Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEEAdjunct Professor, Florida Tech1/28/2010, Rev. 1.4fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377my.fit.edu/~fleslie27 The Future of Energy 2010Crude Oil NYMEX: $74 on 1/27/10$102 on 9/29/2008$90 Low on 9/15/08$147 High on 7/11/08$65.71 on 4/25/07CNNMoney.com

IntroductionSustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sunSustainable implies not using energy faster than the energy can be replenishedIn a broader sense, sustainability is not using all our resources, but leaving something for future generationsSince fossil fuels represent millions of years of stored sunlight, they are depleting and not sustainableFuture predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends and assumptions (how much are they wrong?)The future is ill-defined!100125

Does Energy Affect our Lives? Are they having fun?

Why did this happen?FOXnews 8/15/2003Happy New Yorkers out for a Stroll!080820

1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over!Hubberts Peak indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak might be 2007-9Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensiveVolatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing erratically in the long term!Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trendHydrogen will be made from natural gas first, then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun --- a matter of cost100127

1. Overview of Energy SourcesCurrently, energy primarily comes from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energyElectricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not primary sources!In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a fewEnergy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over these resourcesLack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation080820

1.1.1 Energy Source Categories080805AlternativeCoalOilGasNuclear FissionConventionalRenewable

Non renewable

1.1.2 Energy Source CategoriesWoodHydroHuman/AnimalWind Water Pumping080805AlternativeCoalOilGasNuclear FissionConventionalRenewable

Non renewable

1.1.3 Energy Source CategoriesWoodHydroHuman/AnimalWind Water Pumping080805GeothermalOil Shale, CTLTar SandsMethane HydratesAlternativeCoalOilGasNuclear FissionConventionalRenewable

Non renewable

1.1.4 Energy Source Categories080820Sustainable means using less than is renewed; if water is withdrawn from a dam faster than it is refilled, the level drops and hydro power is lessened, and finally fails

1.1.5 Energy Sources (2006)http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html080825

https://publicaffairs.llnl.govA Hydrogen Economy in 2050?

1.2 Fossil FuelsLong-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be eventually depleted, while renewable energy is sustainable indefinitelyAs easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 12,000 feet?Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total price of it and whats made with it080813

1.2.1 Energy Dependence upon Foreign CountriesOur dependency on cheap oil has lead to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers(US dependency on cheap drugs has lead to a slavish relationship with the drug dealers)So do we need a 12-step way to free us from our oil addiction?080907Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? --- OR ---Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?

1.2.2 US Crude Oil Sources (2008)US demands 19.9 million bbl petroleum/day but produces 5 million crude; 9.8 million bbl crude/day is importedSome crude is exported, refined elsewhere, and imported as gasoline since the US is short refinery capacityStill, how to economically justify building a 40-year life refinery for 20-year depleting oil?The offshore continental shelf (OSC) plus western lands might add 3 million barrels per day, but that wouldnt drive the price much lower100125

1.2.3 US Energy Imports --- 9/2008 or soCrude oil, for example; 11 million barrel/day (Mbd)Canada 1.883 MbdSaudi Arabia 1.479 Mbd (9.45 Mbd total)Mexico 1.124 MbdVenezuela 1.085 MbdNigeria 0.946 MbdIraq 0.693 MbdAnd Angola, Brazil, Algeria, Russia, Kuwait, Ecuador, Columbia, Chad, LibyaThe NE US also imports electricity and natural gas from Canada100125Photo: www.tesc.edu http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

1.3 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel DeclineDr. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, predicted in 1956 that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21st Century.Past the production peak at 2006-2011 (?), oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up. www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm080813

