particular to dams created by simply flooding a large area, without first clearing it of vegetation. There are however investigations into underwater turbines that do not requirea dam. And pumped-storage hydroelectricity can use water reservoirs at differentaltitudes to store wind and solar power.
[edit] Solar
Nellis Solar Power Plant, the third largest photovoltaic power plant in North America.Main articles: Solar energy and Photovoltaics
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlighthitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air, using sunlight hittinga parabolic mirror to heat water (producing steam), or using sunlight entering windowsfor passive solar heating of a building. It would be advantageous to place solar panels in
the regions of highest solar radiation.
[26]
At the end of 2009, cumulative global photovoltaic (PV) installations surpassed 21 GW[6]
[7][8] and PV power stations are popular in Germany and Spain.[9] Solar thermal power stations operate in the USA and Spain, and the largest of these is the 354 megawatt (MW)SEGS power plant in the Mojave Desert.[10]
China is increasing worldwide silicon wafer capacity for photovoltaics to 2,000 metrictons by July 2008, and over 6,000 metric tons by the end of 2010.[27] Significantinternational investment capital is flowing into China to support this opportunity. Chinais building large subsidized off-the-grid solar-powered cities in Huangbaiyu and DongtanEco City. Much of the design was done by Americans such as William McDonough.[28]
[edit] Agricultural biomass
Sugar cane residue can be used as a biofuel
Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, the methane produced is captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation andwood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to formalcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs in the world, involving production of ethanol fuel from sugar cane, and ethanol now provides 18% of thecountry's automotive fuel.[11] Ethanol fuel is also widely available in the USA.
Vegetable oil is generated from sunlight, H2O, and CO2 by plants. It is safer to use andstore than gasoline or diesel as it has a higher flash point. Straight vegetable oil works indiesel engines if it is heated first. Vegetable oil can also be transesterified to make biodiesel, which burns like normal diesel.
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[edit] Geothermal
Main article: Geothermal power
Geothermal energy harnesses the heat energy present underneath the Earth. Two wellsare drilled. One well injects water into the ground to provide water. The hot rocks heatthe water to produce steam. The steam that shoots back up the other hole(s) is purifiedand is used to drive turbines, which power electric generators. When the water temperature is below the boiling point of water a binary system is used. A low boiling point liquid is used to drive a turbine and generator in a closed system similar to arefrigeration unit running in reverse. There are also natural sources of geothermal energy:some can come from volcanoes, geysers, hot springs, and steam vents. [29] The world'slargest geothermal power installation is The Geysers in California, with a rated capacity
of 750 MW.
[edit] Tidal
Main article: Tidal power
Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current, or by building impoundment pond dams that admit-or-releasewater through a turbine. The turbine can turn an electrical generator , or a gas compressor , that can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free,renewable, and sustainable energy.[30]
[ edit ] Fossil fuels
The Moss Landing Power Plant burns natural gas to produce electricity in California.Main articles: Fossil fuel and Peak oil
Fossil fuels sources burn coal or hydrocarbon fuels, which are the remains of thedecomposition of plants and animals. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Another fossil fuel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), is principally derived from the production of natural gas. Heat from burning fossil fuel isused either directly for space heating and process heating, or converted to mechanical
energy for vehicles, industrial processes, or electrical power generation.
Greenhouse gas emissions result from fossil fuel-based electricity generation. Currentlygovernments subsidize fossil fuels by an estimated $500 billion a year .[31]
[ edit ] Nuclear
Main articles: Nuclear power and Peak uranium
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[edit] Fission
Diablo Canyon Power Plant Nuclear power station.
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission to generate energy by the reaction of uranium-235 inside a nuclear reactor . The reactor uses uranium rods, the atoms of which are splitin the process of fission, releasing a large amount of energy. The process continues as achain reaction with other nuclei. The energy heats water to create steam, which spins aturbine generator, producing electricity.