1.3.1 US Oil Production Peaks!080805

1.3.2 Some World Oil Production Peaks!080813See The Oil Drum for more

1.3.2 Oil Peak www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdf www.oecd.org/ may help100127

1.3.4 Constant Dollar Energy (2008)www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.html

1.4 But Wait! Theres More!We could break away from conventional fuels to use renewable energy (RE)Wind, solar, hydro, ocean tides, currents and waves, geothermalMost/much oil is consumed in transportation; efficiency neededThe eventual energy changeover will be based more upon relative price as fossil fuels become more expensive compared to the price of renewablesRE energies are diffuse compared to fossil fuels, so collection requires a large area converterFossil fuels have been so cheap that any tending towards normal is alleged to be price-gouging, and people demand that the government hold prices down08097

2. Energy DemandThe World produces about 85.4 M bbl/day, but uses about 85.7 million barrels petroleum per day (crude oil + liquids); working on storageThe US uses about 20.7 million barrels of petroleum per day while producing 8.3 million barrels per dayOPEC produces 32.7 Mbd, ~40% of World demandMajor oil pipeline through Country of Georgia100127

2.1 Supply & Demand EffectsCrude oil trades on a world marketElectronic trading permits 24-hour tradingIf the demand exceeds or approaches the supply, prices increase indefinitelyThe US doesnt affect the market price as much as world events that threaten the oil supply Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, war threats, closing the Strait of Hormuz, bombings and deaths, hurricanes, etcChina and India are increasing their demands for oil, buying from the same suppliers that we use and competing with us on price080907

2.1.1 Hurricane Katrina & PetroenergyThe heart of US oil production and refineries was struck by Katrina; lost 25% productionProduction had been shut down to prevent losses and to allow the workers to leave; lost some offshore Gulf rigsPipelines were shut down in case of storm damageGasoline shortages occurred throughout the SoutheastThis shortage lasted several months, but eventual fossil fuel depletion will cause lasting problems and high pricesPhoto from NOAA080820http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html

2.1 US Energy Usagewww.eia.doe.gov

2.2 Energy Information Sources and BeliefsInformation sources should be skeptically analyzed Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do they really want? Whats their agenda?Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for good health, but they really want no animals killed for foodPETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so that real chickens wont be killed

Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant dataNonconforming info is disregarded or modified to make it right as it doesnt match their long-held dogmaThey take surveys of their members (~

2.2.1 How Much Information Trust is Demanded?Is the information available to us accurate and complete?How does the information provider make money?Does their existence depends upon public hysteria?Does the cash flow diminish if the truth is told?When polio was conquered, March of Dimes switched to another childhood disease to support the organizations staffUS Energy Information Agency is a USA official sourceDetailed info considered and publishedDelayed about 1-3 years sometimes, unfortunatelyCommercial industry sourcesPlattsAmerican Wind Energy Association, SEIA, & ASES are trade/advocacy groups080820

2.3 The Bountiful LifeWe have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energyMicrowave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range eyes, yet they were developed just to save timeMultiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family membersVehicles enable greater urban sprawlLiving farther away from work requires more energy-consuming travel (and money) to get thereWhy should a business be located downtown?A clean industry like Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby080820

2.3.1 Conspicuous ConsumptionSome objects are more for show than utilityV-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads12,000 square foot homesExpensive imported foods; 1500-mile saladLong-distance air travel for an hour meetingBusiness meetings at golf & ski resorts

Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowskis wife$56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our highwaysPotential for a stylish new model with welded, inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right) Driven to an Oregon renewable energy fair by an RE fan!Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldnt they be allowed to buy it?080805http://www.unimog.net/

3. Energy ConsiderationsSustainabilityGlobal WarmingEnergy ConservationEnergy EfficiencyEnergy Plans080815

3.1 SustainabilityUsing less energy than available so as to not deprive our children & grandchildrenNow hear sustainability applied to National debtSun provides solar energy until sun fades outOr goes supernovaLunar power comes from moon and a lesser amount from the sun (tides)Geothermal energy comes from the accretion (meteoroids and dust) of the mass of the earth long ago plus radioactive decayFossil fuels arent being created nearly as fast as we use them --- perhaps one-millionth of use, so unsustainable usage100125

3.1.1 SustainabilityTruly renewable energy is replaced by the sun Nonrenewable energy isnt replaced at the rate that we use it; coal, oil, or uranium oxideCreation of coal requires ~ a million yearsWaste is something we havent yet found a way to recycleHydroelectricity is sustainable as long as we dont take too much from the reservoir The sun heats water, which drops as rain, recharging the streams and rivers until the sun grows cold080815

3.2 Global WarmingLong-term change in climate temperature appears caused by human burning of fossil fuels that emit CO2Science is claimed to be absolute on both sides of the argument! Lots of data uncertainty and mostly politics in debates. Most agree with climate change, some dontIgnore that debate, and focus on moving to renewable energy over some 30 to 50 years, reducing waste, and increasing efficiencyThat will reduce CO2 and decrease global warming100125

3.2.1 Global Warming EffectsCarbon dioxide continues to rise to 370 ppm, and a value of some 320 to 350 ppm is considered crucial to limiting global (thats worldwide) warmingMelting of land-supported ice would raise sea level and affect coastal populations; water-supported ice doesnt raise levelMelting of polar ice would increase solar heat absorption since the sea is darker than iceThe Age of Industry added combustion gases where chiefly forest fires contributed previously100125

3.3 Energy ConservationConservation refers to avoiding energy use Turn off unneeded lights without delay Dont use always-on outside lights; use photocell or better, motion detector controls Test for air conditioning attic duct leaks Use extra insulation in walls and attic Use a radiant barrier inside roof Use white shingles; never black or green! Do several errands on one driving trip to save gasoline080820

3.3.1 Energy EfficiencyEfficiency means using energy better Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) use one-quarter the power of incandescent lamps (Edison development) So easy to do, like checking tire pressures! Wall knot transformers/chargers are being designed to be more efficient; often plugged in all the time Air conditioning/heat pump could use ground source water temperature as a sink or source Conversely, air conditioner refrigeration could dump heat into incoming water to a water heater; both work more efficiently080922

3.3.2 Green BuildingsBuildings use a large amount of energy to offset energy loss through the envelopeWindows, walls, ceiling, floors, and doorsAir lock doors reduce heat loss as people passLighting, motors, and bodies provide internal heat that must be removed in summer but is useful heat in the winterWhen water is heated by the sun, it avoids the consumption of electricity or natural gas

080820

3.3.2.1 Green Energy Cities: USChicago, ILGoal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15%Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgmt; 22% distributed generation;25% cogenerationSacramento, CAGoal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying REPortland, ORGoal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 201010% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green tagsAustin, TXGoal 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW by 2020050805

3.3.2.2 Green Energy Cities: InternationalReykjavik, Iceland (geothermal and hydro)Goal: Worlds first hydrogen city; whole country by 2050Shell Hydrogen: electrolysis hydrogen for local busesVancouver, Canada (hydro plus gas)Goal: emissions reduced by 20% compared to 1999 emissions90% RE now has 100-year plan Grand Prize for Urban SustainabilityBarcelona, Spain (nuclear is now 49%)Goal: reduce emissions by 20% compared to 1999 by increasing solar panel installationsSydney, Australia (coal, solar)Goals: Reduce coal use from 43% and oil use from 35% of total usage500 MW Singleton Solar Farms050805

3.4 Energy PlansPolls show the public wants the energy problems fixed; 76% want more oil drillingPresidential candidates had ignored energy problem, speaking in generalities and platitudes, but are now responding with plansPlans reflect their present core beliefs, perhaps, but change frequentlyPlans differ a lot! Ill show just one100127

3.4.1 The Pickens Plan www.pickensplan.comThe US pays out $700 Billion each year to foreign oil companies, and they buy the US with it (Chrysler Building to Abu Dhabi, Rockefeller Center by Japan, for example)Oil-man Boone Pickens is committing $58 million just to propose using massive wind farms from Texas to Canada to provide 22% of the utility grid power [owns part of 4 GW wind farm] Retracted plan due to cheaper oilPickens: Cant drill our way out of the problem, The market is not driven by speculation, US $1 M/day demand destruction (reduction) will be picked up by China Asks Feds to distribute by new electricity transmission corridorsThis change would free utility natural gas [$1.59/gallon equivalent gasoline price] to be compressed for use in 18-wheelers and cars; Honda sells the GX CNG car now; Honda FCX is the similar hydrogen versionCarl Pope, former Exec. Director, Sierra Club said, To put it plainly, T. Boone Pickens is out to save America100121