Depending on the type of fission fuel considered, estimates for existing supply at knownusage rates varies from several decades for the currently popular Uranium-235 tothousands of years for uranium-238. At the present rate of use, there are (as of 2007)about 70 years left of known uranium-235 reserves economically recoverable at auranium price of US$ 130/kg.[32] The nuclear industry argue that the cost of fuel is a
minor cost factor for fission power, more expensive, more difficult to extract sources of uranium could be used in the future, such as lower-grade ores, and if prices increasedenough, from sources such as granite and seawater.[32] Increasing the price of uraniumwould have little effect on the overall cost of nuclear power; a doubling in the cost of natural uranium would increase the total cost of nuclear power by 5 percent. On the other hand, if the price of natural gas was doubled, the cost of gas-fired power would increase by about 60 percent.[33]
Opponents on the other hand argue that the correlation between price and production isnot linear, but as the ores' concentration becomes smaller, the difficulty (energy andresource consumption are increasing, while the yields are decreasing) of extraction risesvery fast, and that the assertion that a higher price will yield more uranium is overlyoptimistic; for example a rough estimate predicts that the extraction of uranium fromgranite will consume at least 70 times more energy than what it will produce in a reactor.As many as eleven countries have depleted their uranium resources, and only Canada hasmines left that produce better than 1% concentration ore.[34] Seawater seems to be equallydubious as a source.[35]
Nuclear meltdowns and other reactor accidents, such as the Fukushima I nuclear accident (2011), Three Mile Island accident (1979) and the Chernobyl disaster (1986), havecaused much public concern. Research is being done to lessen the known problems of current reactor technology by developing automated and passively safe reactors.Historically, however, coal and hydropower power generation have both been the causeof more deaths per energy unit produced than nuclear power generation.[36][37]
Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear technology which may happen from nationto nation or through other black market channels, including nuclear power plants andrelated technology including nuclear weapons.
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The long-term radioactive waste storage problems of nuclear power have not beensolved. Several countries have considered using underground repositories. Nuclear wastetakes up little space compared to wastes from the chemical industry which remain toxicindefinitely.[38] Spent fuel rods are now stored in concrete casks close to the nuclear reactors.[39] The amounts of waste could be reduced in several ways. Both nuclear
reprocessing and breeder reactors could reduce the amounts of waste. Subcritical reactors or fusion reactors could greatly reduce the time the waste has to be stored.[40] Subcriticalreactors may also be able to do the same to already existing waste. The only long-termway of dealing with waste today is by geological storage.
At present, nuclear energy is in decline, according to a 2007 World Nuclear IndustryStatus Report presented by the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament. The reportoutlines that the proportion of nuclear energy in power production has decreased in 21out of 31 countries, with five fewer functioning nuclear reactors than five years ago.There are currently 32 nuclear power plants under construction or in the pipeline, 20fewer than at the end of the 1990s.[41][42]
Thorium can be used as fuel in a nuclear reactor . A thorium fuel cycle offers several potential advantages over a uranium fuel cycle including much greater abundance onEarth, superior physical and nuclear properties of the fuel, enhanced proliferation resistance, and reduced nuclear waste production. Nobel laureate Carlo Rubbia at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), has worked on developing the use of thorium as an alternative to uranium in reactors. Rubbia states that a tonne of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tonnes of uranium, or 3,500,000 tonnes of coal.[43] One of the early pioneers of the technology was U.S. physicist Alvin Weinberg at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, who helped develop a working nuclear plant usingliquid fuel in the 1960s.
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[edit] Fusion
Fusion power could solve many of the problems of fission power (the technologymentioned above) but, despite research having started in the 1950s, no commercial fusionreactor is expected before 2050.[44] Many technical problems remain unsolved. Proposedfusion reactors commonly use deuterium, an isotope of hydrogen, as fuel and in most
current designs also lithium. Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current globaloutput and that this does not increase in the future, then the known current lithiumreserves would last 3000 years, lithium from sea water would last 60 million years, and amore complicated fusion process using only deuterium from sea water would have fuelfor 150 billion years.[45]
[ edit ] Cost by source
Further information: Cost of electricity by source
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The following chart does not include the external, weather-related costs of using fossilfuels.