3.4.2 Al Gores PlanStop use of all fossil fuels by 2018 --- just 8 years now No coal, oil (gasoline & diesel), or natural gas used? Need ~76% fossil fuel replacement in ten years from what???? Could wind energy grow by ~12 GW by then?Nuclear power o.k.? No CO2 (Gore is really fighting global warming, thus supporting UN IPCC position)Environmental Impact Surveys alone might take 6 yearsEnviros and other special interest groups are fighting wind turbines, solar thermal, dams, etc. right nowNot in my backyard! NIMBYs abound! Plus CAVEs: Citizens Against Virtually Everything100125

3.4.3 US Federal Plans?Congress adjourned on vacation as Senator Pelosi blocked the energy bill coming to a vote; now says there might be a vote (politically)The House passed H.R. 6899, by a vote of 236 to 189 Alternative fuel pumps requiredOil drilling over 50 miles out where oil not likely, Renewable Energy Standard goals set at 15% by 2029 Most Democrats want conservation and renewables, no nuclear or coal plants (including coal to liquid conversion), 40 mpg or higher CAF standardsRepublicans want higher power levels including coal-to-liquids and nuclear, no CAF standard changeSenate wont pass HR6899 --- Impasse again!100125

3.4.4 Obamas PlanEliminate the need for oil from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 years [by 2018]"As president, as president, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power." Invest $150 billion for energy independence; perhaps nuclear power; double alternative energy in four years with $100 M fundingReduce US electricity demand [it keeps going up] by 15% in 2019 and modernize the utility gridGive every working family $1000 and take it from oil company excessive profits [8.4%]; Google had 25%Give consumers $7000 credit to buy fuel efficient car (was $4000)(I just did; do I get a rebate or just pay for the others in my taxes?)Drill offshore ok if part of a larger strategyGive $4 billion loans and credits to US car plants; put 1 million 150-mpg PHEVs on roads within six yearsSell oil from SPO to lower prices, replacing high quality oil with low quality heavy oil [heavy oil is worth less]Check tire air pressures; [not a plan, but a good idea]100125

3.4.5 McCains Lexington PlanMake US energy independent by 2025The Lexington plan of energy independence by 2025 has expanded oil production (not in ANWR) by drilling offshore (leave up to states), $2B for clean coal [thinks coal is renewable!]Build 45 more nuclear plants by 2030; 70k more jobsAccelerate alternative energy technology; wind, solar, tide, and biofuelsBuild hybrid flex-fuel cars (senses fuel mix & adjusts)$300 million prize for improved electric car batterySuspend SPR purchases during high prices. Suspend 18.4/gal gas and 24.4/gal. diesel tax.080820http://www.johnmccain.com//Informing/Issues/17671aa4-2fe8-4008-859f-0ef1468e96f4.htm

3.4.6 Gang of 10 Bipartisan PlanThis bipartisan group of Congress (5 D + 5 R), dismayed by bickering and inaction, planned a way to try to get around the deadlock; a compromise to get something startedAllow drilling in eastern Gulf of Mexico Continue oil company tax breaks Support nuclear energy Fund alternative fuel with $20 billion. Provide tax credits for manufacture and purchase of alternative-fuel energy vehicles.080817

3.4.7 The Paris Hilton Plan!Limited drilling offshore with strict environmental oversightCreate tax incentives to get Detroit to make electric and hybrid carsThat way, the offshore drilling carries us until the new technologies kick in, which will then create new jobs and energy independence Energy crisis solved!080907Ref: Christian Science Monitor[Just trying to be comprehensive here --- work with me!]