Large energy subsidies are present in many countries (Barker et al., 2001:567-568).[46]
Currently governments subsidize fossil fuels by $557 billion per year.[31][47] Economic
theory indicates that the optimal policy would be to remove coal mining and burningsubsidies and replace them with optimal taxes. Global studies indicate that even withoutintroducing taxes, subsidy and trade barrier removal at a sectoral level would improveefficiency and reduce environmental damage. Removal of these subsidies wouldsubstantially reduce GHG emissions and stimulate economic growth.
[ edit ] Increased energy efficiency
This section does not cite any references or sources. Please help improve thissection by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may bechallenged and removed. (April 2008)
Energy efficiency is increasing by about 2% a year [citation needed ], and absorbs most of therequirements for energy development. New technology makes better use of alreadyavailable energy through improved efficiency, such as more efficient fluorescent lamps,engines, and insulation. Using heat exchangers, it is possible to recover some of theenergy in waste warm water and air, for example to preheat incoming fresh water.Hydrocarbon fuel production from pyrolysis could also be in this category, allowingrecovery of some of the energy in hydrocarbon waste. Already existing power plantsoften can and usually are made more efficient with minor modifications due to newtechnology. New power plants may become more efficient with technology likecogeneration. New designs for buildings may incorporate techniques like passive solar .Light-emitting diodes are gradually replacing the remaining uses of light bulbs. Note that
none of these methods allows perpetual motion, as some energy is always lost to heat.
Mass transportation increases energy efficiency compared to widespread conventionalautomobile use while air travel is regarded as inefficient. Conventional combustionengine automobiles have continually improved their efficiency and may continue to do soin the future, for example by reducing weight with new materials. Hybrid vehicles cansave energy by allowing the engine to run more efficiently, regaining energy from braking, turning off the motor when idling in traffic, etc. More efficient ceramic or dieselengines can improve mileage. Electric vehicles such as Maglev, trolleybuses, and PHEVs are more efficient during use (but maybe not if doing a life cycle analysis) than similar current combustion based vehicles, reducing their energy consumption during use by 1/2
to 1/4. Microcars or motorcycles may replace automobiles carrying only one or two people. Transportation efficiency may also be improved by in other ways, see automatedhighway system.
Electricity distribution may change in the future. New small scale energy sources may be placed closer to the consumers so that less energy is lost during electricity distribution. New technology like superconductivity or improved power factor correction may alsodecrease the energy lost. Distributed generation permits electricity "consumers," who are
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generating electricity for their own needs, to send their surplus electrical power back intothe power grid.
[ edit ] Transmission
An elevated section of the Alaska Pipeline.See also: Pipeline transport
While new sources of energy are only rarely discovered or made possible by newtechnology, distribution technology continually evolves.[48] The use of fuel cells in cars,for example, is an anticipated delivery technology.[citation needed ] This section presents someof the more common delivery technologies that have been important to historic energydevelopment. They all rely in some way on the energy sources listed in the previoussection.
[edit] Water Further information: Water cycle and Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
This section requires expansion.
[edit] Fossil fuels
Shipping is a flexible delivery technology that is used in the whole range of energydevelopment regimes from primitive to highly advanced. Currently, coal, petroleum andtheir derivatives are delivered by shipping via boat, rail, or road. Petroleum and naturalgas may also be delivered via pipeline and coal via a Slurry pipeline. Refinedhydrocarbon fuels such as gasoline and LPG may also be delivered via aircraft. Natural
gas pipelines must maintain a certain minimum pressure to function correctly. Ethanol'scorrosive properties make it harder to build ethanol pipelines. The higher costs of ethanoltransportation and storage are often prohibitive.[49]
[edit] Electricity
Electric Grid: Pilons and cables distribute power
Electricity grids are the networks used to transmit and distribute power from productionsource to end user, when the two may be hundreds of kilometres away. Sources include
electrical generation plants such as a nuclear reactor , coal burning power plant, etc. Acombination of sub-stations, transformers, towers, cables, and piping are used to maintaina constant flow of electricity. Grids may suffer from transient blackouts and brownouts, often due to weather damage. During certain extreme space weather events solar wind can interfere with transmissions. Grids also have a predefined carrying capacity or loadthat cannot safely be exceeded. When power requirements exceed what's available,failures are inevitable. To prevent problems, power is then rationed.
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Industrialised countries such as Canada, the US, and Australia are among the highest per capita consumers of electricity in the world, which is possible thanks to a widespreadelectrical distribution network. The US grid is one of the most advanced, althoughinfrastructure maintenance is becoming a problem. CurrentEnergy provides a realtimeoverview of the electricity supply and demand for California, Texas, and the Northeast of
the US. African countries with small scale electrical grids have a correspondingly lowannual per capita usage of electricity. One of the most powerful power grids in the worldsupplies power to the state of Queensland, Australia.
[ edit ] Storage
Main articles: Energy storage and grid energy storage
Methods of energy storage have been developed, which transform electrical energy intoforms of potential energy. A method of energy storage may be chosen on the basis of stability, ease of transport, ease of energy release, or ease of converting free energy fromthe natural form to the stable form.
[edit] Chemical
Some natural forms of energy are found in stable chemical compounds such as fossilfuels. Most systems of chemical energy storage result from biological activity, whichstore energy in chemical bonds. Man-made forms of chemical energy storage includehydrogen fuel, synthetic hydrocarbon fuel, batteries and explosives such as cordite anddynamite.
[edit] Gravitational and hydroelectric
Dams can be used to store energy, by using pumped-storage hydroelectricity, excessenergy to pump water into the reservoir. When electrical energy is required, the process isreversed. The water then turns a turbine, generating electricity. Hydroelectric power iscurrently an important part of the world's energy supply, generating one-fifth of theworld's electricity.[50]
[edit] Thermal
There are several technologies to store heat. Thermal energy from the sun, for example,can be stored in a reservoir or in the ground for daily or seasonal use. Thermal energy for cooling can be stored in ice.[51] Many thermal power plants are set up near coal or oil
fields. The thermal power plant is used since fuel is burnt to produce heat energy, whichis converted into electrical energy .[51]
[edit] Mechanical pressure
Energy may also be stored in pressurized gases or alternatively in a vacuum. Compressedair, for example, may be used to operate vehicles and power tools. Large-scalecompressed air energy storage facilities are used to smooth out demands on electricity
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generation by providing energy during peak hours and storing energy during off-peak hours. Such systems save on expensive generating capacity since it only needs to meetaverage consumption rather than peak consumption.[52]
[edit] Electrical capacitance
Electrical energy may be stored in capacitors. Capacitors are often used to produce highintensity releases of energy (such as a camera's flash).
[edit] Hydrogen
Main article: Hydrogen economy
Hydrogen can be manufactured at roughly 77 percent thermal efficiency by the method of steam reforming of natural gas.[53] When manufactured by this method it is a derivativefuel like gasoline; when produced by electrolysis of water, it is a form of chemical energystorage as are storage batteries, though hydrogen is the more versatile storage mode since
there are two options for its conversion to useful work: (1) a fuel cell can convert thechemicals hydrogen and oxygen into water, and in the process, produce electricity, or (2)hydrogen can be burned (less efficiently than in a fuel cell) in an internal combustionengine.
[edit] Vehicles
Energy flow in the U.S., 2008
[edit] Fossil fuels
Petroleum, coal and natural gas are used to power most transportation and buildings.
[edit] Batteries
Main articles: battery, battery electric vehicle
Batteries are used to store energy in a chemical form. As an alternative energy, batteriescan be used to store energy in battery electric vehicles. Battery electric vehicles can becharged from the grid when the vehicle is not in use. Because the energy is derived fromelectricity, battery electric vehicles make it possible to use other forms of alternative
energy such as wind, solar , geothermal, nuclear , or hydroelectric.
[edit] Compressed air
Main articles: Compressed air vehicle, Air car
The Indian company, Tata, is planning to release a compressed air powered car in 2008.