4. Human Interactions, Needs, & WantsEnergy used is affected by what people wantMore so, by what voters tell Congress they wantNeeds are required for life: air (minutes), water (day), food (4 days), heating/cooling (week), shelter (weeks) Wants are required for satisfaction, pride, self-indulgence, etc.: a yacht, a third home, a stretch Hummer limousine, a 64-ounce steak, a 100-foot houseboat, etc.080907

4.1 Is Saving Your Own Money a Good Thing to Do?Saving energy isnt seen as important, but not being taken is! Dont be a gullible, easy target!A change of viewpoint can persuade people to change what they buyDeeply held Core values arent easily changed by rantingMost people dont think about energy prices until its a problem to themHigh gasoline prices are quickly changing that viewpointLife cycle costing is unknown to most peopleNew cars are advertised by monthly payments, not price!Others are concerned about how much they can borrowConservation is only a virtue according to Vice Pres. Dick Cheney -- What do we know? Id say it saves money!080820

4.2 Surfeit and Waste: What about Our Grandchildren?Consider the ethics of using up natural resources that our grandchildren, etc. may need They might not live long enough to discover substitutesIf we waste resources, we unnecessarily use what might bridge the gap to a sustainable societyIf bountiful fossil fuels are required to make renewable energy converters, burning those fuels now will mean new RE converters must be made using RE Can you imagine smelting iron using RE? Perhaps use concentrated solar thermal melt systems?080820

4.3 Cornucopians vs. CassandrasCornucopians believe that needs will always be provided forJust in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!Cassandras believe that we are doomed, doomed, doomed!No matter how we try, we cant fight these oncoming events that will be our undoingWe dont have to choose one of these philosophies!080907

4.3.1 Cornucopians vs. CassandrasCornucopians believe that needs and wants will always be provided forJust in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!The Horn of Plenty is always full to overflowing!Dont worry, be happy!If it feels good, do it! --- Nike trademark080907http://desktoppub.about.com/

4.3.2 The Horn of Plenty Shall Always ProvideAs European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or betterSteam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower, electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, telephone, automobiles, airplanes, television, computers, internet, etc.New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches080820http://desktoppub.about.com/

4.3.3 Cornucopians vs. CassandrasCassandras shout that We are doomed, and no one will listen to them!Cassandra (mythic legend) was loved by Apollo (sun god) but she spurned him; he punished her by making her unbelievable to everyoneNo matter how we try, we cant fight these oncoming events that will be our undoing and yet no one believes usWoe is me!Weve told you for years that youre doing the wrong thing! Its too late anyway Me: What should we do instead? No answer . . . 080817

4.3.4 The Sky is Falling: What Shall We Do?What Shall We Do?The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resourcesDeath, famine, war, and pestilence would resultAn apocalyptic result(Its been postponed so far!)1960 Scary movie: No Blade of GrassA group of economists, scientists, and doomsayers examine the outlookRunningOnEmpty.comDieOff.comCaution: these sites may not be suitable for children or adults!Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency080907http://www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass.jpg

4.4 Agendas, Slants, & ScamsAgendas (often are kept for the faithful)Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being killedLikes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered species to be discovered Oh! look there!; cant clear this!SlantsCarefully selects info to push the internal message; rejects and discredits the opposite viewSelects minor views of opponents and trumpets themScamsVenture capital gatherers with small chance of successSolicitations of public donations with 70% going to staff salariesCar runs on water!080907

4.5 Direct Effects Upon ConsumersHigh energy bills stretch budgets as prices riseElectricity (affecting price of products bought)Gasoline Natural Gas or heating oilHigh gasoline price definition:Too high if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but not high if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mpg SUVs and trucks)The Time magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be overPublic thinks this is a coming issue when its pastSmart money is bailing out; dont rush in080907