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[ edit ] Sustainability
See also: Climate change mitigation and Carbon pricing
Energy consumption from 1989 to 1999
The environmental movement emphasizes sustainability of energy use and development.Renewable energy is sustainable in its production; the available supply will not bediminished for the foreseeable future - millions or billions of years. "Sustainability" alsorefers to the ability of the environment to cope with waste products, especially air pollution. Sources which have no direct waste products (such as wind, solar, andhydropower) are seen as ideal in this regard.
Fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas are not renewable. For example, thetiming of worldwide peak oil production is being actively debated but it has alreadyhappened in some countries. Fossil fuels also make up the bulk of the world's current
primary energy sources. With global demand for energy growing, the need to adoptalternative energy sources is also growing. Fossil fuels are also a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, leading to concerns about global warming if consumption isnot reduced.
Energy conservation is an alternative or complementary process to energy development.It reduces the demand for energy by using it more efficiently.
[ edit ] Resilience
Energy consumption per capita (2001). Red hues indicate increase, green hues decreaseof consumption during the 1990s.
Some observers contend that the much talked about idea of “energy independence” is anunrealistic and opaque concept. They offer “energy resilience” as a more sensible goaland more aligned with economic, security and energy realities. The notion of resilience inenergy was detailed in the 1982 book Brittle Power : Energy Strategy for NationalSecurity.[54] The authors argued that simply switching to domestic energy would be nomore secure inherently because the true weakness is the interdependent and vulnerableenergy infrastructure of the United States. Key aspects such as gas lines and the electrical power grid are centralized and easily susceptible to major disruption. They conclude thata “resilient energy supply” is necessary for both national security and the environment.They recommend a focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy that is moredecentralized.[55]
More recently former Intel Corporation Chairman and CEO Andrew Grove has toutedenergy resilience, arguing that complete independence is infeasible given the globalmarket for energy.[56] He describes energy resilience as the ability to adjust tointerruptions in the supply of energy. To this end he suggests the U.S. make greater use
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of electricity.[57] Electricity can be produced from a variety of sources. A diverse energysupply will be less impacted by the disruption in supply of any one source. He reasonsthat another feature of electrification is that electricity is “sticky” – meaning theelectricity produced in the U.S. is more likely to stay there because it cannot betransported overseas. According to Grove, a key aspect of advancing electrification and
energy resilience will be converting the U.S. automotive fleet from gasoline-powered toelectric-powered. This, in turn, will require the modernization and expansion of theelectrical power grid. As organizations such as the Reform Institute have pointed out,advancements associated with the developing smart grid would facilitate the ability of thegrid to absorb vehicles en masse connecting to it to charge their batteries. [58]
[ edit ] Future
World Primary Energy Outlook by EIA (as of 2011-06)
An increasing share of world energy consumption is predicted to be used by developing
nations. Source: EIA.
Extrapolations from current knowledge to the future offer a choice of energy futures.[59]
Some predictions parallel the Malthusian catastrophe hypothesis. Numerous are complexmodels based scenarios as pioneered by Limits to Growth. Modeling approaches offer ways to analyze diverse strategies, and hopefully find a road to rapid and sustainabledevelopment of humanity. Short term energy crises are also a concern of energydevelopment. Some extrapolations lack plausibility, particularly when they predict acontinual increase in oil consumption.
Energy production usually requires an energy investment. Drilling for oil or building a
wind power plant requires energy. The fossil fuel resources (see above) that are left areoften increasingly difficult to extract and convert. They may thus require increasinglyhigher energy investments. If the investment is greater than the energy produced, then thefossil resource is no longer an energy source. This means that a large part of the fossilfuel resources and especially the non-conventional ones cannot be used for energy production today. Such resources may still be exploited economically in order to produceraw materials for plastics, fertilizers or even transportation fuel but now more energy isconsumed than produced. (They then become similar to ordinary mining reserves,economically recoverable but not net positive energy sources.) New technology mayameliorate this problem if it can lower the energy investment required to extract andconvert the resources, although ultimately basic physics sets limits that cannot be
exceeded.
Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around theglobe, world grain production increased by 250%. The energy for the Green Revolutionwas provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), andhydrocarbon fueled irrigation.[60] The peaking of world hydrocarbon production ( peak oil)may lead to significant changes, and require sustainable methods of production.[61]