4.6 Lifestyle Changes Needed!Practice energy conservation and save your money for fun purchases (and investments for retirement)Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for other needed/wanted usesThink of the marginal utility of supersizing your lifeLess quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow your money to be used for other things you really wantWould you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole watermelon? Isnt there a limit to wants?Your time may be far more valuable than your moneyLive close to where you work so you dont waste your life stuck in traffic Fifteen-minute ruleWork at what you would do for free, but dont tell your boss!100127

4.7 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now?People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel pricesThose that we dont know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great7grandchildren, worse yetWhat we do today affects future generations --- shouldnt we care? (Is it really All about ME!)A surging world population will fight to get or control energy sources, leading to wars far worse than IraqPeople of developing countries will crave to live as those do in the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure this cravingEffect of global TV influences and makes people aware of distant consumption trends; I want to live like those people in those TV shows! 080820

5. TransportationRowing, animal power, human powerWind, sailing ships, airplanesWood, coal, diesel and gasoline fuelsElectricity and motors

080822This steam car was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, shown bumping a wall in Paris Oops!http://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/cars/carhist.htm

5.1 Transportation Energy UsagePetroleum fuels predominateCosts determined the development and selection of primary fuelsLoss of petroleum can depress the economy for years080820http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html

5.1.1 Energy ShortagesIn 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against EgyptGasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at gasoline pumps, and impatient drivers assaulting each otherPrices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-odd fill-up daysTrans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (early enviro protest claimed animals would be afraid; similarity to ANWR claims)Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold SchwarzeneggerBlackouts get the voters attention faster than pleas!Shortages or total outages are perceived very differently by the public than blackouts from equipment failures080820

5.1.2 Fuel Prices from EERE in May 2008080815http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw526.html

5.1.3 Constant $ Gasoline in 2005 Adjusted price has now exceeded the 2000 peak080822http://ncga.fhdigital.com/sitefiles/1000/gas_graph.jpg

5.1.3.1 Price versus Utility?080915

5.1.4 Daily US Commuting DistanceSOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Omnibus Household Survey. Aggregated data cover activities for the month prior to the survey. 08080593% of commuters drive less than 35miles

5.2 Clean Cities CoalitionThe Department of Energy (DOE) founded the Clean Cities Coalition to use alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to reduce air pollution in city nonattainment areasAFVs dont use conventional fuelsBiofuels, electricity, CNG, hydrogen, etc.There are US state and local chapters; the Space Coast Clean Cities Coalition covers Brevard County, Florida and six other counties 080820

5.3 Alternative Fuel VehiclesAFVs dont use gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, the conventional fuels An early version was the 1908 Bishop electric car Jay Leno owns and drives oneIn 1957, I saw propane forklift trucks inside a huge Frigidaire plant where I was a co-op student The fumes were claimed to be clean Western states have conversions of pickup trucks to start on gasoline and run on propane080820

5.3. Alternative Fuel Vehicles This 2007 Rally was from the Florida Solar Energy Center (Cocoa) to Florida Techs Panther Plaza in Melbourne

5.3.1 Solar Challenge RallyDOE started Sunrayce rallies to mirror the World Solar Challenge Races in AustraliaLater, Sunrayce was renamed the American Solar Challenge, and adding Canada, it became the North American Solar ChallengeIn 2008, University of Michigans Continuum won on the Dallas to Calgary route0808202007, Dutch Nuna won!

5.3.1.1 Florida Tech Solar CarStarted at Disney Lake Buena Vista, FLEleven day trip with overnight stopsChase van with a warning sign accompanied the car The van also read out the solar car performance data by radio linkTwo-way radio provided voice communicationsEnded at GM Tech Center, Warren, MIA 1001211990 Sunrayce Solar RaceMap by Dorian West, 1990

5.3.1.1 Florida Tech at the 1990 SunrayceThis car was cosmetically restored in 2007, but is no longer operationalThe Sunshine Special originally required $225,000 in funding080820

5.3.1.2 Florida Techs Racing Electric VehicleRacing Electric Vehicle, 10/07/2007080806

5.3.1.2 2007 Racing Electric Vehicle (REV)Formula Lightning autocross racerTouchscreen steering wheelBattery monitoring comm

5.3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs)PHEVs have a large battery that is charged by 120Vac utility power 15A outlet anywhereThere is also a small engine-alternator that can charge the battery using a fuel like gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), or biofuelThe engine only burns fuel if the voltage falls too low and the battery needs chargingEstimated battery-only range might be 40 to 100 miles a day between nighttime chargesCleanliness depends on most local utility source080820

5.3.2.1 A Plug-in PriusThird-party kits available for changing a Prius to a PHEV (voids factory warranty?) Charger uses 120Vac

5.3.3 1974-1983 Sebring CiticarSebring Vanguard company in FloridaResponse to 1973 gasoline crisis met by battery car with fiberglass body080820http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar

5.3.4 EV1: Who Killed that Car? The GM EV1 was produced to meet California emission standards as a plug-in battery car No hybridization or charging engine, so watch your battery voltage Cars were primarily leased except for a dealer mistake where actual sales occurred When California rules changed, the leased cars were recalled and smashed at a GM proving grounds in Arizona to avoid future service problems The remaining EV1s are engineering history and displayed at shows by those few ownersSee the DVD movie: Who Killed the Electric Car?080820

5.3.4 Electric Car plus a Pusher080822

5.3.5 Tesla Racer The Tesla Racer is all electric, sporty, and pricey (at first)080820Photo by Tesla Motors

5.3.6 GM Volt --- an Electric Car080820Introductory GM Volt and Vice Chairman Bob LutzPhoto by Jeffrey Sauger, GM Corp.

5.3.7 Hydrogen CarsHydrogen-fueled cars are similar to compressed natural gas (CNG) carsHydrogen is an energy carrier like electricity and must be madeTank pressures are ~6,000 to 10,000 psi100127Photo, F. Leslie, 2006Present prototypes cost ~$1 million; fuel costs extra! This is the Progress Energy car I requested for the Sustainability Forum at Olin Life Sciences

5.4 TrainsBiodiesel has cleaner emissions; easy changeoverElectric trains require expensive trackside or overhead conductors for direct connectionLarge battery cars might supply energy for the motors and could be quickly changed at stops for fully charged unitsPresent diesels dump braking power into cab-top resistors (no batteries), but with attached battery cars, recharging is economicalA hybrid version would carry engine-alternators for recharging using CNG, biodiesel, or perhaps H2The engine-alternators for recharging would stay in the locomotive so it could move independently from the battery car080822www.trainweb.org/gensets/brookville/bmex/259a.jpg

5.5 AirplanesAirplanes must carry nonlead (too heavy) batteries or fuel cells sufficient to reach the next airport or use recharging enginesHydrogen high-pressure flask size may restrict the distance that can be traveled with fuel cellsHybrid aircraft might use fuel to reach altitude and then change to electric motors or fuel cells to sustain altitude at a lesser speed100125

5.6 ShipsShips are now having diesel engines converted to use natural gasAn existing SkySails wind kite design can partially pull the ship to reduce fuel usageHull drag efficiency offers a 3% cost savingsFlorida Tech ocean engineering students are designing a model hull with dimples like a golf ball to reduce drag about 3% (2008)080822

6. Future of Long-Term Energy ForecastsEnergy needed depends upon how much energy is being used, how efficiently, and whereAs other countries develop large energy uses, they increase the demands, and price increasesWorldwide problems can be solved locallyChina coal pollution by mercury reaches the US West Coast, but US actions can only affect the total pollutionEnergy growth curves show high consumer demands that must be accommodated by utility planning and construction; some groups say the public must just use less, a hard sellEnviro quote: I wont be happy until gasoline costs $10 to $15 per gallon! from a Sierra Club email100125

6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumerIn some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closedThese changes will be primarily politically drivenFossil fuel plants will become expensive to operate (cap-and-trade) and ratepayer prices will increaseCars will tend to be hybrids using advanced batteries and small recharging engines of perhaps 30 hpTractors for trailers may run on natural gas from large tanks behind the cab (Pickens Plan)Air travel will decline, with trains substituting100127

6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)Crude OilPrices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market $147/bbl on 7/11/08, then $106 on 9/5/08; perhaps $200 by January, 2009; perhaps $100 by January, 2011?GasolinePrices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your lifetimes, and not due to taxes as in Europe!ElectricityBecomes more diverse, with growing renewables used, as fossil fuel becomes expensive beyond belief or affordingCO2 capture increases price (51% now from coal)Public TransportationAircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require frequent landing to refuel limited capacity energy tanksTrains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for milesTrucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially bus100125

6.2 Energy Competition by NationsChina and India have large populations that will want and buy more energy, driving the price upTata company of India selling a $2500 carThe other developing nations will do the same, but with less effect at firstRussia has large oil and natural gas resources to control world markets for national powerThe US President and Congress cant set the World crude oil price, but the massive effect of the public shifting their demand willThe US competes on the world energy market100125

6.3 Future of EnergyThe transition of energy from conventional, fossil fuels to cleaner renewables will take decades --- natural gas will survive for yearsAl Gore, global warming advocate pushes for no fossil fuels in the next 8 years, but renewables, conservation, and efficiency are still developing and must change from ~4% to over 90% in a short timeElectrical grid must change to carry renewable energy from resource to load centers (cities) Rechargeable vehicles are as clean as the utility source, which will shift from coal to renewables due to politics, ideology, and good practices100125

6.3.1 Future of Renewable EnergyWind power continues to grow at ~30% - 40% per yearAs turbines become more widespread, the pushback against them fadesSolar energy responds to cheaper solar modules and government subsidiesGeothermal heat pumps operate more efficiently and standard heat pumps have fittings for adding a ground source/sink loopBiofuels develop at commercial levels, and engines are redesigned to accept these fuelsHydroelectric systems are added at the

6.3.2 Future of Renewable EnergyOcean tidal, wave and current energy develops for coastal areasCurrent energy devices provide technology for river and some stream energy extractionDistributed energy from rooftop solar water and electrical systems reduce need for transmission line installationsNuclear fission spent fuel is recycled to make additional fuel (not really a renewable)Nuclear fusion remains a 30-year technology100127

ConclusionsHumans must have air, water, food, and energyFossil fuel pollution may increase Green House Effect believed to cause global warmingFuture cars likely will be plug-in hybrids running occasionally on CNG, bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips; design options based upon areaTrains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips (price, convenience, and harassment factor)Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the Worlds energy needs, but costs moreCost decreases plus fossil fuels increase in priceEconomics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost --- this attitude must change!100127

ConclusionIncreasing oil, natural gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur How will we choose to do it?080820

080710Thank you!

Questions? ? ?My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie for presentationsRoberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htmDMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts

References: BooksBoyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. Oxford, 2007Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.7940973.Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.45Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.312136Srensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88.100127

References: Websites, etc.http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.htmlawea-windnet@yahoogroups.com. Wind Energy elistawea-wind-home@yahoogroups.com. Wind energy home powersite elistgeothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energymailto:energyresources@egroups.com rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups.com. Elist for wind energy experimenterswww.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon populationwww.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionwww.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systemstelosnet.com/wind/20th.htmlwww.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22solstice.crest.org/dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.htmlhttp://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htmhttp://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm

080811 \RECallWebsite\ . . \ .ClassPPT\RE27Future of Energy[was FutureTrends]

Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.Exercise is good, but theyre walking for a different reason.Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.Renewables face economic challenges.Renewables face economic challenges.Renewables face economic challenges.Renewables face economic challenges.Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.We run out of cheap fuel, not all fuel.Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.Nonrenewable energies come from combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas. Their creation took millions of years, and we are using it faster than it was produced and faster than it is being created.Renewable energies come from the sun. Collection is from natural occurrences. While the energy is free, it costs money to collect it.Nuclear and geothermal energies arent renewable but are treated that way since the quantity is so large.